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Main Slate Rundown 📝

We’ve officially hit the double-digit mark on the schedule as Week 10 rolls in! With the Bengals, Cowboys, Chiefs, and Texans all on bye, we’re working with a 10-game Sunday main slate. There’s plenty to get excited about, too — five games carry totals over 48 points, so we should be in for a fun, high-scoring slate. Let’s dig in and find some edges. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report 🌦️

• NO at CAR (1:00 ET, 38.5 O/U): Sustained winds around 15 mph with 25 mph gusts. Most plays won’t be affected, aside from some longer kicks and passes.

• BUF at MIA (1:00 ET, 50.5 O/U): Chance for some rain.

• CLE at NYJ (1:00 ET, 37.5 O/U): Fairly overcast with some sprinkles or light showers possible. Winds around 10 mph.

• NYG at CHI (1:00 ET, 47.5 O/U): 15-20 mph sustained winds with 30 mph gusts. Longer kicks and deep passes may be affected.

• NE at TB (1:00 ET, 48.5 O/U): Like Miami, there will be a chance for some rain. Not a major concern.

• DET at WAS (4:25 ET, 49.5 O/U): Another spot where rain is possible.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $7k, FD: $9.2k | at MIA

Allen comes off a huge performance against the Chiefs -- his best outing since week one -- and now draws the Dolphins, who have struggled against both the pass (30th in DVOA) and the run (8th most rushing yards allowed to QBs) this season. Allen combines elite passing and rushing upside, and with the Bills implied for 30 points (highest on the slate), he’s in line for another big outing. After showing he can carry a slate, Allen is an easy top target at QB this week.

JJ McCarthy, MIN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $7.1k | vs. BAL

If you’re not looking to spend up at QB, there are certainly some appealing value options to choose from. McCarthy didn’t rack up a ton of yardage in week nine, but he made the big plays when they were needed en route to the upset win over the Lions, and he combined for three total TDs (two passing/one rushing).  His ability to contribute with his legs makes him an intriguing DFS option at these price points, and the matchup is also appealing. The Ravens’ defense has been improving in recent weeks, but they’re still allowing 26.1 FPPG to QBs when playing on the road this season.

Jacoby Brissett, ARI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $6.9k | at SEA

With Kyler Murray going on IR (some are calling it the most obvious “soft benching” we’ve seen this season), Brissett will be the Cards’ starting QB for the foreseeable future. Brissett has been rock-solid in all three of his starts, and he’s too cheap to ignore on this slate, especially at his $4,600 tag on DraftKings. He’s thrown multiple touchdowns in all three starts and adds just enough rushing upside to be a viable dual-threat. After a strong showing against the Cowboys, he draws the Seahawks, who force QBs to throw plenty (6th-highest opponent PassPlay% at 62.3%), giving him a chance for another quality fantasy outing.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

James Cook III, BUF | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.2k | at MIA

With QB Josh Allen’s lethality with his legs, and other Bills RBs mixing in semi-regularly, Cook doesn’t necessarily have a stranglehold on his team’s rush attempts, but he has still handled 19.1 carries/gm, which is tough to complain about. He dominated the Dolphins in their first meeting this season, rushing for over 100 yards and a touchdown while tacking on a few receptions. Miami has surrendered plenty of big performances to opposing RBs throughout this season, and has allowed the 6th-most FPPG to RBs overall. With the Bills favored by nearly 10 points and a 30.0 implied team total, Cook is set up for another productive outing in what should be a positive game script.

Quinshon Judkins, CLE | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.6k | at NYJ

Judkins has been the Browns’ clear lead back, handling 80% of the team’s carries since week three. The Jets have been vulnerable against the run, heading into this game, allowing 5.2 YPC and the 8th-most FPPG to RBs over their last four games. With the Browns in rarified air this week, stepping in as slight favorites, Judkins should see plenty of touches and a strong opportunity for production. He did have to overcome a shoulder injury that he sustained in the Browns’ last game in week eight, but the week nine bye came at a good time, and Judkins has since shed his previous injury designation.

Rico Dowdle, CAR | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8k | vs. NO

After some undeniable performances, Dowdle has taken over as the Panthers’ lead back, handling 74% of offensive snaps and 80% of carries in week nine, and he responded with 130 rushing yards and two touchdowns versus a stout Packers defensive front. Fellow Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard was held to just five touches on 13 total snaps (22% snap%). So, when HC Dave Canales said that Dowdle would be the lead back moving forward, it ended up not being just “coach speak.” Dowdle has been highly efficient this season, averaging an impressive 5.6 yards per carry (ranks 3rd among NFL RBs), and is up to nearly 6.7 YPC in games where he has handled a heavy workload. The Panthers’ strong run-blocking line, which is 6th in the NFL in adjusted line yards, gives Dowdle a solid foundation to keep producing. This week, Carolina is a 5.5-point home favorite over the 1-8 Saints, and some windy conditions during this game should place more of a focus on the ground attack. Overall, Dowdle’s combination of volume, efficiency, and matchup makes him an attractive option on this slate.

TreVeyon Henderson, NE | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.9k | at TB

With Rhamondre Stevenson out again, Henderson should see a bigger workload against the Buccaneers. He played 75% of offensive snaps last week and racked up a 19% Target%, his highest since week one. Tampa Bay has been tough against the run (5th in rush DVOA) but weak against receiving backs -- allowing 5.8 rec/gm and 58.3 rec YPG to RBs -- giving Henderson a chance to contribute in the passing game. At his reasonable price points and low projected ownership, he’s a strong tournament option if his workload aligns with the usage he saw last week.

David Montgomery, DET | DK: $5k, FD: $6.1k | at WAS

Montgomery hasn’t experienced the same level of success as last season, but he’s still an important part of this offense and is at, or near, season lows in DFS pricing. Monty has seen his role increase lately, handling 42 and 55% of the Lions’ carries over the past two games, respectively. This week, Detroit faces the Commanders with a 29.0 implied team total, and they are eight-point road favorites, setting up a potentially strong game script for the Lions’ one-two backfield punch of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. For what it’s worth, Montgomery is also an even money bet to find the endzone this Sunday. He has shown he can deliver big games, topping 30 DKFP points earlier this season, and he should be involved both on the ground and a bit in the passing game.

Note: If D’Andre Swift (groin/questionable) is out again this week, Kyle Monangai (DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.5k) will be a strong RB option once again. He racked up 198 scrimmage yards on 29 touches against the Bengals last week and would be in another smash spot against the Giants, who are dead last in rush DVOA.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.5k | vs. ARI

JSN has been unstoppable this season, posting at least 100 receiving yards in six of eight games and topping 20 PPR points in all but one outing. He leads the league in both target share (38.2% Target%) and airyard share (51.2% AirYard%), and has racked up huge yardage on every type of route. Touchdowns haven’t been plentiful -- just four on the year -- but his volume and efficiency give him elite floor and ceiling. He draws the Cardinals this week, which may not be an incredible matchup (the first game vs. ARI was his lone “down” performance this season), but Arizona has allowed the 6th-most YPG to WR1s this season. Regardless, JSN has been the most matchup-proof WR in the NFL this year.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.3k | at WAS

Just below JSN is another stud WR to consider in Amon-Ra St. Brown. ARSB has commanded a 38% Target% over the past four games, and he’s had some absolutely elite redzone usage, with a 45.2% RedZone Target% and seven TDs on the season. Detroit draws the struggling Commanders in Week 10, and it’s a spot that ARSB could thrive in. He has run half of his routes out of the slot, which will match him up against Commanders’ slot CB Mike Sainristil for much of this game. Saintristil and the Commanders have allowed the 8th most FPPG to slot WRs this season, and the 3rd most FPPG to WRs overall across their last four games. St. Brown’s combination of volume, touchdown equity, and consistent floor makes him another prime spend-up this Sunday.

Stefon Diggs, NE | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.2k | at TB

Diggs remains underpriced, particularly on FanDuel, where he’s been a bargain throughout the season. He’s still not playing a full complement of snaps post-ACL tear (55% snap% this season), but when he’s out there, he’s clearly the Patriots’ top option with targets on 24% of his routes. With Kayshon Boutte (hamstring/out) sidelined for the first time this season and Tampa Bay’s defense typically funneling production through the air, Diggs should see a nice amount of usage this week in a game with plenty of shootout potential (48.5 O/U, NE +2.5).

Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.6k | at SEA

Harrison finally showed off some upside with Jacoby Brissett under center last week, posting seven catches for 96 yards and a touchdown on a 36% target share. He’s been limited with Kyler Murray at QB, but Brissett’s competent and pass-heavy approach could continue to boost MHJ’s volume. The Seahawks’ defense has had a pass funnel tendency. They’ve been outstanding against the run, which has led to a high percentage of opponent plays to come through the air. Harrison has yet to live up to the amount of hype he had coming out of college, but perhaps Brissett is the guy who can take his game to the next level.

Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6k | at CHI

Giants’ rookie QB Jaxson Dart has thoroughly impressed since taking over, and he’s been one of the best QBs in fantasy scoring across his six starts. Unfortunately, the Giants are thin on viable offensive weapons due to major injuries to WR Malik Nabers and RB Cam Skattebo. Wan’Dale Robinson has stepped in as the Giants’ top receiver out of necessity, and he has commanded an excellent 30.1% Target% over the last four games. Nearly 70% of his routes have come out of the slot. That is a plus this week as the Bears have allowed the 3rd-most FPPG to slot WRs this season. Winds could also be an issue in Chicago on Sunday, which may put a further emphasis on the short-to-intermediate passing game. Robinson owns an 8.7-yard aDOT this season, so the short-to-intermediate passing game is where he thrives.

Tez Johnson, TB | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. NE

With Chris Godwin ruled out again, Mike Evans sidelined potentially for the remainder of the regular season, and Jalen McMillan yet to make his season debut, Tez Johnson has stepped into a featured role in Tampa Bay’s passing game. He saw a season-high 26% target share last week despite modest production, catching five of six targets for 43 yards. The Bucs will likely have to lean on the pass again versus New England’s elite run defense, especially with Bucky Irving still out. The Pats have ranked a stout 4th in rush DVOA but are near the bottom of the league, at 28th, in pass DVOA. That sets up Johnson as an appealing salary-saver, particularly on DraftKings, where his $4,500 tag makes him one of the better cheap WR options on the slate.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Trey McBride, ARI | DK: $6k, FD: $7k | at SEA

McBride continues to be the safest bet at the TE position week in and week out, offering an elite blend of usage, consistency, and scoring upside. He leads all TEs with a 28.9% Target% and 29% AirYard%, producing 16.2 PPR FPPG despite playing in a below-average Cardinals offense. His numbers have been even stronger with Jacoby Brissett under center — a 32.4% target share and four touchdowns over the past three games. This week’s matchup vs. Seattle sets up well for another big outing. As discussed already, the Seahawks have been one of the league’s biggest pass funnels, and they haven’t been particularly stout versus TEs, checking in at 24th in TE DVOA and allowing the 6th-most adjusted FPPG to the position. With Brissett expected to throw often once again, McBride projects as the safest and most reliable TE option on the slate.

Dalton Kincaid, BUF | DK: $4.3k, FD: $6.2k | at MIA

Three players in the entire NFL are averaging over three yards per route run -- Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4.6 YPRR), Puka Nacua (3.5 YPRR), and Dalton Kincaid (3.1 YPRR). The Bills haven’t had to constantly air it out this season, but Kincaid has arguably been their most effective receiving weapon and has several “spike weeks” with 18+ PPR points in three of his last five games. If the Dolphins can force the Bills’ offense to stay aggressive for most of this game, Kincaid is in an outstanding spot. The Dolphins chime in at 30th in TE DVOA and have allowed 72.5 YPG, 7.5 rec/gm, 0.8 TDs/gm, and the 6th-most FPPG to the TE position over their last four games.

Mark Andrews, BAL | DK: $3.4k, FD: $6k | at MIN

More of a DraftKings play here, given the enticing $3,400 price point. Andrews remains one of the league’s premier touchdown threats at tight end, even with his snaps being split more evenly with Isaiah Likely nowadays. He’s coming off a multi-TD game in week nine, which was his second two-TD game this season, and Andrews continues to be a go-to target for Lamar Jackson when the Ravens are deep in the redzone. While his overall route volume is lower than it used to be, his efficiency near the goal line keeps him firmly in play. The Vikings have struggled to contain tight ends lately, allowing the 5th-most FPPG and 1.0 TDs/gm to TEs over their last four. Andrews doesn’t need much volume to pay off -- a single big drive could make him a strong value play (on DraftKings) in Week 10.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Detroit Lions | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.1k | at WAS

Mid-Range D/ST (DraftKings Preferred): Houston Texans | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.9k | vs. JAX

Value D/ST: Arizona Cardinals | DK: $2.2k, FD: $3.1k | at SEA

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!