Top Sunday NFL DFS Plays Week #10 | Maximizing Main Slate Match-Ups!

Top DFS Plays & Props for Sunday's NFL Main Slate Action!

Author

Ryan Humphries
November 11, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 📝

The NFL regular season calendar officially cracks double digits with week 10 hitting the docket. Only four teams are on bye this week but the list includes some top-flight offenses that we’ll be missing out on for this Sunday’s slate -- the Chiefs, Eagles, Dolphins… and Rams. So, we’ll perhaps have to get a bit more creative and take some risks on some less prolific offenses for this 10-game main slate. Sure, it’s not the sexiest of slates, but we should have some entertaining games to look forward to tomorrow. Six games own a spread of ≤ 3.5 points and there are also four games with some high-ish scoring potential with a ≥ 44.5 over/under.

Before we get into the football tidbits, I’d like to wish a happy Veterans Day to all of the military veterans out there. Your service is appreciated!

Best of luck this week!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

  • SF @ JAX: Fairly windy here with 10-15 mph sustained winds and 25+ mph gusts. Not a massive impact but the deep passing games get a downgrade, and short-to-intermediate passing games get an upgrade.

  • TEN @ TB: Chance for rain late in the game.

  • WAS @ SEA: Rain is possible, though it may hold off until after the game. Not a significant concern.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.2k | vs. HOU

Burrow could have checked in as the most expensive QB on this slate and it wouldn’t have been a major surprise. Instead, he’s the 4th most expensive QB on DraftKings and 3rd most expensive on FanDuel. Burrow looks to be well past the calf injury that hampered him in the early goings this season and, since week five, he leads the NFL with a 75.8% completion% and 111.2 passer rating. In that four-game stretch, he’s averaging 23.8 DKFP/22.3 FDFP and 2.5 pass TDs/gm. There is some definite shootout potential in this game (47 O/U, 2nd highest on the slate) as Burrow and the Bengals take on CJ Stroud and the Texans. The Texans can be beaten through the air as they rank 26th in pass DVOA and have allowed 295.5 pass YPG over their last four games. Burrow won’t have WR Tee Higgins (hamstring/out) at his disposal this Sunday and star WR Ja’Marr Chase (back/questionable) is also a little iffy. I would expect Chase to be available after logging some limited practices to end the week so Burrow should have most of his receiving corps intact. The Bengals also rank 2nd on the slate with a 26.8 implied team total.

Kyler Murray, ARI | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.5k | vs. ATL

If you’re feeling a little bold, Kyler Murray will be a worthy GPP QB option out of the mid-range. He’ll be making his season debut following a torn ACL suffered 11 months ago in week 14 of last season. He may not offer up his typical rushing upside in his first game back and there will certainly be a little rust he’ll need to shake off. That said, Murray does draw a comfortable match-up for his 2023 debut. The Falcons have been a pass funnel this season, ranking 9th in rush DVOA but 28th in pass DVOA. In their last four games, Atlanta is allowing 2.5 pass TDs/gm, 31.8 rush YPG to QBs, and 23.2 FPPG to QBs. If he faces little-to-no restrictions, specifically as a running threat, Murray offers up more upside than the majority of QBs on this slate, regardless of DFS pricing. He’s also been a bit better at home in his career where he has averaged +7.1% more FPPG.

 

Will Levis, TEN | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.8k | @ TB

The Bucs' secondary just got annihilated by CJ Stroud a week ago for an NFL rookie record 470 passing yards and five TDs. Three of the last four QBs the Bucs have faced have scored at least 25.42 FP and QBs are completing 72.8% of their passes against Tampa Bay over the last four games. Will Levis had a breakout NFL debut against the Falcons in week eight, throwing for 238 yards and four touchdowns. He came back down to earth against stiffer competition versus the Steelers (7th in pass DVOA) in week nine. But this looks to be about as strong of a bounce-back spot as any and the Titans are coming in off of the “mini bye” with 10 days between games. If you’re spending down at QB, Levis will be a very appealing DFS option.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.5k | @ JAX

The 49ers are fresh off of their bye and CMC will once again represent a high-floor spend-up option as he looks to extend his touchdown streak to 18 consecutive games! It’s an interesting spot because the Jags' run defense has been extremely stingy. They rank 4th in rush DVOA and have allowed just 56.1 rush YPG to RBs this season. However, they have allowed the 2nd most receptions to RBs this season, including 9.0 receptions/gm to RBs over their last four contests. That sounds like Christian McCaffrey’s music to me, particularly when you factor in this being a windy game where the short-to-intermediate passing game may be emphasized. There is enough value on the board this week to make the CMC luxury play very doable.

 

Travis Etienne, JAX | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.4k | vs. SF

We’ll see two stud RBs go at it in this game, both on the heels of their bye week, and it wouldn’t be a bad idea to go heavy exposure on either guy or perhaps roll them out together in the same lineup. ETN has been on an absolute tear, averaging 27.8 DKFP/25.5 FDFP per game over the last four contests, which includes seven touchdowns and 23.8 touches/gm. While they haven’t surrendered consistent production to RBs, the 49ers can be beaten on the ground based on their poor 25th rush DVOA ranking. I also think it’s worth pointing out that, despite blitzing at the 3rd lowest rate in the NFL (20.1% blitz%), the 49ers have applied QB pressure on 25.0% of QB dropbacks (10th highest pressure%). Their pass rush will be even more prolific with the addition of DE Chase Young ahead of the trade deadline back on October 31st. This could lead to plenty of check-downs and dump-offs to Etienne in the passing game. Either way, the volume will be there for ETN and it’s a sneaky good match-up that many folks will avoid simply because “49ers D = scary” when, in reality, it is a beatable defense overall, particularly on the ground.

Joe Mixon, CIN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.7k | vs. HOU

Mixon doesn’t rip off many explosive plays these days but the volume has been super steady and he ranks 8th among NFL RBs with 126 carries on the season. He is averaging 20.6 touches/gm L4Games and he has played at least 70% of the snaps in all but one game this season. With Tee Higgins sidelined for this game and Ja’Marr Chase questionable to play, Mixon could see an uptick in targets. The Texans are not a smash match-up for RBs, but they did just give up 119 total yards and two touchdowns to Rachaad White last week. I’d place Mixon and White in the same general tier when it comes to RB skill rankings, with Mixon being the better of the two. The Bengals are also -6.5 home favorites in this one, so a positive game script could be in the cards for Mixon as well.

 

Bijan Robinson, ATL | DK: $6k, FD: $6.6k | @ ARI

We can all agree that the Falcons are JUST. THE. WORST. when it comes to offensive player utilization which is, indeed, offensive. Bijan is a mega talent but the Falcons have allowed Tyler Allgeier to out-carry him 26-9 in the redzone. Bijan’s utilization is frustrating to no end but he’s too cheap to completely ignore at this point and, even if the redzone usage remains dormant, he can always break a big play at any time. Bijan also ranks 5th among NFL RBs in target% and 4th in yards before contact per attempt. This will be a stellar match-up against a Cardinals run defense that ranks 30th in rush DVOA and has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to the RB position this season.

 

Jaylen Warren, PIT | DK: $5k, FD: $5.6k | vs. GB

This is more of a DraftKings leverage play where Najee Harris (DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.5k) sets up as big-time chalk on this slate (21% pOwn%). While I don’t hate the Najee play on DraftKings, Warren has been more productive both as a runner (4.7 YPC to 3.8 YPC for Harris) and as a receiver (29 receptions & 7.2 YPR to 15 receptions & 6.7 YPR for Harris). Both RBs are playing around half the snaps, but Harris has simply been the more-favored option in the redzone. The Packers have allowed the 8th most FPPG to RBs this season and they give up +26% more FPPG to RBs when on the road (last nine games). If the Steelers give Warren some well-deserved redzone work, a touchdown to go on top of his typical production as a runner/receiver could go a long way at these DFS salaries.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.3k | vs. HOU

Tyler Boyd, CIN | DK: $4.6k, FD: $6.2k | vs. HOU

Trenton Irwin, CIN | DK: $3k, FD: $4.8k | vs. HOU

We’ll give the top Bengals WRs a consolidated spotlight this week. We’ll of course need to make sure Chase (back/questionable) is active but, assuming he’s good to go, he’ll be in line for major target volume this Sunday. In the last three games with Tee Higgins (hamstring/out) either sidelined or playing <20% of the snaps, Chase has seen 19, 12, and 15 targets (41.3%, 34.2%, 45.6% target%) -- shout out to @GrahamBarfield on Twitter for this tidbit.

Boyd has brought in a touchdown in two of the last three games and will be a strong bet for 7-10 targets. He draws an advantageous match-up out of the slot, where he has run 88% of his routes -- the Texans have allowed the 5th most FPPG to slot WRs over the last eight weeks.

Irwin will step in as the WR3 and makes for an intriguing value play, particularly at the minimum $3,000 salary on DraftKings. When Higgins sat out in week five, Irwin logged a 76% snap% and caught 8-of-10 targets for 60 yards (14.0 DKFP). Another game with double-digit targets would be a bold prediction for Irwin this week, but he won’t have to do much to return value (on DK). If Chase is eventually ruled out, Irwin would be a near-lock in cash games, along with Boyd.

All of these guys are deserving of DFS attention on this slate and you can certainly play two, or even all three, in any Joe Burrow lineups.

 

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.6k | @ LAC

This game boasts a slate-high 48.5 over/under so I would be remiss to not spotlight any key player in this match-up. Amon-Ra St. Brown sets up as one of the best floor plays on the slate. He either has 12+ targets, a touchdown, or 100+ receiving yards in every game played this season. St. Brown lands in an excellent match-up as well. He runs around half of his routes out of the slot and spends 20% of his plays on the right perimeter. The Chargers have allowed the 6th most FPPG to slot WRs and THE most FPPG to RWRs. QB Jared Goff averaged +38.8% more FPPG in domed stadiums so, even though the Lions are on the road, their passing game should flourish versus the Chargers on Sunday.

DeAndre Hopkins, TEN | DK: $6k, FD: $7.1k | @ TB

If we’re predicting a bounce-back game for Titans’ rookie QB Will Levis this week, then Hopkins will also become a logical play. In the two games with Levis at QB, Hopkins has easily led the team with a 26.6% target% and 39.6% air yard%. Hopkins may face shadow coverage from Bucs’ CB Carlton Davis when he’s on the perimeter (Hopkins: 78% perimeter%), but it’s not a shadow match-up to fear. Davis has been awful this season, allowing 0.63 fantasy points per coverage snap, which ranks dead last among 178 qualified defenders (via Mike Clay, ESPN). Overall, the Bucs have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to WRs this season and the most FPPG over the last four weeks.

 

Tank Dell, HOU | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.4k | @ CIN

Noah Brown, HOU | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5.4k | @ CIN

Much like the Bengals WRs in this game, we’ll combine the Texans’ top wideouts into one spotlighted segment. Nico Collins (calf/out) will miss this week’s game which means his team-leading 20.4% target% and 28.3% air yard% will need to be distributed elsewhere. TE Dalton Schultz will likely pick up some of the slack as well, and we’ll get to him in the tight end section below, but Dell and Brown will be two primary benefactors of the Collins absence -- WR Robert Woods (foot/questionable) is also a little iffy for this game, though he’s currently expected to suit up after last playing in week six. If he can go, he’s a decent option at $4k (DK) and $5.3k (FD), but Dell and Brown would be the more favorable DFS options.

Dell will primarily run out on the perimeter and, while the Bengals have been solid on the boundaries for the season (11th fewest FPPG allowed to perimeter WRs), they have faltered in recent games, allowing the 5th most FPPG to perimeter WRs L4Weeks.

Brown has run out of the slot on 59% of routes and the Bengals have surrendered the 8th most FPPG to slot WRs on the season.

The Texans are +6.5 underdogs in this one so, if they’re forced into another pass-happy game script, it could be a big day for multiple Texans pass catchers with the runaway NFL rookie of the year candidate, CJ Stroud, at the helm.

Rondale Moore, ARI | DK: $3k, FD: $4.7k | vs. ATL

With Kyler Murray back in action, I believe Marquise Brown (DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.6k) will draw some DFS attention. I don’t hate that play by any means but Rondale Moore is an intriguing option, more so on DraftKings at a flat $3,000 salary. In the last two games that Moore and Murray played together (2022, weeks 8 and 9), Moore saw a combined 18 targets, 15 receptions, 161 yards, and a touchdown. Moore has played at least 65% of the snaps in all but one game this season and he could see a more solidified target share if WR Michael Wilson (shoulder/questionable) misses his second consecutive game. Moore has a 68% SlotRoute% on the season and the Falcons have allowed the 8th most FPPG to slot WRs L4Weeks.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Sam LaPorta, DET | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.5k | @ LAC

LaPorta may already be a top-five NFL tight end just eight games into his NFL career. He’s commanding 7.4 targets/gm this season and is second only to WR Amon-Ra St. Brown in team target share. The Chargers have been getting cooked by opposing TEs, allowing 8.8 receptions/gm and 95.0 YPG to the position over the last four weeks. LaPorta has averaged +64.9% more FPPG in domed stadiums this season. In what is poised as perhaps the biggest shootout of the day, LaPorta will have the potential to end the afternoon as the highest-scoring tight end on the slate.

 

Dalton Schultz, HOU | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.1k | @ CIN

Schultz was one of many Texans pass catchers who had a big game on the heels of CJ Stroud’s record-setting week nine performance. He caught 10-of-11 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown versus the Bucs last week. He now has a touchdown reception in four of the last five games and at least seven targets and 60+ yards receiving in three of the last four. Schultz has been a go-to option when the Texans get near the endzone and he leads all TEs on the slate with a 34.5% redzone target%. We’ll also love the match-up against the Bengals, who rank 30th in TE DVOA and have allowed THE most FPPG to TEs this season. Without Nico Collins available this Sunday, Schultz could realistically lead the team in targets and receptions, but he should be no lower than third in the pecking order.

Tanner Hudson, CIN | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. HOU

The Bengals tight end situation is a bit of a mess… or maybe a “conundrum” would be a better word. Perhaps it’s just a spot to avoid altogether, but I also don’t mind taking some GPP shots on one of these cheap Bengals tight ends (primarily Hudson or Irv Smith Jr.) and just hope for the best. Smith and Drew Sample both caught touchdowns for the Bengals last week but Hudson saw the most targets (5), receptions (4), and yards (45). Hudson played only 16 offensive snaps (23% snap%) but, when he was out there, QB Joe Burrow was looking his way quite a bit. Hudson has missed several games this season but he does lead the Bengals TEs with an 18.3% target per route run rate. It’s also reasonable to assume that he’ll be more involved due to the Tee Higgins and, possibly, Ja’Marr Chase absences. Finally, it’s a premium match-up as the Texans have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to TEs this season, and THE most FPPG to TEs L4Weeks. TEs have averaged 8.5 receptions/gm, 86.3 YPG, 0.8 TDs/gm, and 21.2 DKFPPG against the Texans in their last four contests. So, odds are, Hudson (or Irv Smith Jr., perhaps even Drew Sample) will have a fantasy-relevant game this Sunday.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Dallas Cowboys | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.2k | vs. NYG (Giants 11.0 implied points, lol)

DraftKings Value D/ST: Cleveland Browns | DK: $3k, FD: $4.1k | @ BAL

Contrarian D/ST: Baltimore Ravens | DK: $4k, FD: $4.6k | vs. CLE (Should be considerably lower-owned than DAL D/ST)

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Keenan Allen

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Dalton Schultz

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tyler Boyd

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

CJ Stroud, Tank Dell, Noah Brown

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Tony Pollard + Cowboys D/ST

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey

-OR-

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon

Value Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Kyler Murray, Rondale Moore, James Conner

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp WR

Will Levis, DeAndre Hopkins, Mike Evans

Touchdown Call 🏈

Dalton Schultz, HOU | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.1k | @ CIN

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Joe Burrow MORE than 18.5 Fantasy Score

Amon-Ra St. Brown MORE than 88.5 Receiving Yards

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!