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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Due to four teams being on their bye (CLE, GB, LV, SEA) and the Munich ‘island game’ (NYG vs. CAR), Sunday’s main slate will revert back to a 10-game (DraftKing)/11-game (FanDuel) set. As usual, FanDuel’s slate will include the SNF game (DET @ HOU), which is certainly looking like a very fantasy-friendly environment this week! Even with several teams off the main slate ticket, there is still plenty of action to dive into! So let’s do just that. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• MIN @ JAX (1:00 ET, 43.0 O/U): Rain is possible w/ 10-15 mph winds. Nothing too crazy.

• NE @ CHI (1:00 ET, 38.5 O/U): 15+ mph sustained winds w/ gusts around 25-30 mph. A bit of rain could also move through the area. Some longer throws/FG kicks could be affected.

• SF @ TB (1:00 ET, 50.0 O/U): Winds around 15 mph.

• PIT @ WAS (1:00 ET, 45.5 O/U): Late-game showers possible.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Brock Purdy, SF | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.1k | at TB

I don’t really feel the need to force in a super pricey QB on this slate, so we’ll start things off closer to the mid-range with Brock Purdy. Despite losing WR Brandon Aiyuk for the season and WR Deebo Samuel being questionable (seems likely to play), Purdy still has ample talent around him and the 49ers should be getting the always-dynamic Christian McCaffrey back in action this Sunday. It’s also not as if Aiyuk was having huge success this season, outside of one big performance back in week five. Purdy continues to supply big plays, ranking 2nd in the NFL in yards per completion (13.5), he has also mixed in some quality rushing numbers, averaging 26.3 rush YPG, and he has punched in three rushing TDs in the last two games. And, of course, the Bucs' defense is always a great match-up for opposing QBs as they have given up the 3rd most FPPG to QBs this season. The 49ers (-6.5) have also passed +54% more when favored (last nine games) and they lead the slate with a 28.3 implied point total.

Sam Darnold, MIN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.8k | at JAX

If Jacksonville is on the slate, we’re typically going to consider the QB they’re facing. The Jags continue to rank dead last in pass DVOA and adjusted FPPG allowed to QBs by a wide margin. The Jags have also given up the second-most passing TDs (19) and have applied pressure on the QB at the fourth-lowest rate (17.9%). Meanwhile, Darnold has flourished in this Vikings system and, with eight starts under his belt this season, the “just a fluke” narrative that was popular in the early season can be thrown out the window. Darnold is surrounded by great weapons (and just got an upgrade w/ TE TJ Hockenson’s return in week nine) and he heads into this match-up ranking 4th in the NFL in passer rating (107.8), 7th in completion% (69.5), and 5th in yards per completions (12.3). Darnold has been more of a strong floor play/cash game option this season, but if there’s any game where he could break through into a 30-ish FP ceiling, it’d be this week.

Justin Herbert, LAC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.9k | vs. TEN

There aren’t many QBs cheaper than Herbert on either the DK or FD slate and there have been some promising mid-season signs out of this Chargers passing offense. Herbert is up to 33.0 pass attempts/gm over his L4Games after averaging just 22.3 attempts/gm over the first four weeks. His receiving weapons are fairly underwhelming and inexperienced, but he’s making it work and it seems like the chemistry has been steadily building. The Titans possess a fairly mediocre defense and some of their good-looking numbers against QBs stem from simply facing the third-fewest opponent pass attempts per game (28.9). If Herbert airs it out upwards of 35 times on Sunday, he’s likely paying off these bargain price tags.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Saquon Barkley, PHI | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.6k | at DAL

Little needs to be said to build a case for Saquon Barkley this week. He has already popped for four ceiling games this season and it should be another favorable game script for the Eagles’ rushing game as they head into Dallas as -7.5 road favorites versus the now Cooper-Rush-led Cowboys. The Dak Prescott (hamstring/IR) injury has caught the major headlines, but the Cowboys are dealing with numerous injuries on the defensive side of the ball as well. They have also been trounced at home by RBs, allowing a whopping 42.5 DKFP/41.0 FDFP per game to the position at home this season. The price is steep for Saquon, but so are the potential results.

Jonathan Taylor, IND | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.6k | vs. BUF

Taylor landed in a predictably bad spot against a tough Vikings run defense (1st in rush DVOA) last week, and the game script was not great to boot. But he has been a true workhorse when healthy this season and draws a sneaky-good match-up this week. Buffalo has surrendered the 4th most adjusted FPPG to RBs and has allowed +18% more FPPG to RBs when on the road (last nine games). The Colts’ WRs have been receiving the hype in perceived fantasy value with Joe Flacco re-instated as the starting QB, but Taylor may be the true beneficiary -- he should be facing fewer loaded boxes, not losing goal-line work to QB Anthony Richardson, and has more receiving upside as Flacco ranks 5th among NFL QBs in checkdown rate (16.3%).

D’Andre Swift, CHI | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.7k | vs. NE

It was an ugly week nine showing for this Bears offense but Swift still salvaged his day from a fantasy standpoint, mustering 51 yards on the ground and catching 6-of-6 targets for 31 yards. It did end a four-game TD streak but there is a strong possibility he’ll make it back into the paydirt versus a Pats defense that has given up 1.1 TDs/gm to opposing RBs. The Pats are also permitting the 3rd most adjusted FPPG to RBs this season. When you also account for the windy, potentially wet, weather in this game, you can see how Swift could be heavily featured in this game.

Austin Ekeler, WAS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.8k | vs. PIT

No Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring/out) for a second consecutive week so Ekeler should be operating as the primary Commanders back once again. It may be tough sledding on the ground for any Washington RB who runs the ball, as the Steelers have only allowed 4.0 YPC this season (4th lowest). However, Pittsburgh has still given up the 8th most FPPG to RBs over their L4Games, largely because of the receiving production that RBs have had against them. RBs are averaging 5.1 receptions/gm (6th most) and that’s up to 5.8 receptions/gm L4Games. As most are aware, much of Ekeler’s value stems from his ability as a pass catcher, so look for him to be very involved in that regard on Sunday.

Samaje Perine, KC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.8k | vs. DEN

This is very much a wild card play, and likely better suited for DraftKings given the full PPR scoring. The Chiefs played on Monday night and, on a short week, I’m beginning to have some concerns over Kareem Hunt’s workload. The Chiefs may be content with running Hunt into the ground until they get Isiah Pacheco back from the IR, but Hunt has handled a substantial 102 touches over the previous four games. Perhaps KC looks to get more work out of pass-catching specialist Samaje Perine. It makes sense against a Broncos’ defense that has allowed 6.5 receptions/gm to RBs L4Games. Hunt has rarely been involved as a receiver and Perine brought in a receiving TD last week. It’s a long shot, but if you’re feeling frisky and playing more than a few lineups, throwing a virtually unowned Perine in a lineup or two could pay dividends.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Jefferson, MIN | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.5k | at JAX

We’re still waiting on that JJ explosion game but you can’t argue against his steadfast production all season. Refer back to the Sam Darnold spotlight to see why we’re liking the Vikings air attack this week. Worth noting, the Jags have allowed THE most FPPG to perimeter WRs this season (Jefferson: 68% PerimeterRoute%).

Garrett Wilson, NYJ | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.9k | at ARI

The addition of Davante Adams continues to look like, at worst, a net neutral for Garrett Wilson’s fantasy upside and, if anything, it’s been a positive. Wilson has faced more single coverage lately and is coming off of a huge 9-90-2 receiving line in week nine, which included arguably the catch of the year on an unreal one-handed 26-yard TD reception in the back of the endzone where he somehow dragged his shin in bounds. Wilson has seen fewer than eight targets in just one game this season and there should continue to be plenty of targets to go around in a Jets offense that has been the 5th most pass-happy offense in the NFL (63.5% PassPlay%).

Josh Downs, IND | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.1k | vs. BUF

If we’re talking Colts offense, I am more enticed by RB Jonathan Taylor on this slate but I’m also hard-pressed to ignore the fact that Downs has averaged 10 targets/gm in Joe Flacco’s three starts this season. It’s not a particularly great match-up but Downs, who has run an 85% SlotRoute%, does draw the best match-up as the Bills’ secondary has been stout on the perimeter but fairly mediocre against the slot this season.

Ladd McConkey, LAC | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.3k | vs. TEN

As discussed in Justin Herbert’s spotlight, the Chargers have been more willing to let their QB rip it lately and, if that trend continues, it would bode well for his number one target Ladd McConkey, who has led the team with a 24.6% Target% this season. It may just be ‘noise’ but the rookie slot WR has also excelled in three home games this season where he has averaged 21.6 DKFP/18.9 FDFP per game, and the Chargers are back at home this week. The Titans have also allowed +41% more FPPG to shorter WRs.

DeAndre Hopkins, KC | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6k | vs. DEN

D-Hop is going to be major chalk but a tough player to fade. Not only did he have a monster performance in primetime on MNF (8-86-2 target/receiving line) but his DFS salaries are not adjusted to that breakout performance since main slate salaries are released so early in the week. After playing a limited role in his Chiefs’ debut (32% snap%, 3 targets), Hopkins’ snap rate nearly doubled in week nine (60% snap%) and the targets tripled (9). The additional week to learn the system and work with Mahomes clearly showed through on Monday night. We clearly can’t count on another two-touchdown game but Hopkins is a can’t-miss option on this slate as he appears to be taking over the “Rashee Rice role.”

Parker Washington, JAX | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.4k | vs. MIN

WRs have flourished versus the Vikings (2nd most FPPG allowed to WRs) all season. The Jags WRs get their chance this week. It’s tough to get excited about a likely Mac-Jones-led offense (Trevor Lawrence unlikely to play) but the targets and pass yards have to go somewhere. The Jags’ receiving corps could be very shorthanded with Christian Kirk out for the season while both Brian Thomas Jr. (chest) and Gabe Davis (shoulder) questionable to suit up. I believe Washington gets a minimum of six targets here and he could certainly eclipse 10+ targets.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: N/A, FD: $9k | at HOU

Nico Collins, HOU | DK: N/A, FD: $8.8k | vs. DET

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

George Kittle, SF | DK: $5.8k, FD: $8k | at TB

Kittle has been the most consistent fantasy TE all season and I don’t see that changing this week. The Bucs have been obliterated by TEs this season and that has been exacerbated over their previous four games where they have allowed an average of 8.0 receptions/gm, 96.8 YPG, 1.0 TDs/gm, and the most FPPG to the position. I could see CMC’s return dinging Kittle’s redzone value a bit, but I’m willing to place more faith in Kittle's production up to this point combined with the elite match-up.

TJ Hockenson, MIN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6.5k | at JAX

In his first game since tearing his ACL and MCL in week 16 of last season, Hockenson logged a solid 45% of the snaps while catching 3-of-4 targets for 27 yards. Josh Oliver was the Vikings TE who had the big game in week nine (5-58-1) but, under normal circumstances, much of that production could’ve easily gone Hockenson’s way. He’ll probably still play with some limitations, but if he inches closer to a 70% snap%, then a big Hock game could be on the horizon. The Jags have given up the 4th most FPPG to TEs L4Games.

Taysom Hill, NO | DK: $4k, FD: $6.3k | vs. ATL

We were on Hill last week and he returned a quality, versatile performance. With the Saints down multiple key receivers and thin on RB depth, Hill had a 48.5% RouteParticipation%, caught 4-of-5 targets for 41 yards, and took five carries for 19 yards and a TD near the goal line. Hill also attempted one pass which fell incomplete. His floor can be tough to trust, but the same can be said for about 90% of the TEs in the NFL. The Saints should continue to find creative ways to utilize Hill’s unique skillset and he’s always a candidate to punch in one of those short-yardage TDs like we saw last week.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Minnesota Vikings | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.9k | at JAX

Value D/ST: Denver Broncos | DK: $2.4k, FD: $4.1k | at KC

DraftKings Value D/ST: Chicago Bears | DK: $3k, FD: $5k | vs. NE

Contrarian D/ST: Kansas City Chiefs | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. DEN

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Running Back (Game Stack)

Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, Jonathan Taylor

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Parker Washington

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (FanDuel Main Slate Only SNF Game Stack)

CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, Amon-Ra St. Brown

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Aaron Rodgers, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

D’Andre Swift + Bears D/ST

Full Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones

Value Double Stack | Cheap QB + Two Pass Catchers

Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp Receiver (From a low O/U game)

Patrick Mahomes, DeAndre Hopkins, Courtland Sutton

Sunday Night Football Showdown Cheat Sheet

Detroit Lions (-3.5) at Houston Texans | 48.5 O/U

Lions: 26.0 Implied Points | Texans: 22.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: [HOU] WR Nico Collins - Questionable, [HOU] WR Tank Dell - Questionable, [HOU] WR Stefon Diggs - OUT/IR, [HOU] RB Dameon Pierce - OUT

Score Prediction: Lions - 31, Texans - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Lions, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Texans, 5-1 Lions

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!