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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Week 11 has arrived and, with it, comes an 11-game Sunday main slate! As much as I’d love to hype up this week’s slate, the truth of the matter is that we’re likely looking at quite a few lopsided match-ups tomorrow. Seven of the 11 main slate games own a spread of at least seven points with three games featuring double-digit spreads, which is a bit of a rarity by NFL standards. Nonetheless, there are some quality match-ups left on the board and we should still squeeze a handful of entertaining games out of this slate! Let’s jump into the DFS action and try to solve the puzzle! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• PIT @ CLE: 10 mph sustained winds, 15 mph gusts. Nothing too impactful.

• NYJ @ BUF: 10-15 mph sustained winds with 15-20 mph gusts.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

CJ Stroud, HOU | DK: $7k, FD: $8k | vs. ARI

Even the most optimistic Texans fan probably couldn’t have foreseen CJ Stroud’s sensational rookie campaign coming. We’re well into the 2023 season and Stroud is 2nd in the NFL in passing yards (2,626), 1st in pass YPG (291.8), 3rd in yards per attempt (8.3), and he owns an NFL-low 0.6% INT%. He has also been lighting it up at home where he has averaged 339.8 pass YPG with an 11:1 TD:INT ratio and 27.6 FPPG. Stroud draws a juicy match-up against the Cardinals and their 30th-ranked pass DVOA defense this week. With Kyler Murray back and healthy on the other side of the ball, this game is one of the few on the slate with some legitimate shootout potential, and, to no surprise, the 48 over/under here is tied for the highest total on the slate.

Jared Goff, DET | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.9k | vs. CHI

Historically, Jared Goff plays better both at home and in domed stadiums. That remains true this season. Goff is averaging +26% more FPPG at home and +31.3% more FPPG in domed stadiums. The Lions rank second on the slate with a 27.8 implied team total and, when it comes to this offense, much of the DFS focus is going to land on their dynamic backfield duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, who faces off with his former team for the first time. I’m not necessarily against either one of those RB plays but it’s worth pointing out that the Bears defense has been a certified pass funnel this season. The Bears rank 6th in rush DVOA, they’re allowing the 2nd fewest rushing YPG (76.0), and over their last four games, they’ve surrendered just 36.8 rush YPG to RBs. On the flip side, they rank 29th in pass DVOA and allow +21% more FPPG to QBs when playing on the road. Gibbs and Montgomery will get their work in on the ground but it’s much more likely that the Lions’ offense will have the most success with Goff and the passing game.

Kyler Murray, ARI | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.6k | @ HOU

If you’re gunning for a value QB on this slate, without getting all the way down into the dumpster diving tier, Sam Howell (DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.7k) and Brock Purdy (DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.5k) also make plenty of sense, but Kyler Murray will earn the spotlight. Despite zero passing touchdowns last week, Murray still put up a solid 2023 debut. He scored 18.26 FP while averaging 13.1 yards per completion and tacking on 33 rushing yards with a rushing TD. There didn’t seem to be any limitations on his rushing ability in his first game back from his torn ACL injury and a healthy Kyler Murray is likely going to win some slates down the stretch of this season. The Texans (-5.5) have allowed +28% more FPPG to QBs when favored and it’s easier to find success against the Houston defense through the air (20th in pass DVOA) than on the ground (13th in rush DVOA).

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Austin Ekeler, LAC | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.8k | @ GB

CMC (DK: $9.3k, FD: $10k) and Ekeler seem to be in their own top tier on this slate and there will be some sizable savings by dropping down to Ekeler. He’s scored four touchdowns in the previous three games while commanding at least seven targets and 14 rushes in each of those contests. Joshua Kelley will play his usual two or three series to give Ekeler a breather, but Ekeler has been playing around 70% of the snaps while handling all of the redzone work. Ekeler has 12 RZ opportunities in the last four games to Kelley’s zero. He’ll draw a plus match-up against the Packers, who check in at 22nd in rush DVOA and have allowed the 7th most FPPG to RBs this season.

Raheem Mostert, MIA | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.8k | vs. LV

De’Von Achane, MIA | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k | vs. LV

We’ll give a dual spotlight to the Dolphins backfield this week. The Raiders are routinely one of the best defenses to target when it comes to RBs and Miami has one of the best backfield tandems in the league, rivaled perhaps only by Detroit’s Gibbs/Monty duo. The Raiders check in at 27th in rush DVOA, they’ve allowed the 5th most FPPG to RBs L4Games, and they’ve allowed the 4th highest explosive run rate. Mostert leads all NFL RBs in total touchdowns (13) and he’s likely to garner the most touches out of the Miami backfield. Meanwhile, Achane makes his return from the IR after setting the fantasy world on fire in weeks three (54.3 DKFP vs. DEN), four (30.0 DKFP @ BUF), and five (25.5 DKFP vs. NYG). He probably won’t handle significant volume in his first game back in action, but the guy has unreal speed and has averaged an absurd 12.1 YPC this season. Achane is certainly the sexier, high-upside play, but Mostert deserves some shares as well and will check in at lower ownership. The Dolphins are fresh off of their bye week and they lead the slate with a 29.8 implied team total while also stepping in as massive -13.5 home favorites. Expect a monster day for the Dolphins backfield in this one.

Tony Pollard, DAL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.9k | @ CAR

Pollard has been one of the more frustrating fantasy players this season but he has to get it done in this spot, right? The volume has not been a major problem this season as Pollard is averaging a rock-solid 18.2 touches/gm while playing 70% of the snaps. He also has 44 redzone opportunities this season -- the only other RB on the slate with more is Christian McCaffrey, with 47 RZ opportunities. Despite all of that redzone work and the Cowboys’ offense being a certified machine as of late, Pollard has not found the endzone since his two-touchdown performance way back in week one. The good news is that Pollard is now at or near his season-low in DFS pricing and he gets to face off with an awful, awful Panthers run defense that is 31st in rush DVOA, allows the 2nd most FPPG to RBs, and gives up 1.4 TDs/gm to RBs. The Cowboys are also -10.5 road favorites so the game script should work out in Pollard’s favor (DAL rushes +29% more when favored). With playoffs not too far down the road, I believe Dallas will also want to get their RB1 rolling sooner rather than later. It’s hard to bank on a big week for Pollard based on what we’ve seen this season, but plenty of signs do point in that direction. Backup RB Rico Dowdle, who punched in a TD last week, is also questionable with an ankle injury so Pollard’s workload is further secured if Dowdle is eventually ruled out.

Brian Robinson Jr., WAS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.2k | vs. NYG

I’m viewing Robinson as a top-10 RB play this week but he steps in as the 17th most expensive RB on DraftKings and 12th most expensive on FanDuel. The Commanders are stout -8.5 home favorites over the hapless Giants and Washington has rushed +18% more when favored (last nine games). The volume hasn’t been ideal as Robinson has had 14 or fewer carries in seven of the last eight games. He did most of his damage as a receiver last week, catching 6-of-6 targets for 119 yards and a touchdown -- not exactly something we can count on again. But Robinson has been scripted out of most games this season and I don’t see that happening this Sunday. Look for a quality performance out of the second-year RB as he takes on the Giants and their 30th-ranked rush DVOA defense.

Devin Singletary, HOU | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.5k | vs. ARI

I don’t particularly love Singletary as a talent but volume is king in DFS and he’s coming off of a 30-carry performance where he racked up 161 total yards and a touchdown in week 10. With Dameon Pierce (ankle) ruled out for a third consecutive week, Singletary is going to handle most of the snaps and Texans RB touches once again in a plus match-up (ARI: 28th rush DVOA, 3rd most FPPG allowed to RBs). Singletary played 81% of the snaps last week and 75% of the snaps in week nine. He will be one of the highest-owned RBs on the slate so there will be some merit in fading him (or lowering exposure) for GPPs but, for the price, he’s a quality cash game play as the primary RB in an offense that will be able to move the ball with ease against a bad Cardinals defense.

Jerome Ford, CLE | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.7k | vs. PIT

If you want a cheaper RB but aren’t a fan of the Devin Singletary chalk, Ford sets up as a nice lower-owned pivot at similar DFS salaries. QB Deshaun Watson will miss the rest of the season with a shoulder injury but there is no data that points to the Browns’ running game suffering with Watson in or out of the lineup. In week 10, Ford hit season highs in snaps (50), rushing yards (107), and route participation (62%). Kareem Hunt will factor in with some carries and perhaps a couple of targets as well but Ford has been the Browns' clear-cut primary ball carrier AND the preferred pass-catching RB out of the Cleveland backfield. This match-up is an ugly one and owns a slate-low 33 over/under, but the Browns are slight -1.5 home favorites. The Steelers are also more easily attacked on the ground (17th in rush DVOA) than through the air (8th in pass DVOA). 100+ total yards and a touchdown is a very attainable outcome from Ford this week.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.9k | vs. CHI

Wide receiver is loaded at the top on this slate but I’m not sure how you can look past Amon-Ra St. Brown based on his season-long consistency. He now has either 12+ targets, a touchdown, or 100+ receiving yards in every game played this season and is coming off a season-high 156 yards in week 10. He also averages +28.0% more FPPG in domed stadiums and, as mentioned in Jared Goff’s spotlighted segment, the Bears have been a pass funnel defense this season (6th in rush DVOA, 29th in pass DVOA). St. Brown (53% SlotRoute%) also draws the most favorable WR/CB match-up against Kyler Gordon out of the slot. He’ll be a priority high-floor, high-ceiling DFS option yet again this Sunday.

Garrett Wilson, NYJ | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7k | @ BUF

Despite being stuck on one of the NFL’s worst offenses, Garrett Wilson has persevered by posting plenty of quality fantasy performances this season. He has commanded at least 12 targets in five of his last six games and he ranks 2nd among all NFL receivers with a 33.5% target% and 47.3% air yard%. Unfortunately, the touchdowns just haven’t been there. That blame pretty much exclusively falls on QB Zach Wilson… but it has not been due to a lack of trying. Garrett Wilson has earned an incredible, NFL-leading 47.8% redzone target% on the season. If a touchdown ever gets tacked onto one of Wilson’s usual volume-heavy performances, it’s easy to see how he could land in an optimal GPP-winning lineup. And, while this is not a dream match-up, it’s far from one to avoid. The Bills defense has suffered multiple key injuries and they’ve allowed the 4th most FPOE (fantasy points over expected) to WRs this season.

Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.1k | vs. TB

Samuel missed two games prior to last week and, due to a 49ers 34-3 blowout over the Jags, Samuel only ended up playing 56% of the offensive snaps. He still had a nice fantasy day, catching all four of his targets for 30 yards and adding three rushes for 29 yards and a touchdown. The 49ers (-12.5) could very well win big again versus the Bucs, but we should still expect Samuel to play closer to his usual 80+% snap% this Sunday now that he has had another full week to heal up. The Bucs have been getting torched by WRs this season, allowing the 4th most FPPG to the position. They’ve also given up 50.5 DKFPPG to WRs on the road this season, so Samuel and the 49ers’ passing attack is poised for a big week.

Calvin Ridley, JAX | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.5k | vs. TEN

The Titans’ defense (27th pass DVOA, 4th rush DVOA) certainly falls under the “pass funnel” category so it would be logical to gain some exposure to the Jags passing game this week. Christian Kirk (DK: $6k, FD: $6.9k) has been as steady as it gets for a mid-range WR, but he has run 72% of his routes out of the slot, which is where the Titans have been fairly decent (11th fewest FPPG to slot WRs). The perimeter is where the big games for opposing WRs have come from as the Titans have allowed the 5th most FPPG to outside WRs. That puts us on the volatile, but affordable Calvin Ridley (83% PerimeterRoute%). Ridley had his breakout week one performance but has since had quite a few dud performances. However, the inconsistent results have driven his DFS prices down to a point that I’d be comfortable with taking some shots on Ridley on this slate. There is excellent upside to be had from him this week.

Rondale Moore, ARI | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.9k | @ HOU

Moore commanded a season-high eight targets in QB Kyler Murray’s first start of the season. Given Murray’s 32 pass attempts last week, that works out to a strong 25.0% target%, which ranked 22nd among week 10 NFL receivers. Murray and Moore were developing some nice rapport before Murray’s ACL injury last season and Moore once again makes for an intriguing value play on this slate. Moore runs 67% of his routes out of the slot, which is where the Texans have been, by far, the most vulnerable. The Texans have surrendered the 6th fewest FPPG to perimeter WRs this season but the 4th most to slot WRs, and the 2nd most slot WR FPPG over the last eight weeks. Moore is best suited as a punt play on DraftKings due to full PPR scoring but, if you need a cheap option, he’s well within play on FanDuel as well.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

George Kittle, SF | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7k | vs. TB

Kittle is the most expensive tight end on this week’s slate and it’s an intriguing spot to “pay up to be different.” Tight ends have found more than enough success against the Bucs lately, averaging 6.5 receptions/gm, 78.0 YPG, 0.5 TDs/gm, and 17.8 DKFP/gm (4th most) over Tampa Bay’s last four games. Kittle has also been much better at home this season. In four home games, the star tight end is averaging 78.8 YPG and 18.1 DKFPPG compared to 48.8 YPG and 9.7 DKFPPG in five road games.

Trey McBride, ARI | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.9k | @ HOU

Chalk tight ends always make me a little nervous since it’s the position where the chalk is most likely to bust. McBride is trending toward high ownership this week but he’s a tough TE play to look past out of the mid-range. With Zach Ertz on the IR since week eight, McBride has averaged a 76% snap% (last three games). In Kyler Murray’s 2023 debut last week, McBride led the team in air yards (85, 26.7% air yard%) and targets (9, 29.0% target%). He ended his day with eight receptions for 131 yards. Even a premier tight end like Travis Kelce will have a tough time leading his team in both air yards and target share in any given game, so McBride landed in some rarefied air last week. Kyler Murray has a history of relying heavily on his tight end and the Texans have been a stellar match-up for TEs, allowing the 2nd most FPPG to the position this season. If you’re okay with the high projected ownership, McBride makes a ton of sense as a mid-range TE play on this slate.

Pat Freiermuth, PIT | DK: $2.5k, FD: $5k | @ CLE

This will be a “DraftKings preferred” play. Freiermuth (hamstring) was activated off of the IR on Saturday afternoon so he’ll now have a chance to suit up this week. After logging full practices on both Thursday and Friday, it would seem as if he’s on the more favorable side of his “questionable” designation. Assuming he does indeed play, he’ll by no means be a safe DFS option. The Browns have allowed the fewest FPPG to TEs this season and rank 1st in TE DVOA. That said, Freiermuth is priced at the stone minimum of $2,500 on DraftKings and he has caught a touchdown in two of his three fully healthy games this season. He won’t need much production (on DraftKings) to return value and he’ll also be a very low-owned punt play. But, again, make sure he’s active for this 1:00 ET kickoff before locking him into any lineups.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Dallas Cowboys | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.2k | @ CAR

Mid-Range D/ST: Pittsburgh Steelers | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4k | @ CLE

Value D/ST: New York Jets | DK: $2.6k, FD: $3.7k | @ BUF

Contrarian D/ST: Jacksonville Jaguars | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. TEN

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

CJ Stroud, Tank Dell, Trey McBride

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Justin Fields, DJ Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

CJ Stroud, Tank Dell, Nico Collins

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Tony Pollard + Cowboys D/ST

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs

Value Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Kyler Murray, Rondale Moore, James Conner

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp WR

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Garrett Wilson

Touchdown Call 🏈

Tony Pollard, DAL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.9k | @ CAR

It’s time, Tony!

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Rondale Moore MORE than 32.5 Receiving Yards

Garrett Wilson MORE than 10.5 Receiving Targets

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!