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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Week 11 brings us another intriguing main slate with 11 games on tap. Some matchups look a lot more exciting than others, but the slate as a whole should stay competitive -- every game currently sits within a one-score spread. We could see some wind impact a few spots, and four games carry healthy 48.5 totals, so there’s plenty to dig into. Let’s get down to business. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report 🌦️

• GB at NYG (1:00 ET, 42.5 O/U): Winds 15–20 mph with gusts up to 30–40 mph. Deep throws and longer kicks could be impacted.

• CIN at PIT (1:00 ET, 48.5 O/U): Sustained winds around 15–20 mph with gusts 30–35 mph—some impact on downfield passing and kicking.

• HOU at TEN (1:00 ET, 37.5 O/U): Light 10 mph winds with 15 mph gusts. Not too concerning.

• LAC at JAX (1:00 ET, 43.5 O/U): Winds may hover near 15 mph with gusts around 20 mph. Minimal impact, if any.

• TB at BUF (1:00 ET, 46.5 O/U): Around 20 mph sustained winds with 35 mph gusts. A stray rain or snow shower is possible, but most of the game should stay dry.

• KC at DEN (4:25 ET, 44.5 O/U): Light winds and any rain should stay west of the stadium—no major issues.

• BAL at CLE (4:25 ET, 38.5 O/U): Strong onshore winds off the lake — sustained near 25 mph with gusts around 35 mph. This will affect both passing and kicking.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $7k, FD: $9k | vs. TB

Josh Allen hasn’t had the typical “Josh Allen season,” but he’s still firmly in the mix as a top-end DFS play anytime he lands on a slate. The Bills have stumbled more than usual -- dropping two of their last four on the road, including last week’s flat showing in Miami -- but getting back home should steady things. Allen has quietly been excellent in Buffalo this year, and he has averaged +47% more FPPG at home than he has on the road. This is the kind of spot where his ceiling tends to pop, and the matchup against Tampa Bay is more than workable. With the highest ceiling projection on the slate and lighter ownership expected, due to most of the field likely preferring to save money at the QB position, Allen shapes up as an ideal tournament pivot with slate-breaking upside.

J.J. McCarthy, MIN | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.8k | vs. CHI

J.J. McCarthy continues to be one of the more appealing salary-savers, and it’s no surprise he’s projecting as one of the most popular QBs in all formats. He’s delivered steady production through his first three full games -- 23.2, 19.9, and 16.7 fantasy points -- with his legs providing a reliable floor. The rushing volume is legit for a rookie, as he’s averaging over five attempts per game with two scores already on the ground while accounting for a 38.1% Designed Rush Rate. That last figure is higher than other mobile QBs like Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, and the aforementioned Josh Allen, so McCarthy’s dual-threat ability is viewed as a core part of the Vikings’ offensive game plan. He also gets a very friendly matchup against Chicago, a defense against which he posted his best fantasy outing earlier this season. The Bears have steadily bled production to QBs this season, allowing the 3rd-most adjusted FPPG to the position. With this rematch coming at home in a game where Minnesota is carrying a strong implied total, McCarthy again shapes up as a rock-solid value who can keep paying off with both his arm and his mobility.

Jacoby Brissett, ARI | DK: $4.9k, FD: $7k | vs. SF

The Cardinals and Jacoby Brissett got blown out last week, but he once again showed up where it matters for us. He’s now started four games for Arizona and has cleared 20 fantasy points in every single one, combining steady passing volume with just enough rushing juice to keep his floor healthy. Brissett is averaging nearly 280 yards and multiple scores per game, and he’s added 20 rushing yards per start to round things out. Now he gets a 49ers defense that’s springing leaks without Fred Warner, ranking near the bottom of the league in both overall and pass defense over the last few weeks while allowing 23.3 FPPG to QBs across their last four games. In a matchup carrying one of the higher totals on the slate, Brissett remains an underpriced, high-floor option who can once again push for a strong return. The only real concern here is the fact that Brissett will have to play this game without his best wide receiver, Marvin Harrison Jr., who just underwent surgery to address appendicitis. But as long as Trey McBride and other receiving options step up, Brissett should come through.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Jacobs, GB | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.1k | at NYG

Jacobs hasn’t been efficient, but few backs in the league can match his workload. He owns 71% of Green Bay’s designed rushes -- including a massive 88% DesignedRush% last week -- and he supplements that with a steady 13% target share. He’s logged 20+ opportunities in seven of nine games, and his goal-line usage is elite: 13 carries inside the five (tied for second among RBs) and seven TD conversions, the most from that range. Now he draws one of the best matchups a running back can ask for. The Giants sit dead last in rush DVOA and have allowed the second-most adjusted FPPG to RBs. With the Packers favored by a touchdown on the road, this matchup lends itself to a classic Jacobs script -- heavy volume, multiple scoring chances, and a strong history in similar spots.

Rico Dowdle, CAR | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.1k | at ATL

Dowdle has fully seized the Panthers’ backfield, and he’s been nothing short of fantastic since taking over. In four starts, he’s averaged a massive 143 rushing YPG -- elite production at his salary. Even in last week’s trailing gamescript versus the Saints, he still avoided a dud and handled 21 touches on a season-high 79% snap%. Carolina’s offense has plenty of issues, but running the ball isn’t one of them. The Panthers’ offensive line has been among the best run-blocking units in the NFL, ranking 6th in adjusted line yards, and Dowdle has turned that support into 5.3 yards per carry. He’s also top-10 in broken tackles, adding a reliable after-contact element to his workload. This week’s matchup sets up well for more of the same. Atlanta has been fantastic against the pass (2nd in pass DVOA), but ranks just 27th in rush DVOA and has allowed the seventh-most adjusted FPPG to RBs. With Carolina already limited through the air, Dowdle should again be the centerpiece of the offense for as long as the game remains competitive.

Jaylen Warren, PIT | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7k | vs. CIN

Warren looks underpriced this week, especially now that any hint of a committee has disappeared. After briefly entertaining the idea of mixing in Gainwell, Pittsburgh has gone right back to Warren as their clear lead back -- and his usage reflects it. He’s handled 80% of the carries over the past four games, trailing only Jonathan Taylor and Quinshon Judkins in that span. The matchup here is as good as it gets. Cincinnati sits 31st in rush DVOA and has given up the most adjusted FPPG points to opposing RBs by a significant margin. He already carved this defense up for 22.8 DKFP in their first meeting -- and that was without scoring a touchdown. Back at home as a favorite this time, the setup gets even better, and Warren has historically thrived in these sorts of spots. With Pittsburgh carrying the highest implied team total on the slate, Warren profiles as one of the strongest overall plays at the position.

Chase Brown, CIN | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.2k | at PIT

It’s been a frustrating year for Brown, especially after he looked like a true bell-cow down the stretch last season with elite usage and top-five fantasy production. The offensive line has been a mess, and the offense stalled after Burrow went down, which tanked his efficiency and scoring chances, but things have finally started to turn with Joe Flacco under center. Brown ripped off 108 rushing yards against Pittsburgh three games ago and has followed that with back-to-back outings of at least 19.2 PPR points. Even better, his workload just hit a season-high -- 96% snaps and a massive 30% Target% fueled by 13 targets and 75 receiving yards in week nine. He’s clearly a focal point of this offense again, and the Bengals are leaning on him exactly like they did late last year. With another shot at a Steelers defense that he already beat up once, Brown stands out as a strong mid-range RB option who brings both volume security and real ceiling.

R.J. Harvey, DEN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.8k | at KC

Harvey has had varying degrees of success during his rookie campaign. He has recently carved out a solid redzone role, but has generally been stuck behind JK Dobbins on early downs and Tyler Badie on passing downs. That should change for the foreseeable future with Dobbins hitting the IR due to a foot injury. Harvey is expected to step into the starting role, giving him a real chance to post his best workload of the season. Harvey has flashed legit ability as a receiver, earning targets on 23% of his routes -- an elite rate for an RB -- and more snaps should only boost that part of his game. The matchup isn’t ideal, as the Chiefs have allowed the 5th-fewest adjusted FPPG to RBs. But, if Harvey gets the expected bump in usage, he’s a strong value play who brings both receiving upside and a path to meaningful volume.

Woody Marks, HOU | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.3k | at TEN

Marks took over the Texans’ backfield in a big way during last week’s wild comeback win, playing a season-high 80% of the snaps and handling 70% of the carries, including every goal-line attempt. It was his third positive fantasy outing in the past four weeks, and the usage bump suggests he’s beginning to separate from Nick Chubb. If that trend holds, he’s in a great spot against a Titans defense that ranks near the bottom of the league against the run and has allowed the fourth-most adjusted FPPG to RBs.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.4k | at PIT

Chase was stuck in fantasy limbo for a bit early in the season after Joe Burrow went down, but everything flipped once Joe Flacco arrived and started feeding him like a true alpha. He’s posted a massive 39% target share in Flacco’s four starts -- even clearing 50% twice -- and has topped at least 91 receiving yards in every game during that stretch with three double-digit reception outings. Chase absolutely shredded Pittsburgh in their first meeting, turning 23 targets into a ridiculous 16-161-1 line, and the Steelers haven’t improved since, allowing the most FPPG to WRs this season. With elite volume, elite matchup, and elite talent all lining up, Chase once again profiles as one of the slate’s top ceiling plays.

Justin Jefferson, MIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.6k | vs. CHI

Justin Jefferson hasn’t delivered his usual elite production this season thanks to shaky quarterback play, but the underlying usage remains as strong as ever. He saw 12 targets last week for a 35% share and has been at 32% or higher in four of his last five games, so the Vikings have made it clear he’s still the focal point of the offense. Even with the modest results, that kind of volume at this price makes him a compelling buy-low option. The matchup also works in his favor, as the Bears have been vulnerable through the air and have allowed the ninth-most adjusted FPPG to opposing receivers. In a game with a healthy 48.5 total and Minnesota implied for 25.8 points, Jefferson has a strong chance to finally turn dominant usage into top-end production.

Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.8k | vs. GB

Wan’Dale Robinson gets a clear boost this week with Jameis Winston stepping in at quarterback, as Winston’s aggressive downfield style tends to elevate fantasy value across the board. Jaxson Dart has been strong for fantasy, but much of his production has come on the ground, and his modest passing volume has capped the upside of the Giants’ receivers. With Malik Nabers already out and Darius Slayton sidelined this week, Robinson should operate as the unquestioned No. 1 target after posting a 27% target share since Nabers went down. He’s already been heavily involved, and Winston’s willingness to let it rip only makes those targets more valuable.

Ricky Pearsall, SF | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.7k | at ARI

The 49ers finally get healthier this week, with Brock Purdy and Ricky Pearsall returning together for the first time since Week 4, and George Kittle has also been back in the mix for a few weeks. Before his injury, Pearsall was trending toward being San Francisco’s top receiver, handling a 20% target share and a massive 43% of the team’s air yards. With Brandon Aiyuk still out and the 49ers' offense closer to full strength, Pearsall steps back into a valuable role on a unit that should move the ball much more effectively. Pearsall has already had a great game against this Cardinals’ defense, reeling in 8-of-11 targets for 117 yards back in week three. As long as he isn’t facing any significant workload limitations, he’s a compelling low-owned option to keep on the radar.

Romeo Doubs, GB | DK: $5k, FD: $6.3k | at NYG

Green Bay’s pass-catching group is banged up right now, with Jayden Reed and Tucker Kraft out and Matthew Golden questionable, which leaves Doubs as the clear top option heading into Sunday’s game. He had a quiet game last week while dealing with a chest injury and playing only 62% of the snaps, but he’s now off the injury report and set for a full workload. Prior to the last game, Doubs had posted at least a 29% target share in three of his previous four outings while playing nearly 90% of the snaps and consistently operating as Jordan Love’s most trusted weapon, perhaps aside from the now-injured Tucker Kraft. The Packers may not need to air it out too often against the Giants, but when they throw, the ball should funnel heavily toward Doubs. The Giants have ranked 22nd in WR1 DVOA and have allowed the 3rd-most YPG (83.6) to WR1s this season.

Michael Wilson, ARI | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5.5k | vs. SF

Michael Wilson has been running plenty of routes this season with an 84.9% route participation rate, but the targets haven’t consistently followed, resulting in a modest 12.5% Target%. Still, he’s started to show signs of life with promising fantasy outings in recent games with Jacoby Brissett in at QB, and he commanded a season-high seven targets last week. With Marvin Harrison Jr. sidelined this week and Zay Jones done for the season due to an Achilles tear, Wilson has a real chance to step into a larger role as the No. 2 option behind Trey McBride. At his DFS price points, he’s a solid punt WR (particularly on DraftKings) who should see a meaningful bump in opportunity.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Trey McBride, ARI | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.7k | vs. SF

McBride sits in his own tier at tight end right now, leading the position with a massive 29% target share and 29% AirYard% -- no other TE is even close. He’s averaged 17.5 PPR FPPG and has been incredibly consistent, hitting double digits in all but one outing. The only knock on him used to be touchdowns, but that’s no longer an issue with Jacoby Brissett under center, as McBride has scored five times over his past four games and now owns a dominant 47.4% EndZone Target% in that stretch. With Marvin Harrison Jr. and Zay Jones sidelined, the Cardinals will lean on him even more since no other Arizona pass-catcher outside of Harrison has cleared a 13% Target% this season. McBride once again profiles as the premier option at the position, offering elite volume, touchdown equity, and the strongest floor/ceiling combo on the slate. The matchup also isn’t brutal, as the 49ers have been a middling 17th in TE DVOA while allowing the 13th-most FPPG to TEs over their last four games.

Theo Johnson, NYG | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.9k | vs. GB

If you’re not paying up for McBride, Theo Johnson stands out as one of the best salary-saving pivots on the slate. With the Giants thin on reliable pass-catchers, Johnson has carved out a solid role, posting a 21% target share since Week 4 -- top-five among tight ends during that span. He’s coming off a season-high 26% target share while playing a whopping 97% of the snaps in week 10, and with Darius Slayton sidelined, there are even more routes and targets available this week. As mentioned in Wan’Dale Robinson’s spotlight, the switch to Jameis Winston should also help, as Winston’s aggressive passing style tends to boost volume for all receivers. The matchup with Green Bay isn’t ideal, but the Packers have allowed the 4th-most receptions/gm to TEs, and Johnson’s price and growing workload make him a viable value option.

Pat Freiermuth, PIT | DK: $3.2k, FD: $5k | vs. CIN

Further down the list, we’ve got Pat Freiermuth available as an intriguing cheap TE play. Outside of DK Metcalf, the Steelers don’t have a ton of wide receiver talent, so they have been deploying plenty of two and three tight end formations. Freiermuth may not handle an every-down role, but he’s been out there for over half of the snaps across the last four games, averaging 46.0 YPG with three TDs over that span. He erupted for a 5-111-2 receiving line against the Bengals back in week seven, and while that may be a tough performance to replicate, it is noteworthy just how awful this Cincinnati defense has been against TEs. They’ve allowed, by far, the most FPPG to the position and, over the last four games, they’re giving up 94.3 YPG, 6.8 rec/gm, and 2.0 TDs/gm just to TEs. It’d be nice (for Freiermuth) if the other two main Steelers tight ends, Jonnu Smith and Darnell Washington, didn’t also eat up so many snaps, but Freiermuth has emerged as a reliable target for Aaron Rodgers in recent games, and the veteran QB tends to feed pass catchers who have proven to be sure-handed options.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Houston Texans | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.8k | at TEN

Value D/ST (DraftKings Preferred): Los Angeles Chargers | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4.6k | at JAX

Contrarian D/ST: Denver Broncos | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4.6k | vs. KC

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!