Top Sunday NFL DFS Plays Week #11 | Targeting Multiple High-Profile Match-Ups!

Top DFS Plays & Props for Sunday's NFL Main Slate Action!

Author

Ryan Humphries
November 16, 2024

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

Top Pick’Em Offers 11/17/24 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

.

LineStar DFS Picks & Prop Shows

w/ Tyler Wiemann & Shannon Sommerville.

Stay up-to-date with all of the latest DFS and prop betting content by subscribing to the LineStar YouTube channel!

Main Slate Rundown 📝

Week 11 brings us an 11-game (DraftKings)/12-game (FanDuel) main slate! As usual, the SNF game (CIN @ LAC) resides on the FD main slate but is excluded on DK. This Sunday’s slate of games may not be the best we’ve seen this season, but there’s no doubt that a few of these match-ups should be highly entertaining. Bills/Chiefs has been a fun one the last several seasons. Ravens/Steelers is a heated divisional rivalry that could be a banger with major playoff implications. Finally, Seahawks/49ers is a potential shootout in an NFC West that is still wide open. Let’s get into it! Best of luck.

Note: I’ve had a HECTIC day and getting a late jump on this main slate article so I’m going to keep the player write-ups very abbreviated this week.

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

  • LV @ MIA (1:00 ET, 43.5 O/U): Winds around 15 mph.

  • GB @ CHI (1:00 ET, 40.5 O/U): 10-15 mph winds with a low-end chance for showers.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Brock Purdy, SF | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.4k | vs. SEA

Purdy is up to an NFL-leading 272.7 pass YPG and, with CMC back in action, this 49ers offense is vastly elevated even in the wake of losing Brandon Aiyuk for the season (George Kittle is a little banged up as well -- currently questionable to play). The 49ers own a 27.3 implied team total -- second highest on the slate -- and Purdy draws a plus match-up against a Seahawks defense allowing 270.5 pass YPG and 2.0 pass TDs/gm to QBs over their last four games. Purdy is an all-around solid option once again.

 

Russell Wilson, PIT | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.8k | vs. BAL

The Russ Wilson era in Pittsburgh has gone off without a hitch and, by now, we all know that the Ravens’ defense has been one of the most extreme pass funnels in the NFL. Baltimore ranks 25th in pass DVOA but is 4th in rush DVOA. Baltimore is allowing an absurd 29.3 FPPG to QBs when they’ve been on the road this season. The Ravens have also struggled against deep shots and have allowed the most 20+ yard completions in the NFL. Wilson has been pretty solid on deep throws since he took over the starting gig and the Steelers have one of the best deep/contested-catch WRs in the NFL in George Pickens. Pitt also got a WR room upgrade with the acquisition of Mike Williams, who is also known as a quality deep threat. So Russell Wilson could shine here and, if there is one game to watch in the 1 o’clock ET window, it’s 100% this marquee match-up.

 

Jameis Winston, CLE | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.2k | at NO

Winston is poised to make his third start of the season as the Browns come out of their week 10 bye. We’ve seen one strong performance (vs. BAL) and one fairly ugly performance (vs. LAC) out of him thus far… and that’s pretty much what you get out of Jameis Winston. Sometimes it’s great, sometimes it’s ugly, but it’s always entertaining. Winston has thrown for 40+ times in both starts, so we know we’re likely getting high passing volume out of him. The Saints are also without multiple starting CBs, whether it be due to injury or to recently being traded (Marshon Lattimore).

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Justin Herbert, LAC | DK: N/A, FD: $7.3k | vs. CIN

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.8k | vs. SEA

It wasn’t a massive season debut for CMC in week 10 but there was certainly no “easing him in”. McCaffrey logged an 88% snap% right out of the gates and had 20 total opportunities (13 rush/7 target) while backup RBs Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo had just one carry apiece. So, if we’re getting healthy, full-workload CMC, then yeah… it’s a bit of a no-brainer to keep him on the DFS radar. The Seahawks have also allowed the 5th most FPPG to RBs L4Games.

 

Kyren Williams, LAR | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.2k | at NE

Williams has now been held out of the endzone in back-to-back games but it’s a good spot for him to find paydirt this week as the Pats have allowed the 4th most rushing TDs to RBs this season. New England is also 26th in rush DVOA and has given up +31% more FPPG to RBs when at home. Williams’ 91% snap% on the season leads all RBs on the slate by a WIDE margin -- next-closest is Breece Hall (76% snap%).

 

De’Von Achane, MIA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.7k | vs. LV

The Raiders are 29th in rush DVOA, allow the 4th most adjusted FPPG to RBs, and give up +29% more FPPG to RBs when playing on the road. Achane was held in check by the Rams last week but he still dominated the snap share with a 70% snap%. In the five games that QB Tua Tagovailoa has started, Achane is averaging 7.0 targets/gm -- good for a 21.6% Target%, which is absurd for an RB. He has just one less target than team-target leader Tyreek Hill in those games. So we’re viewing Achane as a solid “WR” play with rushing upside here.

 

Kareem Hunt, KC | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8k | at BUF

This may be Hunt’s last game as the Chiefs’ bellcow back with Isiah Pacheco’s looming return (Pacheco is out this week but is looking more and more likely to play next week). Hunt’s usage has been elite since signing with the Chiefs ahead of week four and he has found the endzone in four of the last five games. Last week, Hunt was shut down on the ground but he became heavily involved as a receiver with seven receptions on 10 targets for 65 yards. Now he’ll get a chance to rack up maybe one final big fantasy score against the Bills, who have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to RBs this season.

 

Nick Chubb, CLE | DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k | at NO

Chubb isn’t operating at 100% health and you have to wonder if the 2-7 Browns will even flirt with the idea of giving him 20+ touches in any game for the rest of this season. But if there is a game where he could look like vintage Nick Chubb, it should be this week while the Browns are fresh off of their bye. The Saints have allowed the 2nd most rushing TDs (12) and the 3rd most FPPG to RBs while ranking 31st in rush DVOA, ahead of only the woeful Carolina Panthers. New Orleans is also allowing +41% more FPPG to RBs at home. We saw Chubb play a 61% snap% in his second game back in action, but that dipped down to a 35% snap% in the last game in what was a negative game script. Still, if Chubb can get around 15-ish touches once again, this is a match-up where he can pay off these modest price points.

 

Audric Estime, DEN | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.4k | vs. ATL

Possibly the new RB1 in Denver? HC Sean Payton stated he wanted to get Estime more involved ahead of their last game and it didn’t turn out to be just coach speak. In week 10, Estime handled 14 carries on a 45% snap% while fellow Broncos RBs Javonte Williams (29% snap%, one carry, two targets) and Jaleel McLaughlin (12% snap%, two carries) were much less involved. Estime had a tough match-up with the Chiefs (3rd in rush DVOA) last week but could find more room against the Falcons (19th in rush DVOA). Not sure if I would be rolling Estime out in cash formats but he’s worth a dart throw in GPPs for sure.

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Chase Brown, CIN | DK: N/A, FD: $6.8k | at LAC

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. JAX

I’m just waiting on the week when ARSB finally gets peppered with another 15+ target afternoon. Touchdowns have sort of been bailing St. Brown’s fantasy scores this season but the volume certainly hasn’t been elite with just 7.4 targets/gm. Perhaps this is the ARSB explosion week considering the Jags are allowing the 4th most adjusted FPPG to WRs. The Lions offense (slate-leading 30.3 implied points) should put up plenty of points in this one and the absence of TE Sam LaPorta (shoulder/out) may open up more opportunities for St. Brown in the middle of the field.

 

George Pickens, PIT | DK: $7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. BAL

Pickens L3Games w/ R. Wilson starting at QB: 26.6% Target%, 41.9% AirYard%, 15.8-yard aDOT, 18.0 PPR PPG. WRs who have high target shares combined with a 15+ yard aDOT are fairly rare and we already discussed in the Russell Wilson spotlight how vulnerable this Ravens’ secondary has been to deep plays. The Ravens have also allowed the most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Pickens: 72% PerimeterRoute%). Should be a big day for Pickens, though, he’ll likely be fairly popular.

 

Khalil Shakir, BUF | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.5k | vs. KC

No Keon Coleman (wrist/out), no Dalton Kincaid (knee/out), and Amari Cooper (wrist/questionable) is looking very iffy to suit up. Shakir should be the go-to receiving weapon for QB Josh Allen this Sunday and he heads in having garnered a team-leading 24.4% Target% L4Games. Shakir also sets up well in this match-up out of the slot (75% SlotRoute%) -- the Chiefs have been very stout on the outside, allowing the 2nd fewest FPPG to perimeter WRs, but they have allowed the most FPPG to slot WRs this season.

 

Calvin Ridley, TEN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.4k | vs. MIN

A chalky Calvin Ridley seems highly suspect but, in the three games since DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs, Ridley has commanded a monster 36.4% Target% and an astronomical 53.2% AirYard%. The Vikings' secondary has improved a bit lately, but they’re still a strong match-up for opposing WRs as they’re allowing the 3rd most adjusted FPPG to the position.

 

Cedric Tillman, CLE | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.5k | at NO

Tillman has been a go-to target for QB Jameis Winston and he has logged 96% and 90% snap rates in the last two games while combining for 20 targets, 13 receptions, 174 yards, and 3 TDs. If Winston throws it 40+ times again, as he has in his first two starts, then Tillman will be fed targets no matter what. And, as discussed, this is a pretty depleted Saints secondary at the moment.

 

Jauan Jennings, SF | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.2k | vs. SEA

In week 10, Jennings commanded a team-leading 11 targets (28.2% Target%) while running a route on 92.3% of Brock Purdy’s dropbacks and playing 91% of the snaps. Jennings has run 50% of his routes out of the slot this season and the Seahawks have surrendered the most FPPG to slot WRs over their last four games.

 

Kayshon Boutte, NE | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.9k | vs. LAR

Boutte has logged snap rates of 97% and 96% over the last two games and no other Pats WR has played more than a 78% snap% in that span. So it seems like New England is trying to develop a connection between the second-year WR and their rookie QB Drake Maye. Boutte has yet to make a splash like other WRs from his alma mater (LSU) but when a guy is playing a near every-down role and is this cheap, they’re tough to ignore. Boutte, who has run 86% of routes on the perimeter, received a promising match-up against the Rams, who have allowed the 5th most FPPG to perimeter WRs this season.

 

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: N/A, FD: $9.6k | at LAC

Quentin Johnston, LAC | DK: N/A, FD: $6k | vs. CIN

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.4k | at BUF

Kelce has come alive in recent weeks, accounting for a vintage 34.2% Target% L3Games while averaging 13.3 targets/gm, 10.7 receptions/gm, and 84.7 YPG with two TDs in that span. Kelce has a long history of performing well against the Bills, who are a middling 13th in TE DVOA. The Bills have also given up +50% more FPPG to TEs at home (last nine games). Not sure if paying up at TE is “the move” this week, but it’s hard to argue against Kelce given the way he’s been connecting with Mahomes lately.

 

Dawson Knox, BUF | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.1k | vs. KC

On the other side from Kelce, we’ll have a much cheaper Dawson Knox, who should be playing in a near-every-down role while Dalton Kincaid is sidelined. Knox is not an overly talented receiving TE but he should be fairly involved in a Bills offense that is down multiple key receiving threats. The Chiefs have also given up the most receiving YPG (77.6) and FPPG to TEs this season. As mentioned in the Shakir spotlight, the Chiefs have also really struggled against the slot WR position, so defending receivers in the middle of the field has been a major point of weakness for an otherwise stout KC defense.

 

Davis Allen, LAR | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.2k | at NE

Allen appears to have taken over the lead TE role for the Rams. His snap rate has increased in every game since week seven and last week Allen logged an 80% snap% compared to just a 16% snap% for Colby Parkinson and 13% snap% for Hunter Long. Allen also had an 88% RouteParticipation% in week 10’s match-up with Miami, and that led to six targets. He’s more of a min-priced dart throw on DraftKings and slotting him in at TE (on DK) opens up many possibilities elsewhere in your lineup(s).

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Minnesota Vikings | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5k | at TEN

Value D/ST: Cleveland Browns | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4.1k | at NO

Contrarian D/ST: Los Angeles Rams | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.7k | at NE

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Running Back (Game Stack)

Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, Kareem Hunt

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Russell Wilson, George Pickens, Zay Flowers

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (FanDuel Main Slate Only SNF Game Stack)

Justin Herbert, Quentin Johnston, Ja’Marr Chase

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Kyren Williams + Rams D/ST

Full Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Brock Purdy, Juaun Jennings, Christian McCaffrey

Value Team Stack | Cheap QB/WR/RB

Jameis Winston, Cedric Tillman, Nick Chubb

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp Receiver (From a low O/U game)

Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Calvin Ridley

Sunday Night Football Showdown Cheat Sheet

Note: No SNF cheat sheet… yet! I’ll get one together tomorrow afternoon. Right now, I just want to get this main slate newsletter pushed out ASAP since it’s already coming out much later than I’d like.

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!