Top Sunday NFL DFS Plays Week #12 | Finding Upside in Some Unusual Places

Top DFS Plays & Props for Sunday's NFL Main Slate Action!

Author

Ryan Humphries
November 23, 2024

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 📝

We’re back for another busy NFL Sunday! A 10-game main slate awaits on DraftKings, and an 11-game main slate is lined up on FanDuel (w/ the inclusion of the SNF game). I won’t pretend as if this is the juiciest slate we’ve seen this season, as there are quite a few lopsided spreads and match-ups on the board. But an NFL Sunday is an NFL Sunday, and there is cash to be made on the DFS front! Let’s dive in and see what we can cook up this week. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

  • TB @ NYG (1:00 ET, 41.0 O/U): 15 mph sustained winds with gusts upwards of 25 mph. Downfield pass attacks and the kicking games should get a bit of a downgrade here.

  • ARI @ SEA (4:25 ET, 47.5 O/U): A few showers are expected. Nothing too heavy but the ball/field could be a bit slick at times.

  • SF @ GB (4:25 ET, 46.5 O/U): A stray shower is possible. Chilly temps in the 40s.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jared Goff, DET | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.5k | at IND

Goff is coming off of a monster game where he threw for 400+ yards and four TDs while putting up a perfect passer rating against the Jags in week 11. It was easily his best fantasy performance of the season but we’ll see if he can go for back-to-back big games. This Lions offense is a true juggernaut that is strong in every facet of the game. As a result, Goff hasn’t had to take on significant pass volume, attempting just 27.0 passes per game. That said, he has excelled in efficiency, ranking 2nd in the NFL with a 73.0% Completion%, 1st with 9.2 yards per attempt, and 2nd with a 7.4% Touchdown%. Goff will draw a strong match-up versus a Colts defense that is allowing the 4th highest completion rate (69.4%) and the 10th most adjusted FPPG to QBs this season. The Lions lead the slate with a 28.5 implied team total, and if most of the Detroit TDs come through the air, as opposed to on the ground between RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, then it could be another big day for Goff.

 

Kyler Murray, ARI | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.8k | at SEA

The Cardinals are fresh off of their bye week and draw a divisional match-up versus the Seahawks. Arizona currently leads the division at 6-4, but the NFC West is still wide open, so a win on Sunday would go a long way for either team to improve their postseason chances. Murray was outstanding in his last game versus the Jets, completing 22-of-24 pass attempts for 266 yards and a TD while tacking on 21 yards rushing and two rushing scores. He was also less than a foot short of adding a fourth TD. Murray ranks 5th among NFL QBs with a 69.2% Completion%, and he’s always a threat to do damage with his legs while looking like a toddler holding an iPad and running away from their parent. The Seahawks are fairly middle-of-the-road by most pass metrics, and this game has perhaps the best chance on this slate to be a back-and-forth type of shootout, given its one-point spread and high 47.5 O/U.

 

Tommy DeVito, NYG | DK: $4k, FD: $7k | vs. TB

I probably won’t be interested in DeVito on FanDuel, but DraftKings is a different story. When you can get a $4,000 QB, especially one with prior NFL starting experience who draws a plus match-up, it’s often going to be worth giving them a shot in some aggressive lineup builds. DeVito appeared in nine games last year, starting six, and he put up some very serviceable numbers -- 64.0% Comp%, 89.2 Passer Rating, and an 8:3 TD:INT ratio. Nothing spectacular, but serviceable. DeVito also showed some dual-threat upside as he tacked on 195 yards and a TD while averaging 5.4 YPC on the ground last season. He also couldn’t ask for a better match-up. The Bucs’ secondary has been getting abused all season and Tampa Bay has surrendered THE most FPPG to QBs on the year. At a flat $4,000 on DraftKings, anything around or above 15 DKFP would represent excellent value out of DeVito.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

De’Von Achane, MIA | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.1k | vs. NE

We know Achane is a freak athlete with major big-play upside, but he’s also undersized at 5’9”, 190 lbs, so volume has always been the concern. However, the Dolphins have been willing to give him 18-20 touches fairly consistently, including plenty of usage as a receiver. Achane has averaged 6.5 targets/gm in the six games that Tua Tagovailoa has started, which works out to a 19.8% Target%, which is elite for an RB and ranks 2nd on the team behind only Tyreek Hill (22.3% Target%) in those games. Even though the threat of Raheem Mostert vulturing some goal-line work is always there, Achane has still been playing most of the redzone snaps (61% RZ snap% L4Games) and he handled a carry inside the five last week. It’s a rock-solid match-up versus the Pats who are 28th in rush DVOA and have allowed the 7th most adjusted FPPG to RBs.

 

Kenneth Walker III, SEA | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. ARI

As mentioned earlier, this game looks like a great DFS environment to target given its close spread and high total. There are many potential scripts in this match-up that could result in a heavy dose of work for Kenneth Walker III. Walker has averaged 18.1 touches/gm this season but could easily take on 20 carries and a handful of targets this week in what is a crucial divisional game. The Cardinals have allowed the highest rush yards after contact this season and are also giving up the 7th most receiving YPG to RBs.

 

James Conner, ARI | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.7k | at SEA

We’ll stay in the SEA/ARI match-up and go to the other side of the field to spotlight James Conner. Despite only having five TDs on the season, Conner has been among the most consistent fantasy performers in the NFL when healthy. He is averaging 20.3 touches/gm L4Games and, on the season, he is tied for 1st (with JK Dobbins) in broken tackles and is 7th in yards after contact per attempt. It’s a good spot versus the Seahawks who are allowing the 10th most adjusted FPPG to RBs.

 

Kareem Hunt, KC | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.5k | at CAR

Hunt had his least productive game of the season last week, supplying just 60 yards rushing on 14 carries with zero targets and TDs. The initial expectation was that Isiah Pacheco was going to be ready to make his return this week, but HC Andy Reid announced that Pacheco would not play this Sunday. So, as a result of those two factors, Hunt has seen a sizable dip in his DFS price points, despite drawing a tantalizing match-up. We should assume that he’ll get to be the Chiefs’ bellcow back for at least one more week and the Panthers are dead last in rush DVOA while allowing THE most FPPG to RBs on the season. Anything short of 80 total yards and a TD would be a moderate surprise from Hunt in this game.

 

Brian Robinson Jr., WAS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7.9k | vs. DAL

Robinson is tied for 5th in yards after contact per attempt and has punched in seven TDs despite playing in just eight games. He’s a load to handle, and the script should work in his favor as the Commanders (-10.5) step in, tied with the Chiefs as the heaviest favorites on this slate versus the sputtering Cowboys. Dallas is also 27th in rush DVOA, has given up the 2nd most rushing TDs to RBs (13), and has allowed the 4th most FPPG to RBs. Robinson should find the endzone this week and a 100+ yard game should be a real possibility as well.

 

Bucky Irving, TB | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.8k | at NYG

I like this low-owned Bucky Irving play, especially as a pivot away from teammate Rachaad White (DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.9k) who is looking like he may be a tad chalky on this slate, particularly on DraftKings where he has a 20% pOwn%. The Bucs have exclusively been involved in neutral/trailing game scripts lately, which has led to White seeing a ton of targets, and the TD luck has also gone in his favor. However, the Bucs are six-point favorites in this game versus the Giants, so they should be able to play with a lead and place a heavier focus on their ground game. Bucky Irving (5.1 YPC) has been considerably more efficient running the ball than Rachaad White (3.8 YPC). So Irving could very well handle the bulk of the rush attempts, and he has proven to be a serviceable receiver out of the backfield as well. Realistically, both Bucs’ RBs could end up with solid fantasy performances, as we have seen on multiple occasions over the last month-plus. The Giants are giving up the 3rd most FPPG to RBs L4Games, after all. But, from ownership and predictive game flow perspectives, I’d side with Irving over White if I had to choose.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Nico Collins, HOU | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.9k | vs. TEN

After missing five games with a hamstring injury, Nico Collins was able to knock the rust off against the Cowboys in his return last week, posting four receptions on seven targets for 54 yards. And, if you watched that game, you’ll know that Collins had a 60+ (maybe 70+) yard TD on the first Texans’ offensive play of the game called back due to a penalty that had no real impact on the play. So it could’ve been a much better day, and with the Texans dominating the score from start to finish, Collins was only asked to play 47% of the snaps. It would be safe to assume that he’ll get back up to his normal 80+% snap% this week, and he’ll draw a strong WR/CB match-up versus Jarvis Brownlee Jr., who has allowed 1.36 yards per route covered and has been the Colts’ most-targeted cornerback.

 

Tyreek Hill, MIA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.3k | vs. NE

I believe it’s going to be a big day for this Dolphins offense, and there is a good chance that we’ll see Tyreek Hill break off for one of those monster 25+ FP games that we saw out of him on many occasions last season. He’s playing through a wrist injury at the moment, but he has stated that he is going to play through it, and it didn’t seem to hold him back last week. For his upside, he just seems a bit too cheap, and this is a promising match-up versus the Pats (31st in pass DVOA) whose secondary is fairly banged up -- top CB Christian Gonzalez and starting safety Kyle Dugger are both questionable to play this Sunday.

 

Mike Evans, TB | DK: $7k, FD: $8k | at NYG

I’m viewing Evans as the ultimate low-owned GPP play this week. He could put up a dud in his first game back from a hamstring injury that has held him out three games. However, this is also the first game he’ll play since 2022 where Chris Godwin has been absent. Evans is always a threat for a big play or two, but the target volume has not always been very high. The Giants are 31st in WR1 DVOA, and if he is indeed close to full strength, Evans may be in line for a 10+ target day and is currently being projected for < 5% ownership on both DK and FD.

 

Josh Downs, IND | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.9k | vs. DET

Downs had a nice day with Anthony Richardson taking back the reigns at QB last week as he caught all five of his targets for 84 yards and a TD. So, perhaps Downs doesn’t NEED Joe Flacco in at QB to be a quality fantasy asset. This game should also feature more passing on the Colts side, considering how unstoppable the Lions’ offense can be. And Downs, who has an 84% SlotRoute%, should find plenty of success against the Lions, who have been a pass funnel defense that has struggled mightily against the slot. Detroit has allowed the 4th most FPPG, most receiving yards, and most receptions (9.1) per game to slot receivers.

 

Calvin Ridley, TEN | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.3k | at HOU

At these modest price points, I’m willing to keep Ridley in the player pool in hopes of another ceiling game. In the four games without DeAndre Hopkins, Ridley has commanded an elite 32.5% Target% and 51.4% AirYard%. Even with a poor QB like Will Levis throwing him the ball, you simply can’t ignore a WR who is getting over a 30% target share with over half of the team’s air yards heading in his direction. This Texans’ defense has also been a clear pass funnel -- they’re very tough against the run but have allowed the 8th most FPPG to WRs L4Games.

 

Rome Odunze, CHI | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.4k | vs. MIN

All three of the main Bears WRs (Moore, Allen, Odunze) saw at least seven targets last week but Odunze led the pack with 10 targets (32.3% Target%) with a majority ownership of the total air yards (53.3% AirYard%). Whether or not he’s emerging as Caleb Williams’ go-to WR is up for debate, but he does draw the most favorable match-up this week. Odunze has run nearly half of his routes on the right perimeter, and the Vikings have allowed the 6th most FPPG to right perimeter WRs.

 

Kayshon Boutte, NE | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.1k | at MIA

Boutte has played no less than a 96% snap% in the last three games. With improved QB play from Drake Maye, it’s likely only a matter of time before Boutte comes through with a fairly big game. If you need a value WR, you could do much worse than Boutte.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.2k | at CAR

Kelce posted a major dud last week but if there’s ever a great spot to bounce back, it’s this one. WR DeAndre Hopkins draws a tougher match-up since he’ll see plenty of Jaycee Horn (0.65 yards per coverage route) so Kelce should be the go-to option. The Panthers are 29th in TE DVOA and have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to the position.

 

Hunter Henry, NE | DK: $4k, FD: $5.2k | at MIA

We gave Kayshon Boutte a spotlight above, but Hunter Henry has really been the main target for the Pats with Drake Maye under center. Since Maye took over in week six, Henry has led the team with a 22.0% Target%, and he has played at least an 85% snap% in five straight games. Miami has also really struggled to defend the tight end lately. Over their last four games, they’ve given up 9.0 receptions/gm, 85.3 YPG, 0.5 TDs/gm, and the 5th most FPPG to TEs.

 

Theo Johnson, NYG | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.8k | vs. TB

Johnson has logged between an 85% and 97% snap% in five consecutive games and perhaps the change at QB does him some good. Johnson’s targets were trending up lately to begin with and, while star rookie WR Malik Nabers (groin/questionable) is expected to suit up, he may not be at 100%. The Bucs have also been awful against TEs lately. Over their last four games, they’ve given up 7.5 receptions/gm, 85.5 YPG, 1.3 TDs/gm, and the 3rd most FPPG to TEs.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Houston Texans | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.7k | vs. TEN

Value D/ST: Green Bay Packers | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4k | vs. SF

Contrarian D/ST: Minnesota Vikings | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.8k | at CHI

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Running Back (Game Stack)

Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., Kenneth Walker III

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, Calvin Ridley

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (FanDuel Main Slate Only SNF Game Stack)

Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Puka Nacua

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Joe Mixon + Texans D/ST

Full Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Brian Robinson Jr.

Value Team Stack | Cheap QB/WR/RB

Tommy DeVito, Malik Nabers, Tyrone Tracy Jr.

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp Receiver (From a low O/U game)

Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, Brock Bowers

Sunday Night Football Showdown Cheat Sheet

Note: No SNF cheat sheet… yet! I’ll get one together tomorrow afternoon!

 

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!