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LineStar NFL DFS & Prop Shows w/ Tyler Wiemann

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Keep an eye out for Week 13 NFL videos from Tyler by following the LineStar YouTube link above!

Main Slate Rundown 📝

Week 13 brings us a ten-game main slate, and at first glance, the defining feature is the sheer number of low totals across the board. The majority of matchups sit in the high 30s or low 40s, and only four games crack the mid-40s. It sets the stage for a slate that could easily play tighter and lower-scoring than what we have seen in recent weeks, which typically increases the importance of avoiding missteps. Smaller scoring environments tend to punish wasted salary or thin value plays more than usual, while rewarding lineups that simply get solid production from each roster spot.

There are still a few matchups that could open things up, but most games project as slower, more methodical, and defensive-leaning. That usually means concentrated volume becomes even more valuable, touchdown equity matters a bit more, and game stacks should be chosen more selectively. We will break down the slate position by position and highlight where the best paths to ceiling performances can come from on a week that might require a little more precision than usual. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report 🌦️

• JAX at TEN (1:00 ET, 41.5 O/U): There is a chance of rain, but current indications suggest the better rain chances arrive pregame rather than during the game. Worth monitoring, but not a major concern right now.

• SF at CLE (1:00 ET, 35.5 O/U): This is the one game with true weather risk. The forecast shows a solid chance of rain paired with sustained winds around 20 mph and gusts pushing around 35 mph. Conditions could shift slightly, but this projects as a spot where deeper throws and longer field goals may become more difficult.

• LAR at CAR (1:00 ET, 44.5 O/U): A decent chance for rain here. We will want to check the radar closer to kickoff to get a better handle on the timing and severity, but it is one of the games with some potential weather impact.

• ATL at NYJ (1:00 ET, 39.5 O/U): Another contest with a decent chance of rain. Winds look to fall in the 10-15 mph range with occasional stronger gusts. Not a red-flag situation yet, but it belongs on the “monitor” list.

• NO at MIA (1:00 ET, 42.5 O/U): A shower or brief downpour is possible, though coverage looks light. Likely dry or mostly dry, with winds holding around 10 mph.

• BUF at PIT (4:25 ET, 45.5 O/U): A chance for rain showers with roughly 10 mph sustained winds. Similar to the other “possible rain” games, it is worth revisiting on Sunday morning, but there are no strong concerns at the moment.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $7.5k, FD: $9.4k | at PIT

Allen enters Week 13 as the clear top ceiling quarterback on the slate, and even at his elevated salary, he remains one of the strongest pay-up options available. Last week’s stumble against Houston ended a four-game streak of 23+ DKFP, but it came against one of the league’s stingiest defenses and followed a 47.7-point eruption against Tampa Bay. With extra rest coming off the Thursday night loss, Buffalo should be far more prepared to attack a Pittsburgh defense that has been vulnerable to opposing quarterbacks. The Steelers have allowed the 4th-most adjusted FPPG to QBs this season, giving up 19 passing touchdowns and multiple rushing scores through 11 games. Allen’s dual-threat profile always keeps his ceiling intact, and his 18 passing touchdowns paired with 10 more on the ground underscore that upside. Even though many of his biggest performances have come at home, the matchup sets up well for a bounce-back effort if you are building around a premium quarterback.

C.J. Stroud, HOU | DK: $5k, FD: $6.8k | at IND

Stroud has cleared concussion protocol, and head coach Demeco Ryans has confirmed that he’ll be back on the field this week. Before his concussion, Stroud was in strong form with 18.4, 28.8, and 25.7 fantasy points in three of his last four full games, and his ability to push the ball downfield gives him a real ceiling at this price. Houston’s supporting cast has also improved during his absence, with Jayden Higgins emerging as a legit WR2, slot man Christian Kirk is healthy, and TE Cade Stover is back from IR. The matchup is fairly neutral, but Indianapolis can be beaten through the air, and they’ve forced the 3rd-highest opponent PassPlay% (62.9%) this season -- only Jacksonville and Seattle have seen a higher opponent PassPlay%. With Stroud healthy, motivated with the Texans in the playoff hunt, and underpriced for his talent level, he stands out as one of the slate’s strongest value quarterbacks.

Tyrod Taylor, NYJ | DK: $4.3k, FD: $6.7k | vs. ATL

If you really want to go deep diving at QB, especially on DraftKings, Tyrod Taylor is intriguing for more aggressive lineup builds. He’s been decent in his two starts this season, scoring 13.8 FP against the Ravens last week and 18.7 FP against the Bucs back in week three. The 36-year-old vet has also continued to flash some rushing upside, combining for 67 yards on 13 carries across his two starts. For what it’s worth, this will also be his first start of the season in a non-hostile environment (though, admittedly, Jets fans can be pretty hostile against their own guys). For much of the season, the Falcons (8th in pass DVOA) have been one of the toughest pass defenses in the NFL. However, they’ve stumbled in a couple of recent games, and they’re only two weeks removed from allowing 448 pass yards and three TDs to Bryce Young. It may not be pretty, but Taylor can do enough on the field this Sunday to pay off his modest DFS price points, especially the $4,300 tag on DK.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $9.3k, FD: $8.6k | at CLE

High winds (20+ mph sustained, 35+ mph gusts) in Cleveland on Sunday should funnel both offenses toward the run game and shorter, low-aDOT passing, which fits McCaffrey’s role perfectly. He already owns the most secure workload in fantasy, averaging 18.1 carries per game while also ranking second in the entire NFL with 81 receptions -- as a running back. Cleveland has been elite against the run this year, sitting first in rush DVOA and allowing the fourth-fewest adjusted FPPG to the position, but CMC is as matchup-proof as they come. Recent trends also tilt in his favor, as the Browns have allowed 148.6 scrimmage yards per game and the 10th-most RB FPPG over their last four. A 30-touch workload with 150+ total yards and multiple scoring chances is absolutely on the table for CMC, given this setup.

De’Von Achane, MIA | DK: $8.3k, FD: $8.7k | vs. NO

Few running backs bring Achane’s combination of workload, explosiveness, and receiving volume, and he comes out of the Week 12 bye in excellent form. He handled 21 carries and five receptions in the win over Washington before the break, turning that into 165 total yards and 24.5 DKFP without finding the end zone. That performance extended a run of four straight games with 15+ DKFP and came just two weeks after his 225-scrimmage-yard, two-score eruption against Buffalo. His ability to create chunk plays on the ground while also contributing heavily as a receiver gives him one of the most bankable workloads on the slate. The matchup with New Orleans rates as relatively neutral overall, but the Saints have shown cracks recently, giving up 131.4 rushing yards per game and five RB touchdowns in their past five outings. If Miami continues leaning on Achane as the centerpiece of the offense, he profiles as one of Week 13’s strongest pay-up options and a clear threat to post another slate-breaking performance.

Jaylen Warren, PIT | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.2k | vs. BUF

This matchup sets up extremely well for Warren, who projects for single-digit ownership despite facing a Buffalo defense allowing 5.3 yards per carry and 15 touchdowns to running backs, both among the worst marks in the league. The Bills' run defense has been highly susceptible to explosive plays, allowing the 2nd-highest explosive play rate (15.6%) as well as the 3rd-highest avoided tackle rate (24.0%). Kenneth Gainwell has been a bit of a thorn in the side of Warren’s fantasy upside, but Warren has still clearly operated as Pittsburgh’s primary back, averaging 14.1 carries per game and handling over 66% of the team’s RB rushing attempts while playing more than half of the snaps. His red-zone involvement has also been strong with 25 carries inside the 20, and he continues to earn meaningful passing-game work with a 19% TPRR (target per route run). The Steelers would also be wise to keep Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense off the field this Sunday. That could lead to 20+ Warren touches, as long as the Steelers keep things close (or lead) on the scoreboard.

Breece Hall, NYJ | DK: $6k, FD: $7.4k | vs. ATL

The Jets’ offense continues to funnel through Hall, and his recent usage keeps him firmly in the mix for Week 13. Three of his four highest snap rates from this season (at least a 71% snap%) have come in the last three games. He flashed his ceiling back in Week 8 with his 35.9 DKFP explosion against Cincinnati, and he turned 20 touches into 119 total yards last week despite the offense stalling out around him. Tyrod Taylor remaining the starter is a slight boost for Hall’s receiving outlook, as the two showed solid rhythm in the passing game, and Hall has combined for 10 targets across Taylor’s two starts. Atlanta’s run defense has held up well at times, but the numbers still profile this as a great matchup for Hall. The Falcons check in at 25th in rush DVOA and, more recently, they’re allowing nearly 160 scrimmage YPG and 1.0 TDs/gm to RBs, over their last four. They’ve also given up +33% more FPPG to RBs when playing on the road (over their last nine games).

Devin Neal, NOP | DK: $5k, FD: $5.9k | at MIA

Alvin Kamara (knee) has been ruled out for Week 13’s action, and Devin Neal, who was previously questionable due to an ankle injury, has shed his injury tag. That opens the door for Neal to carry most of the RB workload for the Saints this week. He played 86% of the snaps after Kamara exited last week’s game, and what stands out the most is that he was targeted seven times. Miami’s run defense has greatly improved as the season has progressed, but they’re still giving up plenty of receptions to RBs (5.3 rec/gm L4Games) and, even as 5.5-point underdogs, Neal has a real chance to flirt with 20 touches in this game.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10k | vs. MIN

JSN enters Week 13 as the slate’s premier ceiling option at wide receiver, and his recent production backs that up in a big way. He has cleared 20 DKFP in seven straight games and is averaging 28.8 DKFP during that stretch, with six 100-yard outings in his last seven contests. Last week’s eruption against Tennessee (8/167/2 on 10 targets) was just the latest reminder of how dominant he has been, and he has now piled up 1,313 yards and seven touchdowns on the season. Even with his salary rising to the top of both sites, he has consistently beaten baseline expectations nearly every week. Minnesota has been tough on opposing receivers, but Smith-Njigba has reached the point where matchup concerns matter far less. His target share, explosive-play ability, and weekly consistency keep his ceiling among the highest on the slate, and he remains a strong pay-up option for anyone building around a premium WR anchor.

Brian Thomas Jr., JAX | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.5k | at TEN

BTJ has missed the last three games due to an ankle injury, but he has shed his injury tag and is set to return this week. Following a stellar rookie campaign, Thomas has had an incredibly underwhelming sophomore season up to this point. And, while his lack of production is not entirely his fault, with some inconsistent QB play from Trevor Lawrence, the general public’s outlook on BTJ should keep his ownership firmly in the single digits, even in a smash matchup. The Titans have allowed 83.4 receiving YPG to opposing WR1s this season (2nd most) and check in at 31st in WR1 DVOA. In two games against the Titans last season, Thomas brought in 15-of-22 targets for 177 yards and a TD. Jakobi Meyers will continue to run as a top receiving option for the Jags, but he likely serves as more of a complementary option to Brian Thomas Jr., and shouldn’t impact his status as the team’s WR1. It’s certainly risky, but this could very well be a long-awaited BTJ spike week.

Khalil Shakir, BUF | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.3k | at PIT

Shakir has been the most reliable pass catcher in this Bills offense, and he’s coming off a season-high in targets (10), receptions (8), and receiving yards (110) in a week 12 clash against a tough Texans defense. Shakir has primarily made his living out of the slot, where he has run 71% of his routes this season. He should receive a major matchup upgrade this week, as the Steelers have given up the 2nd-most FPPG to slot WRs this season.

Chimere Dike, TEN | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.6k | vs. JAX

Dike has taken over as Tennessee’s most reliable wideout under interim coach Mike McCoy, with a 70% route rate and over 45 receiving yards per game across his last five. He leads the team in red-zone targets during that stretch and has four total touchdowns, including two on punt returns, highlighting how dynamic he has been. His recent usage spike also shows the Titans are making an effort to feature him more heavily. This is an ugly offense that is desperate for playmakers, and Dike has done a fairly admirable job at providing a much-needed spark for this team. The matchup with Jacksonville adds to the appeal. The Jaguars sit in the bottom half of the league against receivers and, while they’ve primarily struggled against perimeter WRs (which is not where Dike primarily lines up -- 71% slot%), Dike will still see his fair share of opportunities.

John Metchie III, NYJ | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5.7k | vs. ATL

I don’t want to go too crazy with exposure to this Jets offense, but there is some real potential value to be had with some of these guys. Metchie steps into another expanded role this week with the Jets still thin at receiver. He has produced 13.5 and 18.5 DKFP with a pair of TDs in his last two games, both against top-tier pass defenses, while handling a 19.2% target share and logging an 82 percent route rate over that stretch. His rapport with Tyrod Taylor has been noticeable, and last week he led all Jets wideouts in snaps, targets, and receptions, finishing second on the team only to Breece Hall in receiving yards. The matchup with Atlanta is far less daunting than what he has seen recently. The Falcons have surrendered over 30 points in two of their last three games and are giving up 7.1 yards per pass attempt during that span. With the Jets projected to play from behind and Metchie locked into a full-time role, there is a clear path to another double-digit fantasy point outing.

Adonai Mitchell (DK: $3.6k, FD: $5.3k) is another intriguing Jets WR dart throw. He got up to an 85% snap% last week and, while he only ended with two catches for 42 yards, he ate up a monster 70% AirYard%. The Jets clearly view him as a serious deep threat (26-yard aDOT last week), so he has some real boom/bust appeal if he continues to see multiple downfield shots moving forward.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

George Kittle, SF | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.8k | at CLE

As noted in the McCaffrey spotlight, the high winds in Cleveland should naturally shift San Francisco toward more short and intermediate passes, which plays directly into Kittle’s skill set. His aDOT sits at just 6.2 yards this season, and his role has jumped with Brock Purdy back under center. Over the last two games, Kittle has led the team with a 28.6% Target%, turning 16 targets into 12 catches, 145 yards, and two touchdowns. Cleveland is a middle-of-the-pack matchup for tight ends, but the expected volume matters more here, especially given how consolidated the 49ers’ passing tree becomes when weather limits the deep game. Another double-digit target outing is well within reach, making Kittle one of the stronger tight end options on the slate.

Oronde Gadsden II, LAC | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.9k | vs. LV

For those not paying up for McBride or Kittle, Gadsden profiles as one of the stronger mid-range TE values on the slate. Before the Chargers’ bye, the rookie had carved out a consistent role with multiple catches in six straight games and at least five targets in every one of those outings. He averaged 6.3 targets per game during that stretch and showed reliable usage even in Los Angeles’ tougher matchups. The bye comes at a good time for an offense that needs to re-center its passing game, and Gadsden has been one of the more steady pieces. Las Vegas has handled tight ends well this season, but there is room for regression -- the Raiders have allowed the 4th-fewest FPPG to TEs, but rank a middling 12th in TE DVOA. Volume should keep Gadsden in play and, with the Chargers likely leaning on their short-to-intermediate passing attack at home, he projects for another solid workload in a game where Los Angeles needs him involved.

Gunnar Helm, TEN | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4.8k | vs. JAX

Helm is quietly trending upward and comes into Week 13 off a season-high 11.1 DKFP against a Seattle defense that has been one of the league’s toughest against the pass. The rookie tight end has now produced double-digit DKFP in two of his last four games and continues to earn targets at a solid rate, seeing a look on 24% of his routes over the last three games. His overall route participation remains modest at around 42%, but Tennessee’s investment in him as a fourth-round pick suggests they want to expand his role as the season winds down, and he has played at least 63% of the snaps in back-to-back games. The matchup with Jacksonville is also a major draw. The Jaguars have struggled against tight ends all year, allowing the 2nd-most touchdowns (seven), the 4th-most receiving YPG (70.8), and the 2nd-most FPPG to the position. If you need a cheap flier at the TE spot, Helm fits the bill as an emerging weapon in a playmaker-needy Titans offense.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Seattle Seahawks | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5k | vs. MIN

Mid-Range D/ST: Houston Texans | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.3k | at IND

Value D/ST: Tennessee Titans | DK: $2.2k, FD: $3k | vs. JAX

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!