Top Sunday NFL DFS Plays Week #13 | Sorting Through Some Obvious & Not-So-Obvious Main Slate Plays!

Top DFS Plays & Props for Sunday's NFL Main Slate Action!

Author

Ryan Humphries
December 02, 2023

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

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Main Slate Rundown 📝

The final big bye week arrives in this week 13 with the Ravens, Bills, Vikings, Raiders, Bears, and Giants off the docket. After this, only the Cardinals and Commanders have their respective bye remaining in week 14. So, we’re hitting the home stretch of the regular season and the NFL schedule is about to get quite hectic! For now, we’ll be staring down another interesting 10-game Sunday NFL main slate. Bad weather, poor offenses, awful backup QBs, and low game totals litter the board but the silver lining, if you’d want to call it that, is that there does appear to be a lack of potential blowouts on this week’s main slate. Only one game (MIA @ WAS) has a spread larger than six points and, if it’s any consolation, we have a really exciting match-up in the late window between the 49ers and Eagles. Anyhow, let’s make some profit, shall we? Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

  • LAC @ NE: Some sloppy weather is expected in New England with a steady dose of rain throughout the afternoon.

  • ATL @ NYJ: Rain cleared or clearing around kick-off but field conditions may not be ideal.

  • ARI @ PIT: Scattered showers could bring some heavy rain at times to this game. Winds also look to pick up later in the game, around 20 mph with stronger gusts.

  • IND @ TEN: 10-15 mph winds.

  • MIA @ WAS: Chance for rain, mostly late-game, with 10 mph winds. Far from the worst conditions on this slate.

  • CAR @ TB: Chance for some rain throughout the afternoon.

  • SF @ PHI: Most of the rain should be gone by kick-off. 10-15 mph sustained winds with gusts around 25 mph.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.4k | @ WAS

There has been a fairly distinct correlation with Tua’s bad games coming exclusively on the road this season and he has scored fewer than 15 FP in each of his previous five away games. It’s a trend I’m willing to look past this week because the Commanders’ pass defense is just downright awful. Washington ranks dead last in pass DVOA, they allow the most FPPG to QBs, they’ve given up an NFL-high 28 passing TDs (five more than the next-closest team), and they’re allowing 11.8 yards per completion (2nd worst). Furthermore, they’ve easily been the worst scoring defense in the NFL as well -- opponents are averaging 29.2 PPG against them. They have been respectable against the run (12th in rush DVOA) which has led to a pass funnel defense. So, while there is logic in avoiding Tagovailoa due to his stark home/road splits, there is quite literally no better spot for him to buck that trend than the one he is in this week.

 

Brock Purdy, SF | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.8k | @ PHI

I could not care less about the debate of whether or not Brock Purdy is a top five, ten, etc. QB in the NFL. Whether his success is a byproduct of his own talent, the elite talent he’s surrounded by, or the inventive offensive system he operates in (or just a combination of all three), all we care about are the results. And Purdy has been PRODUCING at a high level this season. Purdy leads all NFL QBs in quarterback rating (112.3), yards per pass attempt (9.4), yards per completion (13.4), completion percentage (70.2%), and passing success rate (54.9%). The Eagles are also the epitome of a pass funnel defense (21st in pass DVOA, 4th in rush DVOA). In fact, the last four QBs they have faced (J. Allen, P. Mahomes, D. Prescott, S. Howell) have averaged a whopping 47.5 pass attempts, which has resulted in 321.8 YPG, 2.8 pass TDs/gm, and the most FPPG allowed to QBs in that span. With this information in mind, it is no surprise that Eagles’ opponents have put up an NFL-high 68.0% pass play% this season. Now, if anyone could get a rushing attack rolling against this stout Eagles defensive front, it’d be CMC and the 49ers. Also, similar to the aforementioned Tua Tagovailoa, Brock Purdy has a very noticeable downward trend in road games this season (24.9 DKFP/gm in five home games vs. 15.2 DKFP/gm in six away games) and Philadelphia is as tough of an NFL environment to play in as any. But that factor won’t be enough to shoot Purdy down as a quality DFS option in what should be one of the highest-scoring games on the slate!

Bryce Young, CAR | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.5k | @ TB

The first two QBs highlighted above are far from crazy rolls of the dice but this one certainly is. Bryce Young’s rookie campaign has gone just about as poorly as it possibly could. Young ranks 30th among 33 qualified QBs in quarterback rating and he has thrown for more than one touchdown in just a single game this season. While it seemed like a “finding a scapegoat” situation to me, the 1-10 Panthers fired head coach Frank Reich this past week, just 11 games into his Carolina tenure. Perhaps the coaching shakeup somehow helps Bryce Young to one of his better games of the season but this play will mostly be about the match-up. The Bucs are allowing the 2nd most passing YPG this season and the Panthers rank 4th in pass play percentage (62.9%). Over their last four games, the Bucs have allowed 313.3 pass YPG, 2.0 pass TDs/gm, and 24.3 FPPG to QBs. Those recent averages will be high marks for the struggling Bryce Young to come close to. But I could realistically see a multi-touchdown game for Young this week and he does provide some moderate rushing upside as well. We can’t put many eggs in this basket but QB ownership will be heavily focused on around four or five guys on this slate, so throwing a dart with a cheap Bryce Young makes some sense from a GPP leverage standpoint.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Kyren Williams, LAR | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CLE

Williams wasted no time putting up a massive fantasy score (41.4 DKFP/35.4 FDFP) in his first game back from the IR last week. And he racked up all those gaudy stats (16 car, 143 yards, 6 tgt, 6 rec, 61 rec yards, 2 TD) while playing just 61% of the snaps in a blowout. Of course, that was against a very poor Cardinals defense. The Browns D is another animal entirely and they check in at 3rd in rush DVOA on the season. That said, Williams and the Rams’ run game should see a favorable game script here as they take on the Joe Flacco-led Browns. Cleveland is allowing +43% more FPPG to RBs on the road (last nine games) and Williams has averaged +38.4% more FPPG in domed match-ups. Both of those positive trends line up this week. Williams has also finished as the RB7 or better in five of the seven weeks he has played. Some may view this as a point chase from last week but all I see is a stud RB who has been unstoppable for much of his season.

 

Bijan Robinson, ATL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.1k | @ NYJ

The Jets are a certified run-funnel defense. They’re a brutal team to pass against but they have allowed the 2nd most rushing YPG this season and 3rd most FPPG to RBs L4Weeks. Jets’ opponents average the highest rush play% in the NFL and the Falcons’ offense ranks 3rd in rush play% this season (51.5%) so you can guess what their game plan will be this week. After periods of some frustrating usage, Bijan put up arguably his best game of the season last week where he racked up 123 total yards and scored both a rushing and receiving touchdown against a solid Saints defense. Sadly, someone has to win the NFC South division and punch their ticket into the playoffs. The 5-6 Falcons currently sit atop the divisional standings heading into week 13 and find themselves in a very winnable road game as -2.5 favorites. They should feature their stud rookie quite heavily in this one if they’re taking their playoff push seriously.

 

Rachaad White, TB | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.5k | vs. CAR

Only two NFL RBs have more snaps played than Rachaad White this season. White may be far from the most talented back but sometimes, as they say, the best ability is availability. So we have a high-volume back facing the Panthers’ notoriously bad run defense (32nd in rush DVOA, 3rd most FPPG allowed to RBs this season). The Panthers have allowed 1.5 TDs/gm to RBs this season and White accounts for 100% of the Bucs’ rushing TDs. Carolina is also allowing 86% more FPPG to RBs when playing on the road. White notched his first 100-yard rushing performance of the year last week so he heads into this dream match-up with a bit of confidence and momentum.

Rhamondre Stevenson, NE | DK: $6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. LAC

As noted in the weather section, this game is expected to see some sloppy, wet conditions. To make matters worse, the Pats are rolling out Bailey Zappe as their QB, after benching Mac Jones last week, and they’re heavily lacking in healthy WR talent as well. Their best bet of winning this game as +5.5 point home underdogs will be to roll with a ground-and-pound approach. Stevenson has been a bright spot in an otherwise putrid Pats offense lately. He’s averaging 5.2 YPC over the last four games while also seeing 5.0 targets/gm and averaging 3.5 receptions/gm in that stretch. The Chargers can certainly be beaten on the ground as they check in at 26th in rush DVOA and have allowed the 8th most FPPG to RBs this season.

 

Zack Moss, IND | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.6k | @ TEN

Unless some other high-profile RB twists his ankle getting off the bus tomorrow, Moss will undoubtedly be the highest-owned player on this slate. Jonathan Taylor (thumb/out) will not suit up this week and Moss is still priced as if he’s nothing more than a backup RB. Moss missed the first week of the season but he was the featured back while Taylor was sidelined across the first four games (and Taylor played only 15% of the snaps in his first game of the season in week five). Between weeks two and five, Moss averaged 20.93 PPR points per game, which included a massive 36.5 DKFP/32.5 FDFP score against this same Titans team in week five. Outside of purely wanting to be contrarian, there is no reason to fade Zack Moss this week and he’ll certainly be a cash game lock.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyreek Hill, MIA | DK: $9.6k, FD: $10k | @ WAS

Tyreek is chasing the 2,000-yard mark and he is on pace to do so. Hill has 1,324 yards through 11 games (120.4 YPG) which puts him on a 17-game pace for 2,046 yards. If there’s ever a spot to pad the stats, it’s against this Commanders “pass defense.” There’s no real explanation needed here but if you need any convincing on why Tyreek is a strong play, either revert back to the Tua write-up above or just look at Hill’s game logs throughout the season. And, while Hill has also been affected by the poor road splits of Tagovailoa, he’s still averaging 23.4 DKFP/18.3 FDFP in six away games this season. It’s simply another no-brainer week for rostering Tyreek and, if he fails, well, that’s just the cost of doing business in the realm of NFL DFS.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $8.5k, FD: $8.5k | @ NO

Tyreek will be, far and away, the preferred spend-up WR on this main slate but ARSB makes plenty of sense if you’re looking to pivot. The Saints’ secondary has been extremely stingy against the perimeter -- they’re allowing the 2nd fewest FPPG to outside WRs this season. However, they can be beaten out of the slot, where they’re giving up the 10th most FPPG. St. Brown runs 57% of his routes out of the slot and, even when he does run on the boundaries, Jared Goff is still going to look in his direction. St. Brown now has at least 95 yards receiving or a touchdown in every game this season so, you’re getting a high-floor/high-ceiling player at low ownership with most people gravitating toward Tyreek as their luxury WR play (and there is certainly enough value on the slate to make a Tyreek + Amon-Ra lineup doable).

 

Adam Thielen, CAR | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7k | @ TB

Much of the early-season luster has faded on Adam Thielen, who was thriving over the first handful of weeks despite being stuck in a stagnant Panthers offense. Things hit rock bottom for Thielen last week when he caught just one of three targets for two yards. To state the obvious, this is far from a safe play, but if we’re expecting a good week from QB Bryce Young, then it stands to reason that his WR1 should be considered for a bounce-back as well. Thielen has run 70% of his routes out of the slot, which is where a bad Bucs pass defense has been the weakest (2nd most FPPG allowed to slot WRs). Thielen won’t be at the top of many folks’ priority lists but, as we’ve seen in multiple games this season, he brings plenty of upside to the table and will likely be under 10% rostered.

 

Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.3k | @ PHI

Revert back to the Purdy spotlight to see numerous reasons why we’re going to like the 49ers’ passing attack this week. A strong case could be made for Brandon Aiyuk (DK: $7.2k, FD: $8k) as well, but I’m giving Deebo the slight nod instead. He’s quite a bit cheaper than Aiyuk and Samuel also spends a bit more time running routes on the right perimeter, where the Eagles’ secondary has been more exploitable [than the left perimeter]. The Eagles are allowing the most FPPG to WRs both on the entire season, and in the last four weeks. So, I wouldn’t talk anyone off of utilizing Aiyuk, but Samuel is an equally strong play and he can always mix in for a few carries out of the backfield as well. You could also play both Aiyuk and Samuel in Purdy ‘double-stack’ lineups.

 

Josh Downs, IND | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.1k | @ TEN

Michael Pittman Jr. (DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.9k) has been a very reliable, volume-heavy receiver, and he should be given some DFS consideration this week. But Josh Downs also sets up as a great option and will come in at, or around, $2,000 cheaper than Pittman, depending on which site you play on. The Titans rank 32nd in WR1 DVOA this season, which is great news for Pittman, but they’re also 31st in WR2 DVOA… which is great news for Downs! I wouldn’t place too much stock in the lackluster performances from Downs across the last three games. He was banged up in weeks nine and ten, and only played 20% and 25% of the snaps in those games, respectively. And, last week, he only came away with five catches for 43 yards, but he was targeted 13 times -- the same exact number of targets that Pittman received.

AT Perry, NO | DK: $3.3k, FD: $5.7k | vs. DET

Perry’s ownership will explode should WR Chris Olave (concussion/questionable) sit out this game. Olave got in two limited practices and a full practice this week, but will still need to clear the NFL’s concussion protocol before being a ‘go’ for week 13. Even if Olave plays, Perry is an intriguing value option. WR Rashid Shaheed (thigh/out) will miss this game and WR Michael Thomas remains on IR, leaving Perry to take on the WR2 role, at the very least. Perry has played 74% and 84% of the snaps in the last two games and the Lions have allowed the most FPPG to perimeter WRs over the last four weeks (Perry: 80% PerimeterRoute%).

 

Davante Parker, NE | DK: $3.3k, FD: $5.3k | vs. LAC

I’d probably rather go with Perry if I’m searching for a cheap WR in this price range, but Parker will slide in as the de facto WR1 for the Patriots with Demario Douglas (concussion/out) sidelined and Kendrick Bourne (knee/IR), of course, still out for the remainder of the season. The Chargers have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to WRs this season and rank 27th in pass DVOA. But poor weather, Bailey Zappe being the Pats’ starting QB, and Parker not exactly being a great WR will be some obvious negatives concerning this play. That said, if Parker goes out and puts up something like a 6/65/1 receiving line, I don’t believe anyone would be all too surprised.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Taysom Hill, NO | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.5k | vs. DET

The tight end pool feels extra gross this week so it may be a time when we get a little weird with the Tayson Hill play. As most are aware, Hill is far from a traditional tight end. While we never know exactly how his touches will be distributed on a game-to-game basis, he has potential to touch the ball as a receiver, rusher, and passer. And the Saints have plenty of redzone/goal line packages designed specifically for him, so the touchdown equity is solid. Much like the aforementioned AT Perry, Taysom Hill will show up on the radar for more people if WR Chris Olave (concussion/questionable) sits out but, as is, there are a few additional targets to be had with the Saints missing their WR2 and WR3 (M. Thomas & R. Shaheed). I also don’t mind rolling with the more traditional Saints tight end, Juwan Johnson (DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.9k), who saw seven targets and ran a season-high in routes last week.

 

David Njoku, CLE | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.6k | @ LAR

It’s anyone’s guess as to what this Browns’ offense will look like with Joe Flacco at the helm, who signed with the team just 12 days ago. But Njoku has been a surprisingly consistent performer despite dealing with the ongoing Cleveland QB carousel. Njoku has played nearly 90% of the snaps in recent weeks and he has either caught 6+ passes or a touchdown in each of the previous five games. And, if anything, Flacco could be an upgrade over QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson (concussion/out), who has started the previous two games for the Browns.

Stephen Sullivan, CAR | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.4k | @ TB

As we continue “disgusting tight end week,” we’ll spotlight the most stomach-churning, BUT CHEAPEST, option thus far. The Panthers look to be thin at TE for this game with Hayden Hurst (concussion/out) already ruled out and Tommy Tremble (hip/doubtful) not expected to play. So Stephen Sullivan and Ian Thomas (DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.3k) will see most of the snaps at TE for Carolina in this game. As you can imagine for guys who have been the third and fourth tight ends on the depth chart for most of the season, neither player has been overly involved in this offense. But I will side with Sullivan as he has an 18.9% target per route run rate this season, versus a 10.9% TPRR for Thomas. That said, Thomas has played ahead of Sullivan this season so he could easily end up as the “better” play. Both will be low-confidence options but, hey, they’re dirt cheap, especially on DraftKings, and it won’t take much for either guy to hit value. Oh, and, for what it’s worth, over their last four games the Bucs have allowed 6.5 receptions/gm, 80.3 YPG, 0.5 TDs/gm, and the 3rd most FPPG to the tight end position.

 

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Miami Dolphins | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5k | @ WAS

Mid-Range D/ST: Atlanta Falcons | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.7k | @ NYJ

DraftKings Value D/ST: New England Patriots | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. LAC

Contrarian D/ST: Pittsburgh Steelers | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.9k | vs. ARI

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Deebo Samuel

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Sam Howell, Curtis Samuel, Tyreek Hill

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Tua Tagovailo, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Bijan Robinson + Falcons D/ST

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, Devin Singletary

Value Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Gardner Minshew II, Josh Downs, Zack Moss

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp RB

Bryce Young, Adam Thielen, Rachaad White

Touchdown Call 🏈

Rachaad White, TB | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.5k | vs. CAR

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Rachaad White MORE than 15.5 Fantasy Score

Tyreek Hill MORE than 20.5 Fantasy Score

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!