Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

Top DFS Offers 12/10/23 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

• Sleeper DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Underdog DFS - Deposit Match up to $500 🔥

• Thrive DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Chalkboard DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Parlay Play - Free $5 Entry no Deposit Required 🆕

^{Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.}

LineStar DFS Picks & Prop Shows

w/ Tyler Wiemann & Shannon Sommerville.

Stay up-to-date with all of the latest DFS and prop betting content by subscribing to the LineStar YouTube channel!

Main Slate Rundown 📝

Week 14 is flying at us with an 11-game Sunday main slate on tap! Some intriguing match-ups are on the board, particularly in the 4 o’clock ET window. It’s not the sexiest overall slate of the season but it should be a fun NFL Sunday nonetheless. We’ll see if we can crack the code and turn some nice profit! Best of luck!

Note: Your boy is going through it today with an illness. Unlike those NBA divas, I am committed to fulfilling my duties by getting this main slate article out there but I will be condensing the player spotlights quite a bit.

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• LAR @ BAL: Rainy and breezy throughout the afternoon in Baltimore. It looks like they’ll avoid the worst of the weather, but it’s going to be wet with winds around 10-15 mph and slightly stronger gusts.

• DET @ CHI: Winds around 15 mph and temps in the low-30s. But, in the grand scheme of things, the weather should have a minimal impact here.

• IND @ CIN: 10 mph winds with 20 mph gusts.

• HOU @ NYJ: Chance for rain, particularly later on in the second half.

• JAX @ CLE: Scattered showers in the area so there’s a moderate chance for some wet weather at times. 10-15 mph winds.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | @ KC

This is the most obvious game stack on the day due to its slate-leading 49 over/under and close spread (KC -1). However, I believe Josh Allen’s ownership will stay in check, for the most part -- perhaps around 12-15%. The Bills are fresh off their bye week and Allen has landed in the perfect lineup in three of his last four games. The Chiefs boast an improved pass defense this season (5th in pass DVOA) but Allen could have a big day on the ground (KC: 28th in rush DVOA). Allen is averaging 35.7 FPPG against the Chiefs over the last two seasons.

Brock Purdy, SF | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.1k | vs. SEA

We’re probably going to see some high-ish ownership on Purdy, especially on DraftKings, but his top weapons are healthy and as dangerous as ever. Purdy has also been outstanding at home this season where he’s averaging 24.9 FPPG (vs. 17.7 FPPG away) and completing 76.1% of his passes. The Seahawks check in at 26th in pass DVOA and have allowed +30% more FPPG to QBs when playing on the road (last nine games). I wouldn’t place too much weight on the down game for Purdy against Seattle two weeks ago. He should provide a high floor and solid ceiling to DFS lineups this week. There are also some very clear stack options to go with Purdy and the 49ers lead the slate with a 29.8 implied team total.

Jake Browning, CIN | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.5k | vs. IND

A bit of a points chase? Maybe somewhat. But Browning is underpriced by a few hundred bucks on both sites so we can view him as a viable cheap QB play for this slate. In his two starts, he’s completing 81% of his passes at 9.2 yards per attempt. He’s had another week to prep as the starter, all of his key pass-catching weapons are healthy, and he’s coming off of a confidence-boosting primetime win. The Colts are also allowing +42% more FPPG to QBs when on the road (last nine games).

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.5k | vs. SEA

It’s another strong week to roll with the CMC spend-up. McCaffrey provides the best floor at the position and has averaged +16.6% more FPPG at home this season. The Seahawks are also getting torched by opposing RBs lately, allowing the 2nd most FPPG to the position over their last four games.

Kyren Williams, LAR | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.8k | @ BAL

Pretty brutal match-up (BAL: 4th in rush DVOA) but that’s going to keep Williams’ ownership in check, likely in the single digits. He racked up 200+ yards and two touchdowns in his first game off the IR in week 12, then followed that up with a 112 scrimmage yards and a score on 26 opportunities and a 94% snap% in week 13, despite facing a tough Browns defense. Williams’ stranglehold on the RB1 duties with elite volume will make him an intriguing GPP play this week. Poor weather in Baltimore could also put an added emphasis on the ground games for both teams.

David Montgomery, DET | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.6k | @ CHI

A Monty touchdown seems like a near guarantee every week and he’ll have the “facing former team” narrative going for him again, this time in front of the Bears’ fans. Montgomery makes more sense for GPPs this week but he will be < 10% owned and has a solid chance at 100+ yards plus a touchdown or two even while sharing backfield work with Jahmyr Gibbs.

Joe Mixon, CIN | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.2k | vs. IND

Only the Panthers have allowed more touchdowns to RBs than the Colts this season and only three teams (DEN, CAR, ARI) have allowed more FPPG to the position. Mixon also saw seven targets for interim QB Jake Browning last week and he’s likely going to see at least a handful of targets once again this week. Mixon also has zero competition for redzone touches and he leads the entire slate, by a wide margin, with an 86.1% share of his team’s redzone rushes. Mixon will be a very solid option out of the mid-range.

Zack Moss, IND | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.8k | @ CIN

Moss was the chalkiest player from last week’s slate and didn’t cash in with a big game. He did see 22 opportunities and played a 94% snap% but he just couldn’t crack the endzone despite having plenty of opportunities to do so. He’ll lead the Colts backfield again with Jonathan Taylor (thumb/out) sidelined and Moss receives a quality match-up versus the Bengals, who rank 29th in rush DVOA. Moss’ DFS prices have seen a sizable increase since last week but, for a bellcow RB1, he’s still underpriced.

Jerick McKinnon, KC | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.3k | vs. BUF

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.5k | vs. BUF

Isiah Pacheco (shoulder/out) will miss this week’s action so there will be opportunities up for grabs out of the Chiefs backfield. CEH is probably the “safer” option and should handle the most touches but don’t count McKinnon out either. It was about this point in the season last year when he went on a massive run and the Bills have allowed the 4th most receptions to RBs this season, which is where McKinnon does much of his damage.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Jefferson, MIN | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9k | @ LV

It won’t be without some risk but one of the best WRs in the game makes his return this week and you can get him at single-digit ownership on this slate. Jefferson was as elite as ever to start the season before his week five hamstring injury and he’ll return to action with a different QB throwing him the ball. But we can expect QB Joshua Dobbs to pepper Jefferson with targets all afternoon against a middling Raiders secondary.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.9k | vs. IND

Sometimes when a team’s starting QB goes down, the backup comes in and just feeds their alpha WR1. That seemed to be the case for Chase last week, who saw 12 targets (32.4% target%) from QB Jake Browning, which led to 11 catches for 149 yards and a TD. Chase also dominated in air yards, with a 45.5% air yard% in week 13. He draws the most favorable cornerback match-up (among CIN WRs) as he should run the majority of his routes against Jaylon Jones on the left perimeter.

Nico Collins, HOU | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.8k | @ NYJ

Collins, and any Texans stack in general, will be super low-owned as folks will avoid this Jets match-up like the plague. But with Tank Dell out for the season, Noah Brown a little iffy (but expected to play), and tight end Dalton Schultz sidelined for another week, Collins could dominate the target share from CJ Stroud. It’s a risky play but also the kind of play that could help you bink a tournament.

Michael Pittman Jr., IND | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8k | @ CIN

Since Gardner Minshew II took over at QB for the Colts in week six, Pittman has commanded an elite 33.3% target% while averaging 11.6 targets/gm. The floor is virtually always solid and we’ve seen Pittman put up a couple of ceiling-type performances in the last two weeks. No match-up concerns against a Bengals defense that has allowed the 7th most FPPG to WRs L4Games.

Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.5k | vs. SEA

What a monster game out of Deebo last week. KING YAC! It’s going to be a tough act to follow but Deebo tends to destroy Seattle. He has scored at least 22.4 DKFP against the Seahawks in five of his last six games against them. The Seahawks also allow +22% more FPPG to WRs on the road (last nine games).

Rashee Rice, KC | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.3k | vs. BUF

Rice logged a season-high 69% snap% last week and has now played at least 67% of the snaps in three of the last four games. He’s taken over as the Chiefs' WR1 and, while he’s no Tyreek Hill, Patrick Mahomes seems to trust him, and rightfully so -- Rice has corraled 80% of his targets this season. He’s a quality and affordable option to slide into lineups in this potential shootout.

Jonathan Mingo, CAR | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.5k | @ NO

We’ve got to find some cheap plays somewhere if we’re rolling with some studs on this slate and Mingo makes sense, particularly on DraftKings at a sub-$4k salary. Mingo has played at least a 92% snap% in seven consecutive games so he’s rarely coming off of the field. He saw a season-high 10 targets last week and is gradually building a connection with rookie QB Bryce Young. Tough match-up (NO: fewest FPPG allowed to WRs L4Games) but we don’t need much out of Mingo to hit on value.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8k | vs. BUF

He’s always a candidate to break a slate and, even though this game will be a popular one to stack, I doubt many people will choose to spend up on Kelce. He’s averaging +44.4% more FPPG at home this season and the Bills have not exactly been great at containing tight ends lately.

Cade Otton, TB | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.9k | @ ATL

Tight ends against the Falcons have averaged 7.5 receptions for 94.8 YPG in their last four games. Otton plays nearly every single snap (97% snap%) and he’ll be in a strong spot for a ceiling performance.

Hunter Long, LAR | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.3k | @ BAL

Long is nothing more than a GPP punt play but he should be the primary pass-catching tight end for the Rams this week with Tyler Higbee (neck) doubtful to play.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: San Francisco 49ers | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5k | vs. SEA

Mid-Range D/ST: Baltimore Ravens | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.5k | vs. LAR

DraftKings Value D/ST: New York Jets | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. HOU

Contrarian D/ST: Kansas City Chiefs | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4k | vs. BUF

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Rashee Rice

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Justin Fields, DJ Moore, Amon-Ra St. Brown

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Joshua Dobbs, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Christian McCaffrey + 49ers D/ST

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey

Value Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Jake Browning, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon (Chase/Mixon aren’t cheap, but both are a bit underpriced)

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp WR

CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, Garrett Wilson

Touchdown Call 🏈

David Montgomery, DET | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.6k | @ CHI

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

No PrizePicks plays from me but Shannon and Tyler have some great prop picks in the videos attached at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!