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Main Slate Rundown 📝

The Week 14 main slate gives us 11 games, plenty of balanced matchups with nine single-score spreads, and a few weather wrinkles that could make things interesting. We’ve got several totals sitting in the low-40s -- plus a potential slog between TEN–CLE (33.5 O/U) -- but also a few legitimate shootout spots like CIN–BUF (53.5 O/U), LAR–ARI (47.5 O/U), and IND–JAX (46.5 O/U). There’s even the possibility of a couple of snow games on Sunday, which is always fun. It should be another great afternoon of football as we hit the home stretch of the regular season. Let’s dive in. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report 🌦️

• NO at TB (1:00 ET, 41.5 O/U): A chance for rain, but the heavier stuff should stay north of Tampa.

• IND at JAX (1:00 ET, 46.5 O/U): This one has a better shot at seeing more persistent or heavier rain. Could range from light, on-and-off stuff to a legitimately wet game.

• TEN at CLE (1:00 ET, 33.5 O/U): Around-freezing temps with ~10 mph winds and snow showers in the area. The combo of cold + light breeze + snow is a slight offensive downgrade (and it’s not like these two offenses are great to begin with).

• CIN at BUF (1:00 ET, 53.5 O/U): A pretty solid chance for snow with temps near 30 degrees and light winds. Visibility could fluctuate, but wind isn’t expected to be a major factor. Still mildly impactful.

• CHI at GB (4:25 ET, 44.5 O/U): Frigid conditions with temps in the teens throughout. Extreme cold isn’t as damaging as wind, but it does matter -- especially at this level -- and could slightly suppress efficiency in the passing and kicking games.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.1k | at BUF

Burrow shook off months of rust last week and still turned in 19.2 DKFP on 46 attempts, which is exactly the kind of volume we want to buy into. The accuracy wasn’t all the way back (52.2% comp%, 6.5 AY/A), but that should improve with another week of reps and the return of Tee Higgins, who missed last week’s action with a concussion. Cincinnati let Joe Flacco rip 40-plus attempts every game, so this isn’t a fluky pass-heavy script. And we’ve already seen the ceiling once Burrow gets rolling, averaging 25.6 FPPG from Week 9 onward last year. With a slate-high 53.5 total in a must-win spot, Burrow sets up as one of the best ceiling bets on the board and has clear, straightforward stack pieces in Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

Jacoby Brissett, ARI | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.2k | vs. LAR

Brissett has become one of the most reliable fantasy-scoring quarterbacks in the NFL, delivering at least 20 DKFP in seven straight starts. Arizona has turned into a full-blown pass-first offense with him under center, averaging 43 attempts per game and ranking 1st in PassPlay% since Brissett took over. As sizable home underdogs (ARI +9.5), the volume should once again be there. The matchup is tough on paper (LAR ranks 3rd in pass DVOA), but Brissett has consistently overcome difficult spots and finished as a top-10 QB in five of his seven starts -- the Rams have also allowed +15% more FPPG to QBs when playing on the road. These soft DFS price points really do not reflect the sort of stability Brissett has provided, and his combination of consistent pass volume and bankable fantasy output makes him one of the strongest QB options on the board.

Tyrod Taylor, NYG | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.7k | vs. MIA

Taylor is one of the slate’s cheapest starters, but he’s playing well enough to strongly consider for more aggressive tournament lineup builds. He dropped 21.3 DKFP on Atlanta last week and now gets another friendly setup against Miami’s defense, which ranks 30th in pass DVOA and has allowed the 6th-most adjusted FPPG to QBs. A major draw is the rushing. Taylor has long brought a stable rushing floor when given starting opportunities, and, even in his age-36 season, last week’s 8-44-1 line was a reminder of how mobile he still is. And, it’s worth noting that the Dolphins have allowed the most rushing YPG to QBs this season. Mobile QBs aren’t as prevalent at the NFL level, but they’re fantasy cheat codes, and at these salaries, you don’t need much for him to pay off. Taylor could easily end up as the best point-per-dollar QB on this slate.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

De’Von Achane, MIA | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.2k | at NYJ

Achane continues to offer one of the most secure workloads in fantasy, boasting a 22% Target% (2nd among RBs) and handling 67% of Miami’s rush attempts this season. The efficiency remains elite, and he already gashed this Jets defense once for 100+ yards and a score back in week four. New York has struggled mightily against RBs, ranking 24th in RB DVOA while allowing the 7th-most adjusted FPPG to the position, so the matchup aligns well with his usage profile. Achane carries one of the highest ceilings on the slate and stays firmly in the pay-up conversation on both DK and FD.

James Cook, BUF | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.3k | vs. CIN

Bills-Bengals is the premier fantasy spot on the slate with a 53.5-point total, and Cook sets up extremely well in this matchup. Cincinnati has been one of the softest defenses in football, ranking 31st in both pass and rush DVOA, dead last in RB DVOA, and they’re allowing the most adjusted FPPG to RBs by a wide margin. Cook has also taken on a larger role lately, handling 76% of Buffalo’s carries over the past five games while adding a steadier receiving floor with 3+ catches in four straight. He sits sixth among RBs in PPR scoring this season and now draws his best matchup in weeks with Buffalo holding a slate-leading 29.8 implied points. Cook also makes for an excellent “gamestack + bring-back” play if you’re rolling with Burrow at QB.

Bucky Irving, TB | DK: $7k, FD: $8k | vs. NO

Tampa said Irving would be “limited” last week, but his usage told a different story. Despite not officially starting, he handled 19 touches, 73% of the RB work, and a season-high 81% of the RB carries -- good for 16.1 DKFP even with a modest 52% snap rate and minimal receiving involvement. There’s still clear room for growth as he fully ramps up, and Week 14 sets up well with the Bucs favored by 8.5 at home, a script that should keep the backfield heavily involved. The Saints have also allowed +48% more FPPG to RBs on the road, a meaningful boost for Tampa’s ground game. If Irving holds anything close to last week’s workload, he shapes up as one of the best mid-range RB options on the slate.

Chase Brown, CIN | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.3k | at BUF

Brown brings legit upside in the week’s top shootout environment and should stay under 10% ownership. He’s hit 18+ DKFP in five straight and immediately saw a healthy 7 targets (15.9% Target%) in Burrow’s first game back. Perine mixing in at the goal line last week is mildly concerning, but most of his touches came in second-half blowout run versus Baltimore. Buffalo is still a strong matchup for RBs -- they’re 30th in rush DVOA and have allowed the 2nd-highest explosive rush rate -- and Brown’s pass-game role keeps him very live in any Bengals-leaning script. Brown should also experience some positive touchdown regression sooner rather than later. He’s averaging an outstanding 21.6 touches/gm over the last four games, but has zero touchdowns in that span. He’ll represent some excellent tournament leverage off the much more popular James Cook.

Quinshon Judkins, CLE | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.9k | vs. TEN

Judkins continues to own one of the league’s most secure early-down roles, handling 79% of Cleveland’s RB carries since Week 3, and Week 14 sets up perfectly for that kind of workload. Tennessee has struggled badly against the run -- 27th in rush DVOA and allowing 31.4 PPR FPPG to RBs on the road -- and the freezing temps/snow potential in Cleveland only tilt this matchup further toward the ground game. Judkins has thrived in positive scripts, dropping 26.4 DKFP the only other time the Browns (-4.5) were home favorites this season, and he could see even more work if Dylan Sampson (calf/questionable) sits. Judkins posted a 13% Target% last week with Sampson banged up, and taking over third-down snaps would give him meaningful receiving upside to pair with his already elite carry share. Strong mid-range RB play in a game environment built for RB volume.

R.J. Harvey, DEN | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.5k | at LV

Harvey has taken over as Denver’s lead back with JK Dobbins out, logging 61%+ of the carries in two straight and reclaiming all of the goal-line work last week. The passing-down split with Tyler Badie is still a hindrance to his overall upside, but Harvey’s touch volume is stable enough -- and he bailed out an inefficient rushing day (2.7 YPC) last week with 2 TDs and a few catches. This matchup sets up well for another spike outcome. The Raiders have allowed the 3rd-most rushing TDs to RBs and have been pushed around at the point of attack for most of the year. The implied game script should also work in Harvey’s favor as the Broncos step in as heavy 7.5-point road favorites. With a clear pathway to 15-20 touches, a soft matchup where he should improve the efficiency, positive game script, strong TD equity, and friendly salaries, Harvey profiles as one of the stronger salary-saving RBs on the slate.

Aaron Jones, MIN | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6k | vs. WAS

Jones left last week’s contest early with a shoulder injury but has been cleared for Week 14, and this matchup is about as good as it gets. Washington ranks 29th in RB DVOA, and, over their last four games, they’ve allowed THE most FPPG to RBs. The Vikings O-Line has also been rock-solid, ranking 8th in Adjusted Line Yards (4.61). This gives Minnesota’s struggling offense a straightforward blueprint: lean on the ground game. Jones will still share work with Jordan Mason, but before last week’s exit, he had taken control of the backfield, playing 70% of snaps and handling 63% of carries from Weeks 10-12 while also maintaining a 15.7% target share. That’s a meaningful role at these low-end price points in a premium matchup.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA | DK: $9k, FD: $9.8k | at ATL

Last week’s dud was far more about Vikings QB Max Brosmer than anything JSN did wrong. QB Sam Darnold only attempted 23 passes for 128 yards in a game that the Seahawks fully controlled start to finish. Before last week, JSN had cleared 20 DKFP in 10 of 11 games and was the safest WR play in DFS. The usage remains elite: a 29.6% Target% (5th in NFL), 39.2% AirYard% (6th in NFL), and an absurd 12.0 yards per target, making him both volume-driven and hyper-efficient. Atlanta is a neutral matchup, but Seattle should need to throw more here than in last week’s shutout. The Falcons' pass defense, which started strong this season, has slipped significantly in recent weeks -- they’ve allowed the 3rd-most FPPG over their L4Games. Atlanta has also allowed +50% more FPPG to WRs when playing at home. Overall, JSN is probably the most obvious bounce-back candidate on the slate.

Puka Nacua, LAR | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.3k | at ARI

The Rams carry one of the slate’s best scoring outlooks (28.5 implied points), and Nacua remains the focal point of their passing game despite a quieter recent stretch. His target volume is still elite -- a 27.4% Target% on the season -- and that kind of role usually pays off sooner rather than later. Davante Adams has been a redzone monster, scoring an insane 11 TDs over his last six games, but, inevitably, some of those TDs are going to start going Puka’s way. Arizona is a perfectly attackable matchup, and they tend to run plenty of high-shell coverages, which keeps the opposing offense focusing on short-to-intermediate passes, which is where Nacua thrives (8.8-yard aDOT). His underlying usage hasn’t changed, making him a strong positive-regression candidate this Sunday.

Michael Wilson, ARI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.7k | vs. LAR

As noted in the Jacoby Brissett spotlight, Arizona has become one of the most pass-heavy teams in football with Brissett at QB, averaging 43 pass attempts per game during his seven starts. That kind of volume creates immediate opportunity for whoever steps into the Cardinals’ top roles -- and with Marvin Harrison Jr. (heel/out) sidelined again, Michael Wilson is right back into the high-usage chair. In the two previous games Harrison missed (Weeks 11 & 12), Wilson handled a dominant 32.4% Target% and a wild 57% AirYard% with 15+ targets in both games, topping 100 yards each time and posting 19.8 and 29.0 DKFP without even scoring. Arizona will also be without Greg Dortch, who previously claimed a 14.7% Target% in this setup, so even more work should funnel Wilson’s direction. With the Cardinals entering as 8.5-point underdogs, another double-digit target game feels extremely likely, and these salaries still haven’t caught up to his ceiling.

Christian Watson, GB | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.2k | vs. CHI

Green Bay’s WR room is finally getting healthier with Jayden Reed activated off the IR, but both Reed and rookie Matthew Golden remain questionable for this week’s action. In the meantime, Watson has quietly pulled ahead of the pack. Over the last four games, Watson leads the team with an 83.7% RouteParticipation% and has surged to a 25.5% Target% and 47.4% AirYard%. The spike in opportunity has translated immediately into production, with three touchdowns across his last three outings and an 80-yard, 10-target day on Thanksgiving. If he has truly emerged as Jordan Love’s clear WR1, these mid-tier salaries won’t hold for long. Chicago (23rd in pass DVOA) is a beatable matchup, and Green Bay’s 25.8 implied points (3rd-highest on the slate) give Watson another strong setup to deliver.

Adonai Mitchell, NYJ | DK: $4.6k, FD: $6k | vs. MIA

Mitchell looks like a real breakout candidate now that he’s getting full-time usage in New York. Over the last two weeks with Tyrod Taylor at QB, he’s operated as a true WR1, logging a 98% RouteParticipation% last week along with a massive 38.7% Target% and 58.1% AirYard%. The volume finally turned into production against Atlanta, where he erupted for an 8-102-1 line and 27.2 DKFP. As with most any piece of the New York Jets offense, he’s going to have some major volatility. But, as long as he keeps commanding this level of involvement, his current DFS salaries are too low.

Luther Burden, CHI | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5.1k | vs. GB

In terms of increased snap rates and more consistent target volume, Burden was already trending up over the last month. Now, Rome Odunze’s (foot/out) absence creates an even clearer runway for snaps and targets. Burden’s Target% sits at a modest 8.9% on the year, but that has climbed to a much more involved 17.8% Target% over the last three games. With Odunze vacating a team-high 23.8% Target% and 38.1% AirYard%, Burden has a real shot at full-time usage for the first time this season. The matchup isn’t ideal vs. Green Bay, but the projected volume spike outweighs the concern, making Burden a strong value WR punt this week.

Devaughn Vele, NO | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5.5k | at TB

This slate isn’t lacking WR dart throws, and Devaughn Vele is another cheap option to consider. Since the Saints traded Rashid Shaheed to the Seahawks, Vele has logged snap rates of 87%, 89%, and 88%. He’s been out there for nearly every single dropback, and he finally had a breakout game last week, catching all eight of his targets for 93 yards and a touchdown. The snaps and volume will be even more locked in if star WR Chris Olave (back/questionable) is forced to sit, but Vele looks like a strong value option regardless of Olave’s status. The Saints are 8.5-point underdogs, so the script should lean pass-heavy, and the Bucs’ secondary has given up the 4th-most FPPG to WRs over the last month, so there are no major matchup red flags.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Trey McBride, ARI | DK: $8k, FD: $8.6k | vs. LAR

McBride continues to pump out fantasy numbers at a higher rate than any other tight end in football. He’s averaging 18.7 PPR FPPG on the season and has leveled up even further with Jacoby Brissett, posting 23.1 PPR FPPG across the QB’s seven starts. The uptick with Brissett has been a direct result of the touchdowns finally arriving. After struggling to find the endzone with Kyler Murray, McBride has found the end zone seven times in his last seven games. He has finished as a top-six TE in every Brissett start and TE2 or better in six of seven. The Rams defense has also been forcing plenty of volume toward tight ends, allowing 7.3 receptions/gm to the position over their last four. The salaries are steep, but no tight end offers McBride’s combination of floor, volume, and week-winning upside.

Tyler Warren, IND | DK: $5k, FD: $6.3k | at JAX

In his rookie season, Warren has ranked seventh at the position in PPR FPPG and typically provides a reliable weekly floor. While he hasn’t flashed a massive ceiling yet, his role has remained secure, and he continues to earn consistent targets in a Colts offense that leans heavily on its tight ends in the red zone. Week 14 brings a major matchup upgrade. After facing Houston’s elite TE defense last week, he now draws Jacksonville, a unit allowing the second-most FPPG to the position. The only real concern is QB Daniel Jones' health; Jones is quite literally playing through a fractured leg (fibula), though he held up reasonably well against a top-tier defense last week. With this game carrying one of the higher totals on the slate, along with a close 1.5-point spread, Warren profiles as a strong mid-range TE option who can benefit from both matchup and game environment.

Gunnar Helm, TEN | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.8k | at CLE

There isn’t much to love, or even vaguely like, about this Titans offense, especially heading into Cleveland to face an aggressive Browns defense, but rookie TE Gunnar Helm is at least giving us something actionable. He has posted back-to-back 6-catch, 7-target outings (no 6–7 memes please) and has quickly become a reliable safety valve for Cam Ward. Helm scored his first NFL TD in Week 8, and with his volume stabilizing, another red-zone conversion isn’t out of the question even in a game carrying a miserable 33.5 total. The expected cold, breezy, possibly snowy conditions could also tilt Tennessee toward more short/intermediate throws, which fits Helm’s role (6.1-yard aDOT). Cleveland has been more middle-of-the-pack versus TEs in recent weeks, so while this is far from a smash spot, it’s also not the kind of matchup that removes him from value consideration.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Cleveland Browns | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.9k | vs. TEN

Mid-Range D/ST: Green Bay Packers | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. CHI

DraftKings Value D/ST: Washington Commanders | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4.4k | at MIN

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!