Top Sunday NFL DFS Plays Week #14 | Sunday Sleepers and Stars to Watch!

Top DFS Plays & Props for Sunday's NFL Main Slate Action!

Author

Ryan Humphries
December 07, 2024

Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

Top Pick’Em Offers 12/8/24 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.

.

LineStar DFS Picks & Prop Shows

w/ Tyler Wiemann & Shannon Sommerville.

Stay up-to-date with all of the latest DFS and prop betting content by subscribing to the LineStar YouTube channel!

Main Slate Rundown 📝

The final week of byes (BAL, DEN, HOU, IND, NE, WAS) is here so things are going to be pretty crazy from here on out! Week 14 is also the final week of the “regular season” of most season-long leagues and round one of best ball leagues, so best of luck to all of you who have championship hopes and/or eyes on some huge best ball payouts! Sunday will bring us a 10-game DraftKings main slate and an 11-game FanDuel main slate, with the inclusion of the SNF game. The craziest weeks of the season always seem to roll around this time of year so let’s lock in! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

  • NYJ @ MIA (1:00 ET, 45.0 O/U): 10-15 mph winds. Pleasant Florida December temps in the 70s.

  • JAX @ TEN (1:00 ET, 40.0 O/U): Chance for some light rain. Not a major concern.

  • CLE @ PIT (1:00 ET, 43.5 O/U): 10-15 mph winds with some 20+ mph gusts.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. CAR

If there is one QB that’s going to erupt for 35+ FP on this slate, it’s likely going to be Hurts. His match-up is a cakewalk against the Panthers who check in at 29th in pass DVOA, 31st in rush DVOA (which matters for a mobile QB like Hurts), and have allowed the 5th most adjusted FP to QBs this season. The Panthers have allowed 24.9 FPPG to QBs when they’re on the road and nine of Hurts’ 12 rushing TDs have come at home this season.

 

Sam Darnold, MIN | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.6k | vs. ATL

Darnold has been an excellent floor player throughout the season, and he should make for an excellent mid-range option this week. Darnold ranks 7th or better among NFL QBs in yards per attempt, yards per completion, passer rating, and TD%. And, while he is not a super mobile QB, he can often put up around 20 yards on the ground which is always a nice plus. The Falcons have been a bit of a pass funnel this season so it has been easier to pass on them than run. They’ve allowed the 6th most adjusted FPPG to QBs and opponents are completing an NFL-high 71.6% of their passes against Atlanta. The Falcons also allow +30% more FPPG to QBs when playing on the road.

 

Will Levis, TEN | DK: $5k, FD: $6.6k | vs. JAX

Consistency hasn’t defined Will Levis’ career, but this matchup against the Jaguars -- one we’ve targeted all season -- makes him an appealing value QB option. Since returning from injury four games ago, he’s posted seven touchdowns to two interceptions alongside 17.5 FPPG. Jacksonville’s defense ranks last in DVOA against the pass and they have allowed a whopping 29.6 FPPG to QBs when on the road this season. Levis’ cannon of an arm has always been his best attribute and, with the second-highest aDOT in the league over the past four weeks, Levis offers significant upside (relative to his DFS price points) in this spot.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Saquon Barkley, PHI | DK: $9k, FD: $10k | vs. CAR

We probably don’t need to spend much time here. If the aforementioned Jalen Hurts doesn’t go off this Sunday (and eat up multiple rushing TDs), Barkley should put up another monster performance. The Panthers possess the worst run defense in the NFL and the Eagles (-13.5) have +32% more rushes when favored. And, while I have no faith that Carolina will win this game, given how the Panthers offense has played the last few weeks, they may be able to make this a somewhat competitive game that could keep the Eagles’ starters in action well into the fourth quarter.

 

Kyren Williams, LAR | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.4k | vs. BUF

There are pass funnels and there are run funnels. Buffalo may have the most clear-cut run funnel defense in the NFL -- they allow the 3rd fewest adjusted FPPG to QBs & WRs but the 3rd MOST to RBs. The Bills have given up the second-highest yards per carry and lead the league in 10-plus-yard runs allowed. While Kyren Williams has a low explosive run rate along with just 1. yards after contact per attempt, this matchup minimizes those weaknesses. Williams also has the most red zone touches of any RB this season, so his touchdown equity remains elite.

 

Bucky Irving, TB | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.7k | vs. LV

Bucky Irving has solidified his role as the RB1 in the Bucs’ backfield, logging 46 touches and 337 scrimmage yards over the past two games compared to Rachaad White's 25 touches and 125 yards. The snaps between Irving and White have still been close to 50/50 in these last two games, but Irving has simply passed both the eye test and the tangible results test. Irving also ranks 2nd among all NFL RBs with 2.9 yards after contact per attempt. While recent matchups against the Panthers and Giants have been very favorable, the Raiders' 28th rank in DVOA-adjusted points against RBs suggests Irving remains in a strong position.

 

Isaac Guerendo, SF | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.2k | vs. CHI

It just hasn’t been the 49ers’ year as injuries to key players have plagued this team all season. With CMC and Jordan Mason now on IR, Isaac Guerendo takes over the backfield, bringing a 26.2% avoided tackle rate, 5.9 YPC, and 11.9% explosive run rate on 42 attempts. While the sample size is small, his efficiency running the ball would rank among the league's best, and the Bears' defense is vulnerable, allowing the fifth-highest explosive run rate and ranking 30th in rush DVOA. Despite the high ownership he’ll receive, Guerendo profiles as a strong play in this matchup.

 

Braelon Allen, NYJ | DK: $5k, FD: $5.2k | at MIA

Breece Hall (knee/out) has been ruled out this week and there is a very real possibility that the 3-9 Jets will opt to just shut him down the rest of the way in what is a lost season. That will open up the door for Braelon Allen to take on a featured role. Allen’s 3.6 YPC on 67 totes this season is nothing remarkable, but at 6’1”, 235 lbs, he is built to handle a heavy workload. Like many RBs, handling more consistent touches could help him find a rhythm in this game and it’s a fairly neutral match-up versus a middling Dolphins’ run defense.

 

Zach Charbonnet, SEA | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.3k | at ARI

There is no shortage of “next man up” RBs to choose from this week. With Kenneth Walker III officially ruled out with ankle/calf injuries, Charbonnet should regain a featured role. Walker missed a couple of games early in the season (weeks 2 & 3). In those games, Charbonnet logged snap rates of 96% and 84% while handling 40 total touches (32 rushes/8 receptions) for 176 total yards and three TDs. Charbonnet is easily the most talented RB on the roster behind Walker and the Seahawks are gunning for the NFC West division, so expect a strong workload here against a decent but beatable Cardinals run defense.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Jefferson, MIN | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.2k | vs. ATL

We’ve been waiting on the JJ explosion game all season… perhaps it will happen this week? Jefferson has been rather quiet lately but he’s still second in the NFL in receiving yards and 8th in yards per route run. As mentioned, the Falcons allow the highest completion percentage in the league and they have allowed the most FPPG to WRs L4Games. Jefferson also runs nearly a third of his routes out of the slot which is where Ladd McConkey did a ton of damage against Atlanta last week.

 

Mike Evans, TB | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.4k | vs. LV

I’m fairly confident we’ll see Evans fly a bit under the radar again as he projects for < 10% ownership on both DK and FD. He missed a few games with a hamstring injury and was fairly quiet in his first game back while playing just 60% of the snaps. However, that jumped up to an 84% snap% last week (his second-highest snap rate of the season) and he responded with a 12/8/118/1 target/receiving line while commanding a monstrous 63.5% share of the total air yards. Evans should be a target monster in a Chris Godwin-less Bucs passing attack and you could make a case that he has the highest ceiling of any WR on the slate this week.

 

George Pickens, PIT | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.5k | vs. CLE

Pickens, listed as questionable, is a little banged up with a hamstring injury so we’ll need to monitor his status. Assuming he plays, he should be in line for a big day. Since Russell Wilson took over at QB in week seven, Pickens has accounted for a strong 26.6% Target% and 46.6% AirYard%, the latter of which ranks 3rd among NFL WRs in that stretch. Pickens didn’t have a big game against the Browns a few weeks ago but, remember, that game was played in some very snowy conditions. On the season, the Browns are allowing 85.2 YPG to opposing WR1s, they’re 30th in WR1 DVOA, and they have surrendered the 6th most overall FPPG to WRs.

 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8k | at ARI

JSN has looked like the WR1 in this pass-happy Seahawks offense lately. Over the last four games, Smith-Njigba is averaging 8.8 Targets/gm, 6.8 receptions/gm, and 110.3 YPG with three total TDs. That has translated to a 28.7% Target% and 24.1 DKFP/20.7 FDFP per game. It’ll also be interesting to see if the absence of RB Kenneth Walker III has any trickle-down effect on the JSN and the passing game. In the first game without Walker this season (week two), JSN commanded 16 targets, catching 12 for 117 yards.

 

DeVonta Smith, PHI | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.4k | vs. CAR

This is more of a DraftKings play as DeVonta Smith has fallen under the $6k threshold there. The Eagles should be able to move the ball at will versus this Panthers' defense and, while they may take it easy on Smith’s workload after he missed the last two games with a hamstring injury, there is no question that he could go over 20 DKFP in this game while checking in with < 5% ownership. AJ Brown is the clear WR1 in this offense but the Panthers do check in at 23rd in WR2 DVOA.

 

Jerry Jeudy, CLE | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.1k | at PIT

We certainly can’t anticipate Jeudy to replicate his success from his colossal week 13 performance where he went for nine catches for 235 yards and a TD on 13 targets. However, since that game was on Monday night (after Sunday main slate salaries were released), that monster game isn’t factored into his week 14 price points. Since Jameis Winston took over as the starting QB in week eight, Jeudy leads the NFL with 614 receiving yards. The 235-yard performance is doing a lot of work there, but the point still stands. With WR Cedric Tillman (concussion) ruled out for a second consecutive game, Jeudy should be locked into 10+ targets again this week. Elijah Moore (DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.6k) also looks like a strong option after receiving 14 targets last week.

 

Jakobi Meyers, LV | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.7k | at TB

Meyers has seen at least 11 targets in three of the last four games and the switch back to Aidan O’Connell at QB has little to no impact on his role in this offense. The Raiders have no real run game to speak of, which has led them to be the most pass-happy offense in the NFL with a 65.7% PassPlay%. They’re also 6.5-point underdogs in this game, so pass volume shouldn’t be a concern and the Bucs have allowed the 5th most FPPG to WRs this season. Meyers is officially questionable with an ankle injury, so keep an eye on his status ahead of the 1 o’clock ET kickoff.

 

Jauan Jennings, SF | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.4k | vs. CHI

As mentioned, the 49ers have been dealing with a slew of injuries this season so Jauan Jennings has been one guy that has needed to step up. Over the last four weeks, he owns a team-leading 33.3% Target%. Following a couple of tough road games, the 49ers are back at home and QB Brock Purdy is another week removed from a shoulder injury that held him out of week 12 and likely limited him in week 13. The last time the 49ers were at home (and Purdy was generally healthy) was in week 11 -- Jennings went for 10 catches, 91 yards, and a TD on 11 targets in that game. We could very well see a similar volume-heavy result out of him this Sunday.

 

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6.2k | vs. JAX

I haven’t spotlighted NWI in any NFL newsletter this season because the touchdown rate just seemed unsustainable and fluke-y. But the guy just won’t stop catching TDs -- following a two-TD game last week, he now has eight TDs on just 20 receptions. He’s seeing decent target volume (5.5 targets/gm L4Games) and has clearly proven himself to be a playmaker in this offense. I don’t mind rolling the dice on him here, especially if you’re looking for a stack piece with QB Will Levis.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Brock Bowers, LV | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8k | at TB

Though he isn’t likely to win it, Bowers has made a strong case for the ROTY award. He’s been the best player at his position as a rookie and easily leads all NFL TEs in fantasy scoring. Bowers has ripped off two massive 30+ PPR performances in the last three games and he has averaged an absurd 12.0 targets/gm L4Games. The match-up sets up very well as the Bucs have allowed the most YPG to TEs L9Games (82.2 YPG) and check in at 31st in TE DVOA.

 

David Njoku, CLE | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.2k | at PIT

As long as Jameis Winston remains the QB in Cleveland, his primary weapons need to land on the DFS radar. To the same point made in the Jeudy spotlight, Njoku’s week 14 DFS salaries are not impacted by the big game he had on Monday night (17/9/52/2 target/receiving line) and he could have easily been bumped up by around $1,000 from his current salaries if DK and FD had time to react to that performance before releasing this week’s main slate salaries. Don’t expect 17 targets again but, with Cedric Tillman out, Njoku is locked into being a top two or, at worst, three option in the passing game. We can throw the poor performance he had against Pittsburgh two weeks ago out the window due to the conditions that the game was played in -- though if you recall, Njoku did drop a TD in that game.

 

Grant Calcaterra, PHI | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.3k | vs. CAR

Even though it is a notoriously volatile position, spending down at tight end hasn’t often been “the move” this season so, whenever possible, I’m trying to get up to one of the top eight-ish TEs on this slate. That said, Calcaterra might not be a bad dart throw. He’s not super cheap but, with Dallas Goedert (knee) ruled out, Calcaterra should be on the field for nearly every snap this week. Goedert missed three games earlier this season and Calcaterra went on to log snap rates of 71% (all PHI starters saw lower snap rates due to a 28-3 blowout over the Giants), 93%, and 92%. He’s a good bet to see a handful of targets this week and it’s a dream match-up versus the Panthers who have allowed THE most FPPG to TEs and rank 29th in TE DVOA.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Minnesota Vikings | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.7k | vs. ATL

Value D/ST: Tennessee Titans | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4k | vs. JAX

Contrarian D/ST: San Francisco 49ers | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.6k | vs. CHI

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Running Back (Game Stack)

Aidan O’Connell, Brock Bowers, Bucky Irving

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Drake London

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (FanDuel Main Slate Only SNF Game Stack)

Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, DeAndre Hopkins

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Cade Otton

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jameis Winston, Jerry Jeudy, David Njoku

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Isaac Guerendo + 49ers D/ST

Full Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Geno Smith, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Zach Charbonnet

Value Team Stack | Cheap QB/WR/RB

Will Levis, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Tony Pollard

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp RB (From a low O/U game)

Derek Carr, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Sunday Night Football Showdown Cheat Sheet

Note: I’m not sure if I’ll have time to get a SNF cheat sheet together this week but if I have some time tomorrow afternoon, I will try to send one out!

 

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!