Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

^{Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.}

LineStar NFL DFS & Prop Shows w/ Tyler Wiemann

Stay up-to-date with all of the latest DFS and prop betting content by subscribing to the LineStar YouTube channel! 

🏈 More of Tyler’s prop picks can be found on the LineStar YouTube Shorts page! 🏈

Main Slate Rundown 📝

Week 15 delivers a 13-game main slate, the largest we’ve seen in a long time, now that byes and international contests are behind us, and the playoff push is officially in high gear! Most matchup totals sit in the low-40s or upper-30s, creating a slate defined by modest scoring environments, but we also get a few true shootout candidates that should feature plenty of favorable DFS options. Temperatures across much of the country are expected to drop significantly by Sunday afternoon, adding another layer of volatility, particularly for passing games and kicking situations in outdoor stadiums. The board includes multiple double-digit favorites alongside a handful of coin-flip matchups, and with 26 teams in play, we’ve got a lot to dig into, so let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Also, it’s 2025, and 44-year-old Phillip Rivers has returned from retirement and will start in an NFL game this Sunday for a Colts team looking to earn a playoff berth… wild!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report 🌦️

• BAL at CIN (1:00 ET, 51.5 O/U): Teens at kickoff with calm 5–10mph winds and no snow in the forecast. Extreme cold has some correlation with reduced scoring, but it’s far less impactful than wind, and Cincinnati’s heated surface helps limit field concerns.
  

• LAC at KC (1:00 ET, 41.5 O/U): Temps around 20 degrees with light winds and no precipitation expected, and KC’s heated field should limit footing issues. Cold can dent efficiency a bit, but conditions overall are manageable.

  WAS at NYG (1:00 ET, 46.5 O/U): Below-freezing temperatures with 10–15mph winds and gusts near 25mph. Early-morning snow should be cleared by kickoff, but with no heated field, this remains a spot where footing and downfield efficiency could take a hit.
  

• LV at PHI (1:00 ET, 38.5 O/U): Similar setup to NYG -- pregame snow clearing by early morning, temps in the low 20s, and 10–15mph winds gusting near 25mph for single-digit “feels-like” temps. Philadelphia’s heated field helps, but expect some drag on passing efficiency.
  

• CLE at CHI (1:00 ET, 38.5 O/U): Frigid, brutal temps around 10 degrees with a 10mph wind pushing “feels-like” temps below zero. Chicago is another spot with a heated field, which will help things footing-wise, but this still profiles as a low-efficiency passing environment.
  

• BUF at NE (1:00 ET, 49.5 O/U): Snow tapers off around kickoff, leaving cold conditions below freezing with 10mph winds and gusts over 20mph. New England’s heated surface helps stability, but gusts could still affect kicking and deeper throws.
  

• IND at SEA (4:25 ET, 42.5 O/U): A passing shower is possible, but should be light coverage and minimal intensity. Likely a minor factor unless a heavier cell pops up during the game.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Matthew Stafford, LAR | DK: $7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. DET

Stafford has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in football for months now, ranking as the QB4 in fantasy points since Week 4 behind only Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and Patrick Mahomes. He’s coming off another sharp performance with 281 yards and three touchdowns against Arizona, and he now walks into the highest-total game on the slate at 54.5 points with the Rams implied total sitting north of 30 points. The matchup sets up extremely well, as Detroit’s secondary has been gutted by injuries and just lost another key piece with All-Pro safety Brian Branch (Achilles) being placed on IR. Injuries have contributed to the Lions allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks over the last four weeks. Stafford’s ceiling is as strong as any QB on the board despite his lack of rushing, and his efficiency has remained elite with 35 touchdowns to just four interceptions. He’s been at his best across his six games at home, where he has averaged 282.2 YPG with a 16:0 TD:INT ratio and a 117.12 passer rating. In a projected shootout with concentrated passing volume, he profiles as one of the top raw-ceiling options on both major sites.

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.4k | vs. BAL

Burrow looked far more like his old self last week, posting 284 yards and four touchdowns against Buffalo, and that performance puts him back in play at a modest salary in a matchup he’s historically excelled in. These teams produced two high-end fantasy shootouts last season, with Burrow reaching 36.7 and 37.8 DKFP in those meetings, and while the Week 13 matchup fell flat, the underlying game environment still offers ceiling potential if Cincinnati can dictate tempo. His pOwn% also sits in the single digits, which is notable given his proven ability to break a slate when healthy. Baltimore’s defense has been beatable, and they check in at a subpar 23^rd in pass DVOA. Burrow won’t have WR Tee Higgins (concussion/out) at his disposal, but his rediscovered efficiency in Week 14 makes him a viable tournament pivot off the more popular options.

Jaxson Dart, NYG | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7.6k | vs. WAS

Dart was one of the breakout stories of the early season, averaging 23.3 DKFP across his first seven starts, which trailed only Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford over that stretch, but his return from a concussion in Week 13 was noticeably muted. He turned in just 13.6 DKFP in a difficult matchup against New England, and the bigger concern was the complete disappearance of his designed rushing usage, which had previously driven nearly half of his fantasy value and several of his rushing touchdowns. New York’s Week 14 bye gives him extra time to reset, and the matchup could not be much more favorable, as Washington ranks 29^th in pass DVOA and have allowed the 5^th-most adjusted FPPG to QBs. Dart still showed some mobility with four scrambles for 20 yards in his last start, but his ceiling hinges on whether the Giants are willing to lean back into his designed rush rate. If that element returns, he’s dramatically underpriced for this kind of matchup; if not, he settles in as more of a volatile tournament option with passing-dependent upside.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.5k | at LAR

Gibbs has played his way into elite fantasy territory, averaging 5.7 YPC with 16 total touchdowns and finishing as the overall RB1 in two of the past three weeks, and the workload shift has only strengthened his profile. Over Detroit’s last four games, he’s handled just under 70% of the rushing attempts, drawn a 23.5% Target%, and logged a strong 71% snap rate, effectively operating as a bell cow even with David Montgomery still involved. The matchup is a real challenge, as the Rams rank eighth in RB DVOA, third in rush DVOA, and allow the second-fewest adjusted FPPG to running backs, but game script should work in his favor with Detroit entering as six-point underdogs. That setup elevates his receiving ceiling, which has already been a major driver of his production, and ensures he stays heavily involved regardless of how the game unfolds. In a pivotal spot for the Lions’ playoff odds (72% playoff chance w/ a win, 40% w/ a loss), Gibbs’ combination of explosive efficiency and elevated pass-game usage keeps him firmly in play despite the difficult defensive draw.

Derrick Henry, BAL| DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.4k | at CIN

Henry is a classic, old-school workhorse in a landscape dominated by dual-threat backs, and while that limits his weekly receiving floor, it doesn’t diminish his ability to break a slate when the matchup tilts in his favor. Cincinnati has been the softest run defense in football, ranking dead last in RB DVOA, 31st in rush DVOA, and allowing the most adjusted FPPG to the position, and Henry still delivered 17.4 DKFP against them two weeks ago despite logging only 24 snaps and 11 touches in a blowout loss. He’s also showing more week-to-week stability over the last couple of months, rather than earlier in the season. With temperatures projected in the 10–15 degree range, the setup further tilts toward a battering-ram runner who becomes increasingly difficult to bring down as conditions get harsher. Henry’s multi-touchdown upside remains firmly intact here, giving him a clear path to a ceiling performance if Baltimore can simply keep this game competitive. 

Travis Etienne, JAX | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.5k | vs. NYJ

Etienne draws one of the cleanest setups on the slate as Jacksonville enters as a massive 13.5-point home favorite against a Jets team starting undrafted rookie QB Brady Cook. ETN’s workload ticked up last week with a 72% snap rate and 76% of the carries after Bhayshul Tuten’s fumbled a couple of times, and while both backs could be involved in a potential blowout, Etienne still profiles as the clear lead option. The Jets have been gashed on the ground lately, surrendering 239 rushing yards to Miami in Week 14 and 167 to Atlanta the week prior, signaling a notable late-season decline in their front. Over the Jets’ last four games, they’ve allowed the most FPPG to RBs (37.6) and a whopping 2.3 TDs/gm to the position. With the Jags likely to control the game script throughout, Etienne’s combination of volume, goal-line access, and matchup strength makes him a strong mid-range RB option on both sites.

Woody Marks, HOU | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. ARI

Marks has emerged as Houston’s clear lead back, logging a 70% snap rate and 75% carry share since Week 10, and last week’s usage spike to 87% of snaps AND carries only reinforced his grip on the role. He’ll be more likely to handle a similar share of the RB workload if Nick Chubb (ribs/questionable) is ruled out. Marks’ passing-game involvement has been limited with just a 6.8% Target%, but he’s handled the bulk of the short- and long-yardage work, giving him consistent touch volume at a discounted salary. The matchup is also ideal, as Arizona has cratered defensively down the stretch, ranking 27th in rush DVOA since Week 10, and they just gave up nearly 250 rushing yards to the Rams last week. This is a great spot for Marks to go for 100+ scrimmage yards, and he owns excellent -160 ATTD (anytime touchdown) odds. Given the workload stability and the defensive matchup, Marks profiles as one of the strongest value RBs on the slate and an easy fit in all formats.

Devin Neal, NO | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.1k | vs. CAR

With Alvin Kamara sidelined for a third straight week, Neal is positioned to handle another featured workload after logging 71% and 82% snap rates over his past two games and racking up 37 total touches in that span. The Saints have looked more functional offensively with Tyler Shough at the helm, highlighted by last week’s upset win in Tampa Bay, which helps stabilize Neal’s touchdown equity after he scored his first NFL TD in the last contest. Carolina has quietly become a run funnel, allowing over 140 scrimmage yards per game, 1.5 touchdowns per game, and the sixth-most FPPG to running backs across their last four outings. At these salaries, Neal’s combination of volume, red-zone access, and matchup strength makes him an appealing value option

Chuba Hubbard, CAR | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.9k | at NO

Hubbard resurfaced as Carolina’s lead back heading into the bye, logging a 59% snap rate, 49% carry share (both were his highest marks since Week 8), and a 10% Target% in Week 13 before converting that workload into more than 20 PPR points in the massive upset win over the Rams. That usage swing is meaningful after several weeks of Rico Dowdle leading the backfield, and Hubbard’s performance makes it difficult to envision the Panthers scaling him back in Week 15. He remains priced as a backup on DraftKings, which creates clear value if his role even moderately resembles what we saw before the bye. The matchup is competitive but not prohibitive (NO: 21^st in RB DVOA), and Carolina enters as a slight 2.5-point road favorite with a chance to control the script. More of a DK play this week, but Hubbard’s regained workload and path to 15+ touches put him firmly on the value radar.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Puka Nacua, LAR | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.7k | vs. DET

This is the premier fantasy environment of the week, and Nacua walks into it operating once again as the Rams’ clear WR1. His role has remained elite all season, with targets on 38% of his routes and at least a 33% Target% in back-to-back games, and the long-awaited positive touchdown regression finally arrived last week when he erupted for 7/167/2 on 11 targets. Detroit has been a particularly friendly matchup for alpha perimeter receivers, allowing the most fantasy points to WRs over the past four weeks and the most FPPG to right-side wideouts this season, which directly aligns with Nacua’s usage (54% RightPerimeterRoute%). The Rams own the slate’s highest implied total and have consistently funneled their passing game through Nacua in competitive spots, making his ceiling as strong as any WR on the board.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.2k | vs. BAL

Burrow’s return has reignited Cincinnati’s offense, and Chase immediately benefits from that shift as the Bengals enter Week 15 with condensed volume and a familiar high-ceiling matchup. Even with a quieter box score last week, he’s held a strong 28% Target% across the past two games, and Tee Higgins’ concussion pushes Chase back into a dominant alpha role. When Higgins has been out, Chase’s usage has been enormous -- at least 11 targets in each of his past four games without him, including 14 looks (31.8% Target%) and 45.1% AirYard% in Burrow’s return vs. Baltimore in Week 13. His track record against the Ravens is exceptional, and he combined for an otherworldly 457 yards and five TDs on 21 receptions in his two games against Baltimore last season. Baltimore has allowed the 4^th-most adjusted FPPG to opposing WRs this season, and their scheme consistently funnels volume to primary weapons on the perimeter.

Nico Collins, HOU | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.3k | vs. ARI

Collins continues to operate as the Texans’ clear No. 1 option, owning a 26.2% Target% on the season and a boosted 30.5% mark -- along with an elite 46.7% AirYard% -- in the two games since C.J. Stroud returned. He’s delivered at least 19.1 DKFP in both contests, flashing strong per-target efficiency and even adding a rushing score two weeks ago. The matchup sets up well, as Arizona is coming off a game in which Puka Nacua carved them up and has struggled for most of the season against perimeter receivers. Houston doesn’t possess the same offensive ceiling as Los Angeles, but Collins’ role is every bit that of a mid-range WR1, and with strong volume, a favorable matchup, and a condensed passing tree, Collins stands out as one of the better mid-tier options on this slate.

Michael Wilson, ARI | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7k | at HOU

Wilson has been one of the league’s most productive high-volume receivers whenever Marvin Harrison Jr. has been sidelined, drawing at least 15 targets in all three games without him, which equates to a 33.6% Target% as well as a mammoth 56.2% AirYard% across Weeks 11, 12, and 14. He has converted this incredible volume into 36.5, 24.8, and 40.2 DKFP finishes. That level of usage puts him in rare company, and his ability to sustain efficiency on that volume makes him a legitimate ceiling play even in difficult matchups. This week, though, he runs into arguably the toughest draw on the board against a Texans defense that ranks first in pass DVOA and has allowed the third-fewest PPR points to opposing wideouts. Volume alone keeps him viable, and his ownership should be more reasonable than in previous Harrison-less weeks, which strengthens his appeal for tournaments. The floor is shakier given the defensive matchup, but the role-driven ceiling remains very real.

Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG | DK: $5.9k, FD: $5.8k | vs. WAS

Robinson has become one of the league’s true volume magnets with Malik Nabers sidelined, posting a 34.4% Target% since Week 9 -- a mark that places him alongside the most heavily used receivers in football. His targets come with a modest 8.6-yard aDOT, but the sheer volume has kept his fantasy floor stable, and he still commanded a 33.3% Target% in Dart’s return last week. Robinson has logged double-digit PPR points in five of his past seven games with the rookie QB, and at this salary, that consistency matters. Washington offers one of the softest matchups on the slate, allowing the ninth-most PPR points to receivers, giving Robinson another path to strong volume-driven production. 

Mitchell Tinsley, CIN | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.3k | vs. BAL

With Tee Higgins sidelined, Tinsley steps back into a meaningful secondary role and has shown he can earn volume when the Bengals are shorthanded. In his most recent game without Higgins, he drew a 20.5% Target% and a 33% AirYard% despite running fewer routes than Andrei Iosivas, and he also saw an 18.7% Target% with a touchdown in Week 12 when Chase was out. His downfield usage (15.9 aDOT) creates volatility, but it also gives him clear big-play potential at a near-minimum salary. As a WR3 punt who enables premium builds, he’s firmly in play for value.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

George Kittle, SF | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.4k | vs. TEN

TEN has become a pass-funnel defense over the last 4 weeks. According to the TEAM DEF Tool, they rank 30th vs. QB/WR1 and 31st vs. TE1. In a week where the field is paying down for Andrews, Likely, or Fannin, you could flip the script and pay up to a guy that has the break the slate type potential in a great matchup.

Mark Andrews/Isaiah Likely, BAL | DK: $3.9k/$3.4k, FD: $5.3k/$5.2 | @ CIN

You play TE vs CIN:

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Jacksonville Jaguars | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.9k | vs. NYJ

Value D/ST: New Orleans | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.2k | Vs. CAR

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!