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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Bye weeks are over so we’ll be looking to tackle one of the largest Sunday main slates of the season! A 12-game slate hits DraftKings and, with the inclusion of the SNF game, FanDuel’s main slate will feature 13 games. There are several pivotal match-ups on the board this Sunday that possess plenty of playoff implications but, above it all, we’ll have a potential “game of the year” candidate between the Bills and Lions! It should be a fun but hectic slate, so let’s see if we can crack the code. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• CIN at TEN (1:00 ET, 46.5 O/U): Light-to-moderate rain expected. 10-15 mph winds with stronger gusts. Not awful conditions but clearly not the best either.

• KC at CLE (1:00 ET, 42.5 O/U): Rain is expected for most/all of this game. Temps will be in the upper 30s, with sustained winds at 15-20 mph with 30+ mph gusts. Overall, this is not a game I’d be thrilled to be at, and both offenses should be affected by the weather here.

• NYJ at JAX (1:00 ET, 40.5 O/U): Winds around 15 mph with 20+ mph gusts. Typically, these aren’t super impactful conditions but these are two lackluster offenses and it’s no surprise to see the lowest total of the week here.

• DAL at CAR (1:00 ET, 43.0 O/U): Rain is possible.

• IND at DEN (4:25 ET, 44.0 O/U): Fairly breezy, likely higher winds in the first half. Other than that, no issues.

• GB @ SEA (8:20 ET, 46.5 O/U): Rain is possible.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.5k | at DET

Allen’s week 14 performance where he totaled six TDs (3 pass/3 rush) and 50+ FP was an abrupt reminder that he’s one of the few players in the NFL who can break a slate to that degree. We certainly can’t expect a repeat performance but this game with its close spread (BUF +2.5) and huge total (54.0 O/U) is clearly a game we’ll want to target. Despite missing a ton of starters, the Lions’ defense has been among the best in the NFL. They rank 1st in pass DVOA and have allowed the 7th fewest adjusted FP to QBs. That said, they do allow +28% more FPPG to QBs when at home. Detroit also plays the second-highest man coverage rate in the NFL and Josh Allen has excelled versus man. The Lions have given up the 7th most rushing yards to QBs this season as well, so Allen could certainly add plenty of value on the ground again. He’ll be a luxury spend-up this week but, if you can find some value plays that you’re comfortable with, it can’t hurt to squeeze Allen into more aggressive lineup builds.

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $8.3k | at HOU

Tua is the QB2 in FPPG over the last four weeks, averaging 27.4 FPPG, 325.0 YPG, and 2.8 pass TD/gm on an outstanding 75.1% completion rate. On a week where several outdoor games have some sort of weather issues, it’s probably not a bad idea to target these domed match-ups. The Texans' defense is a bit of a pass funnel and has allowed the most passing TDs in the NFL. Opposing QBs are also attempting 37.8 pass attempts per game against the Texans over the L4Games. FanDuel has Tagovailoa priced more appropriately (still firmly in play) but, given how well he has performed lately, the $6,100 DraftKings price is a bit of a head-scratcher.

Will Levis, TEN | DK: $5k, FD: $6.6k | vs. CIN

Levis burned us as a value target last week but we’ll hold our noses and go back to him in hopes of a bounce back. This Bengals defense is the tide that raises all ships -- the ships being opposing QB fantasy scores. Cincinnati is 30th in pass DVOA, they have allowed the 3rd most adjusted FPPG to QBs on the season, and THE most FPPG to QBs over their L4Games. As bad as the defense has been, the Cincy offense is still among the best in the NFL so the Titans should need to lean pass-heavy this week and, if he can regain the form he had between weeks 10-13, a ~20 FP outing is well within the range of outcomes for Levis.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Saquon Barkley, PHI | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.3k | vs. PIT

This is a “match-up be damned” play. Saquon should fall under 10% ownership on this slate despite averaging 185.3 total YPG with five TDs over his last four games. The Steelers are also mid-pack (14th) in rush DVOA, so it’s not as brutal of a match-up as some may perceive it to be. The threat of Jalen Hurts punching in all of the rushing TDs from the one-yard line is always there, but Saquon could handle 25+ touches in this one -- if the TD luck goes in his favor, he should be in line for another huge game.

Derrick Henry, BAL | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.2k | at NYG

Baltimore is fresh off of a bye week and King Henry will get to face a Giants defense allowing the second-highest yards after contact and third-highest explosive run rate. Henry ranks second in the NFL in rushing yards, fifth in yards per touch, and has the sixth-most red zone touches, giving him elite touchdown equity. Only Saquon Barkley has more explosive rushing yards than Henry this season -- so if you’re not high on the aforementioned Saquon due to his match-up, Henry is going to make plenty of sense as a premium spend-up in a much friendlier match-up.

Chase Brown, CIN | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.1k | at TEN

Chase Brown posted another strong outing on Monday night with 20 touches, over 100 scrimmage yards, and a touchdown. Ever since Zack Moss went down for the season, Brown has had at least five receptions in four of those five games and he has had among the best snap rates at the position, playing no fewer than 80% of the snaps in that five-game stretch. Despite Tennessee’s strong run defense, Brown’s volume and recent production (2nd in RB FPPG over L5Games) justify his salary. Some rainy/windy weather in this one could also place more of a focus on the run game and short dump-off passes to the RB.

Chuba Hubbard, CAR | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.5k | vs. DAL

This Panthers’ offense has been surprisingly competent over the last month-plus and there is no reason to shy away from their key pieces against a porous Cowboys defense. Hubbard has been a workhorse for much of this season and ranks 2nd among RBs on this slate with a 77% snap% on the year. Rookie RB Jonathan Brooks, who made his NFL debut in week 12, was poised to eat into Hubbard’s heavy workload, but he, unfortunately, suffered a torn ACL last week in the same knee that he had ligament damage in last November, which subsequently kept him out for most of this season. The Panthers are also without backup RBs Miles Sanders (ankle/IR) and Raheem Blackshear (chest/out), leaving Mike Boone as the lone remaining healthy RB who has played any amount of snaps this season (played just five snaps all the way back in week one). So Hubbard could play nearly every offensive snap this week (he logged a season-high 97% snap% in week 14) and he quietly ranks sixth in rushing yards, 10th in touchdowns, and seventh in carries. Despite lackluster blocking (1.9 yards before contact), Hubbard’s 2.9 yards after contact and seventh-best success rate among backs with 100+ carries profile him as an efficient runner. He’ll be in a strong spot versus a Dallas defense ranked 24th in DVOA-adjusted FP allowed to RBs and is tied for the most yards allowed before contact.

Rico Dowdle, DAL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.1k | at CAR

We’ll go to Hubbard’s counterpart and also spotlight Dowdle, who finds himself in a stellar match-up. It only took the majority of the season, but the Cowboys seem to have finally come to their senses by giving Dowdle the lion’s share of the RB snaps and touches instead of wasting fruitless touches on a washed-up Zeke Elliott. In all four games where Dowdle has handled at least 16 touches, he has produced at least 107 scrimmage yards. He now faces the Panthers, who rank dead last in rush DVOA, success rate allowed, and yards per attempt. Dowdle is no longer flying under the radar, but he should be a strong bet to rack up another 100+ yards and a TD this week.

Rachaad White, TB | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.2k | at LAC

Unlike last week, there isn’t a ton of standout RB value, but Rachaad White would be in line for a workhorse role if Bucky Irving (back/questionable) is unable to suit up. This is a 4:25 ET kickoff so, even though White would still receive solid volume if Irving is active, it’s worth having a late swap plan in place if you like another player more [than White] at a similar price point.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Josh Jacobs, GB | DK: N/A, FD: $8.2k | at SEA

Zach Charbonnet, SEA | DK: N/A, FD: $6.7k | vs. GB

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. BUF

ARSB had an eight-game TD streak come to an end in week 11 and he hasn’t found the endzone since. The target volume has been shockingly low for a player of St. Brown’s caliber but the Lions just keep on winning so it’s tough to criticize anything that Dan Campbell & Co. are doing. However, a match-up with Buffalo could lead to a back-and-forth shootout and if Jared Goff is forced to pass more than usual, we may finally get a 10+ target day for St. Brown. The slot, which is where St. Brown has run over half of his routes, is the best spot to target the Bills. Over the last eight weeks, Buffalo has allowed the 6th most FPPG to slot WRs.

Tyreek Hill, MIA | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.7k | at HOU

Tyreek Hill looks to be back to full speed, with 23 targets, 16 receptions, 198 yards, and two touchdowns in the past two weeks alone. Despite Houston's middling defense (19th in WR1 DVOA), Hill remains a top option -- in a “down” season, he is still 13th among WRs in targets, 12th in receptions, and 10th in red zone targets. The discount is gone, but Hill is still a strong play, especially if you’re stacking with Tua.

Terry McLaurin, WAS | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.2k | at NO

McLaurin has run the vast majority of his routes -- 77% to be exact -- on the left perimeter. That should place him in a favorable spot against rookie corner Kool-Aid McKinstry, who has covered that side of the field 75% of the time. McKinstry has allowed 10.8 air yards per target and 1.07 yards per route covered. The Saints as a whole are allowing just under 200 YPG to WRs L4Games and the 6th most FPPG to the position. McLaurin comes into this game ranking sixth in yards, second in touchdowns, and 15th in yards per route run, making him the WR11 in FPPG this season.

Malik Nabers, NYG | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8k | vs. BAL

I don’t believe anyone is excited about any part of this Tommy DeVito-led Giants offense but that should keep a guy like Nabers under 10% ownership. Baltimore ranks dead last in WR1 DVOA, allowing 99.8 YPG to WR1s this season, and there is no question that Nabers is the top pass catcher on this team. The Giants should be trailing right away in this one, leading to a very pass-heavy game script, and, even though they’re Tommy Cutlets targets, Nabers could very well see 15+ looks this Sunday.

Ladd McConkey, LAC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.1k | vs. TB

We’ll need to make sure McConkey (knee/shoulder/questionable) is back in action after missing week 14’s contest, but he has been able to get in limited practices all week, which bodes well for his availability. He has developed into QB Justin Herbert’s top option and McConkey (72% SlotRoute%) draws an excellent match-up versus the Bucs, who have surrendered the 3rd most FPPG to slot WRs on the year.

Adam Thielen, CAR | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.1k | vs. DAL

Thielen L2Games: 21 Targets (28.4% Target%), 17 Receptions, 201 Yards, 1 TD, 74% Snap%, and 21.6 PPR FPPG. Thielen still has plenty of “crafty veteran” juice left in the tank and it doesn’t hurt that Bryce Young has been a serviceable-looking NFL QB lately. Thielen is yet another slot WR (77% SlotRoute%) who draws a strong match-up as the Cowboys have allowed the 5th most FPPG to slot WRs over their last four games.

Amari Cooper, BUF | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.9k | at DET

Cooper had his most involved game as a Buffalo Bill in week 14, catching 6-of-14 targets for 95 yards. A sub-50% catch rate is pretty ugly, but the fact that QB Josh Allen threw it in Cooper’s direction on 37.8% of his pass attempts is the main takeaway here -- and Cooper played just a 53% snap% last week. We can’t count on the same sort of target volume this week but it seems like the Bills are trying to develop some chemistry between Allen and Cooper ahead of the playoffs, and this game will definitely have a playoff atmosphere to it. It’s also worth noting that Cooper has run nearly half of his routes on the left perimeter, which is where the Lions’ pass defense has been most forgiving, allowing the 8th most FPPG to LWRs over their last eight games.

Jalen McMillan, TB | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5.5k | at LAC

This is perhaps a bit “point chase-y” following McMillan’s two-touchdown game last week, but he does appear to be the clear-cut WR2 and has ranked second among Bucs WRs in snaps in each of the last three games. The Chargers’ pass defense has looked vulnerable in recent weeks, allowing the 10th most FPPG to WRs L4Games, and, as far as cheap fliers go, McMillan seems like a decent option in his newly expanded role.

Dyami Brown, WAS | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.9k | at NO

Brown is a very intriguing punt play, particularly on DraftKings where he is just $100 above the stone minimum. WR Noah Brown (kidney/IR) will miss significant time, so other WRs will need to step up behind Terry McLaurin. Dyami Brown did play the second most WR snaps in Washington’s week 13 game before their bye. Worth noting, Noah Brown played 46% of the snaps that week (Dyami Brown: 52% snap%) so it’ll be interesting to see where Dyami’s snaps jump to now that Noah Brown will be out for the entire game.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA | DK: N/A, FD: $8.1k | vs. GB

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.7k | at CLE

As covered in the weather section, conditions in this game look ugly -- it’s going to be cold, rainy, and windy. But that may just put more of a focus on the short-to-intermediate passing game, where Travis Kelce tends to thrive. Kelce has garnered at least 12 targets in four of the previous seven games, and the Browns have been torched by TEs lately, allowing 7.3 receptions/gm, 72.5 YPG, 0.5 TDs/gm, and 25.9 DKFP/22.0 FDFP per game to the position over their L4Games. Kelce has just two TDs on the season, which has kept his DFS scores in check for much of the campaign, but he could be poised for a big week.

Mark Andrews, BAL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $6.3k | at NYG

Andrews leads all NFL TEs with a 9.6-yard aDOT and has hauled in seven touchdowns in the Ravens’ last eight games. The Giants have given up the 2nd fewest FPPG to TEs this season but they check in at 30th in TE DVOA so it’s not as tough of a spot as the surface results may indicate. The Ravens should have zero issues moving the ball against the Giants defense and I would guess that Andrews sees at least a couple of targets in the endzone on Sunday.

Jordan Akins, CLE | DK: $2.7k, FD: $4.8k | vs. KC

This play is largely contingent on David Njoku (hamstring/questionable) sitting out. Njoku hasn’t practiced in any capacity all week, so it would seem that he’s on the wrong side of his questionable designation. Akins would be due for a significant snap increase if Njoku is out and QB Jameis Winston hasn’t been shy about throwing it to his TEs. Since Winston took over as the starting QB in Week 8, Browns TEs have averaged a whopping 12.8 Targets/gm. Of course, most of those targets went to Njoku, who is a much better player than Akins. But, to the same point made in the Kelce spotlight, weather could force plenty of targets into the short-to-intermediate range (where TEs typically operate) and it wouldn’t surprise me if Akins sees 8+ targets this week (assuming Njoku sits). The Chiefs have been vulnerable against TEs all season, allowing the 2nd most FPPG to the position.

Stone Smartt, LAC | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. TB

Smartt is another cheap TE option with Will Dissly ruled out with a shoulder injury. Smartt would be even more appealing if WR Ladd McConkey (knee/shoulder/questionable) is out again. Smartt caught all three of his targets for 54 yards last week while playing 37% of the snaps. Dissly played 40% of the snaps before getting injured on the final play of the first half, so Smartt could realistically play upwards of a 70% snap% this week. The Bucs have not been great versus TEs, ranking 27th in TE DVOA and allowing the 6th most FPPG to the position.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Baltimore Ravens | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5k | at NYG

Value D/ST: Cleveland Browns | DK: $2.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. KC

DraftKings Value D/ST: New York Jets | DK: $3k, FD: $4.9k | at JAX

Contrarian D/ST: Jacksonville Jaguars | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. NYJ

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Running Back (Game Stack)

Josh Allen, Amari Cooper, Jahmyr Gibbs

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Nico Collins

QB + WR/TE + Opp RB (FanDuel Main Slate Only SNF Game Stack)

Jordan Love, Romeo Doubs, Zach Charbonnet

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Dyami Brown

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Derrick Henry + Ravens D/ST

Full Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmy Gibbs

Value Team Stack | Cheap QB/WR/RB

Bryce Young, Adam Thielen, Chuba Hubbard

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR/TE + Opp WR (From a low O/U game)

Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Jerry Jeudy

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!