Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

Top DFS Offers 12/17/23 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

• Sleeper DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Underdog DFS - Deposit Match up to $500 🔥

• Thrive DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Chalkboard DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 ⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️

• Parlay Play - Free $5 Entry no Deposit Required 🆕

^{Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.}

LineStar DFS Picks & Prop Shows

w/ Tyler Wiemann & Shannon Sommerville.

Stay up-to-date with all of the latest DFS and prop betting content by subscribing to the LineStar YouTube channel!

Main Slate Rundown 📝

It’s week 15 already and an intriguing 10-game Sunday main slate hits the board! I’m not sure I’ve seen a slate set up quite like this one before. The three games with, by far, the highest totals of the day will be exclusively slotted into the 4 o’clock ET window. All three 4 o’clock games have a lofty over/under of at least 48.5 points while only two of the seven one o’clock ET kick-offs have a total of at least 40 points, with 42.5 being the highest (TB @ GB). Vegas over/unders aren’t everything but we can expect for many of the most appealing DFS plays to come from those three late games. Loading up on high total games is not some revolutionary or sneaky DFS approach so we can expect for a huge amount of ownership to land on those three games as well. So it will come down to which players we can hit on in those seven 1 o’clock games that will likely make or break this slate. Let’s try to crack the code! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• ATL @ CAR: Moderate to heavy rain all game long. Sustained winds around 15 mph with stronger gusts. So, ugly conditions all around in this one.

• NYJ @ MIA: Rain pregame but should be gone by kickoff. 20 mph winds with 30 mph gusts are the most notable weather headlines here. Downfield passing games will get a downgrade.

• CHI @ CLE: Looks like another spot with rain for the entirety of the game, though, perhaps not as heavy as in Charlotte. Still, it’s not a great sign for a big offensive showing. 10-20 mph winds as well.

• TB @ GB: Chance for rain, but nothing too worrisome.

• DAL @ BUF: Rain is expected for most/all of the game with 10-15 mph winds.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Fields, CHI | $7k, FD: $7.9k | @ CLE

Like many recent slates, only four or five quarterbacks are going to take on the vast majority of ownership. Justin Fields is not one of them. Several factors are working against this play -- primarily the bad weather combined with having to face a tough defense on the road (CLE allows -47% less FPPG to QBs at home). But the Bears offense is just so heavily reliant on Fields, both as a passer and as a runner. And if they end up exceeding offensive expectations by scoring three, four, or perhaps even five touchdowns, Fields may play a part in each one of them. There’s plenty of risk here, but the upside for Fields is undeniable even in a poor match-up, and he’s likely going to be around 5% owned, or lower.

Brock Purdy, SF | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.4k | @ ARI

Purdy will be a much safer, yet much chalkier, QB option this week. He has gone for at least 23.84 DKFP in five of the last six games and, while he tends to put up bigger numbers at home, that’s been less of a negative trend over the last month or so. The Cardinals, who rank 31st in pass DVOA, also allow +24% more FPPG to QBs when playing at home (last nine games). The 49ers will once again lead the slate in implied points (30.3) and, when his core weapons of CMC, Deebo, Aiyuk, and Kittle are all healthy, Purdy and this San Fran offense are nearly impossible to stop with any consistency.

Matthew Stafford, LAR | DK: $6k, FD: $7.2k | vs. WAS

After a pretty mundane season, Stafford finally began to turn it on in week 12 and he’s been solid ever since. Over his last three games, he’s averaging 23.7 FPPG and has thrown 10 touchdowns against just one interception. Attacking this awful Commanders' pass defense has been a go-to approach all season. They rank dead last in pass DVOA and have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to QBs along with 2.7 pass TDs/gm over their last nine. Around 280 yards and two or three touchdowns feels like a pretty safe floor projection for Stafford here and his ceiling is beyond that. The 6-7 Rams are still in the playoff hunt so we can expect them to be aggressive in a very winnable game on Sunday. And Stafford remains a very affordable DFS investment. He won’t be a low-owned QB but certainly a tough guy to ignore.

Case Keenum, HOU | DK: $4k, FD: $6k | @ TEN

No CJ Stroud (concussion/out) this week so the Texans will hand the keys to the offense over to Keenum. The Texans receiving corps is also extremely banged up but Keenum is the stone minimum on both sites and gets an ‘okay’ match-up against the Titans this week. He’s primarily worth a look on DraftKings where that $4,000 salary opens up a ton of roster flexibility. If I’m going cheap at QB on FanDuel, I’d probably rather find the extra $600 - $1,200 in salary to get up to a more established quarterback.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10.5k | @ ARI

Nothing groundbreaking here. If you want the safest floor at the position, make room for CMC. As poor as the Cardinals are against the pass, they’re equally as bad against the run, ranking 28th in rush DVOA and allowing the 2nd most FPPG to RBs. Feels like another week where CMC goes for 150+ total yards and a touchdown or two. Due to his big salaries, he’s probably best suited for cash games but you also don’t want to miss the boat if this is a ceiling week for McCaffrey -- it’s certainly the right match-up to break off one of those ceiling games of his.

Rachaad White, TB | DK: $7k, FD: $7.6k | @ GB

Volume and consistency have been the name of the game for White this season. He has either 99+ scrimmage yards or a touchdown (or both) in each of the previous eight games. White also leads all NFL RBs in routes run this season (301) so he always provides some receiving upside. It’s a solid match-up against a Packers D that checks in at 25th in rush DVOA and has allowed the 8th most FPPG to the RB position this season.

Bijan Robinson, ATL | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.6k | @ CAR

In their defense, Carolina has been a bit better against the run in recent weeks but they’re still allowing 1.3 TDs/gm to RBs L4Weeks and, on the season, they remain 32nd in rush DVOA. After some frustrating usage from Bijan over the first half of the season, the stud rookie RB has handled at least 75% of the snaps in three of the last four weeks. Given the ugly, wet, and windy weather expected in this game, we can predict a very run-heavy/short pass-heavy game script for the Falcons, which clearly bodes well for Bijan’s skill set. Atlanta is just a three-point favorite against the 1-12 Panthers, so I’m sure they’ll be content with getting a lead, melting the clock, and getting out of town with a win while keeping their division-winning playoff hopes alive.

Ezekiel Elliott, NE | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.5k | vs. KC

Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) is out for a second consecutive game which means we should expect another heavy dose of Zeke this Sunday. Zeke was a true workhorse last week against the Steelers. He played 91% of the snaps and saw all 30 of the Patriots’ RB opportunities (22 carries, 8 targets). The Pats are sizable eight-point home underdogs against the Chiefs, but Zeke’s potential for 20-30 touches is impossible to look past. The Chiefs' defense also hasn’t been overly stout against RBs lately, allowing the 8th most FPPG to the position L4Weeks.

Antonio Gibson, WAS | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.6k | @ LAR

Brian Robinson Jr. (hamstring/out) exited last week’s game after playing 22% of the snaps. Now that he’s been ruled out this week, Gibson should be in line for the bulk of the Commanders RB touches. RB Chris Rodriguez Jr. (DK: $4.5k, FD: $4.7k) will see an expanded role as well, but Gibson should be “the guy” and offers more upside as a pass catcher as well. Gibson ended up playing 56% of the snaps last week and had 15 opportunities (10 carries, 5 targets) compared to a 22% snap% and seven opportunities (all carries) for Rodriguez. The Rams have not allowed significant production to RBs this season (6th fewest FPPG allowed) but they are 21st in rush DVOA so it’s perhaps not as rough of a match-up as the surface stats would indicate.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.2k | vs. WAS

I almost wish Kupp would have stayed relatively quiet for another week but his 10/8/115/1 target/receiving line from last week, which produced 28.5 DKFP/21.5 FDFP, is going to cause many folks to feel much more comfortable about utilizing him in this dream match-up. Nonetheless, Kupp is worth some DFS shares against the Commanders, who have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to slot WRs over the last four weeks (Kupp: 59% SlotRoute%). He’s had an uncharacteristically low 59.4% catch rate this season but those missed connections have not entirely been his fault. Now that QB Matthew Stafford has found some more consistency in recent weeks, Kupp’s huge ceiling should be unlocked.

Brandon Aiyuk, SF | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.8k | @ ARI

I’d expect for the most popular 49ers receiver to be WR Deebo Samuel (DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.4k) this week following a two-game stretch where he combined for 288 yards and FIVE touchdowns. Of course, Deebo is firmly in play again this week but there’s also some potential ownership leverage to be gained by pivoting to his teammate, Brandon Aiyuk. When all of the core 49ers offensive playmakers are healthy, it’s a bit of a revolving door when it comes to one or two having a monster game in any given week. Aiyuk has had plenty of good to great games this season, but mostly just “good” performances recently. Perhaps this is a spot where he puts up a ceiling performance. He caught six passes for 148 yards against this Arizona secondary earlier this season and could check in at roughly half the ownership of Deebo (though, both could be played in the same lineup, especially in Purdy double-stacks).

DeAndre Hopkins, TEN | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.4k | vs. HOU

Since Will Levis took over as the Titans QB in week eight, Hopkins ranks 2nd among all NFL WRs in touchdowns (6) and he’s 3rd in air yards (932). He’s had 12 targets in back-to-back games heading into this week and Hopkins has dominated the Titans' redzone target share this season (36.6% RZ TGT%). I don’t really care about the “revenge narrative” that some people will push here. It’s just a strong spot for Hopkins against an exploitable Texans secondary that ranks 27th in WR1 DVOA and just gave up 300+ yards to Zach Wilson a week ago.

Jayden Reed, GB | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.1k | vs. TB

Is it too soon to dub Jayden Reed as “Deebo Light?” Across the last five games, Reed has emerged as both a receiving and rushing weapon for the Packers offense. In that stretch, he has a team-leading 34 targets (6.8 TGT/gm), 25 receptions (5.0 rec/gm), 110 rushing yards (22 rush YPG), and four total touchdowns (two receiving, two rushing). The receiving yardage hasn’t been incredible -- 41.4 rec YPG (L5Games) is nothing to write home about. But as long as he’s getting touches/targets, the opportunity for a big game will be there. His 10 targets last week were a season-high and, with Christian Watson (hamstring/out) set to miss a second straight week, Reed could flirt with double-digit targets again. Reed has also run 76% of his routes out of the slot this season and the Bucs, who have allowed the 5th most FPPG to WRs, have been most vulnerable against the slot (2nd most FPPG allowed to slot WRs).

Demario Douglas, NE | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.9k | vs. KC

When searching for a value WR on this slate, I believe many will flock to the Rams’ WR Demarcus Robinson (DK: $3.6k, FD: $5.6k). I don’t hate the Robinson play -- he has found the endzone in back-to-back weeks, which is a big reason why people will chase him, but he also saw 10 targets on a season-high 86% snap% last week, which bodes well for his week 15 involvement. But if you want a cheap WR pivot (away from Robinson), Demario Douglas is worth a look. He should resume his WR1 role in the Pats offense after missing the last two games with a concussion. JuJu Smith-Schuster (ankle), DeVante Parker (knee), and Tyquan Thornton (hamstring) are all questionable to play on Sunday, so an already shorthanded Pats WR corps could be even more depleted this week. In his last three games, Douglas averaged 8.3 targets/gm and commanded a team-leading 24.0% target%. None of those games were played with new Pats starting QB Bailey Zappe at the helm, but we can predict that Douglas will be the most targeted Pats WR in what will likely be a game where New England is playing from behind. The Chiefs have also been most vulnerable against slot WRs (Douglas: 66% SlotRoute%) this season.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Dalton Kincaid, BUF | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.6k | vs. DAL

Tight end feels extra tricky this week and, among the more expensive guys, I have no strong preference for any one or two guys. We’ll put Kincaid in the spotlight here in what should be a fairly high-scoring game between the Bills and Cowboys. TE Dawson Knox made his return from the IR last week after missing the previous five games with a wrist injury. Kincaid had some breakout performances while Knox was out of the picture, but I don’t believe his return is a complete killer for Kincaid’s potential. The Bills simply ran more two TE sets last week and the 60 snaps played by Kincaid were actually a season-high. And, while the yardage was nothing incredible (21 yards on five catches), Kincaid was targeted eight times. He’ll be worth some consideration against the Cowboys, who rank 23rd in TE DVOA.

David Njoku, CLE | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6.2k | vs. CHI

We’ll probably see < 10% ownership on Njoku despite a big 8/6/91/2 target/receiving line last week. In general, he’s been one of the more consistent TEs across the last couple of months, scoring at least 11.8 DKFP in six of his last seven games. It also feels as if Joe Flacco has surprisingly revitalized this Browns passing attack. The wet and windy weather expected for this game may also emphasize the short-to-intermediate passing game, which could benefit someone like Njoku. The Bears have defended TEs well in recent weeks but, on the season, they’ve given up the 6th most FPPG to the position.

Tucker Kraft, GB | DK: $3k, FD: $4.7k | vs. TB

In the three full games since TE Luke Musgrave went on IR, Tucker Kraft has logged snap percentages of 96%, 95%, and 100% (last week). Sometimes the best ability is availability and Kraft simply isn’t leaving the field except for an occasional breather. He hasn’t been a fantasy revelation by any means, but he has combined for 12 targets, nine receptions, 116 yards, and a touchdown in these last three games. Perhaps most notably, he draws a great match-up against the Bucs who have allowed the 7th most FPPG to TEs and have given up +22% more FPPG to the position when on the road (last nine games).

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Miami Dolphins | DK: $4k, FD: $4.8k | vs. NYJ

Mid-Range D/ST: Atlanta Falcons | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.5k | @ CAR

Value D/ST: New York Giants | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.5k | @ NO

Contrarian D/ST: Dallas Cowboys | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4k | @ BUF

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Josh Allen, Dalton Kincaid, CeeDee Lamb

QB + WR/TE + Opp Running Back (Game Stack)

Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, Rachaad White

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua (or Demarcus Robinson for cheap)

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Bijan Robinson + Falcons D/ST

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams

Value Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Bailey Zappe, Demario Douglas, Ezekiel Elliott

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp Receiver

Justin Fields, DJ Moore, David Njoku

Touchdown Call 🏈

Brandon Aiyuk, SF | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.8k | @ ARI

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Ezekiel Elliott MORE than 18.5 Receiving Yards

Brandon Aiyuk MORE than 14.5 Fantasy Score

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!