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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Another pivotal late-season NFL Sunday awaits with 11 games on the main slate ticket! We’ve got quite a few entertaining matchups lined up on this slate, including nine games with single-score spreads and five games with totals of at least 47.5 points. Minimal games with weather concerns as well. Overall, this sets up as one of the most entertaining Sunday slates we’ve had in a while! Let’s jump right into the action! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report 🌦️

• BUF at CLE (1:00 ET, 41.5 O/U): Mid-20s temperatures with sustained winds near 15mph and gusts pushing 25–30mph. Slight downgrade for kickers and deeper passing, with winds expected to be more impactful early before easing later in the game.

• MIN at NYG (1:00 ET, 43.5 O/U): Temps in the 40s with winds just over 10mph and occasional gusts into the low-20s. Mild conditions overall and only minimal DFS impacts.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jared Goff, DET | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.1k | vs. PIT

Goff draws one of the strongest quarterback setups on the slate as Detroit plays a virtually must-win game at home where their playoff chances will go from 55% with a win down to 19% with a loss (per NFL.com). Goff has been markedly better at home throughout his Lions tenure – this year at home, he is completing 70.4% of his passes with a 15:3 TD:INT ratio and a league-best 112.5 passer rating. The Lions carry a slate-high 29.8 implied team total, and while Pittsburgh’s defense is respectable, it’s not a unit that consistently shuts down efficient passing games. The Steelers have allowed the 7^th -most adjusted FPPG to QBs this season and have given up +34% more FPPG to QBs when playing on the road. Detroit’s offense remains well-schemed and balanced, which keeps Goff clean and allows him to operate comfortably from the pocket. With strong home splits, clear motivation, and elite scoring expectations, Goff stands out as one of the cleaner higher-end QB options this week.

Jacoby Brissett, ARI | DK: $5.3k, FD: $7.5k | vs. ATL

Brissett continues to be one of the steadier value quarterbacks week in and week out, and it’s notable that his DraftKings salary has dropped in each of the past two weeks despite topping 20 DKFP in every one of his nine starts this season, a level of consistency that’s hard to find at this price point. The ceiling isn’t massive, but Brissett doesn’t need a spike performance to pay off, especially on DraftKings where the pricing gap between him and the upper tier remains wide. This matchup sets up well, as Atlanta has allowed 31% more fantasy points to quarterbacks when playing as favorites, and Arizona projects for a pass-leaning script as modest home underdogs. His production has also been highly concentrated among a small group of pass-catchers, making him easy to stack for tournaments, though he stands just fine as a standalone cash-game option. Brissett is clearly a stronger play on DraftKings than FanDuel, but his floor and matchup keep him in the conversation across all sites and formats.

Quinn Ewers, MIA | DK: $4k, FD: $6.3k | vs. CIN

Ewers steps in as Miami’s starter with Tua Tagovailoa getting benched, and while he’s largely an unknown at the NFL level, the situational setup is about as friendly as it gets for a QB making his first career NFL start. Cincinnati has been one of the league’s weakest pass defenses, ranking 31st in pass DVOA and allowing the third-most adjusted FPPG to quarterbacks this season. They’ve also given up just under 250 passing yards per game over their last nine contests, which lowers the bar for Ewers to return value at rock-bottom salaries. This is clearly more about price and matchup than projecting a ceiling outcome, but Mike McDaniel’s system has historically made life easier on quarterbacks with defined reads and YAC-driven production. And if Ewers has some solid success this Sunday, even in a Charmin-soft matchup, it could signal that Miami has more of a Tua Tagovailoa problem rather than a head coaching problem. Ultimately, Ewers profiles as a salary-saver who opens up the ability to stack up multiple high-end skill players in the same lineup.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.5k | vs. PIT
More attention goes toward this Lions offense in a pivotal Sunday matchup. Gibbs checks in with the highest LineStar and consensus projections among this slate’s running backs and sets up as a premier bounce-back candidate at home. He’s coming off a disappointing 9.8 DKFP outing against the Rams, but that performance stands out as an outlier relative to his recent body of work, as he topped 22 DKFP in four of his previous six games. On the season, Gibbs has piled up more than 1,500 scrimmage yards and 16 total touchdowns, and his home splits remain elite, averaging 27.1 DKFP per game in Detroit, which equates to 35.5% more FPPG than on the road. Pittsburgh has been stingy in terms of touchdowns allowed to running backs, surrendering just six total scores to the position all year, but they’ve quietly leaked yardage, allowing RBs to average 168.5 scrimmage yards per game over their last four contests. That gap between yardage and scoring points toward positive touchdown regression, and Gibbs is exactly the type of versatile, high-usage back capable of flipping that trend. With elite scoring equity and strong pass-game involvement, he profiles as one of the top spend-up options on the slate if you can make the salary work.

James Cook III, BUF | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.8k | at CLE

Cook sets up well in a game where Buffalo enters as a 10.5-point road favorite, a spread that strongly points toward a run-leaning script. Cleveland has been middle of the pack defensively on the ground, ranking 16th in Rush EPA Allowed, but recent results have been shakier after giving up 184 rushing yards to Tennessee and 142 to Chicago over the past two weeks. Cook continues to operate with strong volume and efficiency, ranking fourth in opportunities per game, fourth in total yards per game, and seventh in total touchdowns on the season. The Browns have also faced the fifth-highest opponent RunPlay% this year as they’ve routinely fallen behind early, further reinforcing Cook’s workload outlook. With secure usage, touchdown equity, and game script firmly on his side, Cook profiles as a strong option in both cash games and tournaments.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.3k | vs. MIN

Tracy has quietly settled into a reliable workload, averaging 18.4 opportunities and 94 total yards per game over his past five outings, and that includes a week 13 game where he was knocked out early with an injury, ultimately playing less than half the snaps with only 11 touches that week. He’s coming off a two-touchdown performance that highlights his scoring upside to match the consistent volume. The matchup sets up favorably, as Minnesota remains stout against the pass but more vulnerable on the ground, ranking a middling 15th in rush DVOA and allowing the 10th-most FPPG to running backs over their last four games. They’ve also surrendered 1.3 RB touchdowns per game in that span, which aligns well with Tracy’s role near the goal line. With Jaxson Dart’s designed rush attempts down significantly since returning from his concussion, Tracy appears positioned to handle most of the high-leverage carries close to the end zone. That combination gives him a reasonable floor with a clear path to another ceiling outcome if the touchdowns cooperate.

Michael Carter, ARI | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.1k | vs. ATL

Carter steps into a clear lead role with Bam Knight, Trey Benson, and James Conner all sidelined, and the usage followed immediately last week. He played on 80% of the offensive snaps, handled 18 opportunities, and turned that workload into 94 total yards, while Emari Demercado was eased back in at just an 11% snap rate. The matchup is serviceable, as Atlanta ranks 20th in Rush EPA Allowed, and it improves further when factoring in their road splits, where they’ve allowed 32% more fantasy points to running backs over their last nine games. Playing at home with little competition for touches, Carter projects for steady volume with room for more if Arizona leans on the run. He’ll be squarely on the value radar and he’s near even money to find the endzone with +110 ATTD (anytime touchdown) odds.

Kenneth Gainwell, PIT | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.8k | at DET

Gainwell continues to operate as Pittsburgh’s preferred passing-down back, and that role becomes especially valuable in a matchup where the Steelers are likely forced into a pass-leaning script. While he and Jaylen Warren are splitting overall snaps pretty evenly, Gainwell owns a clear edge on third downs and LDD (long down & distance) plays. He has commanded 65 targets on the season compared to 38 for Warren, and he’s seen at least six targets in four of the last five games. Since Week 11, Gainwell has averaged 18.0 DKFP per game while handling a 21.8% Target%, which is elite for a running back and is the second-highest target share on the team in that stretch, behind only DK Metcalf. Detroit’s fast indoor surface and this game’s scoring expectations (52.5 O/U) further support the idea of elevated passing volume for Pittsburgh. Aaron Rodgers has been getting the ball out of his hands as quickly as possible this season, which plays directly into Gainwell’s strengths as a checkdown magnet. With 16.2+ DKFP in four of his last five games and a defined role in trailing game scripts (PIT +7), Gainwell profiles as a strong value option, particularly on DraftKings due to the full PPR scoring format. He also works as a sensible bring-back option if you’re looking to game stack Lions players on the other side.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.2k | vs. PIT

We’ll lean further into this Lions offense with another primary Detroit playmaker in Amon-Ra St. Brown, who once again sits near the top of the wide receiver pool this week. He’s coming off a monster performance against the Rams, hauling in 13 of 18 targets for 164 yards and two touchdowns for 44.4 DKFP, and that outing confirmed he’s fully past the ankle issue that briefly slowed him down a few weeks back. Volume has remained elite, and excluding the Week 13 early exit, he has averaged 10.8 targets/gm for a 36.5% Target% and 48.2% AirYard% since Week 9. On the year, he has commanded a dominant 44.8% RedZone Target%, so he’s about as likely to find the endzone as any WR on this slate. And much like ARSB’s teammates, his home splits continue to stand out at 22.2 DKFP per game in Detroit (+18.1% more FPPG at home than on the road). Pittsburgh has struggled to contain opposing wideouts, allowing the eighth-most FPPG to the position while giving up 12 WR touchdowns and more than 160 receiving yards per game. With Detroit pushing for a playoff spot and carrying elite scoring expectations, St. Brown profiles as one of the safest floors and highest ceilings at the position on this slate.

Nico Collins, HOU | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.5k | vs. LV

Since Week 10, Collins trails only Puka Nacua, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Michael Wilson in fantasy points among wide receivers. He’s cleared 85 receiving yards in five of those six games while commanding a hefty 38.2% AirYard%, keeping his ceiling within reach in any given week. The matchup also checks out, as Las Vegas has been a friendly defense for opposing wideouts, allowing the seventh-most FPPG to the position and ranking 25th in WR1 DVOA. The obvious concern is game script, with Houston (-14.5) setting up as the strongest favorites on the slate. This Raiders’ offense has been utterly painful to watch most Sundays, and another anemic performance could cap Houston’s passing volume if things get out of hand early. Still, Collins’ ability to do damage quickly and rack up huge chunk gains, along with his likelihood of coming in at sub-10% ownership, make him an appealing tournament option in a spot where efficiency can outweigh raw volume.

Mike Evans, TB | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.2k | at CAR

Evans returned in Week 15 for his first full game action since Week 3 and immediately reasserted himself as the focal point of Tampa Bay’s passing attack. While he was eased back in from a snap perspective at 55%, the utilization was elite, as he finished with six catches for 132 yards while commanding a massive 37.5% Target% and 49.2% AirYard%. Evans has consistently punished Carolina throughout his career, and this matchup carries significant weight in the NFC South race. Both teams enter the week at 7–7, and with the division still up for grabs, the winner takes a major step toward the postseason, with Tampa Bay’s playoff odds jumping to 94% with a win. Evans may not see a full allotment of snaps again, but the role is clearly designed to funnel targets his way whenever he’s on the field.

Courtland Sutton, DEN | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.6k | vs. JAX

Sutton stands out as one of the steadier mid-range WR options on the slate, offering both a reliable floor and a path to a ceiling game through volume. He’s drawn double-digit targets from Bo Nix in each of the last two weeks and has responded with strong production, posting at least five catches and 60 yards in three straight games while coming off a 7/113/1 line against Green Bay. Jacksonville has surrendered 13 WR touchdowns on the season and has been prone to giving up chunk yardage, which aligns well with Sutton’s role as the clear air yard hog (45% AirYard% L3Games).

DK Metcalf, PIT | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.4k | at DET

Metcalf remains the clear WR1 in Pittsburgh’s passing attack, leading the team with 90 targets on the season – 10 more targets than all other PIT WRs combined -- and he is positioned for another high-volume opportunity in this spot. His weekly production has been volatile, but the ceiling is attainable, with multiple 20+ fantasy point performances and seven touchdowns on the year. Detroit’s depleted secondary has been completely overwhelmed of late, allowing the most FPPG to wide receivers over the last four games while giving up nearly 250 receiving YPG and 1.8 touchdowns per game to the position. Even for a boom-or-bust profile, it is difficult to ignore that type of DvP matchup. Metcalf also fits cleanly as a bring-back option in Lions-heavy builds, adding correlation upside to game stacks.

Jalen Coker, CAR | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.9k | vs. TB

Even with Tetairoa McMillan set to play through a mid-week injury scare, Carolina’s passing game continues to feature multiple contributors, and Coker has carved out a meaningful role of late. The second-year slot receiver (60% SlotRoute%) has quickly earned Bryce Young’s trust, tallying 22 catches for 284 yards and two touchdowns across eight games while steadily climbing the depth chart. His recent production has been especially encouraging, as hes combined for 8 receptions on 10 targets for 134 yards and two TDs over the last two games. This week’s matchup is very appealing, with Tampa Bay allowing the eighth-most receptions to wide receivers and the 4^th -most FPPG to slot WRs on the season. If Carolina leans into a short-area, rhythm passing attack, Coker projects to be a steady source of volume at a very workable salary.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6.3k | at TEN

With Rashee Rice ruled out, Xavier Worthy is shaping up as a popular WR value option, but this is a spot where pivoting to Kelce at similar price points makes sense, especially with his projected ownership sitting below 10%. Patrick Mahomes is done for the year, leaving Gardner Minshew under center, and that shift could naturally elevate Kelce’s role as a reliable safety valve in the passing game. Despite Kansas City being eliminated from playoff contention, Kelce’s workload could remain intact, and he heads into this game logging at least 88% of the offensive snaps in four straight games. The matchup also works in his favor, with Tennessee consistently funneling production to tight ends. Over their last four contests, the Titans have allowed 71.3 yards, 6.0 receptions, and 1.0 touchdown per game to the position, along with the fourth-most FPPG.

Darren Waller, MIA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.5k | vs. CIN

Waller continues to play a limited snap share at around 50%, but his usage is extremely concentrated when he is on the field, as evidenced by eight targets last week and seven red-zone looks on the season (in seven games played). The quarterback switch from Tua Tagovailoa to Quinn Ewers isn’t a major concern and may actually work in Waller’s favor, as young quarterbacks often lean on tight ends as safety nets. The matchup also could not be better, with Cincinnati standing as the league’s most generous defense to opposing tight ends, allowing the most receptions, yards, touchdowns, and fantasy points to the position. It’s also worth noting that Waller’s big Monday night performance (7/66/2 – 25.6 DKFP) isn’t baked into his Week 16 pricing due to the short turnaround. The combination of matchup, red-zone involvement, and likely target volume makes Waller one of the more appealing value tight ends on the slate. I particularly like the value stack combo of QB Quinn Ewers and Darren Waller on DraftKings – it is just a killer matchup and you get quite a bit of potential production and correlation for a combined $7,500.

Jeremy Ruckert, NYJ | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4.6k | at NO

As a general rule, avoiding the Jets offense at all costs is usually the correct approach, but if you’re looking to punt the tight end position in tournaments, Ruckert is at least worth mentioning. Mason Taylor is set to miss a second straight game due to a neck injury, and Ruckert stepped into a much larger role last week, playing a season-high 74% of the snaps and ranking third on the team with a 66.7% RouteParticipation%. The box score was uninspiring at just two catches for 13 yards, but the underlying usage was far more encouraging than the production. The matchup isn’t ideal on the surface, as New Orleans has allowed the 10th-fewest FPPG to tight ends this season, but they sit closer to league average in TE DVOA (15^th ) and have surrendered +37% more fantasy points to the position when favored (NO -6.5). For those willing to embrace the volatility, Ruckert is a sensible enough flier to take a shot on.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Houston Texans | DK: $4k, FD: $5k | vs. LV

Mid-Range D/ST: New Orleans Saints | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. NYJ

Value D/ST: Tennessee Titans | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3k | vs. KC

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!