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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Another pivotal Sunday arrives with an 11-game (DraftKings)/12-game (FanDuel) main slate on the board! We’re at the unique point in the regular season where we’re getting NFL action on four days out of the week -- and next week should be a ton of fun with five consecutive days of NFL games beginning on Christmas Day and lasting through to Monday Night Football! Of course, mixed in with this Sunday’s games that will carry plenty of playoff ramifications, other match-ups are fairly meaningless, outside of draft order implications. But, for DFS (and prop betting!), every game can have some meaning to some extent so let’s see what we can cook up!

Quick Note: I’ve been swamped these last six-ish weeks and I just wrapped up some early family Christmas stuff so I’m getting to work on this main slate newsletter later than I’d like. As a result, the player spotlights will be moderately concise. I should finally get back to having these main slate newsletters done earlier after the Christmas holiday comes and goes! In the meantime, apologies for the late release of this newsletter!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• CLE at CIN (1:00 ET, 46.5 O/U): Temps around the freezing mark. Light winds. Fairly prototypical late-December weather.

• DET at CLE (1:00 ET, 47.5 O/U): 30-degree temps with 10+ mph winds, which will make it feel even colder.

• LAR at NYJ (1:00 ET, 47.0 O/U): Low-20s temps with winds around 10 mph. It’ll be interesting to see how a West Coast team fares in these frigid conditions.

• PHI at WAS (1:00 ET, 45.5 O/U): 30 degrees w/ 5-10 mph winds.

• MIN at SEA (4:05 ET, 42.5 O/U): Some rain looks likely, particularly later in the game.

• NE at BUF (4:25 ET, 46.5 O/U): 20-degree temps and light winds.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | vs. CLE

Burrow hasn’t scored below 19.84 FP since week eight, he has thrown for at least three touchdowns in six straight games, and he has posted at least 28.56 FP in four of those six games. Across his six home games, he is completing 73.2% of his passes with a studly 113.0 Passer Rating. The Browns have allowed the 8th fewest FPPG to QBs this season but they’re a poor 25th in pass DVOA, so the match-up isn’t as rough as some may believe. The major question here is if the Dorian Thompson-Robinson-led Browns (+8.5 underdogs) can make this a competitive game and force the Bengals’ offense to stay aggressive.

Anthony Richardson, IND | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.4k | vs. TEN

It’s been far from an efficient season for Anthony Richardson passing the ball as he has completed a mere 47.0% of his passes across his 10 games. That said, we know he has plenty of upside at these current price points, largely thanks to his rushing prowess. In the four games since he retook the starting QB job, Richardson is averaging 46.8 YPG on the ground and 20.4 FPPG. The Titans have been a middle-of-the-road match-up for opposing QBs throughout the season, though they have allowed a lofty 71.8% completion% over their last four games, along with the 10th most rushing yards allowed to QBs this season. If Richardson can find a way to be a bit more efficient as a passer, he could end the day as one of the best values at the position.

Michael Penix Jr., ATL | $4.5k, FD: $6k | vs. NYG

The value QB spotlight is pretty obvious this week. The big NFL news/drama from this week centered around the Falcons moving on from Kirk Cousins and giving rookie Michael Penix Jr. a shot as the starter, presumably for the rest of the season. The Falcons are still in the running for a playoff berth, so this move isn’t Atlanta just about giving their rookie QB some important live game reps in otherwise meaningless games -- it’s because they believe Penix at QB gives them their best chance to win. It’s an ideal spot for Penix to make his NFL debut -- at home as nine-point favorites over a Giants team that is 29th in pass DVOA. Salaries for this slate were already released by the time the Cousins benching was announced so it’s hard to ignore Penix at these rock-bottom price points.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Baker Mayfield, TB | DK: N/A, FD: $8.1k | at DAL

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Chase Brown, CIN | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CLE

The usage for Chase Brown has been impossible to overlook for weeks and his DFS salaries are finally getting to about where they should be. In the six games since Brown took over as the main RB following the Zack Moss injury, he has played no fewer than 80% of the snaps -- and the snap rate hit a season-high 93% last week. 100+ scrimmage yards and 1+ touchdowns is starting to feel like the baseline for Brown, regardless of match-up.

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | at CHI

With David Montgomery (knee/out) potentially done for at least the regular season, everyone will be anticipating a monster game out of Gibbs this Sunday. Despite splitting the RB touches virtually right down the middle with Monty, Gibbs has still managed to check in as the overall RB4 in fantasy this season thanks to his elite explosiveness. Now, even a conservative guess would be that he’ll see at least 75% of the RB touches with Montgomery out of the picture, and presumable all of the redzone/goal-line work. He’ll also have an outstanding match-up ahead of him as the Bears have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to RBs this season and are a paltry 31st in rush DVOA. He’ll be incredibly chalky but fade Gibbs at your own risk!

James Conner, ARI | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.4k | at CAR

Conner was the RB1 in week 15 (33.8 DKFP/31.3 FDFP) and there is no reason to think he will be unable to find similar success this week. RBs have gouged the Panthers’ defense all season, leading to them allowing the most FPPG to the position while ranking dead last in rush DVOA. RBs have racked up over 160 rushing YPG against them in the last four weeks and, barring injury, I find it hard to believe that Conner won’t run all over them this Sunday while scoring at least one TD.

D’Andre Swift, CHI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.2k | vs. DET

If you want a major leverage play at RB, Swift could be your man. The aforementioned Jahmyr Gibbs is going to be the major chalk at the position, which will lead folks to assume the Bears will be trailing from the jump and just passing it a ton. However, the Bears remained pretty committed to the run against the Vikings last week despite trailing by a wide margin for much of the night. Swift still ended with 20 touches despite Chicago losing by three scores. And, as gritty as the Lions’ defense has been, the injuries are REALLY starting to add up. They currently have 21 guys on the injured reserve with 16 of those being defensive players. So there is no reason to view this as a rough match-up.

Patrick Taylor Jr., SF | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.8k | at MIA

CMC and Jordan Mason had their seasons cut short a couple of weeks back and now Isaac Guerendo (foot/hamstring) will be sidelined as well. That should mean Patrick Taylor Jr. is now “the guy” in this depleted 49ers’ backfield. The only other RB on the 49ers’ roster who has played any amount of snaps with the team this season is Ke’Shawn Vaughn, who logged just three snaps in week 14. Taylor hasn’t looked great on his limited opportunities this year, averaging just 3.6 YPC, but you simply can’t turn your nose up at a guy who is this affordable and has 20+ touch potential. Miami is 24th in rush DVOA so it’s far from a tough match-up as well.

Alexander Mattison, LV | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.6k | vs. JAX

Mattison is expected to serve as the primary RB following Sincere McCormick’s season-ending ankle injury in week 15. Mattison has ample experience as a starter and posted some serviceable numbers earlier in the season. And, of course, the Jags have been Swiss cheese against the run, allowing the 3rd most adjusted fantasy points to RBs this season. Ameer Abdullah will still see some work on passing downs but, if the game script favors the Raiders (who are two-point home favorites), then Mattison could end with around 15-20 touches.

Tyjae Spears, TEN | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.9k | at IND

Spears saw a season-high 56% snap share in Week 15, turning 10 touches into 92 yards and two touchdowns. With Tony Pollard banged up and nothing on the line for the Titans at this point, Spears could continue leading the backfield. If Pollard continues to play a more limited role, Spears provides plenty of upside facing a Colts defense ranked 18th in rush DVOA and allowing the second-most carries and sixth-most FPPG to RBs.

Craig Reynolds, DET | DK: $4k, FD: $5.4k | at CHI

Lions’ HC Dan Campbell could throw us all for a loop on Sunday by giving a nearly identical “David Montgomery role/workload” to Craig Reynolds, who has played the third-most RB snaps for Detroit this season. Perhaps it’s not the most likely outcome, but Reynolds has been with the Lions’ organization since the 2021 season and is entrusted by the coaching staff. Reynolds has also averaged a respectable 4.3 YPC this season. But, mostly, this is simply a leverage play if you’re banking on the Gibbs chalk to bust or even just moderately underperform.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Bucky Irving, TB | DK: N/A, FD: $7.8k | at DAL

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.5k | vs. CLE

Pretty obvious stud target this week, especially if you’re rolling with Burrow at QB. The Browns are 31st in WR1 DVOA and, since week 10, no other receiver in the NFL has more receiving yards, air yards, targets, or FPPG than Ja’Marr Chase.

Davante Adams, NYJ | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.4k | vs. LAR

QB Aaron Rodgers is playing like a man with nothing to lose at this point in the Jets’ abysmal season. That doesn’t mean he’s playing great, necessarily, but he is slinging it to his long-time teammate Davante Adams lately. Over the last three games, Adams has caught 23-of-35 targets (33.3% Target%) for 373 yards (2nd in NFL in that span) and four TDs. Even with some mammoth upward trajectory in recent weeks, Adams is probably set to chime in under 10% ownership and there’s nothing wrong with the match-up as the Rams check in at 23rd in pass DVOA and are a middling 17th in WR1 DVOA.

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.3k | at NYJ

Despite playing an 85% snap%, Kupp posted a bagel last week, which was his second dud performance within the last three weeks. It seems like no one is going to want to touch him, but he could come through as a low-owned stud this week. This game owns one of the highest totals of the week (47.0 O/U) and the Rams are still firmly in the hunt for a playoff berth. NFL.com gives them a 67% chance of making the postseason with a win on Sunday. Puka Nacua has separated himself as the clear WR1 on the 2024 Rams’ offense, but Kupp (68% SlotRoute%) technically gets the best match-up as the Jets have been weakest versus the slot all season. The Jets' pass defense as a whole has also allowed the 5th most FPPG to WRs L4Games.

Brian Thomas Jr., JAX | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.3k | at LV

Thomas is stuck on a bad Jags team in a small market, so his outstanding rookie season has gone fairly overlooked by the media. With three games left in the regular season, Brian Thomas Jr. is on pace for a 78/1160/10 receiving line. Only two rookie WRs in NFL history have matched 75/1100/10: Ja'Marr Chase and Odell Beckham Jr. LSU sure does know how to churn out top-flight, NFL-ready WRs, don’t they? Even with the Jags having to pivot to Mac Jones at QB, Thomas has still managed to put up some great fantasy results of late. Over his L4Games, he’s averaging 10.8 Targets/gm (30.1% Target%), 6.8 Rec/gm, 87.3 YPG, and 21.1 DKFP/17.7 FDFP per game. No reason to dislike him in this fairly juicy match-up with the Raiders.

Malik Nabers, NYG | DK: $6.1k, FD: $8.2k | at ATL

This WR section is starting to look like some sort of LSU puff piece but I promise that is not the case! It’s all about volume and opportunity for Nabers this week. He has seen double-digit targets in nine of the last 11 games, including a big 14/10/82/1 target/receiving line in week 15. It’s been a complete QB carousel for the Giants ever since they released Daniel Jones following their week 10 loss to the Panthers, but the one constant has been feeding Nabers targets. And we have to love the match-up as the Falcons have allowed 2.0 TDs/gm and THE most FPPG to WRs over their last four games.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA | DK: $6k, FD: $7.9k | vs. MIN

Since week nine, JSN is 8th among all WRs/TEs/RBs in PPR FPPG and he has commanded a strong 28.6% Target% and 38.7% AirYard% in that span. He runs almost exclusively out of the slot (85% SlotRoute%) and the Vikings have surrendered the 4th most FPPG to slot WRs on the season and THE most FPPG to WRs overall. Minnesota has been one of the most clear pass funnel defenses in the NFL and we’ve found plenty of success in attacking them with opposing WRs all year.

Jalen Coker, CAR | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.2k | vs. ARI

It does feel a little point chase-y after Coker returned from a three-game absence last week to supply four catches for 110 yards and a TD on six targets. But, for what it’s worth, he should retain a primary role for Carolina and led all Panthers WRs last week with an 87% snap%. Xavier Legette is out with a hip injury while David Moore is questionable due to a concussion. Coker owns a “questionable” designation of his own but, per Adam Schefter, is expected to play on Sunday. Due to his reliance on big plays over volume, Coker is going to be a boom-or-bust option, but you could do far worse than him out of this general price range.

Malik Washington, MIA | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.7k | vs. SF

Sixth-round rookie Malik Washington shined last week, running routes on 72.1% of Tua Tagovailoa’s dropbacks and catching five of six targets for a team-high 56 yards on a season-high 59% snap%. With Jaylen Waddle (knee/doubtful) likely out and the Dolphins having parted ways with veteran WR Odell Beckham Jr., Washington projects for plenty of snaps and volume on Sunday at a low price point.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Mike Evans, TB | DK: N/A, FD: $8.8k | at DAL

Jalen McMillan, TB | DK: N/A, FD: $5.8k | at DAL

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Trey McBride, ARI | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.5k | at CAR

McBride remains the top receiving weapon for the Cardinals, catching nine of 10 targets for 87 yards last week and averaging 10 catches on 12.8 targets for 96.5 yards over his last four games. McBride has yet to reel in a (receiving) touchdown this season but his (receiving) TD drought may come to an end as he faces a Panthers defense that has allowed an NFL-high 10 touchdowns to TEs this season. They’re also ranked 30th in pass DVOA and TE DVOA while giving up the 10th-most YPG to the position. McBride, who has averaged 20.4 DKFP/15.4 FDFP L4Games, hasn’t exactly NEEDED the TD luck to bounce his way in order to return value in the realm of DFS, but the odds are pretty strong that he’ll finally be able to combine the big receptions/yardage numbers with a tuddy on Sunday.

George Kittle, SF | DK: $6k, FD: $7.6k | at MIA

I’d expect much of the TE ownership on this slate to head toward either the aforementioned Trey McBride or the soon-to-be-mentioned Brenton Strange. That could lead to Kittle being a sub-10% owned upside/leverage play to keep in the mix when building your player pool. With San Fran being down to essentially their 5th string RB, they may just roll with a very pass-heavy approach. Deebo Samuel has experienced some major regression this season so much of the passing work could go through George Kittle and WR Jauan Jennings. Kittle has had plenty of success this season and leads all NFL TEs in fantasy points per game. Meanwhile, Miami is middle-of-the-road, at best, in every key pass defense metric and they’re a subpar 24th in TE DVOA. It shouldn’t surprise anyone if Kittle goes for 100+ yards and a TD in this game.

Brenton Strange, JAX | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.2k | at LV

Strange thrived without Evan Engram available last week, running routes on 85.4% of Mac Jones’ dropbacks and catching 11 of 12 targets for 72 yards with a 25% Target%. With Engram, Christian Kirk, and Gabe Davis all done for the season, Strange should remain a key piece of the offense. He probably won’t surprise defenses as much moving forward, but he still brings quality upside against a Raiders defense that struggles against tight ends (26th in DVOA, 5th-most YPG allowed).

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Buffalo Bills | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5k | vs. NE

Mid-Range D/ST: Cincinnati Bengals | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. CLE

Value D/ST: Las Vegas Raiders | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. JAX

Contrarian D/ST: Indianapolis Colts | DK: $3k, FD: $4.8k | vs. TEN

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Running Back (Game Stack)

Caleb Williams, DJ Moore, Jahmyr Gibbs

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp

QB + WR/TE + Opp RB (FanDuel Main Slate Only SNF Game Stack)

Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Rico Dowdle

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

James Cook + Bills D/ST

Full Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Kyler Murray, Trey McBride, James Conner

Full Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Chase Brown

Value Team Stack | Cheap QB/WR/RB

Anthony Richardson, Josh Downs, Jonathan Taylor

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR/TE + Opp WR (From a low O/U game)

Michael Penix Jr., Drake London, Malik Nabers

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!