Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

Top Pick’Em Offers 12/29/24 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

• Sleeper DFS - Deposit Match up to $100

• Underdog DFS - Up to $1,000 in Bonus Cash 

• Chalkboard DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 

• Parlay Play - Free $5 Entry

^{Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.}

^.

LineStar DFS Picks & Prop Shows

w/ Tyler Wiemann & Shannon Sommerville.

Stay up-to-date with all of the latest DFS and prop betting content by subscribing to the LineStar YouTube channel!

Main Slate Rundown 📝

The penultimate 17th week of the NFL regular season is upon us! With three games getting flexed to Saturday, we’ll be tasked with tackling the smallest main slate of the year -- eight games on DraftKings and nine games on FanDuel. Several game forecasts also feature some rainy/windy weather and five of Sunday’s slates are pinned with totals under 40 points. So expect a fairly sloppy Sunday of football but we’ll see if we can find the right pieces to the puzzle nonetheless! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• TEN at JAX (1:00 ET, 39.5 O/U): While it may not rain the entire game, some precipitation is expected here and it may be fairly heavy at times. Winds should hover around 10 mph but gusts could occasionally reach 25+ mph.

• NYJ at BUF (1:00 ET, 45.5 O/U): More rain is expected here, though perhaps not until the second half. 15+ mph sustained winds with stronger gusts.

• IND at NYJ (1:00 ET, 40.0 O/U): Light rain/sprinkles are possible. Nothing too extreme.

• CAR at TB (1:00 ET, 47.5 O/U): Scattered showers with 15-20 mph winds.

• DAL at PHI (1:00 ET, 38.0 O/U): Should stay dry here but winds could be fairly high -- 10-15 mph sustained with 20-30 mph gusts.

• MIA at CLE (4:05 ET, 37.5 O/U): Light, intermittent rain is possible. 15-20 mph winds with stronger gusts.

• ATL at WAS (8:20 ET, 46.5 O/U): Rain is very likely throughout the game. 15+ mph winds with gusts around 30 mph.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Baker Mayfield, TB | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CAR

With injuries peaking at this point in the season, there are a slew of truly terrible NFL QBs on this slate. By my count, there are a total of 11 QBs starting on Sunday who were not their team’s week one starter -- so this may be a slate where we prioritize a higher-quality option. We may not have considered Baker Mayfield to be a “higher quality” QB in past seasons, but he is having a career year and heads into week 17 as the QB5 in fantasy. Weather perhaps isn’t ideal in this game, but that can be said about most of the outdoor match-ups on this slate. We should still have faith in Mayfield, facing a Panthers’ defense that is 30th in pass DVOA, allows the 3rd most adjusted FPPG to QBs, and has given up 24.8 FPPG to QBs on the road this season. The Bucs are also tied alongside the Bills with a slate-leading 27.8 implied team total.

Sam Darnold, MIN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.7k | vs. GB

Remember when the Vikings signed Darnold to a one-year, $10 million deal after losing Kirk Cousins to the Falcons and having their No. 10 overall rookie QB, JJ McCarthy, go down with a season-ending knee injury in the preseason and everyone just wrote Minnesota off for the season? Well, they are now 13-2 and in contention for the number one seed in the NFC playoffs, and that’s in large part due to how well Darnold has performed all season. He has gone from battling for backup QB jobs to ranking 6th in the NFL in yards, 5th in passing touchdowns, 4th in red zone attempts, and 8th in FPPG. Needless to say, whether it’s the Vikings or someone else, there is an NFL team out there that is going to pay Darnold a hefty contract when he hits free agency after this season. While the Packers rank highly in pass DVOA (7th), Darnold has already proven he can produce against them, throwing for 275 yards and three touchdowns in their last meeting back in week four. Playing at home further boosts his outlook in this tough but manageable spot and the Packers have allowed +47% more FPPG to QBs when they’ve played on the road (L9Games). With so many poor weather games on this slate, it’s probably not a bad idea to get exposure to this indoor match-up that boasts a slate-high 48.5 over/under and a narrow 1.5-point spread.

Joe Flacco, IND | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6k | at NYG

With Anthony Richardson ruled out with back and foot injuries, Joe Flacco will be one of the many reserve QBs earning a start this Sunday. We’ve already seen Flacco put up some decent fantasy numbers across four previous starts this season, highlighted by a 359-yard, three-touchdown showing against the Jags in week five. So we know he can still provide some upside even in his age 39 season -- certainly more than most of the ‘scrubby’ QBs under center this week. The Colts still have a glimmer of hope for the postseason, so motivation shouldn’t be in question, and it’s a beatable match-up versus the Giants who check in at 29th in pass DVOA.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Jayden Daniels, WAS | DK: N/A, FD: $8.5k | vs. ATL

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Saquon Barkley, PHI | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.6k | vs. DAL

Barkley is 268 yards shy of breaking Eric Dickerson’s all-time NFL single-season rushing yards record (2,105 yards) and, after averaging 122.5 rush YPG this season, he is on pace for 2,083 yards. With Jalen Hurts out with a concussion and the Eagles in contention for the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC playoffs, it’s far from a stretch to assume that we’ll see a ton of Barkley touches this Sunday and, presumably, he would receive all of the goal line work -- think of the sort of fantasy scores Barkley would have put up if some, or most, of Hurts’ 14 rushing TDs went in Saquon’s direction this season! Dallas’ run defense has shored up in recent weeks, and they held Barkley in check for just 66 yards on 14 carries back in week nine, but they still rank 29th in rush DVOA and, even if the Cowboys load the box on every play, Barkley is capable of dominating any match-up.

Jonathan Taylor, IND | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.4k | at NYG

Unless you were among the folks who caught Taylor at ~5% ownership last week, we’ve probably missed the train on his best game of the season following a 218-yard, three-touchdown showing against the Titans. But he will have another strong match-up in front of him against the Giants, who have allowed the highest explosive run rate in the NFL along with the second-most rushing yards. I do wonder if Taylor’s ownership will get a little too inflated following that massive week 16 performance -- he was only the RB20 in FPPG before that breakout game. But this recommendation is more about Taylor’s match-up and opportunity versus what he did a week ago.

Bucky Irving, TB | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8k | vs. CAR

Like many talented RBs who have drawn the Carolina match-up throughout this season, Irving dominated the Panthers earlier this month with 185 scrimmage yards and a touchdown on 28 touches. He’s still splitting snaps and workload with Rachaad White so the 28 touches are not likely to repeat, but he has logged at least 16 touches in his last five healthy games. He’s simply a great play against Carolina’s league-worst run defense that has given up nearly 500 more rushing yards and a higher success rate allowed than any other team. Despite being in a split backfield, the talented rookie is now up to 17th in rushing and 15th in receiving yards among NFL RBs.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.5k | vs. IND

Tyrone Tracy Jr. continues to stand out despite playing on a struggling Giants offense, ranking 18th in yards per touch and 13th in routes run (among RBs) with 20 red zone touches on the year. His explosive run rate exceeds 10%, and he faces an Indy defense allowing the seventh-highest rate of explosive runs. Tracy has also shown excellent elusiveness with a 22.2% avoided tackle rate and the Colts have allowed the 10th-highest avoided tackle rate this season. Tracy should easily fall under 10% ownership on this slate so he makes for an intriguing leverage option on this slate.

Tyjae Spears, TEN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.8k | at JAX

Spears finished as a top-10 running back for the second straight week in Week 16, playing a season-high 61% of snaps with 14 touches, 66 yards, and two touchdowns. With Tony Pollard (illness/out) sidelined for the first time this season, Spears should see plenty enough volume to justify his modest DFS salaries against a Jaguars defense allowing the second-most FPPG to RBs and ranking 23rd in rush DVOA. Jacksonville also struggles against receiving backs, allowing a league-high 45.3 receiving yards per game to RBs, and Spears has profiled as an excellent pass catcher out of the backfield in his career.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Bijan Robinson, ATL | DK: N/A, FD: $8.9k | at WAS

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Mike Evans, TB | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.6k | vs. CAR

Jalen McMillan, TB | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.9k | vs. CAR

We’re liking Baker Mayfield on this slate, and the Bucs’ offense in general, so naturally we should keep the key Tampa Bay receivers in the mix. Over the last three games, Mike Evans and Jalen McMillan have comfortably led the team in targets, combining for a 45.4% Target%. With TE Cade Otton and WR Sterling Sheppard both out, there really are no other proven Bucs’ WRs/TEs that should challenge these two guys from seeing the majority of Mayfield targets again this week.

Brian Thomas Jr., JAX | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.5k | vs. TEN

When you’re a rookie WR in the NFL and you can make Mac Jones look good, you’re doing something right! Brian Thomas Jr.’s stellar rookie campaign is overshadowed by other impressive rookie showings by the likes of Jayden Daniels, Brock Bowers, Bo Nix, etc., and it doesn’t help to be stuck on a 3-12 Jags team. But those of us who are adamant NFL DFS players have fully taken notice. Thomas is on pace for a 1,233-yard season and he has really stepped up lately. Over the last four games, he has seen 10, 12, 14, and 13 targets while averaging 7.8 Receptions/gm, 99.5 YPG, and he has scored four TDs. The Titans haven’t been a particularly friendly match-up for WRs this season but I’m not sure we’re worried about match-ups with Thomas at this point, and he did reel in eight catches for 86 yards against them just three weeks ago.

Garrett Wilson, NYJ | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.9k | at BUF

I’ll probably like this play more if Davante Adams (hip/questionable) is either out or limited as it sure would be nice if Wilson was the unquestioned WR1 in this offense again. But whether or not Adams suits up, Wilson is an appealing option out of the $6k range. The mood in the locker room for the 4-11 Jets is probably pretty apathetic at this point, but QB Aaron Rodgers is still slinging it a ton (37.5 pass attempts/gm L4Games) and that likely won’t change this week as they step in as 10-point road underdogs. WRs have also flourished against the Bills recently -- Buffalo has allowed nearly 200 YPG, 14.8 Receptions/gm, 1.5 TDs/gm, and THE most FPPG to WRs L4Games.

Jayden Reed, GB | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.7k | at MIN

Reed has been a frustrating guy to ‘get right’ this season but we’ve been targeting this Vikings secondary throughout the season, particularly in the slot, and it has worked more times than not. Reed has run 76% of his routes out of the slot and the Vikings have surrendered the 2nd most FPPG to slot WRs on the year. I don’t find it to be a major coincidence that Reed had one of his best games of the season against the Vikings back in week four when he went for seven receptions, 139 yards, and a TD. And, as mentioned, this is quite easily the most appealing DFS environment on a slate that is littered with low totals and/or potential blowouts.

Adam Thielen, CAR | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.2k | at TB

We’ll go from one slot man to another -- Adam Thielen (76% SlotRoute%) lands in a quality spot versus a Bucs’ secondary allowing the 4th most FPPG to slot receivers. Over his L4Games, Thielen has garnered 8.5 Targets/gm (27.2% Target%), 6.8 Receptions/gm, 73.8 YPG, and has reeled in a pair of TDs. He should continue to bring a high floor to DFS lineups while possessing plenty of 20+ FP upside.

Calvin Ridley, TEN | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.3k | at JAX

Ridley broke a three-game stretch of under 60 yards receiving in Week 16, catching three of five targets for 78 yards and a touchdown with Mason Rudolph under center. While the target volume was not impressive, Ridley led the Titans with a 49.3% air yard share thanks to a deep 21.2-yard aDOT. With Rudolph starting again, Ridley is in a strong position against his former team. The Jaguars rank last in pass DVOA and allow the sixth-most receiving yards per game (76.5) to WR1s. While he is a bit dependent on big plays, there are plenty of factors working in Ridley’s favor to be considered at these modest price points.

Josh Downs, IND | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.1k | at NYG

In the four games that Joe Flacco has started this season (weeks 5, 6, 9, 10), Josh Downs averaged 10.0 Targets/gm (28.0 Target%), 7.3 Receptions/gm, 66.8 YPG, and 15.4 PPR FPPG. I believe we can feel pretty good about his outlook this week, particularly at his depressed DFS salaries.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Terry McLaurin, WAS | DK: N/A, FD: $7.9k | vs. ATL

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

TJ Hockenson, MIN | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.7k | vs. GB

Outside of a couple of strong showings against the Jags and Bears, Hockenson hasn’t put up great receiving numbers since returning from his knee injury in week nine. However, he did reach a season-high 70% snap% last week and could thrive in this match-up. The Packers’ defense has allowed the fewest FPPG to WRs this season but has allowed the 10th most FPPG to TEs, including the 7th most YPG. It’s a fairly lackluster slate for tight ends and I wouldn’t blame anyone if they just elected to pay up for Brock Bowers (DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.6k) and call it a day. But Hockenson is in a quality spot and has as much upside as any other TE on the slate (not named “Brock Bowers”).

Jake Ferguson, DAL | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5.5k | at PHI

The Cowboys announced on Thursday that they would be shutting down star WR CeeDee Lamb (shoulder) for the final two games of the season. Meanwhile, a couple of other Cowboys’ WRs currently own “questionable” designations (J. Tolbert & J. Brooks). Regardless of those two players’ availability, there are additional targets to go around and I suspect Jake Ferguson should be a primary beneficiary. Ferguson missed a couple of games in weeks 12 and 13 and hasn’t had much success since Cooper Rush took over at QB for the injured Dak Prescott. That said, Ferguson did see nine targets last week and Dallas (+7.5) should be playing from behind for much/all of this game.

Payne Durham, TB | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. CAR

TE Cade Otton (knee/out) will miss a second consecutive game. In his first game being sidelined last week, Payne Durham stepped in as the unquestioned interim TE1 for Tampa Bay, catching 5-of-7 targets for 29 yards. The yardage total may not have been impressive but ya can’t turn your nose up at a cheap tight end who just saw seven targets and, perhaps more importantly, played a whopping 93% of the snaps in week 16. The Panthers check in at 31st in TE DVOA and have allowed the 5th most FPPG to the position, so it’s a great spot for Durham to return value.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Indianapolis Colts | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.9k | at NYG

Value D/ST: Cleveland Browns | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. MIA

DraftKings Value D/ST: Philadelphia Eagles | DK: $3.1k, FD: $5k | vs. DAL

Contrarian D/ST: Miami Dolphins | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.7k | at CLE

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Running Back (Game Stack)

Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Josh Jacobs

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, Garrett Wilson

QB + WR/TE + Opp RB (FanDuel Main Slate Only SNF Game Stack)

Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Bijan Robinson

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Jalen McMillan

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Saquon Barkley + Eagles D/ST

Full Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Bucky Irving

Value Team Stack | Cheap QB/WR/RB

Mason Rudolph, Calvin Ridley, Tyjae Spears

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR/TE + Opp WR (From a low O/U game)

Joe Flacco, Josh Downs, Malik Nabers

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!