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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Welcome back for one final regular season NFL Sunday! The week 18 main slate will be loaded up with 13 games for us to dig into. The big thing to keep in mind for this slate is to target teams that have something worth playing for. Many teams are already eyeing the off-season and have no reason to risk playing their key starters much, if at all, this Sunday — or they’re locked into their playoff seed. There are no “win and in (the playoffs)” scenarios on this main slate, but there are plenty of teams that could simply improve their playoff seeding and/or game location with a week 18 victory. Some teams do not necessarily control their own destiny but will still need to snag a win to keep improved seeding hopes afloat. The teams that have nothing at stake this week shouldn’t be completely ignored, and we can likely find some value on some of those teams. But, for the most part, we will lean toward relying on players from teams that will be fully motivated this Sunday.

Before we get into the recommended DFS plays, let’s get a rundown on what each team has at stake on this slate, going on a game-by-game basis:

🎯 = Indicates a team with something to play for AKA, a team that we may want to target when looking for preferred DFS plays this week.

NO at ATL (-3.5) | 43.5 O/U

NO: Eliminated from playoff contention. If Saints win, the Bucs win the NFC South and grab the final NFC playoff spot.

ATL: Eliminated from playoff contention. If Falcons win, the Panthers win the NFC South and grab the final NFC playoff spot.

CLE at CIN (-7.5) | 44.5 O/U

CLE: Eliminated from playoff contention. Myles Garrett is one sack away from breaking the NFL’s single-season sack record.

CIN: Eliminated from playoff contention.

TEN at JAX (-13.5) | 47.5 O/U

TEN: Eliminated from playoff contention.

🎯 JAX: The Jaguars can clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with a win, along with losses by Denver and New England. They can win the AFC South with a win/tie or a Texans loss/tie.

GB at MIN (-10) | 37.5 O/U

GB: The Packers are locked into the No. 7 seed and will be resting at least some starters.

MIN: Eliminated from playoff contention.

IND at HOU (-10.5) | 38.5 O/U

IND: Eliminated from playoff contention.

🎯 HOU: The Texans can clinch the AFC South with a win and a Jaguars loss.

DAL (-3.5) at NYG | 49.5 O/U

DAL: Eliminated from playoff contention.

NYG: Eliminated from playoff contention.

LAC at DEN (-13.5) | 37.5 O/U

LAC: The Chargers can be anywhere between the No. 5 and No. 7 seed in the AFC playoffs but will be resting key starters this week.

🎯 DEN: The Broncos can clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with a win or losses by the Patriots and Jaguars.

ARI at LAR (-9.5) | 46.5 O/U

ARI: Eliminated from playoff contention.

🎯 LAR: The Rams can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win and a Seahawks win. The Rams would clinch the No. 6 seed with a loss or a 49ers win. Note: The Rams could be locked into the No. 6 seed by the time they play, pending the results from the SEA/SF Saturday night game, however starters are expected to play regardless.

DET at CHI (-3) | 50.5 O/U

DET: Eliminated from playoff contention.

🎯 CHI: The Bears can clinch the No. 2 seed with a win or an Eagles loss. Chicago would clinch the No. 3 seed with a loss and an Eagles win.

MIA at NE (-11.5) | 45.5 O/U

MIA: Eliminated from playoff contention.

🎯 NE: The Patriots can clinch the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage with a win and a Broncos loss.

NYJ at BUF (-7.5) | 37.5 O/U

NYJ: Eliminated from playoff contention.

🎯 (Maybe) BUF: The Bills can clinch the No. 5 seed with a win and losses by the Texans and Chargers -- or a win, plus Chargers and Jaguars losses. Buffalo would clinch the No. 6 seed with a win, plus a Chargers win and a Texans loss -- or a win, plus a Chargers loss and wins by the Texans and Jags. The Bills could also clinch the No. 6 seed with a win, plus Chargers and Texans wins, a Jags loss and then five wins from either Cowboys, Rams, Dolphins, Vikings, Eagles, Steelers, Seahawks or Bucs. With only seeding implications in play, the Bills are a candidate to rest or limit their key starters.

WAS at PHI (-4.5) | 38.5 O/U

WAS: Eliminated from playoff contention.

PHI: The Eagles can clinch the No. 2 seed with a win and a Bears loss. The Eagles would clinch the No. 3 seed with a loss or Bears win. Even with seeding motivations, they are expected to rest key starters.

KC (-5.5) at LV | 36.5 O/U

KC: Eliminated from playoff contention.

LV: Eliminated from playoff contention.

So, this gives us six teams with clear motivations whose key starters are expected to play their normal reps, with the Bills being an “iffy” seventh potentially motivated team. Again, we won’t completely ignore the teams with nothing to play for, but a good chunk of our preferred DFS plays will come from those teams marked with a "🎯" above. Best of luck and tread carefully on this slate! Let’s dive into some plays!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report 🌦️

• CLE at CIN (1:00 ET, 44.5 O/U): Temperatures just above freezing, but otherwise clean conditions with light winds and no precipitation. No meaningful DFS impact.

• DAL at NYG (1:00 ET, 49.5 O/U): Around-freezing temperatures with light winds and no precipitation. Weather should not be a factor.

• MIA at NE (4:25 ET, 45.5 O/U): Cold spot with temperatures in the mid-20s, but winds remain manageable and no precipitation is expected. Minor cold-related downgrade at most.

• DET at CHI (4:25 ET, 50.5 O/U): Temperatures near freezing with light winds and no precipitation. Weather unlikely to influence gameplay.

• NYJ at BUF (4:25 ET, 37.5 O/U): Mid-20s temperatures with light winds. A few snow flurries or a brief snow shower are possible, but accumulation is not expected and impacts should remain minimal.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Drake Maye, NE | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.6k | vs. MIA

Maye closes out an excellent sophomore campaign in a spot that still carries real stakes for New England, as a win plus a Broncos loss would secure the No. 1 seed, while a win alone keeps them locked into the No. 2 seed. There’s little reason to expect him on a pitch count here, and his individual incentives matter as well with Maye sitting atop the MVP race. From a performance standpoint, the efficiency has been elite, as he leads the league in completion rate, adjusted YPA, and QBR, while also adding modest rushing production to his fantasy profile. The matchup lines up favorably against a Dolphins defense that’s limping to the finish line and has allowed the 10th-most FPPG to opposing QBs. With New England carrying one of the highest implied totals on the slate and Maye coming off a 32.4 DKFP outing in limited snaps last week, he offers both ceiling and leverage at a salary that should naturally suppress ownership.

Trevor Lawrence, JAX | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8.2k | vs. TEN

Lawrence closes the regular season in a spot where Jacksonville still has plenty to play for, as a win clinches the AFC South and locks in a home playoff game, with higher seeding still technically on the table. He’s been one of the hottest quarterbacks in football down the stretch, averaging north of 30 fantasy points over his last three games and clearing 21 DKFP in five of his past six. The matchup is ideal, with Tennessee ranking near the bottom of the league in pass defense efficiency and allowing the second-most FPPG to QBs over their last four. Jacksonville also carries the highest implied team total on the slate (30.5 points), which gives Lawrence a strong floor even if this game starts to tilt toward blowout territory.

Jaxson Dart, NYG | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.1k | vs. DAL

Dart bounced back in a big way last week, posting 25.1 DKFP against the Raiders and flashing the rushing upside that drives his fantasy value. After nearly eliminating his designed runs the week prior, the Giants turned him loose again, as he posted a 12% designed rush rate and scored twice on the ground, giving him nine rushing touchdowns in 11 starts this season. New York may be eliminated, but they’ve treated Dart like their long-term answer for months now, and there’s no indication that changes in Week 18. The matchup is as friendly as it gets, with Dallas allowing the most FPPG to opposing QBs this season and this game carrying one of the highest totals on the slate. If Dart is allowed to use his legs again, he brings both a stable floor and tournament-winning upside at a mid-range price point.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Bijan Robinson, ATL | DK: $8.7k, FD: $9.6k | vs. NO

Robinson will once again step in as one of the premier spend-up options on the slate, especially with plenty of value options available due to some teams resting starters. He’s riding a massive three-game stretch, posting 42.9, 29.8, and 30.5 DKFP, and now sits second among RBs in FPPG on the season. While Tyler Allgeier continues to siphon some goal-line carries, Robinson has more than offset that with elite pass-game usage, as his Target% has settled at 31.9% over the past three weeks, totaling 30 targets in that span. That receiving role gives him both floor and ceiling regardless of game script, and his explosiveness remains unmatched, highlighted by a 93-yard run last week and a 5.3 YPC on the season. The Falcons have nothing to play for, aside for pride (though, the Panthers will certainly be rooting for them on Sunday). But there has not been news of Robinson playing under any restrictions this week, so with Atlanta favored at home, he checks every box as a high-end RB option to keep on the DFS radar.

Chase Brown, CIN | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.2k | vs. CLE

Brown has been one of the most reliable RBs in fantasy down the stretch, consistently pairing a strong floor with real ceiling outcomes since taking over this backfield. He’s coming off his best rushing effort in over a month, piling up 100+ yards against Arizona while adding two touchdowns and continued pass-game involvement. The matchup is tougher on paper, but Cleveland’s run defense has fallen off late, allowing seven RB touchdowns (1.75 TDs/gm) and the sixth-most FPPG to the position over their last four games. Cincinnati (-7.5) enters as a solid home favorite, a game script that has historically aligned well with Brown’s workload and scoring upside. With his usage locked in and ownership likely to lag behind other top-end RBs, Brown shapes up as a strong option with legitimate slate-breaking potential.

Ashton Jeanty, LV | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.4k | vs. KC

The Raiders may be circling the drain as an organization, but that hasn’t stopped them from feeding Jeanty like a true workhorse. He logged an 81% snap rate and handled 89% of the team’s designed rushes last week, and since Week 12 he’s commanded an 88.4% rushing share, one of the highest marks in the league. Even in a negative game environment as a home underdog, that type of locked-in volume is hard to ignore, especially with his pass-game role still intact (4+ targets in 9 of L12Games). Kansas City’s Patrick Mahomes-less offense isn’t built to blow teams out right now, which helps keep Jeanty involved throughout the game rather than game-scripted off the field. With elite usage, strong floor traits, and a salary that doesn’t fully reflect his role, Jeanty remains a strong contrarian option despite the ugliness surrounding the Raiders as a whole.

Jordan Mason, MIN | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.5k | vs. GB

With Aaron Jones already ruled out, Mason is set to step into a featured role as Minnesota’s primary early-down runner. He’s shown throughout his career that he can capitalize on volume and posted a 16/116/2 line earlier this season when Jones was sidelined. The matchup and game script both set up favorably, as the Vikings (-10) are sizable home favorites against a Packers team expected to rest many key starters. Mason’s lack of pass-game involvement caps the floor slightly, but the rushing volume and TD equity make him a strong tournament value at this price.

Jaylen Wright, MIA | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.2k | at NE

With De’Von Achane listed as doubtful, Wright sets up as one of the more appealing salary-saving RB options on the slate. When Achane missed time earlier in the season, Wright clearly outpaced Ollie Gordon, handling 24 carries and turning that workload into 107 yards and a touchdown in Week 14 – a game which Achane exited early. He’s continued to flash efficiency since then, averaging 4.6 YPC on the season and ripping off chunk gains on limited touches. Game script isn’t ideal with Miami sitting as an 11.5-point underdog, but Wright’s price more than accounts for that risk. If he steps into the lead role again, the projected volume makes him difficult to ignore in both cash builds and tournaments.

Jaydon Blue, DAL | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.5k | at NYG

Blue is firmly on the value radar this week with Dallas already ruling out Javonte Williams and Malik Davis, while Phil Mafah remains questionable, leaving Blue with minimal competition for touches. We haven’t seen much from him this season and the efficiency hasn’t been pretty (3.0 YPC on 22 carries), but this is very much a volume-over-talent setup. The matchup does a lot of the heavy lifting, as the Giants rank dead last in rush DVOA and have allowed the fifth-most FPPG to RBs. As long as Blue handles the bulk of the early-down work, he won’t need to be special to return value at this salary. He makes the most sense as a cash-game salary saver, with modest upside tied directly to workload and matchup.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Puka Nacua, LAR | DK: $9k, FD: $9.9k | vs. ARI

Even if the Rams end up locked into the No. 6 seed pending Saturday night’s SEA/SF result, there’s a strong case that this is more about momentum than seeding for Los Angeles. They’ve dropped two straight games and three of their last five, and Sean McVay appears content letting his starters play normal reps to sharpen things up ahead of the postseason – even if this Week 18 is largely meaningless for the Rams. As long as that narrative holds, Nacua stands out as the top spend-up WR on the slate. He’s been dominant over the last month, posting DKFP totals of 38.7, 30.9, and 49.5 from Weeks 14–16, and even last week’s “down” game still came with 10 targets. Over that stretch, he’s commanded a massive 32.7% Target%, largely with Davante Adams sidelined -- Adams is listed as questionable this week but is reportedly unlikely to suit up. Add in an elite matchup against an Arizona defense he just torched for 167 yards and two touchdowns four weeks ago, and Nacua sets up as the clear top ceiling option at the position.

Nico Collins, HOU | DK: $7k, FD: $8.4k | vs. IND

Collins lands in an intriguing spot in a game Houston actually has incentive to play straight, and the matchup lines up well if the Texans keep their foot on the gas. Indianapolis has struggled badly against WRs down the stretch, allowing the second-most FPPG and nearly 200 YPG and 15 receptions/gm to WRs over their last four games, while also giving up +29% more fantasy points to WRs on the road. Collins has consistently produced against this defense, averaging 26.6 FPPG vs. IND over the past two seasons, and he remains the clear alpha WR1 when Houston leans into the pass.

Michael Wilson, ARI | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.3k | at LAR

With Marvin Harrison Jr. finishing the year on IR, Wilson will once again step into a true WR1 role, and the production has followed whenever Harrison has been out. In four games without him on the field this season, Wilson has posted 36.5, 24.8, 40.2, and 16.4 DKFP, with the lone “down” game coming against Houston’s elite pass defense. The volume has been massive in those spots, and we already saw him torch the Rams in this exact matchup back in Week 15, piling up 11 catches, 142 yards, and two touchdowns on 15 targets. Los Angeles is a much more attackable secondary than Houston – the Rams have allowed THE most FPPG to WRs over their last four games -- and Arizona has shown no hesitation in force-feeding Wilson when he’s their top option. Given the combination of proven ceiling, condensed usage, and familiarity with the matchup, Wilson remains one of the more explosive WR options on the Week 18 slate.

Courtland Sutton, DEN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.0k | vs. LAC

Denver still has plenty to play for, as a Week 18 win would lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC and keep home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. That motivation pairs nicely with a soft matchup. The Chargers have been tough versus WRs for most of the season, but they have struggled lately, allowing the sixth-most FPPG to the position over their last four games; and now the Chargers are expected to sit several key starters on both sides of the ball, including Justin Herbert on offense and Khalil Mack and Derwin James on defense. With Denver sitting as 13.5-point home favorites, the Broncos should be able to move the ball consistently. Sutton has clearly reasserted himself as the team’s WR1 down the stretch, posting a 28.2% Target%, 48.2% AirYard%, and 10+ targets in each of his last four games. He’s finished as a top-10 WR twice in the past three weeks, giving him legitimate upside at a mid-range salary in a spot where Denver has every incentive to stay aggressive.

Jakobi Meyers, JAX | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. TEN

Meyers has slid cleanly into Jacksonville’s WR1 role since being traded over from the Raiders, carrying a steady 26.3% target share since Week 11 while averaging 13.0 PPR FPPG. The box-score results have dipped slightly over the past couple weeks, but the underlying usage has not -- he still commanded a 24.3% Target% last week and simply ran into a low-efficiency outing. This sets up as a strong bounce-back spot against a Titans defense that has struggled all season against the pass. Jacksonville enters Week 18 with the slate’s highest implied team total (30.5) and real motivation, as a win secures the AFC South and keeps slim No. 1 seed hopes alive. Meyers may not bring elite ceiling outcomes, but his role, price, and matchup make him a strong value option and a natural stacking partner with Trevor Lawrence, while still holding standalone appeal in balanced builds.

Darius Slayton, NYG | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.4k | vs. DAL

The Giants’ receiver room is extremely thin heading into Week 18 – Malik Nabers has missed the majority of the season and now Wan’Dale Robinson and Theo Johnson have also been ruled out for the season finale, while Jalin Hyatt remains questionable. That leaves Slayton in line for a much larger role than usual, and he’s already been a near every-down player, playing around 90% of snaps in nearly every game he’s been active in this season. While his 11.5% Target% isn’t eye-popping, Slayton’s 14.9-yard aDOT highlights his downfield role. Now that the target volume is almost certainly going to tick up considerably, that opens up plenty of upside given his deep threat profile. The matchup couldn’t be much better, as Dallas has allowed the most FPPG to WRs on the season. New York’s passing attack had plenty of success in this matchup earlier in the year, and Slayton is one of the few remaining healthy options capable of stretching the field. At these salaries, he offers affordable access to volume and big-play upside.

Darius Cooper, PHI | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.7k | vs. WAS

Cooper is shaping up as a popular salary-saver on the slate, and it’s easy to see why with his strong projections at near-minimum pricing. Philadelphia’s passing game has been volatile all season with Jalen Hurts, and now Cooper is going to be catching passes from backup QB Tanner McKee, which naturally introduces some fragility. The saving grace is role and matchup -- Cooper is expected to operate as the Eagles’ top wideout due to Philly expected to sit their key starters, and Washington has been a dream opponent for opposing WRs, ranking 28th in pass DVOA while allowing the fifth-most FPPG to the WR position. At these price points, Cooper doesn’t need perfection to pay off.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Trey McBride, ARI | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.2k | vs. LAR

McBride has put together a truly elite season at TE, converting 161 targets into 119 receptions for 1,174 yards and 11 TDs over 16 games. He leads all TEs in target share and has shown slate-breaking upside, posting four games north of 29 DKFP, including one over 40 back in Week 15. After a rare quiet Week 16, he rebounded with a 10/76/1 line on 13 targets last week, continuing his strong rapport with Jacoby Brissett under center. Marvin Harrison Jr. remaining out only helps solidify McBride as the focal point of the passing game, even if the target spike hasn’t been as extreme as Michael Wilson’s. With plenty of value available at RB and WR, this slate sets up as one of the cleaner opportunities to pay up for an elite TE, and McBride easily carries the highest ceiling at the position.

Hunter Henry, NE | DK: $4.5k, FD: $6.1k | vs. MIA

Henry continues to be one of the more reliable mid-range TE options heading into Week 18, and the matchup helps with the tight end’s outlook. Miami has been one of the softest defenses against the position all season, allowing the third-most FPPG and sitting bottom-five in yards and TDs allowed to tight ends. Usage has also quietly trended up in Henry’s favor, as he’s led the Patriots in targets since Week 12 with 29 looks over that span, reeling in three TDs while averaging 13.6 DKFP/gm. There’s been clear chemistry developing between Henry and Drake Maye down the stretch, especially in the red zone. With New England still playing for seeding and Henry’s role feeling locked in, he checks the box as a solid TE with both floor and TD-driven upside.

Grant Calcaterra, PHI | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. WAS

With Philadelphia opting to rest a long list of starters, Calcaterra steps into a rare opportunity to play a near every-down role at tight end with Dallas Goedert out. The Eagles are expected to be without Jalen Hurts, their top three pass-catchers, and most of the starting offensive line, so this offense will look very different, but Calcaterra should be one of the primary beneficiaries by default. The matchup is excellent, as Washington ranks dead last in TE DVOA and has allowed the 5th-most FPPG to the position this season. Even with backups across the board, Philadelphia is still a 4.5-point home favorite with a decent 21.5-point implied team total, which keeps touchdown equity on the table. Calcaterra is far from a safe play, but at near rock-bottom prices, he makes sense as a punt TE that helps unlock spend-ups elsewhere.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Denver Broncos | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.6k | vs. LAC

Mid-Range D/ST: Minnesota Vikings | DK: $3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. GB

Value D/ST: Atlanta Falcons | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. NO

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!