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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Welcome back for one final regular season NFL Sunday! The week 18 main slate will be loaded up with 13 games for us to dig into. FanDuel will include the Sunday night game between the Bills and Dolphins where the AFC East division will be decided. For the purposes of this newsletter, we will primarily focus on the 13 mutually shared games.

The big thing to keep in mind for this slate is to target teams that have something worth playing for. Many teams are already eyeing the off-season and have no reason to risk playing their key starters much if at all, this Sunday. Other teams could be in “win and in (the playoffs)” scenarios or they could simply improve their playoff seeding and/or game location with a week 18 victory. Some teams do not necessarily control their own destiny but will still need to snag a win to keep any glimmer of playoff hopes alive. The teams that have nothing at stake this week shouldn’t be completely ignored, and we can likely find some value on some of those teams. But, for the most part, we will tend to rely on players from teams that will be fully motivated this Sunday.

Before we get into the recommended DFS plays, let’s get a rundown on what each team has at stake on this slate, going on a game-by-game basis:

🎯 = Indicates a team with something to play for AKA a team that we may want to target when looking for preferred DFS plays this week.

Note: I will only discuss the most straightforward playoff/division-clinching scenarios and forego mentioning all of the implications involving the more unlikely tie scenarios.

JAX (-4.5) at TEN | 42 O/U

🎯 JAX: The Jags can clinch the AFC South division and No. 4 seed with a win.

TEN: Eliminated from playoffs and locked into a top-10 draft pick.

ATL at NO (-3) | 42 O/U

🎯 ATL: The Falcons need a win plus a Bucs loss to win the NFC South division and clinch a playoff berth. A loss and they’re out.

🎯 NO: The Saints need a win plus a Bucs loss to win the NFC South division. If the Bucs win, the Saints can still snag a wildcard berth if the Packers and Seahawks both lose.

NYJ at NE (-1.5) | 30.5 O/U

NYJ: Both teams in this game are firmly out of the AFC playoff picture. A loss could improve their respective draft positions.

NE: See above.

MIN at DET (-3.5) | 46.5 O/U

🎯 MIN: The Vikings are still alive for the final NFC wildcard spot. They’ll need a win plus losses by the Packers, Seahawks, and Saints OR Bucs.

DET: The Lions are mostly locked into the No. 3 seed. They have clinched the division and a home game for wild card weekend. The only way they’ll move out of the No. 3 seed is if the Cowboys and Eagles both lose on Sunday, which is unlikely. I would expect that Detroit will still rely on their normal starters but it also wouldn’t shock me if some guys handle limited reps, particularly later in the game.

TB (-4) at CAR | 36.5 O/U

🎯 TB: The Bucs will clinch the NFC South division and No. 4 seed with a win and a Saints loss.

CAR: They’re a dumpster fire. Their No. 1 overall pick is going to the Bears in the upcoming draft and their only motivation this week would be to spoil the playoff hopes of a division rival.

CLE at CIN (-7) | 37 O/U

CLE: The Browns are locked into the No. 5 seed. They will rest some starters, including QB Joe Flacco, and will likely be very cautious with others.

CIN: Eliminated from playoff contention.

PHI (-4.5) at NYG | 42 O/U

🎯 PHI: The Eagles have clinched a playoff berth but they can win the NFC East division with a win and Cowboys loss. They will receive the No. 5 seed with a win and a Cowboys win.

NYG: Currently slotted in at fifth in the upcoming NFL Draft. They can jump as high as the second pick with a loss and wins by the Pats, Commanders, and Cardinals. A win could bump them as far back as the seventh overall pick.

LAR at SF (-4.5) | 40.5 O/U

LAR: Both teams are locked into their respective playoff seed. Starters for both teams will be rested.

SF: See above.

DAL (-13) at WAS | 46.5 O/U

🎯DAL: A Cowboys win secures the NFC East division and No. 2 seed, as does an Eagles loss. A loss could bump them down to the No. 5 seed.

WAS: The Commanders have lost seven games in a row and are currently positioned for the second overall pick. They can only hurt their draft position with a win.

CHI at GB (-3) | 45.5 O/U

CHI: No longer in playoff contention and they’re locked into the number one overall NFL Draft pick thanks to a Panthers loss last week. The only motivation would be to end the Packers playoff hopes with a victory.

🎯 GB: The Packers have the most potential playoff-clinching scenarios out of any team this week but, the simplest pathway to the postseason is just winning this game and they’ll make it in as the No. 7 seed.

KC at LAC (-3.5) | 35.5 O/U

KC: The Chiefs have clinched the AFC West and are locked into the No. 3 seed. Expect for most key starters to be out, including QB Patrick Mahomes, or very limited.

LAC: Eliminated from playoff contention. They currently own the fifth overall draft pick. A loss could move them as high as second overall and a win could move them down to eighth.

SEA (-2.5) at ARI | 47 O/U

🎯 SEA: The Seahawks are currently on the playoff bubble. They can earn a wildcard berth with a win and a Packers loss.

ARI: Out of playoff contention. Only draft implications remain.

DEN at LV (-3) | 37 O/

DEN: Eliminated from playoff contention. The Broncos are currently at 14th in the NFL Draft. A loss could potentially move them up to a top 10 pick while a win will move them into the high teens.

LV: Only draft implications remain.

BUF (-2.5) at MIA | 48.5 O/U (FanDuel Main Slate Only)

🎯 BUF: The Bills will claim the AFC East division and the No. 2 seed with a win. If they lose, they’ll need a loss from Jacksonville to claim the No. 6 seed.

🎯 MIA: The Dolphins will claim the AFC East division and the No. 2 seed with a win. A loss would give them the No. 6 seed.

So there you have it. Overall, there are nine teams on this slate with “something to play for” -- and 11 teams if we’re including the Bills/Dolphins game for the FanDuel main slate. Most of our preferred DFS plays will come from those teams marked with a "🎯" above. Best of luck and tread carefully on this slate! Let’s dive into some plays!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• CLE at CIN: Cold with a good chance for rain/snow. Winds around 10-15 mph.

• NYJ at NE: Looks like we’ll see some classic winter conditions in Foxborough on Sunday. Snow is expected throughout the game with 15-20 mph sustained winds and 35 mph gusts.

• JAX at TEN: 10-15 mph winds. Chance for some early-game rain.

• PHI at NYG: Chance for some snow.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Dak Prescott, DAL | DK: $8k, FD: $8.7k | at WAS

The Cowboys can still win the division and claim the No. 2 seed if the Eagles lose, but they’ll certainly look to just take care of business themselves by capping off the regular season with a victory. They are the heaviest favorites on the slate (DAL: -13) and Dallas leads the slate with a hefty 29.8 implied point total. Dak and the Cowboys have been a juggernaut at home this season but, unfortunately, they’re on the road this week. Prescott has averaged -52.7% fewer FPPG on the road this season. However, I’m not sure if the road factor will matter too much as the Commanders have steadily been the NFL’s worst pass defense throughout the season, ranking 32nd in pass DVOA and they have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to QBs.

Geno Smith, SEA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.3k | at ARI

The big emphasis for this week is targeting teams with something to play for and Seattle certainly qualifies. They will need a win and a Packers loss to make it into the postseason so there will be plenty of scoreboard watching in this one if Seattle jumps out to a lead (both the Seahawks and Packers have 4:25 ET kick-offs). Smith makes plenty of sense out of the mid-range as he’ll face a Cardinals defense that ranks 31st in pass DVOA and has allowed the 9th most FPPG to QBs this season. Arizona is also allowing 25% more pass attempts at home.

Jeff Driskel, CLE | DK: $4k, FD: $6k | at CIN

This is a safe play by no means but Driskel will be getting the spot start this week with the Browns locked into their playoff position. He’s the minimum price on both sites but his $4,000 salary on DraftKings is particularly intriguing for GPPs. Driskel has some rushing ability and the Bengals have allowed the 8th most rushing yards to QBs this season. Many starters will be out for Cleveland this week so Driskel’s supporting cast won’t be spectacular, but taking a gamble on him will open up a ton of roster flexibility for this slate.

Other QBs to Consider

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: N/A, FD: $9.5k | at MIA (FD Main Slate Only)

Jordan Love, GB | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.8k | vs. CHI

Tyrod Taylor, NYG | DK: $5.3k, FD: $7k | vs. PHI

Nick Mullens, MIN | DK: $5.1k, FD: $7.1k | at DET

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Rachaad White, TB | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.7k | at CAR

Some of the premiere RBs will be taking a seat this week so Rachaad White leads the way in this section. The Bucs will be fully motivated to win this game with the NFC South division on the line. White has ranked as the RB6 in fantasy scoring this season and receives a stellar match-up against the Panthers who remain dead last in rush DVOA and are allowing 1.3 TDs/gm to opposing RBs.

Kenneth Walker III, SEA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7k | at ARI

The Seahawks are in must-win territory this week. We’re on board with QB Geno Smith but it will be worth keeping Kenneth Walker III in play as well. The Cardinals have allowed the most FPPG to RBs this season, including +41% more FPPG to RBs when at home. Walker received 28 touches when these teams met back in week seven and he has averaged 22.0 DKFP/18.8 FDFP against the Cardinals over the last two years.

James Conner, ARI | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.3k | vs. SEA

The Cardinals have nothing to gain by winning this game but the players will still be going for the win and first-year head coach Jonathan Gannon should be coaching to win as well to end the season on a high note. James Conner has been outstanding across the last four games, averaging 109.8 total YPG with six touchdowns and 23.7 DKFP/21.1 FDFP per game. On the flip side, the Seahawks have been getting gashed by opposing RBs. Over the last four games, Seattle is allowing 165.3 total YPG to RBs along with 1.3 TDs/gm and 30.1 DKFP/26.9 FDFP per game. We should expect another huge performance out of Conner on Sunday.

Zamir White, LV | DK: $6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. DEN

Josh Jacobs (quad/out) will miss his fourth consecutive game leaving the door open for another Zamir White workhorse performance. Over the last three games as the Raiders’ RB1, White is averaging 22.3 touches/gm and he saw more involvement as a pass catcher last week with six targets. Volume is king in DFS and White is getting plenty of it in this elevated role. The Broncos have been better against the run in recent weeks but they’re far from an elite run-stopping defense and, on the season, they’ve surrendered the 2nd most FPPG to RBs. With White’s nearly guaranteed volume, he sets up as a quality play on this slate.

Pierre Strong Jr., CLE | DK: $4k, FD: $4.6k | at CIN

Neither Jerome Ford nor Kareem Hunt are on the injury report, but the Browns (locked into the No. 5 seed) have nothing to gain by risking potential injury to their top two RBs. We can expect plenty of touches for Pierre Strong Jr., possibly 20+, so he’ll be worth consideration at his low-end salaries. Strong is also a quality pass catcher, so he should factor in as a receiver as well.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

CeeDee Lamb, DAL | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10k | at WAS

Lamb is the most expensive player on the slate and perhaps the most obvious as well. There’s enough value available to where it should not be overly difficult to get up to him so I see no reason to fade. He’s been an absolute monster this season and, going back 11 games to week six, Lamb has scored at least 16.5 DKFP/13.5 FDFP in each game with six games of at least 28.2 DKFP/22.2 FDFP. He should have no issues torching this abysmal Commanders secondary that has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to WRs this season.

Justin Jefferson, MIN | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9k | at DET

The Vikings gave rookie QB Jaren Hall the starting nod last week before eventually going back to Nick Mullens after the first half. This ultimately bodes well for Justin Jefferson on Sunday. In Mullens’ two starts in weeks 15 and 16, Jefferson commanded a stout 30.3% target% and 45.5% air yard%. He has seen exactly 10 targets in each of the last three games and that feels like a fairly safe target floor again this week. The Lions have been awful against the pass recently, allowing the 3rd most FPPG to WRs L4Games, and there’s a chance they’ll be resting or limiting some starters since they are almost fully locked into the No. 3 seed. The Vikings will need a win plus losses from the Packers, Seahawks, and Saints OR Bucs in order to punch their ticket into the postseason, but the fact that they still have a slight chance to earn a postseason berth should keep them in attack mode all afternoon.

DK Metcalf, SEA | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.6k | at ARI

Metcalf has erupted for just one ceiling game this season (6/134/3 receiving line in week 13 against DAL) but he rarely puts up a dud performance and always has that sky-high fantasy ceiling. The Cardinals are not a team he typically plays well but I like Metcalf for Geno Smith stacks against Arizona’s 31st-ranked pass DVOA defense. Arizona has also been most vulnerable to perimeter WRs (8th most FPPG allowed) and Metcalf has run 85% of his routes on the outside this season.

Adam Thielen, CAR | DK: $6k, FD: $6.4k | vs. TB

The Panthers have been a disaster this season but they can play spoiler against the division rival Bucs by dashing their playoff hopes with a win this Sunday. I fully expect the Panthers to at least attempt just that since a loss doesn’t move the needle for any NFL Draft outcome either. Thielen’s hot start to the season feels like a lifetime ago, but we at least know that he has GPP-winning upside. The Panthers will also be without WR Jonathan Mingo whose 85 targets rank second on the team behind Thielen (134 targets). So, this could be a double-digit target game for Thielen and he’ll see a strong match-up against the Bucs, who have allowed the 7th most FPPG to WRs on the season. I’m also expecting Thielen to fall well under 10% ownership in GPPs this week.

Darius Slayton, NYG | DK: $4k, FD: $5.7k | vs. PHI

In two games with QB Tyrod Taylor either starting or playing most of the game, Slayton has stitched together his two best fantasy performances of the season, combining for seven receptions for 196 yards and two touchdowns. He’s been playing nearly 100% of the snaps lately and draws a juicy match-up against an Eagles secondary that has allowed the most FPPG to WRs this year. Slayton is far from a safe play, but he does bring quality upside to lineups at a low price point.

Bo Melton, GB | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5.2k | vs. CHI

This play hinges on the availability of other Packers' WRs. Currently, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Dontayvion Wicks are all listed as questionable for week 18. If two or all three of those guys are out, Melton could end up being a very strong value. He logged a season-high 66% snap rate last week and hauled in six of his nine targets for 105 yards and a touchdown. I believe Melton has played well enough to move ahead of Wicks on the depth chart, but if Reed and Watson are both active, we can probably ignore him for DFS this week since he’d be the WR4 and play limited snaps. The Packers have a “win and in (the playoffs)” scenario ahead of them this Sunday so look for them to stay aggressive throughout the game.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Trey McBride, ARI | DK: $6k, FD: $5.7k | vs. SEA

McBride has put together a breakout season and has rapidly emerged as one of the studs at the tight end position. He has seen at least seven targets in eight of his last nine games and is averaging +35.1% more FPPG in domed stadiums. McBride will receive a quality match-up against the Seahawks, who check in at 25th in TE DVOA.

Gerald Everett, LAC | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.2k | vs. KC

With star WR Keenan Allen missing each of the last three games, Everett has gone on to command at least eight targets in each of his last three starts. With the Chiefs being locked into the No. 3 seed, they will rest many of their starters on Sunday. So, Everett could post up a sneaky-good performance against a bunch of backup defenders.

Noah Gray, KC | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.8k | at LAC

With several teams sitting or heavily limiting their starters on Sunday, there are a handful of TEs that we can throw darts with on this slate. Travis Kelce is 16 yards shy of recording his eighth consecutive 1,000-yard season, so he may play a few snaps early on in order to hit that milestone. But it would make sense for the Chiefs to sit Kelce for most of this game, which would open the door for Noah Gray to take over TE1 duties. Gray would be the number one tight end for a lot of NFL teams but he has been blocked by playing behind a future Hall of Famer. He won’t have Patrick Mahomes throwing to him but QB Blaine Gabbert could play well enough to make Gray a quality value play.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Dallas Cowboys | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5k | at WAS

Mid-Range D/ST: New England Patriots | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. NYJ

Value D/ST: Los Angeles Chargers | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. KC

Contrarian D/ST: New York Jets | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.6k | at NE

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Jordan Love, Jayden Reed (Questionable), DJ Moore

QB + WR/TE + Opp Running Back (Game Stack)

Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, James Conner

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Dallas Goedert

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Rachaad White + Bucs D/ST

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Tony Pollard

Value Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Jeff Driskel, Cedric Tillman, Pierre Strong Jr.

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp Receiver

Tyrod Taylor, Darius Slayton, AJ Brown

Touchdown Call 🏈

CeeDee Lamb, DAL | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10k | at WAS

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Trey McBride MORE than 5.5 Receptions

Drake London MORE than 3.5 Receptions

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!