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LineStar NFL DFS & Prop Show w/ Tyler Wiemann

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Main Slate Rundown 📝

We roll into Week 2 with a fresh 12-game Sunday main slate! Week 1 gave us plenty of storylines — some teams came out firing, others looked like they were still stuck in preseason mode — but now we have at least one real data point to work with. That’s where some leverage and an edge come in.

This is the week when the field tends to overreact to what just happened. A one-game sample can be noisy, and players who busted in Week 1 can just as easily bounce back in Week 2. The key is balancing what we learned with what we already knew. If the usage was there but the production wasn’t, that’s usually a spot worth circling back to. DFS is a long game, and this is where early-season leverage is often found. So let’s try to cook up a winning recipe this week, shall we? Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report 🌦️

• NE at MIA (1:00 ET, 43.5 O/U): Typical Florida forecast for this time of year with some pop-up storms expected in the area. They could miss the stadium entirely, causing no issues, or one could fire up over the stadium and/or lightning pops off nearby, sparking a delay. Even if there is some kind of delay, for DFS and betting purposes, there’s not much to worry about here.

• PHI at KC (4:25 ET, 46.5 O/U): The 10 mph sustained winds in this game will make it the windiest matchup of the day. Not a big deal by any means, outside of maybe longer FG attempts.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.3k | at KC

Hurts finds himself priced in “limbo” as he’s just below the two obvious QB spend-ups -- Josh Allen (DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.8k) and Lamar Jackson (DK: $7k, FD: $8.5k) -- and there are several intriguing QBs in the value-to-mid range. So that likely leaves Hurts at < 10% ownership this Sunday, making him a strong leverage option. Hurts didn’t light the stat sheet on fire in week one, passing for just 152 yards. But he was efficient, completing 19/23 passes (82.6% comp%) while adding 62 yards rushing and two scores on the ground. TE Dallas Goedert is out this week, which may not be a total negative for Hurts. That could lead to more rushing involvement for Hurts in short-yardage or redzone situations. We also know that WR AJ Brown isn’t going to catch one target for eight yards again. The matchup with the Chiefs looks like a strong DFS environment, given its solid 46.5 over/under and narrow 1.5-point spread. It’s only a single-game sample size, but the Chiefs’ defense graded out at 31st in pass DVOA in week one and allowed 30.92 DKFP/27.92 FDFP to Justin Herbert.

Dak Prescott, DAL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.3k | vs. NYG

If you didn’t watch the Cowboys/Eagles game in week one, first off… why!? It was the first real game of the season! But, second, you’d look at Prescott’s final line and assume he had an awful game. However, Prescott actually looked much better than what the stat line would have you believe, and he’s a prime bounce-back candidate in week two. Cowboys WRs had four drops in that first game, which didn’t help matters, and Prescott also attempted seven passes of 20+ air yards, which was second-most among week one QBs. He only connected on one of those deep passes, but the fact that the Cowboys’ offense is willing to take aggressive deep shots opens up a strong ceiling for Prescott. This will be Dallas’ home opener, and Prescott typically performs better in domed stadiums (+27.4% more FPPG). Dallas has also had ten days to regroup from their loss last Thursday, while the Giants come in on “normal rest.” With the Dallas defense now operating without Micah Parsons, it’s also reasonable to assume that they’ll be involved in more high-scoring shootouts this season. Whether or not the Giants can force that sort of environment this week is TBD, but the Cowboys are only 4.5-point favorites in this game.

Justin Fields, NYJ | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.6k | vs. BUF

Fields is sort of the peak example of “not-so-great real-life NFL QB, but great fantasy QB.” That was on display in the back-and-forth week one game versus the Steelers, where Fields only passed for 218 yards and one TD on 22 attempts (though he did complete 72.7% of those passes), but he added massive value on the ground with 48 yards and two rushing TDs, resulting in 29.52 FP. The Bills graded out dead last in pass DVOA in week one and also allowed 70 yards on the ground to fellow dual-threat QB Lamar Jackson. You almost always want to run some sort of stack with your QB in DFS, but Fields is one of the few exceptions where you can roll him out “naked” in lineups (aka not stacking and NYJ receivers). However, WR Garrett Wilson (7-95-1 Wk1 receiving line, 40.9% Target%) is a pretty clear stack piece to connect with a Fields lineup.

Mac Jones, SF | DK: $4k, FD: $6k | at NO

I usually stick to three spotlighted QBs in this section, but when there’s a minimum-priced QB on the board, it’s tough not to at least point him out in case any readers may glance over him. With Brock Purdy expected to miss “2-to-5 weeks” with a turf toe injury, Mac Jones steps in as the 49ers’ multi-week replacement. Mac Jones is a very boring and subpar NFL QB, but he has 49 NFL starts under his belt and is certainly capable of returning value on these price points against one of the worst defenses in the league. The sort of lineups you can build out with a min-priced QB slotted in makes it a tough approach to ignore. With a fairly pedestrian 15-20 FP kinda day, Jones would go down as someone who “smashed” value.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.9k | at NO

If you’ve ever drafted CMC in best ball or season-long leagues, you were well within your rights to have a little PTSD when he popped up on the injury report with a calf injury ahead of the season-opener. But his availability was never really in doubt leading up to last Sunday, and CMC went on to garner 31 touches (22 carries, 9 receptions on 10 targets). He didn’t find the endzone but did amass 142 scrimmage yards while landing in the optimal lineup. A healthy CMC is just about the only RB who can end up as an optimal play without scoring a touchdown. Now, with TE George Kittle (hamstring) hitting the IR and WR Juaun Jennings (shoulder/questionable) not 100%, McCaffrey’s role becomes even more important for this offense. He’ll command plenty of ownership, but you can’t ignore this type of volume.

Chase Brown, CIN | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.5k | vs. JAX

While they were able to come away with the W, this Bengals offense never really found much momentum in week one. That will change sooner rather than later, and quite possibly this week against the Jags in a game that owns a slate-high 49.5 over/under. While he did score a tuddy last week, Chase Brown struggled with efficiency as he averaged just 2.0 YPC. But the headline here is Brown’s 23 touches represented a 92.0% RBTouch%, which was second among all NFL Week 1 RBs. So, as expected heading into the season, Brown is locked in as the workhorse RB in a great offense, and he’ll have much better days as a pass catcher moving forward as well (just two receptions on three targets for eight yards Wk1). This Jags run defense is average at best, and they allowed a fairly productive game to Chuba Hubbard (89 total yards and a TD) last Sunday.

Kyren Williams, LAR | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8k | at TEN

Williams profiles as a better DraftKings play, based on price, but you know you’re getting great volume and significant touchdown equity with him week-in and week-out. Williams led all RBs last week with a 91% snap%, his 90.5% RBTouch% was third on the week, and he handled 100% of the 3rd/4th down RB touches. Williams wasn’t very efficient versus the Texans (3.7 YPC), but this matchup sets up much better. The Titans allowed over six yards per carry to Broncos’ RBs in week one, along with six receptions to the RBs.

Breece Hall, NYJ | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.3k | vs. BUF

Hall looked outstanding in week one, showing significant burst and ripping off multiple explosive gains before finishing with 145 scrimmage yards on 21 touches. He’s going to have these sorts of big games this season, but Justin Fields and backup RB Braelon Allen do detract from Hall’s overall ceiling. But Hall certainly looks like an appealing GPP target this week at < 10% projected ownership. The Bills have struggled to limit explosive plays for over a year now, and that weakness was exploited by Derrick Henry in primetime on Sunday night. There is, of course, only one Derrick Henry, but it’s still worth pointing out that the Bills have up 7.6 YPC to Ravens’ RBs in that game. We still can’t expect almost 150 yards of total offense out of Hall again, but 100+ yards and the shot at a long TD is on the table.

Travis Etienne Jr., JAX | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.7k | at CIN

Etienne was another week one surprise. No touchdown(s) but 156 total yards on 19 touches catches the eye. In an unexpected move, the Jags traded backup RB Tank Bigsby to the Eagles, which clears a true RB1 workload for Etienne with rookie Bhayshul Tuten as the only real competition in the Jacksonville backfield. ETN had a 65.5% RBTouch% in week one, while Bigsby had a 17.2% RBTouch%. If most, or all, of those Bigsby touches now go to ETN, then we’re venturing in bellcow RB territory. With another productive week against a vulnerable Bengals defense, Etienne won’t be this affordable for long.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

CeeDee Lamb, DAL | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.7k | vs. NYG

On a slow day for the Cowboys’ passing game (only 188 yards from Prescott), Lamb still salvaged a solid outing with seven receptions on 13 targets for 110 yards. Those 13 targets represented a hefty 38.2% Target%. If we’re banking on a good bounce-back game from Prescott (though, again, he didn’t necessarily look bad versus Philly), then Lamb should follow suit with an even better game than last week.

Puka Nacua, LAR | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.4k | at TEN

We knew Nacua was going to be a target monster heading into this season, so it was no surprise to see him haul in 10-of-11 targets (37.9% Target%) for 130 yards in week one. Nacua was also second among Wk1 NFL WRs with a 48% target per route run rate. Nacua will run most of his routes out of the slot, so he’ll see a fair amount of Titans’ slot corner Roger McReary, who was the most targeted-against CB in the Titans’ secondary last Sunday (29% Targeted%).

Tyreek Hill, MIA | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.2k | vs. NE

Even after only one week, the “worry meter” is getting high in a hurry for this Miami team. That said, this is a good matchup for Tyreek Hill, and a potential spot where he could post a vintage performance at very low ownership. The Patriots will be without top corner Christian Gonzalez again this week, and New England allowed a league-high nine explosive plays to Geno Smith and the Raiders in week one. Hill probably shouldn’t touch a cash game lineup, but he’s a perfect GPP option.

Zay Flowers, BAL | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.3k | vs. CLE

In a game that combined for 81 points, it almost makes no sense to see that Lamar Jackson only threw the ball 19 times with 14 completions last Sunday. But nine of those attempts, and seven completions, went in the direction of Zay Flowers, which equates to a 47.4% Target% (2nd among Wk1 receivers). Flowers also commanded 52.6% of the total air yards and racked up 89 yards after the catch. The Browns aren’t going to be able to force the Ravens into a similar shootout as the Bills did, but Flowers is looking like the obvious go-to pass-catching weapon in a rather thin Ravens’ receiver room.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA | DK: $6k, FD: $7.4k | at PIT

I know we should only place a limited amount of weight on week one numbers, but JSN had some of the craziest results among week one receivers. His 13 targets represented a 56.5% Target%, but, which is wild enough… but, more notably, Smith-Njigba ate up 90.4% of the Air Yard share! Even in an outlier week for any player, that is a ridiculous AirYard% to achieve. We know QB Sam Darnold is not afraid to lock in on one receiver, and JSN is “that guy” for him, until proven otherwise. The Steelers have well-known corners Darius Slay and Jalen Ramsey manning the perimeter, but the matchup [for JSN] doesn’t invoke as much fear as it would have a few years ago when those guys were in their prime.

Ricky Pearsall, SF | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.2k | at NO

No George Kittle, no Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings (shoulder/questionable) might not be 100%, if he plays to begin with. It’s not an ideal situation with Mac Jones in at QB instead of the injured Brock Purdy, but I have a hard time imagining a scenario where Pearsall doesn’t see at least eight targets in this game. Pearsall’s seven week one targets represented a solid 21.9% Target%, and his 136 targeted air yards were a 58.4% AirYard% -- the next-closest 49ers’ receiver (Jennings) commanded just an 18% AirYard%. He’s looking like he’ll be pretty chalky, and there is certainly a viable thought process where it’s not a bad idea to pivot away from him in GPPs, but Pearsall does profile as a safe, high-floor play at an affordable price point this week.

Hollywood Brown, KC | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.5k | vs. PHI

Brown is in a very similar situation to the aforementioned Ricky Pearsall, except he has Patrick Mahomes throwing to him instead of Mac Jones. After some self-sabotaging from Travis Kelce, WR Xavier Worthy (shoulder) will not play this week, and WR Rashee Rice still has five games left on his suspension. With a depleted WR room, Brown was the recipient of a whopping 16 targets (41.0% Target%), which included a 40% First Read Target% and 60% Redzone Target%. He only had a 6.3-yard aDOT, so all of those targets did generally come closer to the line of scrimmage. It’s very doubtful he’ll match or exceed that same sort of volume (duh), but double-digit targets do look like a real possibility, which makes Brown a viable volume play even in a shaky matchup.

Josh Downs, IND | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.2k | vs. DEN

All of a sudden, Danny Dimes looks like a competent NFL QB and has brought new life to this Colts offense. His week one performance may end up being an aberration, but if it isn’t, we may be using some Colts playmakers this season. Josh Downs wasn’t a big part of the week one game plan (three targets, two catches, 12 yards). But the possibility of a shadow matchup for Michael Pittman Jr. with All-Pro CB Pat Surtain II could make Downs more of a factor. Downs will be nearly un-owned on this slate and brings plenty of leverage into play.

Cedric Tillman, CLE | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.4k | at BAL

Tillman was in on 88% of the Wk1 snaps and came away with a quality 5-52-1 receiving line on eight targets (19.1% Target%). The Browns (+11.5) are the largest underdogs on this slate, which should lead to plenty of pass volume once again. There are quite a few mouths to feed in the Cleveland passing game, but, going back to some breakout weeks last season, Tillman seems to own a well-established place in this offense.

Elic Ayomanor, TEN | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.8k | vs. LAR

I normally don’t throw this many WRs out in this section, but we’ll end with Ayomanor as an intriguing punt play. Ayomanor only caught two passes for 13 yards in his NFL debut, but he saw seven targets total (28.0% Target%), and he was targeted on several deep shots. Ayomanor ate up a team-leading 45.9% AirYard% with a deep 19-yard aDOT. He is one big play from paying off these low-end prices.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Trey McBride, ARI | DK: $6k, FD: $7k | vs. CAR

McBride sets up as the clear spend-up TE on this slate. Right out of the gates, he commanded a 31.0% Target% and was second among week one TEs with a 97% snap%. It’s also a great matchup versus a Panthers defense that ranked 31st in TE DVOA in 2024, and they were dead last in week one. Pretty straightforward play here, and with so much value across the board, it won’t be difficult to get McBride into lineups.

Juwan Johnson, NO | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5k | vs. SF

We’ve got several San Fran players spotlighted in this newsletter, so if you agree that the 49ers can feature some fantasy-relevant guys this week, then Juwan Johnson makes sense as an affordable bring-back option. This Saints offense will be limited in terms of downfield passing ability, and, as a result, Juwan Johnson was a dink-and-dunk machine for QB Spencer Rattler last week, bringing in 8-of-11 targets for 76 yards on an 8.1-yard aDOT. He also led all Wk1 TEs with a 99% snap%, and Johnson was the only non-wide receiver who had a 100% route participation rate. Tough matchup but… volume, volume, volume.

Harold Fannin Jr., CLE | DK: $3.1k, FD: $5k | at BAL

Fannin will be another popular value play this Sunday, but I’m willing to buy into the versatile rookie’s hype, even though I’m aware that there are plenty of similarities between his performance last week and Isaiah Likely's week one red herring game last year. Fannin only had a 64.6% route participation rate in week one, but the Browns clearly had a plan to get the ball in his hands, as nine targets were sent his way, and he even got a carry out of the backfield. David Njoku is still going to be a big part of this offense, and teams rarely support two fantasy-relevant TEs… although, Fannin is capable of operating as a big-bodied WR in some formations. Baltimore also struggled against Bills TEs last week, giving up 97 yards and a TD to the position while ranking 31st in TE DVOA, so I’m interested to see if Fannin can follow up his debut with another notable performance.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: San Francisco 49ers | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.8k | at NO

Mid-Range D/ST: Los Angeles Rams | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.5k | at TEN

DraftKings Value D/ST: New England Patriots | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4.4k | at MIA

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!