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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Bad weather, injuries, low scores, sloppy play, odd game scripts, and several other factors played heavily into a fairly underwhelming week one of the NFL season. A few games lived up to their billing, but many others fell short. Don’t get me wrong, it was still great having NFL back in full swing but I have a feeling that more entertaining Sundays lie ahead.

There’s always an added edge in week two of NFL DFS as many folks have knee-jerk reactions and place a little too much weight on a one-game sample size for certain players. We’ll still take knowledge from last week and apply it to this upcoming slate, but we can’t be afraid to go back to players who massively disappointed either. Also, now that DFS prices have had a week to adjust, the margin for error narrows. There will be less obvious value on the board, so we’ll really look to hit the nail on the head with those lower/mid-range plays so that we can afford the stud plays.

A dozen games land on this Sunday's main slate and will feature plenty of evenly-matched opponents. Only three games possess a spread larger than a touchdown, however, just like last week, only one game (KC @ JAX) owns a 50+ over/under. This should be a great weekend of football so let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• CHI @ TB: Good chance for some scattered rainstorms to hit the stadium at some point.

• KC @ JAX: A stray storm possible. Not expected to be a full-game issue.

• LV @ BUF: Light rain possible. Winds around 10 mph.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.2k | vs. LV

I don’t think it’s a priority to spend up on a QB this week, but if you’re feeling, Josh Allen is a prime bounce-back candidate following a four-turnover performance against an aggressive Jets defense on Monday Night Football. Allen didn’t have a massive day running the ball, but he did average 6.0 YPC when he did run, and we know that’s a skillset that’s always in his bag. The Raiders allowed a 79.4% comp% to Russell Wilson and, while they did not surrender massive yardage, they still are an early candidate to be a bottom-10 NFL pass defense. The Bills are tied with the Chiefs for a slate-leading 27.5 implied points, and I believe we’ll see a more focused Josh Allen and a more polished Bills passing attack in their 2023 home opener.

Trevor Lawrence, JAX | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.8k | vs. KC

As mentioned in the intro, this is the only game on the Sunday main slate that possesses a 50+ over/under, so this should be a prime DFS game environment to target. Lawrence was impressive with a 75% comp% in week one and made good use of his new receiving weapon, Calvin Ridley. Lawrence is no Lamar Jackson when it comes to being an elite dual-threat QB, but he does routinely add to his fantasy value by racking up 20-50 yards on the ground with the occasional rushing TD. He’ll take on an exploitable Chiefs secondary (28th in pass DVOA) in a likely shootout -- though, KC getting All-Pro DT Chris Jones (contract holdout) back in the mix will certainly bolster their pass rush and defense as a whole. If the Chiefs get Travis Kelce (knee/questionable) back in the fold, that will only increase the shootout possibility here and heighten the Jags likelihood of having to either lean pass-heavy while playing from behind or keep their foot on the gas to maintain pace with Kansas City on the scoreboard.

Baker Mayfield, TB | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.8k | vs. CHI

Folks often associate the Chicago Bears with stout defensive play, but that’s something we’ll need to forget about altogether until proven otherwise. The Bears were just carved up by Jordan Love and the Packers and head into week two with a defensive DVOA ranking of 28th, including a 30th-ranked pass DVOA. Chicago applied pressure on the quarterback on just 16.7% of dropbacks (9th lowest) last week and gave up a huge 15.8 yards per completion -- only the Chargers (16.6 yds/comp) were worse in that regard during week one. Baker Mayfield has a solid receiving duo between Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at his disposal, and while he didn’t light it up in his Bucs debut, he played solid, mistake-free football. He’ll have a good chance to pay off his modest QB salaries this week.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.5k | @ LAR

As long as you can find worthy value plays elsewhere, you can rarely go wrong with the CMC spend-up. The 49ers were never in any real danger of losing to the Steelers last week, yet McCaffrey still saw an 85% snap%, and he touched the ball on 25-of-66 offensive plays, resulting in a 37.9% touch% (ranked 2nd among all week one RBs). CMC wreaked havoc on the Rams last season, and the same could be expected here as San Francisco heads in as 8-point road favorites.

Bijan Robinson, ATL | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. GB

The Falcons are looking like the odds-on favorites to attempt the fewest passes in the NFL this season. QB Desmond Ridder threw just 18 passes in week one, and exactly half of those passes were targeted at the running backs. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier (DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.1k) lead a two-headed Falcons RB committee, and both could have standalone value, but Robinson is the extreme talent that will break some slates sooner rather than later. The Falcons boast a top-10 O-Line and, albeit a small sample size, Bijan ranked 10th among week one RBs in yards before contact per attempt and 11th in yards after contact per attempt. His six targets also represented a 35.3% target%. The Packers may not be the perfect match-up, but they did allow 11 receptions and 80 receiving yards to Bears RBs last Sunday.

Dameon Pierce, HOU | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6k | vs. IND

I’m a big fan of Dameon Pierce’s talent and, as a rookie, he was quietly one of the most elusive backs in the NFL a season ago, ranking 2nd among all NFL RBs with 8.1 rush attempts per broken tackle and 4th with 2.3 yards after contact per attempt. Unfortunately, he plays for a bad Texans team and will often get scripted out of games, as we saw last week in a 9-25 loss to Baltimore where Pierce had just 13 total touches (11 rush, two receptions). However, we should see a competitive game this week with the Colts visiting the Texans, who are one-point home underdogs. New head coach DeMeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik would prefer to lean on the run game while rookie QB CJ Stroud gets acclimated to the NFL level. In what should be a competitive game this week, Pierce could come through with a big day at low ownership.

Gus Edwards, BAL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.9k | @ CIN

Following the unfortunate Achilles injury to JK Dobbins, Gus Edwards and Justice Hill (DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.1k) will now have to step up to lead the Ravens’ backfield. There’s always the possibility that Baltimore will sign a free agent RB or make a trade but, for now, they’ll see where their current tandem can take them. Perhaps now is not the right time to play either guy, as it is a pure guess as to which player will handle the most touches. I’d currently lean toward Edwards, who has boasted a career 5.1 YPC average and has operated in a lead back role for the Ravens in the past. Hill punched in the two touchdowns on the goal line last week but I don’t believe that means he’s the guaranteed goal line back for the foreseeable future. And, as far as rushing volume goes, Edwards should be the primary early-down guy. The Bengals gave up 5.2 YPC to the Browns in week one along with 142 total rushing yards to RBs.

Joshua Kelley, LAC | DK: $5k, FD: $6.3k | @ TEN

This play is contingent on Austin Ekeler (ankle/questionable) being ruled out. As of Thursday, Ekeler has not practiced at all this week, leaving his availability for Sunday heavily in doubt. It was a fairly even Chargers backfield split last week, with both players in on about 50% of snaps and Ekeler slightly edging Kelley out in touches, 20 to 16. Kelley picked up chunk yardage en route to 91 yards rushing (5.7 YPC) and a touchdown. Much like last season, the Titans look as if they’ll be stout against the run but, should Kelley be the featured Chargers RB, then volume, opportunity, and affordable DFS price tags would outweigh most of those match-up concerns.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. SEA

If you play in any season-long fantasy football leagues, Rams WR Puka Nacua was probably a hot commodity off of the waiver wire. That is thanks to a 15-target, 10-catch, 119-yard performance against this Seahawks secondary in week one. Nacua did his damage on short-to-intermediate routes… the same sort of routes that Amon-Ra St. Brown specializes in. A proven young star receiver like St. Brown should have a field day if a fifth-round rookie can break out with a performance like that. ARSB picked up right where he left off in 2022 by putting up a strong 9-6-71-1 receiving line against the Chiefs to open up the 2023 season. The last time St. Brown faced the Seahawks, he exploded for eight receptions on 11 targets for 111 yards and two touchdowns, while tacking on 23 additional yards rushing and a two-point conversion -- good for 38.4 DKFP/31.4 FDFP. He brings that same sort of 30+ FP ceiling to this week two match-up.

Calvin Ridley, JAX | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.3k | vs. KC

We talked up Trevor Lawrence in this potential shootout, so why not give his new number-one receiving weapon a shout-out for a second consecutive week? Ridley’s 11 week one targets represented a huge 34.4% target% (ranked 6th among week one NFL receivers) and he also accounted for a 45.1% share of Jacksonville’s overall air yards. The Chiefs surrendered the 3rd most fantasy points to perimeter WRs in week one, which is where Ridley aligned on 85% of plays. FanDuel wasted no time pricing Ridley up, and he remains a strong DFS play there, but the $7,200 salary on DraftKings still feels just a bit underpriced even though we’re basing most thoughts, opinions, and expectations on a one-week sample size.

DeAndre Hopkins, TEN | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.1k | vs. LAC

Note: Hopkins (ankle/questionable) has yet to practice this week, so keep an eye on his status for Friday’s practice and into the weekend.

If Hopkins is ultimately able to suit up and is a full go this week, he’s going to be an appealing play against a Chargers defense that just got picked… or, rather, torn apart by Tua Tagovailoa for 466 yards passing (10.4 yds/att & 16.6 yds/comp). Hopkins corralled just five catches in his Titans debut, but his 13 targets represented a towering 39.4% target%, which ranked 4th among NFL receivers for the week. There is no doubt that he will routinely be heavily targeted in an offense without significant depth at receiver. If Hopkins is ultimately ruled out, Treylon Burks (DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.4k) and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (DK: $3.3k, FD: $5.4k) become intriguing, yet volatile, value plays.

Zay Flowers, BAL | DK: $5k, FD: $6.6k | @ CIN

On a day when the Ravens controlled the game from start to finish against the Texans, Lamar Jackson attempted only 22 passes. However, 10 of those passes (47.6%) went in the direction of rookie first-round pick Zay Flowers. While it wasn’t necessarily on display last Sunday, this Ravens offense is expected to be more pass-oriented under new OC Todd Monken. Baltimore was also without its Pro Bowl TE Mark Andrews last week, who remains questionable once again this Sunday with a quad injury. Regardless of Andrews’ status for this game, Flowers looks like a strong play at his current price tags. His targets didn’t come down the field often, evidenced by his short 2.6-yard aDOT. But “high targets + low aDOT” equals a high catch rate (Flowers caught 9/10 targets) and plenty of PPR goodness. Flowers also made moves after the catch with a 5.9 YAC average. To top it all off, he also picked up nine yards on two rushes. All of this tells me is that Todd Monken and the Ravens want to get the ball into Flowers’ hands by any means necessary. After losing starting RB JK Dobbins for the season, I can’t see how that thought process changes.

YouTube: Every Week 1 Target for Zay Flowers

Puka Nacua, LAR | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.8k | vs. SF

Tutu Atwell, LAR | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.5k | vs. SF

Clearly, there are plenty of targets up for grabs with Cooper Kupp (hamstring) residing on the IR. The big story of the week was the emergence of rookie Puka Nacua, who caught 10/15 targets (40.5% target%) for 119 yards. Third-year WR Tutu Atwell also had a big day, catching 6/8 targets (21.6% target%) for 119 yards as well. Nacua owned the target share but Atwell made the big YAC plays, averaging 15.2 yards after the catch. Nacua (oblique/questionable) popped up on the Thursday injury report and his week two status is now uncertain. He’s a solid DFS play if he suits up. Atwell goes from “somewhat risky, but strong value upside” if Nacua plays to “excellent value” if Nacua sits. The 49ers boast a great all-around defense, but their secondary is not their strength. San Francisco allowed the 5th most FPPG to WRs in 2022 and allowed 19 receptions for 185 yards to Steelers WRs last week. So, as far as Rams WRs go, it’s not the bad match-up that many folks might blindly assume.

Nico Collins, HOU | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.2k | vs. IND

Both Nico Collins and Robert Woods (DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.8k) saw double-digit targets against the Ravens, but it was Collins (11-6-80-0) who ate up an enormous 60.8% share of Houston’s total air yards, which ranked 4th among all week one NFL receivers. Volume reigns supreme and Nico Collins should be locked into steady targets most weeks. Combining high target volume with a high aDOT (Collins: 14.4-yard aDOT Wk1) often leads to high ceiling fantasy performances. This sets up as a strong match-up against a bottom-five Colts secondary that gave up a 14-165-2 receiving line to Jags WRs last week.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.5k | @ JAX

Kelce (knee/questionable) has been logging limited practices this week and, whether or not he stays limited in Friday’s practice, or is a full participant, he’s trending toward a week two return. Everyone who watched the season kick-off game against the Lions last week is aware of how desperately Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense could use Kelce back in the huddle. Barring any setbacks, Kelce should be out there on Sunday commanding his usual high target share against a Jags defense that allowed the 4th most receiving yards to TEs in 2022.

Zach Ertz, ARI | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.9k | vs. NYG

I don’t believe anyone is exactly chomping at the bit to get exposure to this Cardinals offense but Zach Ertz may be a cheap, volume-based DFS option to consider. It may have only resulted in 21 receiving yards, but Ertz’s 10 targets (six receptions) equated to a 33.3% target share from interim QB Joshua Dobbs. Ertz also had a pair of redzone targets in the game as well. Double-digit targets in back-to-back weeks might be wishful thinking, but Ertz’s low yardage total from last week certainly seems like an outlier and he’s a good bet to continue to operate as Dobbs’ safety net. The Giants gave up the 10th most FPPG to TEs in 2022 and they’ve allowed 101% more FPPG to TEs when away (L9 Games).

Jake Ferguson, DAL | DK: $3.3k, FD: $5k | vs. NYJ

Historically, cheap tight end chalk is the worst chalk to “eat” due to an abnormally high fail rate. That was apparent last week with Isaiah Likely, who blistered 1.4 DKFP/0.9 FDFP. As of this writing, it looks like the cheap TE chalk this week is trending toward Packers’ rookie TE Luke Musgrave (DK: $3.2k, FD: $5k). I don’t HATE the play, but I’m fine with pivoting to a similarly-priced Jake Ferguson at much lower ownership. The Cowboys are coming off of an absolute 40-0 stomping of the Giants in week one primetime, and Ferguson only brought in a pair of catches for 11 yards. The good news is that Ferguson was targeted seven times and played on 72% of snaps, despite the blowout. Those seven targets equaled a 28.0% target% and he led all TEs on the week with a 43.8% target per route run percentage. The No. 1 tight end for a Dak Prescott-led Cowboys team has always been a valuable fantasy role, and Ferguson currently owns that title. The Jets also boast a fierce group of cornerbacks, so tight ends are often the receivers who draw the best match-ups against them. The Jets allowed the 5th most receptions and 9th most FPPG to TEs in 2022, and they gave up seven receptions for 51 yards to Bills TEs in week one. It’s a sneaky-good spot for Ferguson to come through as a cheap DFS play.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Dallas Cowboys | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. NYJ

Mid-Range D/ST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. CHI

Value D/ST: New York Jets | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.7k | @ DAL

Low-Owned D/ST with Upside: Atlanta Falcons | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4k | vs. GB

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Trevor Lawrence, Calvin Ridley, Travis Kelce

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Baker Mayfield, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery OR Jahmyr Gibbs

Value Team Stack

CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, Dameon Pierce

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver

Daniel Jones, Darren Waller, Zach Ertz

Touchdown Call 🏈

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.1k | vs. SEA

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Bijan Robinson MORE than 17.5 Receiving Yards

Nico Collins MORE than 48.5 Receiving Yards

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!