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Main Slate Rundown 📝

We turn the page to week two where, depending on your DFS site of choice, we’ll find either a 13-game (DraftKings) or 14-game (FanDuel) Sunday main slate! Like last week, the Sunday Night Football match-up (CHI @ HOU) will be included in the FanDuel main slate action -- so I suppose that will be the norm this season.

Now that teams have had a full game and the first in-season week of practice, some of the rust that we saw in week one should be knocked off. There’s always an added edge in week two of NFL DFS as many folks have knee-jerk reactions and place a little too much weight on a one-game sample size for certain players. We’ll still take some knowledge and insight from last week and apply it to this upcoming slate, but we can’t be afraid to go back to players who were massively disappointing either, especially if there is some underlying info or clear missed opportunities that indicate they could have or should have had a much bigger week one.

On a quick content note, starting this week, instead of having a dedicated Sunday Night Football showdown newsletter, I’ll be throwing in a little cheat sheet at the end of these main slate newsletters. This is primarily so I can free up some personal time on the weekends (read: so I can watch as much college football on Saturdays and seven hours of commercial-free NFL football on Sundays). I may still write up the occasional showdown newsletter for some of the bigger SNF match-ups but that won’t be the plan most weeks.

Alright, with all of that mumbo jumbo out of the way, let’s get into this Sunday’s plays! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• LAC @ CAR (1:00 ET, 38.5 O/U): Some rain is a possibility throughout the afternoon. Winds will be in the 10-15 mph range. Not surprising to see a low total here.

• CLE @ JAX (1:00 ET, 41.5 O/U): Decent chance for some intermittent rain, as is often the case for Florida around this time of year. Winds around 10 mph.

• IND @ GB (1:00 ET, 40.5 O/U): Low-end chance for some rain, mainly later in the afternoon. ~10 mph winds.

• NYJ @ TEN (1:00 ET, 41.0 O/U): Low-end chance for a stray rainstorm. ~10 mph winds.

• CIN @ KC (4:25 ET, 48.0 O/U): 15 mph winds. That probably affects long FG kicks more than either passing game.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Kyler Murray, ARI | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8k | vs. LAR

Despite the 57 rushing yards, Kyler Murray posted a fairly unexciting week one fantasy performance. However, it may have been more of a result of the Bills’ defense being legit (especially based on how they stifled the Dolphins' offense on TNF) than the Cardinals’ having a lackluster offense. I also wouldn’t expect the stud rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. to have a one-catch, four-yard day again anytime soon. This domed match-up will be an enticing one for DFS given its high 48-point total and close 1.5-point spread in favor of the Cardinals. We’ll need further proof, but the Rams also may be trending toward a pass funnel defense -- meaning Arizona may find it difficult to get much production with a traditional running game and, instead, Kyler Murray may be tasked with a heavier responsibility to move the ball, both through the air and on QB scrambles.

Jayden Daniels, WAS | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.9k | vs. NYG

While it came in losing fashion, Jayden Daniels showed flashes in week one that displayed why he was taken with the No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft. It was a big day on the ground (16-88-2) for Daniels and, though he only went for 184 yards through the air, he was efficient with a 70.8% completion%. He also missed a pair of big connections with star WR Terry McLaurin that could have drastically improved his final passing line -- one play would have been a potential 60-yard TD in which McLaurin was streaking open on a deep post route but Daniels was (somewhat) pressured out of the pocket before he could pull the trigger; the other was a surefire 70-yard TD where Daniels overthrew McLaurin by about one yard along the left sideline. Not all of Daniels’ 16 rushes were by design and, as he gains more NFL experience, he will trust his arm a bit more. We, of course, can’t count on the two rushing TDs regularly but we have to love Daniels as a dual-threat DFS option as he makes his home debut against the hapless Giants. At times last week, the Giants made Sam Darnold look like prime Aaron Rodgers, ultimately allowing a 79.2% comp% and a pair of passing TDs. Now they’ll have to contend with Daniels, who can beat them with his arm and his legs.

Justin Fields, PIT | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7k | @ DEN

We’ll try this again and see how it shakes out. Fields is currently expected to earn another start with QB Russell Wilson still questionable to suit up due to a calf injury. Fields didn’t account for any TDs against the Falcons in week one but, had he managed to tack on a couple of scores, it would’ve been a decent fantasy day after he completed 73.9% of his passes for 156 yards and picked up 57 yards on 14 rushes. We can’t count on history repeating itself, but Fields did have a monster day against the Broncos last season when he threw for 335 yards and 4 TDs with an added 25 yards rushing. His DFS prices barely moved from last week and we know he can easily return value on these low-end salaries if he can either punch in or throw for a score or two. It would be worth monitoring Russell Wilson’s status ahead of this game and preferred if he is inactive as the Steelers’ emergency No. 3 QB like he was in week one.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Derrick Henry, BAL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. LV

An opening drive touchdown saved what would have been an otherwise disappointing Ravens debut for Henry as he handled just 13 touches (all carries) for 46 yards (3.5 YPC) and he failed to catch either of his two targets. Henry was also out-snapped 43-37 by preferred pass-catching back Justice Hill. However, given how that game script played out, none of what occurred in week one was all too surprising. As we’ve seen from his years in Tennessee, Henry relies heavily on game script and whenever the Ravens are fighting to keep up on the scoreboard or playing from behind, he’s going to have these lackluster performances. But when Baltimore can control the game and play with a lead, he’s going to be fed a ton of carries. We should expect the latter scenario to go down this Sunday as the Ravens (-8.5) are heavy favorites at home versus the Raiders. The Raiders also just got torched on the ground, allowing 161 yards on 21 carries (7.7 YPC) to Chargers’ RBs JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards (though, Dobbins takes most of the credit for those results). Henry shouldn’t be overly popular on this slate and he could easily top 20 to 25+ touches with multiple TD opportunities as the Ravens come in fresh off of the “mini bye” (10 days rest) and anxious to get their first win of 2024 in the books.

Josh Jacobs, GB | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.1k | vs. IND

Following QB Jordan Love’s sprained MCL injury that occurred in the closing moments of their week one game in Sao Paulo, Brazil last Friday, the Packers are optimistically listing him as questionable for week two. I’m no doctor but, based on everything I’ve read, this is an injury that takes anywhere from two to six weeks to heal, depending on severity, so we can safely assume that Love, who has been a DNP all week, is on the wrong side of that questionable designation. So, assuming Love is ultimately out, they’ll turn to backup QB Malik Willis -- a third-year QB who has had extremely limited NFL success (35/67 passing, 52.2% comp%, 350 yards, 5.2 YPA, 0 TDs, 3 INTs, 18.3% sack%). That would nearly guarantee a massive workload for Josh Jacobs out of the backfield, including a fair amount of dump-off passes. The Colts were not good against the run last year and week one looked no different as they were trounced by Joe Mixon for a 30-159-1 rushing line. The Colts may be able to afford to stack the box as much as they desire since Malik Willis simply isn’t a real threat passing the ball, so there is no promise of success for Josh Jacobs even if he handles 25+ touches. But we’ll trust the volume while also appreciating the fact that Jacobs shouldn’t garner much ownership on this slate.

Zach Charbonnet, SEA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.3k | @ NE

Injuries are already impacting a couple of backfields and we’ll discuss both RBs that should be stepping into a starter’s workload in week two -- though, you can probably guess who the other player is if you watched this past week’s edition of Monday Night Football. For Seattle’s backfield, they’re preparing to play without the services of lead RB Kenneth Walker III (oblique/doubtful). That’s going to thrust second-year RB Zach Charbonnet into the primary role. Charbonnet ran behind Walker last year and averaged a respectable 4.3 YPC. He was also effective as a pass catcher, bringing in 33-of-40 targets for 6.3 YPR. Folks may be less enthusiastic to take Charbonnet since he’ll be running up against a Patriots defense that stifled the Bengals' run game in week one… but the Pats also only faced 12 RB rush attempts, and they did surrender a touchdown along with five receptions to Cincy RBs. Regardless of match-up, we’ll like any decent RB at these price points when they have 20+ touch potential.

JK Dobbins, LAC | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.8k | @ CAR

This is one of those times where we need to pause on the week one overreaction, but we also can’t ignore how great JK Dobbins looked in his first taste of NFL action since week one of last season. Talent has never been the issue for Dobbins, but he has had some truly awful injury luck which has led to him playing in just ten NFL games since the end of his 2020 rookie season. Despite multiple severe right leg injuries, Dobbins appears to still have the speed to break away from NFL defenders. His top speed of 19.92 mph tied with Saquon Barkley for the fastest RB top speed in week one (via NFL Next Gen stats). It’s also not a surprise to see a Jim Harbaugh-led team wanting to lean on the run, especially with QB Justin Herbert needing to establish some rapport with his new-look receiver room. OC Greg Roman has stated that he will roll with the hot hand in this Chargers backfield and, though Dobbins had one fewer carry than Gus Edwards, he was far and away more efficient last Sunday. Dobbins also had a 58% snap% advantage over Edwards’ 42% snap% and he profiles as the better receiving back out of the two as well. It looks like it’ll be another rough season for the Panthers. Their run defense, once again, likely won’t do them any favors, and opposing offenses should often find themselves in run-heavy game scripts while playing with a comfortable lead. Carolina allowed the 6th most FPPG to RBs a season ago and they got diced up for 180 yards rushing by the Saints in week one. The Panthers are also going to be without arguably their best player, and certainly their best run-stopper, in DT Derrick Brown (knee/IR) who will miss the remainder of the season with a torn meniscus.

Jordan Mason, SF | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.5k | @ MIN

Mason is going to be mega chalk, that is a given. But the simple fact is that, since the 49ers played on Monday night when week two main slate salaries were already in place, Mason is now far too cheap for a guy that will dominate the usage out of this backfield. Christian McCaffrey (calf/Achilles/out) was presumably going to play in week one, albeit in a limited fashion, but his injuries, specifically the Achilles tendinitis, appear to be more serious than the 49ers initially led on. CMC is now being considered as an IR candidate, which would mean he’d miss at least four games. So it was the Jordan Mason show on Monday night as he went on to handle a whopping 29 touches for 152 yards and a TD. Mason also had a second TD called back due to a Deebo Samuel holding penalty (Samuel went on to score on that drive a few plays later). Mason’s 82% snap% tied with Breece Hall for the third-highest snap rate among week one RBs, trailing only Jonathan Taylor and Kyren Williams. Point blank, for the foreseeable future, Jordan Mason is going to be a bellcow on one of the most capable offenses in the NFL. If CMC does indeed go on the IR, Mason is probably a $7k or $8k RB by next week.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Joe Mixon, HOU | DK: N/A, FD: $8.1k | vs. CHI

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9k | vs. TB

ARSB had one of the more surprisingly poor week one performances among the usual fantasy superstars, catching just 3-of-6 targets for a measly 13 yards. He was still on the field for 98% of snaps (5th among week one WRs), he just never got anything going with Jared Goff as the spotlight was instead ceded to Jameson Williams (9-5-121-1, 67.9% AirYard%). A major bounceback is in the cards as St. Brown should enjoy a match-up with this Bucs secondary that was generally poor against WRs last season and will be without All-Pro safety Antoine Winfield Jr, and possibly without starting CB Zyon McCollum. As discussed in Jayden Daniels’ spotlight, while the Bucs didn’t surrender a ton of yardage through the air in week one, there were multiple opportunities where some big plays could have been had.

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $7.6k, FD: $7.7k | @ ARI

Demarcus Robinson, LAR | DK: $4k, FD: $5.2k | @ ARI

Tyler Johnson, LAR | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4k | @ ARI

Jordan Whittington, LAR | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.3k | @ ARI

I’m just going to lump these four Rams WRs into one section. Stud Rams WR Puka Nacua (knee) landed on the IR due to a PCL sprain he suffered in the week one overtime loss to Detroit. So, other guys will be stepping up out of necessity. Cooper Kupp is now the obvious alpha WR while Nacua is on the mend, evidenced by his absurd 21 week one targets (43.8% target%!), of which he caught 14 for 110 yards and a TD. It also helps that Kupp looked like the 2021 version of himself now that he entered into a season fully healthy. To no surprise, Kupp was also out there for 100% of the Rams’ offensive snaps on Sunday night. Demarcus Robinson (7-4-42-0, 92% snap%) has some established rapport with QB Matthew Stafford and, if you recall, he had some useful fantasy performances down the stretch last season. Fifth-year WR Tyler Johnson (7-5-79-0, 65% snap%) was perhaps the surprise Rams WR to step up once Nacua exited the game after 25 plays. Both Robinson and Johnson profile as the two favorites to take on the WR2/WR3 responsibilities and either could represent great value on this slate. Rookie sixth-round WR Jordan Whittington is the real wild card here. He played just two offensive snaps last week, but he did have a one-yard TD run called back due to a penalty and Whittington had a great training camp and showed off some real playmaking ability in the preseason. Now that the Rams are heading into a game with the knowledge that they won’t have Nacua out there, perhaps Whittington works into the game plan a bit more and eats into either Robinson’s or Johnson’s involvement. I’m willing to pass on the prospect of Tutu Atwell (DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.6k) doing anything of note. If that ends up backfiring on me, so be it.

Deebo Samuel, SF | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.3k | @ MIN

With the inevitable massive popularity/ownership of 49ers RB Jordan Mason, I do wonder how that will affect Deebo’s ownership since many folks don’t go out of their way to roster an RB and WR on the same offense within the same lineup. Just like Mason, Deebo’s week two DFS salaries are not reflective of a 49ers team that is without CMC. Brandon Aiyuk, who played only 60% of snaps and caught just two-of-five targets for 28 yards, may still be operating in a somewhat limited role since he missed much of the preseason while in his contract holdout. Regardless, Samuel is going to be used both as a receiver (9-5-54-0 Wk1 target/receiving line) and a runner (8-23-1 Wk1 rush line) with CMC sidelined. On a per-touch basis, Samuel wasn’t overly productive against the Jets. But the Jets also have one of the best all-around defenses in the NFL. The Vikings would represent a much softer defensive match-up in week two.

Rashee Rice, KC | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.9k | vs. CIN

Rice had an impressive sophomore season debut, leading the Chiefs receivers across the board in targets (9), receptions (7), and yards (103). Rice will see some run on the perimeter, but he will likely operate most out of the slot, as he did on 55% of routes last week. That bodes well for Rice as he’ll see plenty of aging 5’9” slot CB Mike Hilton. The Bengals secondary didn’t get tested much by the Patriots last week but they’ll be in for a drastically different match-up on the road against Mahomes and the Chiefs.

Malik Nabers, NYG | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.4k | @ WAS

Wandale Robinson, NYG | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.4k | @ WAS

QB Daniel Jones is a bit of a trendy value play this week, at least if “industry buzz” is to be believed. If the Giants end up having success through the air, I’d rather put more trust in gaining exposure to it through these two wideouts. Nabers is the exciting uber-talented rookie receiver who was going in the second or third rounds of most best ball and season-long fantasy drafts. Nabers was one of four WRs who played 100% of snaps in week one and, after popping up on the injury report this week with a knee issue, he has since been cleared for week two’s action after a full practice on Friday. He posted a so-so 7-5-66-0 target/receiving line on Sunday, but I would expect that will be about his fantasy floor in this Giants offense that is likely to be playing plenty of catch-up. Wan’Dale Robinson was the Giants’ week one target leader with 12 looks which resulted in six receptions for 44 yards. It’s not exciting and Daniel Jones isn’t going to throw it 42 times every game, but you can’t ignore double-digit targets. He will operate as the primary slot guy and draw a match-up with a rookie, slot CB Mike Sainristil. A poor Commanders secondary is the big reason for liking these NYG receivers. They were awful last year (2nd most FPPG to WRs) and allowed 15 receptions, 195 yards, and four TDs to Bucs’ WRs last week.

Terry McLaurin, WAS | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6k | vs. NYG

It was a very quiet season debut for McLaurin (4-2-17-0) but, as mentioned in the Jayden Daniels spotlight, it could’ve been HUGE -- view the tweet below if you care to see what could have been. McLaurin is easily the most talented receiver on this Washington squad and he rightfully accounted for a whopping 64% of the team’s week one air yards. There will be better days for McLaurin as he now has an actual talented QB throwing him the ball, and I would imagine that a big focus during Commanders’ practice this week was on establishing a better connection between McLaurin and Daniels. We’ll anticipate for Daniels and this Washington passing attack to take a step forward this Sunday.

Ladd McConkey, LAC | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.7k | @ CAR

McConkey found the endzone in his first career NFL game and his team-leading seven targets represented a 29.2% target%. Fellow WR Joshua Palmer (knee/questionable), who many consider the WR1 on this year’s post-Keenan Allen Chargers’ receiving corps, got in limited practices earlier this week before being a DNP on Friday. McConkey may be a quality value WR regardless, but if Palmer were to miss Sunday’s action, his floor (and ceiling) certainly rise.

Adonai Mitchell, IND | DK: $4k, FD: $5.3k | @ GB

Mitchell was another one of those guys who didn’t show up much in the box score (one reception for two yards) but he could have had a seriously impactful rookie debut and put up a slate-breaking DFS score if it were not for some miscues that were no real fault of his own. QB Anthony Richardson just flat-out missed him on a few throws… two of which would have most definitely been TDs -- one a 30-yarder, the other a 70-yarder (see tweet below). WR Alec Pierce ended up getting all the glory, with his 3-125-1 receiving line, but Mitchell beat his man multiple times and should be considered a definite big play threat moving forward. Low floor, high ceiling, but the chemistry will get there eventually between AD Mitchell and Richardson.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Sam LaPorta, DET | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.9k | vs. TB

If people are either looking for the Amon-Ra St. Brown bounceback game or chasing the Jameson Williams breakout game, it seems very likely that LaPorta will get lost in the mix. The Bucs were a strong match-up for TEs last year (3rd most FPPG allowed to TEs) and LaPorta drew 11 targets in both games against them in 2023. If you’re looking to be contrarian, spending up on LaPorta is one way to do so.

Trey McBride, ARI | DK: $6k, FD: $6.2k | vs. LAR

We gave Kyler Murray the spotlight in the QB section but have yet to discuss any of his receivers. Rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (DK: $6.9k, FD: $6.5k) is essentially guaranteed to have a better performance in week two, but his salaries are still on the pricier side and I’m willing to take the “wait and see” approach with him. We know there is some well-established rapport between Murray and Trey McBride -- in the eight games with Murray under center last year, McBride averaged 8.3 targets/gm and came away with a 53-538-2 receiving line, including a pair of 100+ yard single-game performances. Despite allowing the 14th fewest receptions to TEs in 2023, the Rams surrendered the 6th most FPPG to the position. It wasn’t a big week one for McBride (5 rec., 30 yards), but his nine targets were a team-high.

Jordan Akins, CLE | DK: $3k, FD: $4.7k | @ JAX

Historical data tells us that cheap tight end chalk is the worst chalk to roster. The popular cheap TE this week is likely to be Colby Parkinson (DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.8k), who is another Rams pass catcher who should benefit from the absence of Puka Nacua. Fellow Rams TEs Tyler Higbee (knee/out) and Davis Allen (back/out) are also out of the picture for now. Parkinson may end up working out, but Akins would be a similarly priced, lower-owned pivot who will need to step up with David Njoku (ankle/out) sidelined. They’ll likely elevate someone from the practice squad ahead of this game, but Akins is currently the only healthy tight end on the Browns’ active roster and he should be in line for a near-every-down role.

Theo Johnson, NYG | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4.5k | @ WAS

A total dart throw but Theo Johnson played on 86% of snaps and ran 38 routes (2nd most among Wk1 TEs) last Sunday. Johnson only caught one of the four targets Daniel Jones sent his way, but the snaps and involvement as a receiver are enough to keep him in the player pool if you’re looking to save even more salary from the aforementioned Jordan Akins (or the likely chalk value TE Colby Parkinson).

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: New York Jets | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5k | @ TEN

Mid-Range D/ST: Los Angeles Chargers | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.4k | @ CAR

Value D/ST: Denver Broncos | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. PIT

Contrarian D/ST: Jacksonville Jaguars | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. CLE

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Malik Nabers

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Kyler Murray, Trey McBride, Cooper Kupp

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (FanDuel Only Game Stack)

CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, DJ Moore

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Xavier Worthy

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

JK Dobbins + Chargers D/ST

Full Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Jordan Mason

Value Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Daniel Jones, Wan’Dale Robinson, Devin Singletary

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp RB (From a low O/U game)

Anthony Richardson, Adonai Mitchell, Josh Jacobs

Sunday Night Football Showdown Cheat Sheet

As mentioned in the intro, I’ll be adding a short and sweet SNF preview & cheat sheet at the end of the main slate newsletters. Dedicated showdown newsletters for MNF and TNF will continue as usual! 🙂

Chicago Bears at Houston Texans (-6) | 45.5 O/U

Bears: 19.8 Implied Points | Texans: 25.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries (as of Friday night): WR Keenan Allen - Questionable, WR Rome Odunze - Questionable, RB Dameon Pierce - Questionable, RB Khari Blasingame - OUT

Score Prediction: Bears - 17, Texans - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Texans, 3-3 Balanced, 5-1 Texans, 4-2 Bears

Sunday NFL Pick ‘Em ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Theo Johnson MORE than 18.5 Receiving Yards

JK Dobbins MORE than 57.5 Rush Yards

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Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!