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Main Slate Rundown 📝

The NFL season picks up steam as we fly into week three, where a loaded 12-game Sunday main slate awaits us. There is only so much information we can gather and assumptions we can make from two weeks' worth of regular season data, but some team identities, player roles, and defensive weaknesses are becoming clearer by the day! Let’s crush it this week! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

It looks like we’ll have some interesting weather to monitor this Sunday. Tropical storm Ophelia is poised to bring rains and some winds to the mid-Atlantic coast over the weekend, which could affect a few games. It’ll be best to go with the “wait and see” approach with the affected games as it pertains to DFS strategy for this Sunday’s main slate.

• NE @ NYJ: Rainfall is expected throughout the day in New York. Winds will hover around 15 mph sustained with gusts of 35+ mph. Take note of the very low 35.5 O/U here. It’s not as if either team is an elite offense, but expect both passing games to be limited.

• IND @ BAL: Scattered showers expected, primarily during the first half and into the third quarter. Winds around 10 mph with stronger gusts.

• BUF @ WAS: The bulk of the rain should be clear, or clearing, around kick-off but some showers could roll over the stadium throughout the game. Winds around 5-10 mph with ~15 mph gusts. Overall, while not ideal conditions, it’s a much better outlook than somewhere like New York.

• TEN @ CLE: 10-15 mph winds.

• DEN @ MIA: Some mid-game rain is possible.

• NO @ GB: Expect some windy conditions here -- 15 mph sustained with 20+ mph gusts.

• CAR @ SEA: Rain is expected.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Patrick Mahomes, KC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.2k | vs. CHI

Is anyone else feeling a Mahomes week? It kinda feels like a Mahomes week. Through two games, Mahomes has only completed 62.5% of his passes while averaging 6.6 yards per attempt and a 5.0% TD% -- these are well below his career averages of 66.2% comp%, 8.1 Y/A, and 6.4% TD%. Despite the “slow” start, by his standards, Mahomes has still averaged a commendable 22.9 DKFP/21.4 FDFP per game. Top target Travis Kelce has had another week to get healthier, the ragtag group of Chiefs WRs have gained further live game experience, and Kansas City takes the field at home with a slate-high 30.3 implied point total. Mahomes also draws a terrific match-up against a Bears secondary that ranks 30th in pass DVOA and has allowed 13.5 yards per completion -- the second-highest mark in the NFL. If you can find value at other positions, I see no issues spending up on Mahomes this Sunday.

Kirk Cousins, MIN | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.8k | vs. LAC

If there is one match-up on the board that has DFS players salivating, it’s this potential shootout between the Vikings and Chargers, which carries a slate-high 54.5 over/under. Not only do we have two great offenses going up against two poor defenses, but this game will be played in a dome and escape the elements that so many other games will be dealing with this Sunday. The Vikings have been the most pass-heavy offense, by a wide margin, through two weeks, having thrown the ball on 77.97% of plays. And most of those Kirk Cousins passes have been on the money based on his excellent 72.7% comp%. Now he’ll get to pick apart a Chargers secondary that ranks dead last in pass DVOA and has allowed a league-high 13.9 yards per completion. The great thing about playing Cousins in DFS is that he has a very defined group of pass catchers to stack with -- Justin Jefferson, TJ Hockenson, Jordan Addison, and KJ Osborn. I would expect that the Vikings would prefer to get the ground game going and not have to rely on the arms of Cousins quite as much. Alexander Mattison has looked slow and unexplosive which likely played a big part in Minnesota’s recent decision to trade for RB Cam Akers this past week. I’m not so sure Akers is the solution to their rushing woes, especially not so soon while needing to learn a new playbook. Look for Cousins to continue airing the ball out all afternoon in what could be a back-and-forth offensive slugfest.

CJ Stroud, HOU | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.6k | @ JAX

Stroud's 91 pass attempts rank 3rd among all NFL QBs through two weeks and the Texans will likely be forced into pass-heavy game scripts on a routine basis throughout the season. Stroud has gained some early rapport with his three primary WRs of Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and Tank Dell and it’s not completely insane to expect somewhat consistent 300+ yard passing performances out of the rookie QB. Given his affordable DFS price tags, we’ll look for Stroud to hit value against a Jags defense that has allowed the 4th most FPPG to QBs.

Andy Dalton, CAR | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.2k | @ SEA

I typically only spotlight three QBs but I’m throwing Andy Dalton out there as a bit of a bonus play. He’ll be getting the start this Sunday with rookie Bryce Young ruled out with an ankle injury. Dalton brings plenty of veteran experience to the table and draws a match-up with a Seahawks defense that has surrendered 328.5 passing YPG on a 71.2% comp%. But, best of all, he’s dirt cheap and can really open up some interesting star-studded GPP lineup possibilities.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tony Pollard, DAL | DK: $8k, FD: $9.4k | @ ARI

Despite coasting to a pair of blowout victories to open the season, the Cowboys have not been hesitant to feed Tony Pollard a heavy volume of carries and targets. Pollard’s snap count has taken a bit of a hit with the blowouts, having played on just 64% of offensive snaps this season. However, when he’s on the field, he’s touching the ball at a high rate and has garnered 39 carries and 11 targets -- that’s 50 opportunities on a combined 93 offensive snaps. The Cowboys (-12.5) are heavy favorites yet again which should lead to another sizable workload for their featured back. The Cardinals surrendered 27.2 DKFP to Saquon Barkley in week two before he went down with an ankle injury and that is the same sort of DFS scoring output we should expect out of Pollard. The upside gets juiced even further with this game being played in a dome -- Pollard averages +52.5% more FPPG in domed match-ups.

Rhamondre Stevenson, NE | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.5k | @ NYJ

If you read the weather report for this game, you’ll understand why Stevenson is getting a spotlight here, even in a lackluster match-up. Rain is expected throughout this game and, more importantly, in the case for Stevenson, winds are expected to be at 15+ mph sustained with 35+ mph gusts. I don’t see how either team is going to have any semblance of a downfield passing attack. So, if the weather forecast holds, I believe we can expect a significant volume of touches for Stevenson, which should include quite a few RB screens and dump-off passes as well -- the Jets have already allowed 18 receptions and 112 receiving yards to RBs through two games. Zeke Elliott is still going to handle some touches but Stevenson is the clear RB1 given his 72% snap% and 27 total carries to Elliott’s 12.

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7k | vs. ATL

Anyone who has caught either of the Lions’ first two games will have already noticed the shiftiness and escapability of rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs. It’s a small sample size, but Gibbs already leads all NFL rushers with 2.3 rush attempts per broken tackle and has picked up a solid 2.0 yards after contact per attempt. Gibbs also sets himself apart as a receiving weapon out of the backfield and is tied for third on the team in targets (11) and receptions (9). RB David Montgomery (thigh) is doubtful to play this week. The Lions do look hesitant to give Gibbs any sort of huge workload early in the season, so we should not expect a full featured back role for Gibbs even with Montgomery likely sitting out (expect RB Craig Reynolds to handle a decent amount of touches). However, Gibbs should still see a sizable uptick in snaps and his big play upside makes him an enticing DFS target.

Raheem Mostert, MIA | DK: $6k, FD: $6.6k | vs. DEN

Until Jeff Wilson Jr. (knee) returns from the IR, we can feel confident in Raheem Mostert’s stranglehold on the lead back duties for the Dolphins. Miami has one of the most capable offenses in the NFL and can move the ball up and down the field with solid consistency. This has helped lead to three Mostert touchdowns through two games. The Dolphins are also one of the few remaining offenses that still utilizes a blocking fullback (Alec Ingold) on over half of their plays, which often helps to spring Mostert into chunk gains on the ground. Mostert has accounted for 73.5% of Miami’s overall rush yards and I also expect him to pick up a solid number of targets in a game sooner rather than later (only three targets thus far).

Jerome Ford, CLE | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.6k | vs. TEN

It feels like a good week to either spend up or target the mid-range RBs but the opportunity that Ford has in front of him following the awful season-ending injury to Nick Chubb cannot be ignored. Before going any further, yes, this Titans run defense is legit and they head into week three ranking 2nd in rush DVOA and 2nd in allowing just 2.7 YPC to opponents. But I also believe that those match-up concerns, combined with the recent re-signing of Kareem Hunt, will scare folks off of Ford and lead to unexpectedly low ownership. As good as the Titans’ run-stopping unit is, the Browns also boast one of the best O-lines in football and will win their fair share of one-on-one match-ups. Until we see any sort of big game out of Kareen Hunt, Ford should be the de facto featured back and will also likely earn a few targets as well.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Jefferson, MIN | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.7k | vs. LAC

It’s sneaky by no means, but whether you’re looking for a premium stack piece for QB Kirk Cousins, or rolling him out solo, Justin Jefferson will be a prime luxury DFS target this Sunday. Despite not scoring a touchdown in either game this season, Jefferson has already racked up DKFP totals of 28.9 and 27.0, eclipsing the 150 receiving yard mark and 9+ receptions in both games. He’ll now look to have his way against a Chargers’ secondary that has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to perimeter WRs, and the most FPPG overall to WRs.

Keenan Allen, LAC | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.8k | @ MIN

I’m not going to act like I am some sort of genius for wanting to load up on the primary players in this game. It’s the most obvious game stack environment on the slate. With that said, we’ll look for another big day out of Keenan Allen following a massive week two receiving line of 10-8-111-2 which prompted scores of 34.1 DKFP/27.1 FDFP. The new system under OC Kellen Moore appears as if it is opening up more down-the-field opportunities for Allen, who remains Justin Herbert’s most trusted target. I also believe the continued absence of Austin Ekeler (ankle/out for 2nd consecutive week) has a maybe not-so-obvious positive impact on Allen’s receiving floor and ceiling.

Michael Pittman Jr., IND | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.7k | @ BAL

The list of receivers who have collected double-digit targets in each of the first two weeks of the season is a short one, but Pittman is on that list following 11 week one targets and 12 week two targets, resulting in a total of 16 catches for 153 yards and a TD. His 39.4% target% ranks 4th among all NFL receivers, behind only Puka Nacua (what a stud), Davante Adams, and Tyreek Hill. Rookie QB Anthony Richardson (concussion) won’t play this week but a capable backup steps in with Gardner Minshew set to start. Minshew at the helm is likely a net positive for the Colts’ passing game -- if anything, it’s far from a downgrade. The Baltimore secondary has not been elite by any means and has allowed the 6th most FPPG to WRs so far this season. The only issue I have with Pittman is centered around the less-than-ideal weather conditions that are expected in this game. Otherwise, I believe he makes for a sneaky high-upside GPP play.

Zay Flowers, BAL | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.3k | vs. IND

I continue to be impressed by this rookie, who looks like a potential future star at the wide receiver position. In week one, we saw the Ravens deliver a slew of targets to Flowers around the line of scrimmage as they just found ways to get the ball in his hands. In week two, we saw him haul in a spectacular 52-yard reception between two Bengals defenders (see tweet below), which is a strong indication that Flowers won’t exclusively operate as a short aDOT receiver. Despite potential poor weather conditions in this game, Flowers should still collect a strong target share, and he has been utilized as a runner out of the backfield in both games this season as well. Flowers leads all Ravens WRs with an 81% snap% and 27.8% target%. And now the Ravens will be without Odell Beckham Jr. (ankle) this week, who is second behind Flowers with a 71% snap%, and third on the team with a 13.0% target%. Perhaps what stands out most to me about Flowers is the fact that he has commanded a 55.6% redzone target share.

Josh Reynolds, DET | DK: $4.2k, FD: $7k | vs. ATL

Without looking through the entire player pool, I’m guessing that Josh Reynolds has the highest salary discrepancy of any player between DraftKings and FanDuel this week. His $4,200 tag on DK will clearly make him a better play there. Reynolds’ 19.7% target% and 146 receiving yards rank him second on the team behind WR Amon-Ra St. Brown. However, his 30.5% air yard% lead all Lions’ receivers, as does his two receiving TDs, both of which came in last week’s game. St. Brown (toe/questionable) is looking likely to play this week but is not expected to be at 100%. It’s possible that St. Brown may be used as a decoy at times. Reynolds (groin/questionable) also has an injury designation heading into Sunday, but don’t sweat him not playing since he recorded limited practices on both Wednesday and Thursday, before logging a full practice on Friday.

Jonathan Mingo, CAR | DK: $3.4k, FD: $5.1k | @ SEA

I came across an interesting tweet from @AlexCaruso this week, so credit to him for pointing it out -- there have been seven NFL WRs who have played on 90+% of their team’s offensive pass plays. The list is Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Deebo Samuel, DeVonta Smith, and… Jonathan Mingo. That is some elite company to keep, to say the least. Bryce Young may go on to be a star at the NFL level but, at this moment, Andy Dalton is more likely to provide better results for this Panthers’ passing game -- Dalton is, of course, starting for the injured Bryce Young this Sunday. Mingo makes for a highly intriguing GPP dart throw against a Seattle defense that has surrendered 239.0 YPG to WRs and the 4th most FPPG to WRs this season.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Travis Kelce, KC | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8k | vs. CHI

There’s plenty of value at other positions on this slate to make the Travis Kelce spend-up very doable. After missing the season opener with a knee injury, Kelce debuted in week two. He only played 64% of snaps and ran 23 routes, but, even though the final receiving line of four catches for 26 yards and a touchdown were not slate-breaking, he was still targeted nine times and was clearly Mahomes’ go-to option. After having another week to heal up, Kelce should see closer to his normal workload of snaps and carries plenty of multi-touchdown upside, as usual.

Taysom Hill, NO | DK: $3.3k, FD: $5.5k | @ GB

Hill gets paid like a quarterback, plays like a running back, and is designated as a tight end. Truly an enigma. What makes Hill an interesting “tight end” option this week is centered around the unavailability of RB Jamaal Williams, who will miss this game with a hamstring injury. Williams exited last week’s game in the first half and Hill went on to log a 40% snap% and ran the ball nine times for 75 yards. It was a noticeable uptick from his 14% snap% and three carries in week one. I believe there is a better chance than not that Hill will operate as the Saints’ primary running back, or at least have the potential for double-digit carries. This should include some valuable work in the redzone and near the goal line as well.

Durham Smythe, MIA | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.8k | vs. DEN

Through two weeks, the tight end who leads the NFL in snap rate is… Durham Smythe with a 99% snap%. Smythe may not have a huge performance to show through two weeks, but he has run the 5th most routes (63) among all tight ends. With the number of snaps he plays with high route participation, it’s only a matter of time before he has a really strong game. He’ll be a great way to save some salary this week.

Update: As I was uploading this newsletter, the Dolphins ruled out WR Jaylen Waddle for the week. Smythe looks like an even stronger (albeit, potential chalky) value play following this news.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Kansas City Chiefs | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.8k | vs. CHI

DraftKings Value: Buffalo Bills | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.4k | vs. WAS

FanDuel Value: Miami Dolphins | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. DEN

Contrarian D/ST: New England Patriots | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5k | @ NYJ

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Keenan Allen

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Michael Pittman Jr.

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Skyy Moore

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Durham Smythe

Value QB/WR/WR Double Stack

CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, Tank Dell

Full Team Stack - QB/WR-or-TE/RB

Trevor Lawrence, Calvin Ridley, Travis Etienne Jr.

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR/TE + Opp RB

Andy Dalton, Jonathan Mingo, Kenneth Walker III

Touchdown Call 🏈

Tony Pollard, DAL | DK: $8k, FD: $9.4k | @ ARI

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Jerome Ford MORE than 12.5 Rush Attempts

Zay Flowers + Michael Pittman Jr. MORE than 112.5 Receiving Yards (Combo)

🆕 Props AI 🆕

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!