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Main Slate Rundown 📝

The NFL season picks up steam as we fly into week three, where a loaded 13-game Sunday main slate awaits us. There is only so much information we can gather and assumptions we can make from two weeks' worth of regular-season data, but some team identities, player roles, and defensive weaknesses are becoming clearer by the day. Let’s crush it this week! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report 🌦️

• HOU at JAX (1:00 ET, 43.5 O/U): 10-15 mph winds, which may slightly affect longer FG attempts and deeper passes, but not a major concern.

• GB at CLE (1:00 ET, 41.5 O/U): Low-to-moderate chance of rain with 10 mph winds.

• IND at TEN (1:00 ET, 43.5 O/U): Low-end chance of a shower/storm.

• NO at SEA (4:05 ET, 41.5 O/U): Light, drizzling rain possible, more so in the first half of the game.

• DAL at CHI (4:25 ET, 50.5 O/U): Rain and potentially storms are expected in the area. They may avoid the stadium entirely, but it's worth keeping an eye on.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Caleb Williams, CHI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7.1k | vs. DAL

This Sunday’s slate lends itself to saving salary at the QB position, so we’re not going to spotlight a pricey QB just for the sake of it. There is no Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen to decide between, anyhow. So we’ll start with Caleb Williams, who has been much better for fantasy purposes, rather than real-life football purposes. This is the only game with a total north of 50 points, Williams has been adding rushing value with a handful of carries in each of the first two games, and the Cowboys’ defense has been ugly, allowing 29.2 DKFP/27.7 FDFP per game to the QB position while ranking 29th in pass DVOA. It makes sense to load up on both sides of this game, so this won’t be the only Bears/Cowboys player that you’ll read about in this newsletter.

Daniel Jones, IND | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.8k | at TEN

The jury is still out on whether or not Daniel Jones is legitimately as good as he’s been through two weeks, but, for the price (specifically on DraftKings), it’s worth testing the waters once more. Jones is currently the QB2 in FPPG, but is the 13th most expensive option at the position on DraftKings. FanDuel has reacted more appropriately, pricing Jones as the third-most expensive QB, but I’d still say he sets up well as a strong tournament play. Jones currently ranks 1st in yards per pass attempt (9.3), 2nd in pass YPG (294.0), 5th in completion rate (71.4%), and 6th in passer rating (111.1). The Colts’ O-Line has also protected him well, as Jones has only taken two sacks this season. And, of course, we can’t ignore the rushing upside he has brought to the table with 6.5 rush attempts/gm and three rushing TDs. Tennessee has been middle-of-the-pack defensively, and this will be the Colts’ first road game of the season. So, a “back down to earth game” could be in the cards for Jones, but the potential for another standout performance is there.

Marcus Mariota, WAS | DK: $4k, FD: $6.4k | vs. LV

Carson Wentz, MIN | DK: $4k, FD: $6.4k | vs. CIN

We’ll have not one, but two, min-priced QBs over on DraftKings this week. Both Mariota and Wentz are also only $400 above the minimum price for the position on FanDuel. Mac Jones worked out nicely for us last week (and was surprisingly under 10% owned), and there is just so much that a QB this cheap opens up as far as roster flexibility goes. Both Mariota and Wentz draw solid matchups, but if deciding between the two, I would have a moderate lean toward Mariota thanks to his rushing upside and the fact that the Commanders’ game plan likely stays about the same as it would if Jayden Daniels were playing. In two games where he saw extensive action last season, Mariota completed 80.5% of his passes with four TDs and no INTs while tacking on 90 yards rushing and a rushing TD.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Bijan Robinson, ATL | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.5k | at CAR

Arguably, the most talented RB in the game gets to face off with one of the certifiably worst defenses in the league. Seems pretty straightforward to me! Bijan has averaged 146.0 total YPG on 21.5 touches/gm, and the Falcons have been the fourth-most run-heavy team with a 51.5% RushPlay%. Meanwhile, the Panthers check in at 24th in rush DVOA and have allowed multiple explosive plays to RBs thus far in the young season. Bijan has also accounted for a 19.1% Target% (elite mark for a running back) as well as a 25.0% RedZone Target%. Bijan racked up 265 rush yards and four TDs in his two games against the Panthers a season ago, and he’ll bring some slate-breaking 30+ FP upside to the table once again this Sunday.

Bucky Irving, TB | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.4k | vs. NYJ

There is the risk of Rachaad White eating into Irving’s workload as the season progresses, but it’s not as if Irving underperformed in the same scenario last season. There is still plenty of reason to believe that Irving will play around 70% of the snaps and be a ~20-touch per game RB, especially while the Bucs WR room deals with injuries to multiple key guys (Egbuka is questionable, Godwin is out again, and McMillan remains on IR). The Jets have also allowed the 5th highest rush rate (50.4%), and the Bucs, who have been involved in a pair of closely contested games thus far, head into this week as one of the heaviest favorites on the slate (-6.5).

Javonte Williams, DAL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.2k | at CHI

Williams has emerged as the clear lead back for the Cowboys, and he followed up his week one two-touchdown performance with an 18-carry and seven-target game last week, which ended in 130 scrimmage yards and another TD. The touchdown rate may be unsustainable, but he remains a strong candidate to find the endzone versus a weak Bears run defense. The Bears are allowing 5.2 YPC, the 3rd-highest rush rate (52.4%), the third-most FPPG to RBs, and they’re 26th in rush DVOA.

Kenneth Walker III, SEA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.6k | vs. NO

This Seahawks backfield is set to be a near 50/50 timeshare between Walker and Zach Charbonnet, but, with Charbonnet now officially “doubtful” in week three due to a foot injury, Walker has little resistance to a bellcow workload on Sunday. He is currently 5th among NFL RBs in yards per carry (5.4), and he is 7th in yards before contact per attempt (3.2). Through two weeks, the Saints have allowed the 10th most FPPG to RBs, 4.7 YPC, and 6.5 receptions/gm to the position. It’s also a favorable implied game script with the Seahawks (-6.5) stepping in as the second-heaviest favorites on the slate. As long as he plays around 80% of the snaps, Walker is going to have a great opportunity to pay off these mid-range price points.

Jordan Mason, MIN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.8k | vs. CIN

There’s no real avoiding Jordan Mason this week. He’s going to be perhaps the highest-owned player on the slate, but with Aaron Jones Sr. (hamstring) being placed on IR and QB JJ McCarthy also sidelined, the Vikings are going to lean heavily on Mason. Backup QB Carson Wentz, who is getting the start on Sunday, has also been a bit of a check-down maven in the latter stages of his career. Getting a guy with a likely 20-touch floor at these prices is too tough to pass on.

Jeremy McNichols, WAS | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5k | vs. LV

This is a very speculative play, and likely one that should only be considered on DraftKings given their full PPR scoring system. But, with Austin Ekeler done for the season due to an Achilles tear, McNichols could possibly step into the “Ekeler role,” which would result in value for PPR purposes. Rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt is set to be the primary early down and short yardage RB, but McNichols should be in there on passing downs, assuming Chris Rodriguez Jr., who was a healthy scratch the first two games, doesn’t take on a significant role. Ya might need a lucky TD for it to work, but McNichols is a worthwhile DraftKings GPP dart throw.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

CeeDee Lamb, DAL | DK: $8k, FD: $8.8k | at CHI

No TeeDees for CeeDee just yet, but he has seen 24 targets thus far while also commanding a 44.5% AirYard%. The Bears are dead last in pass DVOA and have several members of the secondary injured and already ruled out this week, including All-Pro CB Jaylon Johnson, who is now on the IR with a groin injury.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8k | vs. NO

JSN has absolutely dominated the Seahawks’ receiving work and leads all NFL receivers with a 44.2% Target% and 63.3% AirYard%. Unless the Seahawks get out to a massive lead early, Smith-Njigba is starting to look like a lock for double-digit targets on a weekly basis. The Saints have also allowed the 6th most FPPG to left perimeter WRs, which is where JSN runs nearly 50% of his routes.

Editor Note: JSN was added to the injury report with an illness and is now questionable. Make sure he is active before kick-off tomorrow.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WAS | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.7k | vs. LV

Somewhat of a risky pick here with Jayden Daniels out, but I could see Marcus Mariota sticking to a mostly short-to-intermediate passing approach, which would directly benefit Deebo Samuel. Samuel has run 85% of his routes out of the slot while seeing 9.0 targets/gm and a 25.0% Target%. The plan is typically to get Samuel the ball close to the line of scrimmage (4.7-yard aDOT) and let him work his YAC magic. That’s been the case through two weeks, anyway, and Samuel is third among all NFL WRs/TEs in yards after the catch, behind only Zay Flowers and Ja’Marr Chase. The Raiders have also allowed the 5th most FPPG to WRs, so no issues with the matchup.

Tetairoa McMillan, CAR | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6k | vs. ATL

Tet McMillan looks like the real deal and has made an instant impact for a WR-needy Panthers team. He has seen a team-leading 19 targets through two games and has played 84% of the snaps. McMillan likely would have drawn shadow coverage from Falcons top CB AJ Terrell this Sunday, but Terrell has been ruled out due to a hamstring injury. So, it’s a definite matchup upgrade for McMillan and, up to this point, the Panthers have been the most pass-heavy team in the NFL (68.1% PassPlay%). Assuming they get behind on the scoreboard early, you can bet that Bryce Young is going to be throwing it upwards of 40-plus times again this week.

Jakobi Meyers, LV | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.2k | at WAS

Meyers is among the most underrated receivers in the league, despite consistent production when thrust into a WR1 role, which he is currently in. This is a narrow Raiders receiving tree, with Meyers and star TE Brock Bowers accounting for nearly 50% of the team's targets. Meyers is averaging 11.0 Targets/gm through two weeks and has been in on 93% of the Raiders’ offensive snaps. Volume alone makes Meyers a strong floor option, and, given all of the targets heading his way, it’s only a matter of time before he finds the endzone. It would be nice to see QB Geno Smith make better/smarter decisions than he showed against the Chargers last week.

Rome Odunze, CHI | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.4k | vs. DAL

Odunze is currently the WR4 in FPPG, which is almost certainly unsustainable. But it is clear that he has taken a step forward in year two and appears to be QB Caleb Williams’ most trusted receiving weapon. Odunze easily leads all Bears receivers with a 29.9% Target% and 42.2% AirYard%. The matchup also sets up extremely well with the Cowboys having allowed the 2nd most FPPG to WRs, including THE most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Odunze: 72% PerimeterRoute%).

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tucker Kraft, GB | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6.5k | at CLE

Kraft is a little banged up with a knee injury, officially listed “questionable,” but he is expected to play on Sunday. Following a breakout performance last week (6-124-1), it’s possible that Kraft could be breaking into the top tier of TEs sooner rather than later. For the time being, he is probably a top-two receiving option in the Packers’ offense while Jayden Reed recovers from collarbone and foot surgeries. The Browns have played well versus TEs up to this point, but they’ve also only gone up against the ghost of Mark Andrews and Mike Gesicki -- Kraft is the most involved receiving TE that they’ll have faced thus far.

Juwan Johnson, NO | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.7k | at SEA

No other tight end in the NFL has a higher snap rate than Juwan Johnson (97%), and he has seen 20 total targets head in his direction, which is also more than any other TE in the league. Tight end is such a crapshoot most weeks, so, with that sort of involvement, Johnson is tough to look past for as long as he maintains this high-volume role. The Seahawks have also allowed an NFL-high 20.4 DKFP/16.4 FDFP per game to the TE position through their two games.

Cade Otton, TB | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.1k | vs. NYJ

Otton hasn’t been too involved in the receiving game thus far, but he has still been out there on nearly every play (89% snap%) and has run 72 routes, which is just two fewer than team-leader Emeka Egbuka and three more than Mike Evans. So it’s probably only a matter of time before Otton has a spike week with quality target volume. And the chances of that happening this Sunday would increase dramatically if Egbuka (hip/groin - questionable) is unable to suit up. The Jets have also surrendered the 9th most FPPG to TEs, so it’s not looking like a worrisome matchup either. Also, for what it’s worth, Otton has averaged +95.5% more FPPG outdoors, and Tampa Bay’s first two games have both been played in domed stadiums.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Green Bay Packers | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5k | at CLE

Mid-Range D/ST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4k | vs. NYJ

Value D/ST: Houston Texans | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.4k | at JAX

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!