Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

^{Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.}

LineStar NFL DFS & Prop Shows w/ Tyler Wiemann

Stay up-to-date with all of the latest DFS and prop betting content by subscribing to the LineStar YouTube channel! 

Main Slate Rundown 📝

There are five ‘island games’ on the schedule this week (TNF, Dublin Game, SNF, MNF doubleheader), so we will be left with an 11-game Sunday main slate! Bye weeks will begin to kick in next week, so it will be a while before we get a huge main slate. With three games in the books for everyone, we have a solid amount of 2025 data points to analyze, but we will also need to look for players with “unrealized” upside to mix in with the more established quantities. It should be another fun NFL Sunday, so let’s get into it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report 🌦️

• PHI at TB (1:00 ET, 44.5 O/U): Your typical Florida forecast with rain in the area -- some lighter stuff, some heavier stuff. The wet weather may roll over the stadium, or it may not. Either way, barring a long, steady downpour, there shouldn’t be any significant weather impact here.

• JAX at SF (4:05 ET, 46.5 O/U): This is the ‘windiest’ game on the slate, but there should only be around 10 mph sustained winds here.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Herbert, LAC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.9k | at NYG

Through three games, Herbert is 1st among all NFL QBs in pass YPG (286.7), 2nd  in air yards (1,015), and 6th in aDOT (average depth of target). It’s safe to say that he’s slinging it this season, and he has also mixed in some rushing upside with 6.0 rush att/gm and 23.0 rush YPG. The Giants will be starting rookie QB Jaxson Dart for the first time this season, so it remains to be seen whether New York can force a competitive game script. That said, the Chargers (-6) aren’t massively favored in this game, and it’s a strong individual matchup for Herbert. The Giants have ranked 24th in pass DVOA, they have allowed the 8th-most adjusted FP to QBs, and they’ve pressured the QB at the 6th-lowest rate (16.2%).

Patrick Mahomes, KC | DK: $6k, FD: $7.8k | vs. BAL

These days, Mahomes tends to come in under the radar in terms of DFS ownership, and he no longer commands top-tier DFS salaries. But this feels like a good week to give him a shot. Excluding Kyler Murray, who already played on Thursday night, Mahomes surprisingly leads all QBs in rushing yards. Considering he has struggled a bit in the passing game, with just a 59.0% comp% and 223.0 pass YPG, the rushing numbers have been a big plus. However, things should be looking up for Mahomes in the passing department as he gets key receiving weapon, Xavier Worthy, back in the mix for essentially the first time this season -- most will recall that Worthy was injured when he ran into Travis Kelce at the start of their week one game. Baltimore is certainly capable of forcing a shootout, and this game owns the second-highest total on the slate at 48.5 points. The Ravens are also a subpar 21st in pass DVOA and have allowed the 3rd most adjusted FP to QBs this season. At presumably single-digit ownership, Mahomes looks like a great tournament option.

Geno Smith, LV | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.2k | vs. CHI

After looking awful versus the Chargers in week two, Geno Smith bounced back with a 289-yard, three-touchdown performance versus the Commanders last week. He has made plenty of head-scratching decisions so far this season, but Smith is 5th among all QBs in yards per completion (12.4). He gets a nice matchup boost versus the Bears defense that has allowed a 75.0% comp% and the 9th-most yards/completion.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.3k | vs. JAX

Plenty of tricky matchups await most of the top-end RBs on this slate, but a healthy CMC is about as matchup-proof as it gets. Through three games, CMC is the RB2 in fantasy despite scoring only one touchdown. QB Brock Purdy is back under center this week, which gives the 49ers’ offense more upside as a whole. McCaffrey owns an 85.0% RouteParticipation% and leads all RBs with a ridiculous 30.2% Target%, which is the sort of target share a WR1 typically commands. TE George Kittle and WR Brandon Aiyuk are still out, and WRs Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings are both “questionable” to play on Sunday, so CMC will continue to own a major pass-catching role. On paper, the matchup looks tough as the Jags have allowed the 4th fewest FPPG to RBs, but CMC will easily be the most talented and versatile RB they’ve faced up to this point.

James Cook II, BUF | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.5k | vs. NO

Cook continues to be one of the more underrated players in the realm of fantasy football. He has put up at least 100 scrimmage yards and a TD in all three games this season. The Bills (-15.5) are, by far, the heaviest favorites on the slate, which should lead to a run-heavy approach. A blowout is a concern for the Bills' starters, but in a 20-point victory over the Jets in week two, Cook still handled 22 touches and punched in a pair of TDs. The Saints have allowed the third-most adjusted FP to RBs this season, so we should view Cook as a high-floor/high-ceiling play on this slate.

Omarion Hampton, LAC | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7k | at NYG

Hampton is going to be a very popular mid-range RB target, but, with Najee Harris (Achilles) done for the year, the rookie is going to get his chance to dominate the Chargers’ backfield touches. After Harris went down after logging 11 snaps (13% snap%) last week, Hampton went on to log 68 snaps (79% snap%), and he recorded 19 carries and seven targets. That usage is complete bellcow back territory, and Hampton draws a stellar matchup versus a Giants defense that is dead last in rush DVOA and has given up 1.3 TDs/gm to RBs this season.

Tony Pollard, TEN | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.2k | at HOU

Pollard sets up as an intriguing leverage play and a worthy tournament pivot off of some of these chalky rookie RBs that reside in this general price range. He is quietly the NFL’s RB leader in snap% (90%), and he has handled 54-of-58 (93.1%) of the Titans’ RB rush attempts this season. Pollard’s efficiency hasn’t been great (3.6 YPC), and he has only seen six targets, which is a bit of a surprise since rookie QBs, like Cam Ward, typically dink and dunk it to their RBs quite a bit. But until Tyjae Spears returns from the IR, Pollard’s stranglehold on the lion’s share of the RB workload seems solid, and this is a sneaky-good matchup as the Texans check in at 28th in rush DVOA and have allowed the 8th most adjusted FPPG to RBs.

Quinshon Judkins, CLE | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.3k | at DET

I’d expect Cam Skattebo (DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.4k) to be another popular value RB, since Tyrone Tracy Jr. has been ruled out, but Quinshon Judkins also spikes some interest. He has only appeared in two games thus far, but Judkins has thoroughly impressed as a runner and currently leads all NFL RBs with 3.9 yards after contact per attempt. The Browns are double-digit underdogs, and the Lions possess a legit run defense, but if Cleveland wants to pull off another upset, like the one they had against the Packers last week, Judkins is going to have to be heavily involved.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Puka Nacua, LAR | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.4k | vs. IND

Nacua is the priciest WR on the board this week, but rightfully so. He leads the NFL with 29 receptions, ranks 2nd with a 37.6% Target%, and is 10th with a 46.0% AirYard%. That elite volume has led to a floor of 25.8 DKFP/20.3 FDFP in all three games. Nacua has been the 1A to Davante Adams’ 1B. However, Davante Adams (9.7 targets/gm, 30.2% Target%) is questionable this week with a hamstring injury. Adams was a DNP on Wednesday and Thursday and only got in a limited practice on Friday. If he were to sit out, Nacua’s insane target volume would only stand to increase.

Emeka Egbuka, TB | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7k | vs. PHI

Egbuka has jumped out as the early favorite in the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year race, and with WR Mike Evans (hamstring) out, likely for multiple games, he will be poised for an even larger role. Chris Godwin (ankle) is expected to play in his first NFL game since week seven of last season, but he may be limited in some capacity or have some rust to shake off. By all indications, Egbuka should be viewed as the WR1 at the moment, and the Eagles have allowed the 5th-most YPG (87.0) to WR1s this season.

Rome Odunze, CHI | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.2k | at LV

Odunze has emerged as Caleb Williams’ go-to receiving option in both players’ sophomore seasons. He has commanded a team-leading 28.4% Target%, 39.1% AirYard%, and he has hauled in four touchdowns. This matchup does have shootout potential (47.5 O/U, CHI +1.5) and Odunze, who averages +37.5% more FPPG in domed stadiums, sets up well against a Raiders defense that has surrendered the 3rd most FPPG to WRs.

Jameson Williams, DET | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.8k | vs. CLE

Williams is always a boom-or-bust option, but he ranks 5th in the NFL in EPA (expected points added) in the receiving game, and he has destroyed man coverage. The latter point is most notable because the Browns have run the highest ManCoverage% in the NFL (49.1%). So this may be a solid spot to anticipate a “boom” week, and Williams is almost always going to come in under 10% owned in tournaments most weeks.

Jakobi Meyers, LV | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.1k | vs. CHI

Despite the big Geno Smith game last week, Meyers ended up having a fairly quiet day with just three catches on four targets for 63 yards. However, Meyers saw double-digit targets in each of the first two games, and I’d bank on that to be a likely outcome again this week. The Bears have allowed the third-most adjusted FPPG to WRs, and they’ve been weakest versus the slot, which is where Meyers has run nearly 70% of his routes.

Chris Olave, NO | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6k | at BUF

Olave is stuck on a bad Saints offense, but if there is one thing he is guaranteed every week, it is target volume; Olave’s 37 targets (12.3 targets/gm) lead all NFL receivers. Unfortunately, a lot of those targets have been… well, off-target. But Olave has reeled in 88.5% of his “catchable targets” and, with a road game against the Bills on tap, anything below double-digit targets will be a mild surprise for Olave. With this sort of elite volume, it’s only a matter of time before he scores his first touchdown of the season as well.

Tyquan Thornton, KC | DK: $4k, FD: $5.4k | vs. BAL

While he did practice fully all week, Xavier Worthy may operate as a bit of a decoy at times in this game. Tyquan Thornton has proven to be an excellent big-play asset for Patrick Mahomes while Worthy (and Rashee Rice) has been sidelined. Among players with at least 15 targets, Thornton leads everyone by a wide margin with a 25.2-yard aDOT -- the next closest WR is Malik Nabers with a 16.6-yard aDOT. Worthy had a 9.2-yard aDOT in 2024, so it’s not exactly like these two guys play the same role in the Chiefs' offense. It’s a risky play, but Thornton is likely to see multiple deep shots in this game, and he may just need to connect on one of those to pay off.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyler Warren, IND | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.8k | at LAR

It’s a little early to say definitively, but Tyler Warren is certainly looking like the next young star at the TE position. He is 3rd among NFL TEs with a 24.1% Target%, and a couple of blowout wins for the 3-0 Colts have likely suppressed Warren’s upside up to this point. In those blowout wins over the Dolphins and Titans, Warren played 73% and 68% of the snaps, respectively. However, in the week two game versus the Broncos, in which the Colts eked out a 29-28 victory, Warren was out there for 93% of the snaps. Indy will be +3.5 road ‘dogs against the Rams this Sunday, which is the matchup with the highest total on the slate (49.5). So this could be a big game for the rookie out of Penn State, and it’s not a bad spot for him to score his first NFL touchdown (Rams: 19th in TE DVOA).

Hunter Henry, NE | DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k | vs. CAR

Henry exploded for a monster game last week (8-90-2 receiving line on 11 targets), which will probably lead to some high ownership. It will be a difficult performance to follow up, and we certainly can’t count on multiple TDs, but it’s an excellent matchup for another big game out of Hunter Henry -- the Panthers have allowed the most YPG to TEs (74.0) and check in at 31st in TE DVOA. The Pats should be able to move the ball well in this game and, when they get into the redzone, you can bet that QB Drake Maye will be looking in Henry’s direction -- Henry owns a massive 41.7% RedZone Target% this season, which leads all NFL TEs.

Cole Kmet, CHI | DK: $3k, FD: $4.8k | at LV

We’ve already spotlighted a few players from this game, so why not one more? Rookie TE Colston Loveland has yet to make a significant impact thus far, and he is also not expected to play this week due to a hip injury. Meanwhile, Cole Kmet has logged at least a 90% snap% in all three games, and he snagged a redzone touchdown last week. Kmet is third on the team, behind only WRs Rome Odunze and DJ Moore, with an 86.3% RouteParticipation%. So, while the target volume hasn’t been significant, Kmet is out there running routes on the vast majority of Caleb Williams’ dropbacks, and he should rarely come off the field this Sunday. The Raiders are also 25th in TE DVOA, so it’s not a bad matchup at all.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Buffalo Bills | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5k | vs. NO

Mid-Range D/ST: Los Angeles Chargers | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4k | at NYG

Value D/ST: Carolina Panthers | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.2k | at NE

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!