Penned By: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat.

• Rate LineStarApp on the App store and get a shoutout on Twitter from @LineStarApp official account!

• Have questions? Check out the LineStar Tutorial Wiki.

Top Pick’Em Offers 9/28/24 💸

Our editors found the top deals in sports-books so you don’t have to! Tapping below links will help support LineStar through an affiliate referral.

• Sleeper DFS - Deposit Match up to $100

• Underdog DFS - Up to $1,000 in Bonus Cash 

• Chalkboard DFS - Deposit Match up to $100 

• Parlay Play - Free $5 Entry

^{Must be 18+ (some states may require 21+) and be present in an eligible state; if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling, and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER.}

^.

LineStar DFS Picks & Prop Shows

w/ Tyler Wiemann & Shannon Sommerville.

Stay up-to-date with all of the latest DFS and prop betting content by subscribing to the LineStar YouTube channel!

Main Slate Rundown 📝

I’m not sure about everyone else, but time always seems to fly once football season comes around and we’re already diving into week four of the NFL season.

This Sunday will feature another 12-game (DraftKings) or 13-game (FanDuel w/ SNF game included) main slate, depending on your DFS site of choice. Injuries continue to plague a slew of notable players across the league so that’s naturally going to heavily impact our week-to-week DFS approach. As usual, some players highlighted in this week’s main slate newsletter will be mentioned largely based on relevant injuries to their fellow teammates while other players will be spotlighted because they simply set up as strong options and/or intriguing leverage options. Don’t forget that we’ll be throwing a little Sunday Night Football segment at the end of this newsletter as well! Let’s get it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• CIN @ CAR (1:00 ET, 47.0 O/U): Low-end chance for some light rain. Not a major concern.

• LAR @ CHI (1:00 ET, 40.5 O/U): More low-end rain chances. Nothing widespread. Winds around 10-15 mph, which may affect longer field goals -- not so much the passing games.

• PHI @ TB (1:00 ET, 42.5 O/U): Rain is possible, perhaps even likely, at times. Winds in the 10-15 mph range.

• BUF @ BAL (8:20 ET, 46.5 O/U): Moderately strong chance for scattered showers.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jayden Daniels, WAS | DK: $6.5k, FD: $8.2k | @ ARI

This game isn’t going to fly under the radar for anyone looking at this slate for more than two minutes. It possesses the highest total of the week at 48.5 points along with a fairly close spread (ARI -3.5). Kyler Murray (DK: $6.8k, FD: $8.7k) is in a prime bounce-back spot and should certainly be on your DFS radar but we’ll turn our attention to his counterpart. Jayden Daniels is off to an excellent start to his NFL career and the 38-33 week three MNF victory against the Bengals felt like his true coming out party. Daniels diced up the Bengals' secondary by completing 21-of-23 passes (91.3% comp%!) for 254 yards and two TDs while tacking on an additional 39 yards on the ground with a rushing TD. He’s not going to maintain his current 80.3% comp% but Daniels is making wise decisions with the ball (no INTs thus far) and he finally connected with his top receiver, Terry McLaurin, on a couple of big plays last week -- and one of his two incompletions from that game could’ve gone for another long TD pass to McLaurin had Daniels not overthrown him (albeit, while facing some pressure). Up to this point, Arizona has seen the 3rd lowest opponent pass play% (46.1%) at just 24.3 pass attempts/gm, but they have allowed the highest opponent completion% (75.3%). So, odds are, Daniels can put forth another efficient day through the air while also utilizing his elite QB mobility when necessary or called upon.

Caleb Williams, CHI | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7.1k | vs. LAR

Perhaps we’re being a little bold spotlighting back-to-back rookie QBs but Williams easily had his best performance as a pro last week, throwing for 363 yards and two touchdowns against the Colts. That was the good. The bad is that he also threw two picks and Williams needed 52 pass attempts to rack up all of those yards, resulting in a rather lackluster 7.0 YPA. That said, Chicago has yet to get much out of their ground game (72.7 rush YPG, 2nd lowest) so they may be content with Williams throwing it 35 to 40+ times per game on a regular basis. Keenan Allen is expected to return this week as well, which makes any Williams stacks a bit more complicated but is a notable boost to his overall arsenal of receiving weapons. The Rams also provide a friendly match-up as they check in at 31st in pass DVOA and they have allowed the 2nd most adjusted fantasy points to QBs, 2.3 pass TDs/gm, and a 72.2% comp%. It also can’t hurt that Williams will be back in front of his home crowd for the first time since week one when he looked every bit like a rookie QB making his first NFL start. His second career home game should go over much better.

Deshaun Watson, CLE | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.9k | @ LV

No one is going to feel good about this recommendation -- I know I certainly don’t. But if Watson is going to be under 5% owned, he’s intriguing enough as a cheap leverage play. There is no question that Watson has looked pretty awful thus far. His 4.8 yards per pass attempt is the second lowest mark among NFL QBs… and the guy who ranks dead last got benched for Andy Dalton recently. However, Watson still possesses quality upside from a DFS perspective and he did have his first multi-touchdown game of the season last week. The pass volume has certainly been there as well -- his 119 pass attempts are the 3rd most in the NFL. Watson has been the most sacked QB in the NFL this season (16 sacks), but perhaps he’ll face less duress against a Raiders defense that has posted the 4th lowest QB pressure (16.2%) and will now be playing without their best pass rusher in Maxx Crosby (ankle/out). This is also the same defense that just gave up 319 yards and three TDs to Andy Dalton last week. Watson has also added some value with his legs, posting 28.3 rush YPG with a rushing TD back in week two. That does a little something for his floor, and, eventually, the passing production has to come around… maybe.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Josh Allen, BUF | DK: N/A, FD: $9.2k | @ BAL

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Saquon Barkley, PHI | DK: $8k, FD: $9.7k | @ TB

The Eagles will be without WR DeVonta Smith (concussion) and WR AJ Brown (hamstring). The Eagles will likely need to lean heavily on Saquon Barkley this Sunday. Three games into his Eagles tenure, Barkley has ripped off two mammoth performances with one solid game sandwiched between. He leads all NFL RBs with 117.0 rush YPG and he is 2nd among RBs in yards before contact/attempt (3.7). Barkley has also received 19 redzone opportunities this season, so it’s no real surprise he has accumulated five TDs (4 rushing/1 receiving). The Bucs have allowed the 4th most adjusted FP to RBs and, while much of the fantasy scoring Tampa Bay has given up to RBs has been via the passing game (8.0 receptions/gm, 70.3 rec YPG to RBs), that’s certainly an area where Barkley could step up given the injuries to Philly’s top two receivers.

Bijan Robinson, ATL | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.3k | vs. NO

Robinson still saw a healthy 18 touches in week three and scored his first TD of the season, but his production capped out at 52 total yards after putting up an average of 116.5 scrimmage yards in the first two weeks. But we won’t let the low-yardage game sway us off of Bijan. He still has a strong run-blocking O-Line in front of him that ranks 9th in adjusted line yards and he’s up against a Saints defense that was just shredded by the aforementioned Saquon Barkley last week. The Saints will also be shorthanded at the second level with LB Demario Davis (hamstring/out) sidelined. Also, while I don’t place too much weight on performances from previous seasons versus a certain opponent, Bijan did put up huge fantasy scores in both of his games against the Saints in 2023.

Jordan Mason, SF | DK: $6.7k, FD: $8.8k | vs. NE

I expect Mason will see much lower ownership following his fairly uninspiring DFS result last Sunday that qualified him as a “chalk bust”. He still handled 21 touches and combined for 88 scrimmage yards, so for “real-life” football purposes, it wasn’t a bad day. He simply failed to crack into the endzone and only broke free for a couple of longer gains. I don’t love the fact that LT Trent Williams (toe/illness/questionable) is in danger of missing this game, but it does look as if the 49ers will be getting some of their receiving weapons back in the mix. That may end up benefitting Mason as he has currently faced the second-highest stacked box rate (8+ defenders in the box) among NFL RBs at 38.8%.

James Conner, ARI | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.5k | vs. WAS

Conner failed to get much going in a tough match-up versus the Lions’ defensive front (DET: 4th in rush DVOA, fewest adjusted FP allowed to RBs). Though, he was only given 10 touches despite playing 75% of the snaps. Nonetheless, he’s in an excellent bounce-back spot against the Commanders, who check in at 28th in rush DVOA and allowed 5.3 receptions/gm to RBs this season. Conner is a quality bring-back play if you’re looking to stack this game with QB Jayden Daniels on the other side, but he’s a solid target as a standalone play as well.

Aaron Jones, MIN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.6k | @ GB

Jones had his best game as a Viking last Sunday, putting up 148 scrimmage yards on 19 carries and five receptions (six targets), despite only logging a 60% snap%. The Minnesota O-Line has ranked 4th in adjusted line yards and Jones is 6th among RBs in YAC/attempt (2.9). Also, I’m not as big of a “revenge” guy as some of the LineStar faithful, but even I’m willing to admit that Jones may have a little extra juice this week as he takes on his former Packers squad in Green Bay where he played the first seven years of his career. I may regret it, but let’s give him the revenge bump this week.

Brian Robinson Jr., WAS | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.3k | @ ARI

With Austin Ekeler (concussion) out this week, Robinson is going to draw plenty of ownership. The thought process is pretty simple -- while Ekeler has not been a major threat to Robinson’s rushing volume, with just 13 carries through three weeks, he has been the clear third down/passing down RB and has brought in nine receptions for 121 yards while playing around 40% of offensive snaps. If Robinson soaks up most/all of Ekeler’s receiving work and snaps, we’re looking at an underpriced three-down RB in a decent match-up. Robinson has shown proficiency as a pass-catching RB in the past with a 36-368-4 (10.2 YPR) receiving line in 2023 and he has turned five receptions into 56 yards (11.2 YPR) this season.

Najee Harris, PIT | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.6k | @ IND

A season ago, this Steelers backfield was a near 50/50 split between Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren. That hasn’t been quite the case this season as Harris has handled 62 touches to Warren’s 19 touches. However, Warren has logged a fairly significant 36.7% snap% (Harris: 53.5% snap%). Warren (knee) is out this week so perhaps we’ll see Harris get closer to a 70-80% snap% in week four. Cordarrelle Patterson (34% snap% Wk3) will certainly get into the mix as well but Harris should be a good bet for around 20 touches and the majority of the redzone work against a Colts defense that has allowed 136.3 rushing YPG to RBs this season.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Marvin Harrison Jr., ARI | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.2k | vs. WAS

The Commanders have been obliterated by opposing WR1s thus far -- Wk1: Mike Evans (5-61-2), Wk2: M. Nabers (10-127-1), and Wk3: J. Chase (6-118-2). After a week one dud, Marvin Harrison Jr. has shown why the Cardinals took him as the 4th overall pick of this year’s NFL Draft, combining for 19 targets, 9 receptions, 194 yards, and 3 TDs over the last two games. Despite the poor week one, MHJ owns a massive 44.4% share of Arizona’s air yards and, though the catch rate may be ugly at 45.5%, he is drawing a deep 16.6-yard aDOT, so most of his looks are coming on potential big plays — the kind of plays that aren’t generally going to be high-percentage throws. Stud TE Trey McBride (concussion), who is second on the team in Target% and AirYard%, will be out this week so Harrison has high target volume locked down this Sunday in a dream match-up. Every pass can’t go to Harrison with McBride out, so guys like WR Michael Wilson (DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.3k), WR Greg Dortch (DK: $4.3k, FD: $5k), and TE Elijah Higgins (DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.9k) could be worthy value options in this potential shootout.

Nico Collins, HOU | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.7k | vs. JAX

Stefon Diggs, HOU | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.1k | vs. JAX

I’m sounding like a broken record with all of these injury notes but no Tank Dell (chest/out) this Sunday so the Texans’ stud WR trio is slimmed down to an elite duo of Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. Both guys saw double-digit targets last week, though it was almost out of necessity since Houston played essentially the entire game from behind and trailed Minnesota 21-0 five minutes into the second half. Still, CJ Stroud only attempted 31 passes so it’s not as if Collins and Diggs both got to 10+ targets by way of 50+ pass attempts from their QB. Tank Dell also played 67% of the snaps last week and drew six targets of his own. Collins makes for the more exciting play given his 44.7% AirYard% and 40% RedZone Target%, but Diggs has just four fewer targets than Collins on the season (but a much lower aDOT) and should bring a strong floor to DFS lineups with quality TD upside. The Jaguars also rank 32nd in WR2 DVOA (vs. 17th in WR1 DVOA), so if Diggs is the WR2 in this scenario, then there are underlying signs pointing toward him having a big game this week and he’ll be considerably lower-owned than Collins (but I love both Texans receivers in this spot).

Amari Cooper, CLE | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.4k | @ LV

If you read the QB spotlight on Deshaun Watson, you know that we tentatively have high(ish) hopes for the Browns’ passing attack this week. This Raiders pass rush hasn’t been effective (and, once again, no Maxx Crosby this week), so if Watson can get into a rhythm while not getting sacked every other play, there is some hope to be had for a guy like Amari Cooper. Targets haven’t been an issue for Cooper -- his 29 targets are tied with Rashee Rice for the 3rd most through three weeks among NFL receivers. However, his 12 receptions have equated to an awful 41.4% catch%. Note: this is no fault of Cooper’s -- only 13 of his targets have been deemed “catchable targets” so his adjusted catch rate is at 92.3%. After a couple of duds, Cooper managed to overcome Deshaun Watson's accuracy issues in week three, bringing in seven catches (on 12 targets) for 86 yards and two TDs. Watson’s accuracy can’t possibly get worse, at least not by a wide margin, and we’re holding out hope that he’s actually on target with most of his throws this week, so place a pin on Cooper’s name as a high-upside, low-owned leverage play.

Terry McLaurin, WAS | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.5k | @ ARI

As touched on in Jayden Daniels’ spotlight, the Daniels-to-McLaurin downfield connection was finally established in primetime on Monday Night Football. And, since week four main slate salaries were already posted by that time, McLaurin’s current price points do not account for the now-known week three results. McLaurin currently leads all NFL receivers with a monster 56.6% AirYard% and, while the stat lines won’t always be consistent with a rookie QB at the helm, McLaurin is likely going to put up some massive performances as the chemistry with Daniels continues to build.

Diontae Johnson, CAR | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.2k | vs. CIN

We’ll need to keep an eye on Johnson’s status since he is questionable with a groin injury. Assuming he is eventually cleared to play, I may ease off this play if Johnson looks like he’s going to be super chalky. But with Andy Dalton taking over, Diontae Johnson was an immediate beneficiary, catching 8-of-14 targets for 122 yards and a TD in week three. Now Adam Thielen (hamstring/IR) is on the shelf for at least a month, leaving no doubt who the top target is in this all-of-a-sudden competent offense. My one concern, aside from the groin injury, is that a lack of established NFL receiving weapons are available on this Panthers offense to take some defensive attention away from Johnson. Consider me lukewarm on this play for now.

Rashid Shaheed, NO | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.1k | @ ATL

It turns out that Rashid Shaheed isn’t going to beat the “boom-or-bust” profile anytime soon as he laid a fat goose egg last Sunday. Despite failing to show up in the box score, Shaheed did receive five targets and they had an aDOT (average depth of target) of 21.0 yards. His week three 58.0% AirYard% also ranked 4th among all NFL receivers. None of those five targets qualified as “catchable targets” so we can’t place too much blame on Shaheed for the poor showing. He’ll continue to be a volatile option but the upside remains sky-high. Fellow WR Chris Olave (questionable) was also a late-week addition to the injury report after suffering a hamstring injury during Friday’s practice, so if he happens to miss this week, Shaheed may be viewed as much more than simply a deep threat.

Darnell Mooney, ATL | DK: $4.4k, FD: $5.7k | vs. NO

Mooney has emerged in the last couple of weeks, bringing in 11-of-15 targets for 154 yards and a TD. Mooney has been on the field for 96% of offensive snaps this season and he has seen a nice mix of intermediate-to-deep targets while leading the team with a 32.0% AirYard%. He has run 84% of his routes either from the left perimeter or the slot, so Mooney will mostly see coverage from the Saints' two best corners (Marshon Lattimore & Alontae Taylor). Regardless, Mooney could still return value on these low-end salaries now that he seems to be a trusted target of Kirk Cousins and rarely leaves the field.

Tre Tucker, LV | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.8k | vs. CLE

Among the many key Raiders that are out this week, WR Davante Adams (hamstring) is the most notable for DFS purposes. Adams played most of last week’s game (95% snap%) but Tre Tucker acquired a season-high 81% snap% which he turned into a 9-7-96-1 target/receiving line. We can’t guarantee anything close to the same production again but Tucker should play upwards of 90% of the snaps and, at these bottom-of-the-barrel prices, the second-year wideout is deserving of a flier in some week four lineups.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Brock Bowers, LV | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.5k | vs. CLE

To continue on the Raiders’ week four absences, alongside Davante Adams, TE Michael Mayer (personal) will not be available this week. Bowers had a fairly quiet week three, but he should get back to playing a key role in the passing game, as we saw in weeks one and two. Bowers has played a 68% snap% this season while Mayer has logged a 57% snap%. The only other active TE on the current Raiders’ roster, Harrison Bryant, has played a grand total of 14 snaps this season. As a rookie playing a notoriously tricky position, I doubt Bowers will all of a sudden play 90+% of the snaps, but he could venture toward around 80% while also operating as a top-two receiving option when he’s out there. It’s not a perfect match-up but not a terrible one either as the Browns check in at 17th in TE DVOA.

Dallas Goedert, PHI | DK: $5.1k, FD: $7.5k | @ TB

FanDuel hit Goedert with a massive price bump following his slate-breaking 11-10-170-0 target/receiving line last week but $5,100 on DraftKings still feels like a soft price given the depleted nature of the Eagles’ receiving corps. Goedert will likely be the No. 1 option in the Eagles’ passing game on Sunday.

Colby Parkinson, LAR | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5.2k | @ CHI

We haven’t seen much production out of Parkinson even with the Rams being down their two star WRs. However, Parkinson’s routes run are the 3rd most among NFL TEs and he was one of two TEs who played 100% of the snaps in week three. The Bears also rank 31st in TE DVOA. Trying to figure out which “scrubby” Rams’ pass catcher is going to make a meaningful impact has been an exercise in futility the last couple of weeks but hardly anyone is going to be on Parkinson on this slate and, eventually, all of those snaps and routes are going to result in a good-to-great game (by tight end standards).

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: New York Jets | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.8k | vs. DEN

Mid-Range D/ST: Pittsburgh Steelers | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.5k | @ IND

Value D/ST: Denver Broncos | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.4k | @ NYJ

DraftKings Value D/ST: Minnesota Vikings | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.3k | @ GB (Boost if QB J. Love is out)

Contrarian D/ST: Kansas City Chiefs | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.6k | @ LAC (Boost if QB J. Herbert is out)

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Marvin Harrison Jr.

QB + WR/TE + Opp RB (Game Stack)

Derek Carr, Rashid Shaheed, Bijan Robinson

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (FanDuel Main Slate Only SNF Game Stack)

Josh Allen, Khalil Shakir, Mark Andrews

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Andrei Iosivas

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Breece Hall + Jets D/ST

Full Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Kyler Murray, Marvin Harrison Jr., James Conner

Value Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Justin Fields, George Pickens, Najee Harris

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp WR (From a low O/U game)

Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper, Tre Tucker

Sunday Night Football Showdown Cheat Sheet

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5) | 46.5 O/U

Bills: 22.0 Implied Points | Ravens: 24.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: None

Score Prediction: Bills - 27, Ravens - 23

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Bills, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Ravens, 5-1 Bills

Sunday NFL Pick ‘Em ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Xavier Worthy MORE than 0.5 Rush Yards

Amari Cooper MORE than 7.5 Rec Targets

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!