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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Week four is upon us and you know what that means… the Miami Dolphins just scored another touchdown on the Denver Broncos. Incredible! Okay, with that very original joke out of the way, what it actually means is that we know just a bit more about each team and player for the 2023 season. The unexpected studs are all emerging while some well-known studs are looking even stud..lier? Yes, we’ll roll with that. We also have plenty of guys who have yet to break out with a big performance but the opportunity is in front of them to do so at any moment. Now it’s time to block out the noise and get set for another loaded NFL Sunday! A dozen games land on the main slate ticket this week and it’s sure to be a blast! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

No significant weather notes this week! Plenty of sunshine across the board with no significant winds to speak of.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Justin Herbert, LAC | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.6k | vs. LV

Herbert has been outstanding through three games this season and leads the NFL with a 74.4% comp% and ranks second in redzone pass attempts heading into week four. The loss of Mike Williams (ACL) for the rest of the season is a sizable blow, but he still has the always trusty Keenan Allen at his disposal alongside an experienced Joshua Palmer and a high-upside rookie WR in Quentin Johnston. He’s now back at home at the domed SoFi Stadium where high-scoring shootouts are often born and will be going up against a Raiders defense that ranks 29th in pass DVOA. Herbert has played good-to-great in each of his six career games against the Raiders, averaging 309.8 pass YPG with a 14:1 TD:INT ratio. RB Austin Ekeler (ankle/doubtful) is also looking likely to miss his third consecutive game, which should place further emphasis on Herbert’s right arm and the passing game.

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.2k | @ TEN

Despite being one of the game’s best QBs, Joe Burrow is going to fly under the radar this week and likely check in with < 10% ownership. The concerns are valid. He still doesn’t seem to be completely over that lingering calf injury and, although the Bengals recently secured a win in primetime on Monday night, the avenue to victory wasn’t exactly impressive, at least on the offensive side. With that being said, Burrow seemed to finish out week three in fine health and he doesn’t carry an injury designation into this Sunday’s game. One great thing to see out of that MNF game was Burrow re-establishing his connection with All-World WR Ja’Marr Chase, who hauled in 12/15 targets for 141 yards. With Chase finally putting up a big game in 2023, it’s only a matter of time before the entire passing offense clicks simultaneously -- especially as Burrow’s calf injury continues to come close to 100% and he can make some things happen with his mobility in and out of the pocket. Burrow’s DFS salaries are now at their lowest points since the first half of last season and he takes on a Titans defense that is a complete pass funnel. The Titans boast one of the best run-stopping units in the NFL (3rd in rush DVOA) but they’re very susceptible through the air (26th in pass DVOA) and have allowed the 4th most passing yards this season. Also, despite Burrow and the Bengals not yet lighting it up, 71.62% of their offensive yards have come via the pass (10th highest). There are safer routes to take at QB, but I like the “buy low” spot on Burrow in week four.

Matthew Stafford, LAR | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.6k | @ IND

Stafford’s 910 passing yards through three weeks rank 5th among NFL QBs, however, he has just two touchdowns against four interceptions and a subpar 60.3% comp%. So he’s been inefficient, he’s made some mistakes, and the touchdowns haven’t been there. With as much as Stafford is throwing the ball, the touchdowns will come in due time… perhaps starting this week. The Colts check in mid-pack at 15th in pass DVOA and they surrendered multiple TD passes to both Trevor Lawrence and CJ Stroud this season. For these low-end salaries, Stafford is going to be worth a few shares this week.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.7k | vs. ARI

As usual, rolling with the CMC spend-up is about the safest DFS investment you can make in any given week. Even though he got some rest in another Niners’ blowout last week, CMC still handled 23 total touches despite playing a 61% snap%. McCaffrey has accounted for 72.3% of the 49ers total rushing yards (ranks 4th among NFL RBs) and owns a 39.0% opportunity share (percentage of team’s rush attempts and targets). He has also scored a touchdown in 12 consecutive games, so that’s always a nice chunk of fantasy points we can typically rely on. The 49ers are massive -13.5 home favorites over the Cardinals this week, but we’ll still look for CMC to put up his usual 20+ FP with an outside chance at 30+ FP before his day is done.

James Cook, BUF | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.8k | vs. MIA

Cook is averaging 111.3 scrimmage yards per game with a strong 6.1 YPC average. He has yet to find the endzone but, with such a consistent amount of touches on a great offense, it should only be a matter of time before he breaks the plane. As potent as the Dolphins' offense is, their defense is far from a stalwart unit, particularly on the ground where they rank 26th in rush DVOA and have allowed the 10th most FPPG to RBs. As if it isn’t obvious enough, we’re going to want exposure to this game that boasts a slate-high 53.5 over/under with the Bills being -3 home favorites.

Zack Moss, IND | DK: $6k, FD: $7.3k | vs. LAR

The volume that Moss has received over the last two weeks has been elite. He has carried the ball 48 times L2Gms for 210 yards while bringing in 6/7 targets for 42 yards and has found the endzone both weeks. There may be some concerns about mobile QB Anthony Richardson making his return from a two-game absence but, historically, mobile QBs have often helped their team’s RBs. We also have to wonder if there will be as many designed runs for Richardson in his first game back from a concussion. Either way, Moss is very likely to handle 20+ touches once again and faces off with a Rams defensive front that ranks 29th in rush DVOA.

Javonte Williams, DEN | DK: $5.5k, FD: $5.8k | @ CHI

Williams was always going to be a slow-start candidate this season while coming off of multiple torn knee ligaments in week four of last season. But now, following an embarrassing 50-point blowout loss, the 0-3 Broncos need to start getting their best players more involved. Samaje Perine may be out-pacing Williams in YPC and YPR averages, but there is no question that Williams is the better talent. While it’s not without some risk, we can anticipate this week to be Williams’ best showing, by far, in the 2023 season. The Bears are allowing the second most FPPG to RBs through three weeks and rank 30th in total DVOA. I’m not saying Williams should handle 25+ touches this week, but 15 carries and a handful of receptions with good odds at a touchdown? I could certainly see that happening.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyreek Hill, MIA | DK: $9.2k, FD: $9.6k | @ BUF

Hill has already put up two slate-breaking performances in three weeks with a pair of 9+ catch, 155+ yard, and 1+ TD box scores. Hill currently leads all NFL receivers, by a wide margin, with 480 targeted air yards and a 50.9% AirYard%. He is also second in the NFL with a 35.4% target%, behind only Davante Adams. This Bills match-up won’t be a cakewalk and they have allowed the 3rd fewest FPPG to WRs. However, the three QBs/offenses that they have faced have been Sam Howell/Commanders, Jimmy Garoppolo/Raiders, and Zach Wilson/Jets. Not exactly what I would consider a tough gauntlet thus far.

Keenan Allen, LAC | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.5k | vs. LV

Joshua Palmer, LAC | DK: $4k, FD: $6.1k | vs. LV

We’ll be lumping the Chargers’ top two pass catchers together since both make for great DFS plays this week -- Allen if you’re looking for the stud play, Palmer for value, or run out both, especially if you’re feeling good about a Justin Herbert double stack. Allen enters off of a mammoth week three where he posted a video-game-like receiving line of 20-18-215-0, and he also tossed a 49-yard trick play touchdown pass. He now owns a stout 33.1% target% and should be a lock for double-digit targets in most games moving forward.

Palmer is bumped up the the WR2 role in a potent offense. Despite Mike Williams playing most snaps last week (67% snap%) prior to his injury, Palmer came away with a 7-4-66-1 receiving line on a 61% snap%. We can now expect Palmer to consistently play closer to a 90% snap%. As touched on in the Herbert spotlight, this is a ceiling spot for the Chargers’ passing game against a Raiders defense that is 29th in pass DVOA. I also don’t hate the idea of taking a gamble on first-round rookie Quentin Johnston (DK: $3.7k, FD: $5.2) in GPPs. He fits a very similar mold to Mike Williams and it would not be a surprise if he eventually surpasses Palmer as the Chargers’ WR2. Regardless, all three Chargers WRs are underpriced on DraftKings.

Chris Olave, NO | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.9k | vs. TB

I wouldn’t consider going from Derek Carr (should/questionable -- probably closer to doubtful) to backup QB Jameis Winston a significant downgrade for the Saints passing game. And, in Olave’s case, it’s probably an upgrade. In three games with Winston as his QB during his rookie season, Olave averaged 9.7 targets/gm for 89.3 YPG. He also had a deep 18.5-yard aDOT with Winston at QB, which is a major step up from his current 11-yard aDOT in 2023. Olave currently ranks 7th in the NFL in receiving yards but has yet to score a touchdown. I believe he will get on the touchdown board this week while maintaining his high receiving upside.

Jakobi Meyers, LV | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.9k | @ LAC

This play is largely contingent on QB Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion/questionable) clearing the NFL’s concussion protocol in time for Sunday’s game. Garoppolo was a limited participant in both Thursday and Friday’s practices, which is a positive sign for his availability this week. There is no question that Davante Adams (DK: $8k, FD: $8.1k) is the alpha receiver in this offense, and he’s a strong DFS play as well, assuming Jimmy G is a ‘go’ on Sunday. However, in Meyers’ two healthy games, he has commanded an elite 31.4% target% as well with 22 total targets for 16 receptions, 166 yards, and two TDs. The Chargers rank 27th in pass DVOA and have allowed an NFL-high 337 passing YPG and the 2nd most FPPG to WRs so it’s a prime match-up for a Raiders offense that will need to stay aggressive and keep pace with L.A. in a potential shootout.

Adam Thielen, CAR | DK: $4.5k, FD: $6.8k | vs. MIN

Thielen would probably benefit from Andy Daulton starting another game but he’s still a viable option on DraftKings with Bryce Young expected back under center. After receiving just two targets in week one, Thielen has gone on to catch 18/23 targets for 199 yards and two TDs in the last two games. Thielen should serve as Young’s go-to safety net against a soft Vikings secondary that is allowing the 3rd most FPPG to WRs. Thielen, who primarily aligns in the slot, should see plenty of coverage from Vikings slot CB Josh Metellus, who has been targeted on 33% of routes run against him.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

George Kittle, SF | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.3k | vs. ARI

Kittle played a season-high 69 snaps last week and, in return, he posted his strongest performance of the young season with a 9-7-90-0 receiving line. The 49ers WR corps is banged up heading into this game as well so Kittle may take on a larger role as a go-to receiver. Brandon Aiyuk is expected back from his shoulder injury that kept him out in week three -- however, Deebo Samuel (knee/ribs) looks to be on the wrong side of “questionable” after failing to log a practice all week and WR2 Jauan Jennings is listed as doubtful. The Cardinals have also allowed the 4th most receiving yards to TEs this season and Kittle’s last three meetings against Arizona have resulted in 214 yards receiving (71.3 YPG) and five combined touchdowns. Kittle goes from a ‘good’ play to a ‘great’ play if Deebo sits.

Pat Freiermuth, PIT | DK: $3.4k, FD: $5.5k | @ HOU

Freiermuth has not had more than four targets in a game thus far but when the Steelers get into the redzone, he has looked like QB Kenny Pickett’s favorite option. Freiermuth has hauled in a pair of TDs in three games and has an excellent 36.4% redzone target%. The Steelers’ offense has looked very erratic early on but this should be a solid week for them as they take on the Texans who rank 25th in total DVOA. They have also allowed the 10th most FPPG to TEs so it’s a good spot for Freiermuth as well.

Tanner Hudson, CIN | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4k | @ TEN

If we’re ‘punting’ at the TE position this week, Tanner Hudson looks like a worthy value play with Irv Smith Jr. (hamstring) missing a second consecutive game. Hudson was called up from the practice squad last week and operated as the preferred pass-catching tight end with Drew Sample and Mitchell Wilcox also seeing snaps. Hudson led the trio with a 47% snap% and 59% route participation on Joe Burrow’s dropbacks compared to just a 17% route% for Sample and Wilcox. We don’t need much out of Hudson to hit value and the Titans are well known for their pass funnel defense. I could see Hudson operating as an extension of the run game if RB Joe Mixon struggles to get anything going against a stout Titans defensive front.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Philadelphia Eagles | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5k | vs. WAS

DraftKings Value: Cleveland Browns | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4.3k | vs. BAL

FanDuel Value: Cincinnati Bengals | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.1k | @ TEN

Contrarian D/ST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.9k | @ NO

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Justin Herbert, Keenan Allen, Joshua Palmer

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins

Value QB/WR/WR Double Stack

Matthew Stafford, Puca Nacua, Tutu Atwell

Full Team Stack - QB/WR-or-TE/RB

Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, D’Andre Swift

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR/TE + Opp RB

Russell Wilson, Courtland Sutton, Khalil Herbert

Touchdown Call 🏈

Chris Olave, NO | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.9k | vs. TB

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Joshua Palmer MORE than 3.5 Receptions

Michael Pittman Jr. MORE than 5.5 Receptions

🆕 Props AI 🆕

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!