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LineStar NFL DFS & Prop Shows w/ Tyler Wiemann

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Main Slate Rundown 📝

With byes kicking in for four teams (ATL, CHI, GB, PIT) this week, the Sunday main slate gets slightly slimmed down to ten games. That still leaves us with plenty of action to tune into, and, personally, I like how things are set up on these “smaller” main slates with six 1:00 ET kickoffs followed by four games in the 4:00 ET window. It should be another fun Sunday, so let’s see if we can find the right pieces to the puzzle! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report 🌦️

There are no notable weather conditions on this slate.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Daniel Jones, IND | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.4k | vs. LV

It’s another week where spending up at QB isn’t all too appealing, so we’ll begin with Daniel Jones, who, even with a couple of ho-hum games recently, is still the QB4 in fantasy scoring up to this point. Jones is top five among NFL QBs in completion percentage (71.9%), yards per attempt (8.9), yards per completion (12.4), and yards per game (269.5). He is also 2nd in passing success rate (a successful pass gains at least 40% of yards required on 1st down, 60% of yards required on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd or 4th down). The matchup is solid versus a Raiders defense that ranks 21st in pass DVOA. Also, for what it’s worth, Jones’ two big games to start the season were both at home. After a two-week road trip, Jones and the Colts will be back in Indy this Sunday.

Justin Fields, NYJ | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7.7k | vs. DAL

Fields is a much better fantasy QB than real-life QB, but, unless you’re a Jets fan, the first point is all we really care about. In the two games that he has played 100% of the snaps (left early week two w/ a concussion), Fields has amassed 129 rushing yards and three rush TDs. The rushing upside is clearly a big draw for Fields, and he is 2nd among QBs with a 15.7% designed rush rate. There is reason to believe that he could be a bit more involved as a runner in the redzone with RB Braelon Allen sidelined for the next 2-3 months -- Allen was being used as the Jets’ primary ball carrier near the goal line before sustaining a knee injury last week. And Fields hasn’t been awful as a passer, completing a respectable 65.0% of his passes and, more notably, 12.1 yards per completion, which is 6th among all QBs. The matchup also doesn’t get much better. The Cowboys have easily allowed the most FPPG to QBs as well as the 2nd-most yards per completion (12.0), the 3rd-highest completion% (73.3%), and the 6th-most rushing YPG (30.5).

Jaxson Dart, NYG | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.9k | at NO

It wasn’t the flashiest game, but Jaxson Dart did enough to put up a quality 19.8 FP in his first NFL start while also leading the Giants to their first win of the season. Losing WR Malik Nabers (ACL) for the season is a tough break for this offense, but Dart’s rushing ability does alleviate some concerns over how effective he can be as a passer. It’s a smaller sample size, but Dart leads all QBs with a 20.0% designed rush rate and will get to face a non-intimidating Saints defense that has allowed the 4th-most adjusted FPPG to QBs.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

De’Von Achane, MIA | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.1k | at CAR

Once again, there is a ton of value at the RB position this week, but Achane will be a pricier guy who stands out. He has already been 2nd among RBs in target% (21.4%), trailing only Christian McCaffrey. With WR Tyreek Hill (knee) done for the season, Achane’s involvement as a receiver should only increase. He only saw two targets in week four, but that seems like a clear outlier, and it was also by far his most productive game on the ground (20 carries for 99 yards). Despite his small stature, Achane is 11th among RBs in yards after contact per attempt (2.7), and his eight broken tackles trail only four RBs (Jeanty, Taylor, Cook, and K. Williams). The Panthers have allowed 5.4 YPC to RBs this season, so it could be a productive afternoon both on the ground and through the air for Achane this Sunday.

Derrick Henry, BAL | DK: $7k, FD: $8.4k | vs. HOU

Henry's stock is down after three consecutive games of ≤ 50 rushing yards and ≤ 12 carries. But his ownership will also be way down as a result, so it’s a good spot for some leverage. With QB Lamar Jackson (hamstring) ruled out and Cooper Rush stepping in as the backup, Henry should return to being a major focal point of the Ravens' offense. The Ravens last faced the Texans in week 17 last season, and Henry handled 29 touches for 165 scrimmage yards and two TDs. We might see him take on similar usage this week for a 1-3 Ravens team that is desperate to get their season on track. Expect plenty of stacked boxes against Henry this week, who already sees the 2nd-highest stacked box rate in the NFL. But, if there is one guy I’d have faith in barreling through numerous defenders, it’d be King Henry.

Omarion Hampton, LAC | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.5k | vs. WAS

In the first game without Najee Harris (done for the season), Hampton played 89% of the snaps and handled 100% of the RB touches. Hampton now has 294 scrimmage yards and two TDs over the last two games. He is finding plenty of room before contact, ranking 2nd among RBs with an average of 3.3 yards per contact. And, much like his collegiate playing days at UNC, the rookie has proven to be a great receiving back. The matchup isn’t great as the Commanders have ranked 5th in rush DVOA while allowing the 11th fewest adjusted FPPG to RBs. But this game does possess one of the higher totals on the slate (47.5) and a close spread (LAC: -2.5), so Hampton should be heavily involved in the game plan for all four quarters.

Breece Hall, NYJ | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7k | vs. DAL

Hall had a down 2024 season, but so far this year, he has been looking like the same explosive back that we saw in 2023. Volume has been the main issue, but now with Braelon Allen sidelined for an extended period of time, Hall’s touches should see a solid uptick for the foreseeable future. Hall has seen an 18.3% Target% this season, which ranks 3rd among all RBs and 2nd on the Jets team -- that also makes him “stackable” with QB Justin Fields, if you’re looking to go in that direction. As noted in the Fields spotlight, Dallas is an excellent defense to attack -- they’ve allowed the 5th most adjusted FPPG to RBs and rank 27th in RB DVOA.

Woody Marks, HOU | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.4k | at BAL

The snap rate has been steadily increasing for Marks this season, and the breakout performance arrived in week four when he took 21 touches (17 rush/4 rec) for 119 yards and two TDs. The ghost of Nick Chubb will still see his fair share of touches and probably play 40+% of the snaps, so, were it a tougher matchup, I’d probably err on the side of caution and wait for a larger sample size to gauge things. But the Ravens have been downright awful on the defensive side, ranking 29th in rush DVOA while allowing the most FPPG to RBs.

Rachaad White, TB | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.2k | at SEA

No Bucky Irving (foot/shoulder) this week, so Rachaad White should step into a featured role. We’ve seen White put up good numbers as a featured back in the past, and he had several solid fantasy performances last season, even after Bucky Irving emerged and took on a major role. I wouldn’t be surprised if Sean Tucker (DK: $4k, FD: $4.1k) sees a decent amount of work, but White’s likelihood of handling around 15-20 touches makes him an appealing play at these low-end price points. The Seahawks have been stout on the ground, but they have been hurt by receiving RBs, having allowed the most receptions (29) and receiving YPG to RBs (66.5) this season.

Rico Dowdle, CAR | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.9k | vs. MIA

There is yet another appealing value RB here with Rico Dowdle stepping in for the injured Chuba Hubbard (calf). Dowdle served as the primary RB for the Cowboys last year and provided serviceable numbers. He’s played a little over a third of the offensive snaps for the Panthers this season while also operating as their kick returner. He’s had at least 10 touches in the last two games, so we should see his volume roughly double this week. And it’s a great spot for Dowdle as the Dolphins have allowed 163.0 total YPG and the 7th most FPPG to RBs this season. The Panthers are only +1.5 underdogs here as well, so the game script shouldn’t get too out of hand to where they’d need to abandon the run early.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $7.9k, FD: $9.3k | at CIN

With plenty of value on the board this week, spending up on a stud WR like ARSB won’t be a problem. St. Brown is putting up an unsustainable touchdown rate (six TDs L3Games), but there’s no reason to believe he won’t find the endzone [at least once] again this week. The Lions lead the slate with a 30.0 implied point total, and St. Brown has commanded a monster 50.0% RedZone Target%. The Bengals have allowed the 10th most YPG to WR1s and the 8th most FPPG to WRs overall.

George Pickens, DAL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $7.1k | at NYJ

CeeDee Lamb played just seven snaps in week three before a high ankle sprain knocked him out of the game. Lamb missed last week and will miss at least one more game after being ruled out for this week. In the last two games [mostly] without Lamb on the field, George Pickens has stepped in to command 20 targets with 13 receptions, 202 yards, and three TDs. Pickens will likely draw shadow coverage from Sauce Gardner, but Gardner hasn’t been as stout as usual, and the Jets check in at 27th in WR1 DVOA while having the 3rd-highest EPA (expected points added) against the pass. So the matchup shouldn’t exactly scare people off of Pickens, given his current WR1 role.

Garrett Wilson, NYJ | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.8k | vs. DAL

Despite Justin Fields’ limitations as a passer, that hasn’t detracted from Garrett Wilson’s usage and fantasy upside. The volume has been elite as Wilson ranks 1st among all NFL receivers in Target% (36.5%) and 5th in AirYard% (45.9%). Wilson does see some usage out of the slot, but has run 65% of his routes on the perimeter this season. That could be where he does most of his damage, as the Cowboys have allowed the most FPPG to perimeter WRs. They’re also 31st in WR1 DVOA and, to state the obvious, Wilson is the unquestioned WR1 in this offense.

Quentin Johnston, LAC | DK: $5.7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. WAS

After a turbulent first two seasons in the NFL, I’ve been hesitant to buy into Quentin Johnston this season, but four games is a large enough sample size for me to get on board. He is the WR7 in PPR scoring (WR5 in half PPR) while leading the Chargers in Target% (23.0%) and AirYard% (39.1%). Johnston does typically see the downfield shots from QB Justin Herbert, so he isn’t going to consistently see catchable targets (59.5% Catchable Target Rate this season). But, after being plagued by drops over the first two seasons of his NFL career, Johnston has posted a 100% Adjusted Catch Rate, meaning he has hauled in every single one of his targets that were deemed “catchable” with zero drops. Johnston will likely see plenty of coverage from Marshon Lattimore, but that’s not the same scary matchup as it used to be, and Lattimore’s 17.6 air yards per target is the highest among all NFL DBs. So we can all but guarantee that QJ will see multiple deep shots this Sunday.

Jaylen Waddle, MIA | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.8k | at CAR

Waddle steps in as the surefire alpha WR for the Dolphins with Tyreek Hill done for the season. The Panthers have been surprisingly stingy against WRs, allowing the 2nd-fewest FPPG to the position. But Waddle could easily see 10+ targets in this game, and volume reigns supreme. The Panthers do rank a subpar 20th in WR1 DVOA, which is an underlying metric, so there’s potential for regression for this Carolina secondary regarding their ability to suppress WR production.

Michael Pittman Jr., IND | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.9k | vs. LV

Pittman has found the endzone in 3/4 games this season and leads the team with a solid 24.4% Target%. Whether you’re stacking him with QB Daniel Jones or not, Pittman looks like a nice, affordable option against a Raiders defense that has allowed the 6th most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Pittman: 74% PerimeterRoute%) and the 3rd most FPPG to WRs overall.

Darius Slayton, NYG | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.4k | at NO

In the wake of the season-ending Malik Nabers injury, Darius Slayton will be forced into a larger role. Wan’Dale Robinson (DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.1k) may end up as the Giants WR who sees the most target volume, but that is still to be determined since we’ve only seen one full game out of new QB Jaxson Dart. Slayton has played 92% of the snaps so far this season, and that was with Nabers playing at least a 92% snap% for the first three games. He should come close to a 100% snap% in games for the foreseeable future. Slayton has run nearly 80% of his routes on the outside, and the Saints have allowed the 3rd-most FPPG to perimeter WRs, so there are zero matchup concerns.

Elic Ayomanor, TEN | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.2k | at ARI

This is an ugly Titans offense, but it’s been very much a WR1-A and WR1-B situation between rookie Elic Ayomanor and Calvin Ridley. Ayomanor (25 targets) has one more target than Ridley (24) and outpaces him in AirYard% (38.2% to 30.1%). If the volume leans toward Ayomanor again this Sunday, then he may pay off as a nice value option as the Cardinals have allowed the 2nd-most YPG (90.1) to WR1s this season, as well as the 10th-most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Ayomanor: 89% PerimeterRoute%). It’s been a rough start for No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward and the Titans, but, as +7.5 underdogs, things should lean pass-heavy again for this offense, which would stand to benefit Ayomanor.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jake Ferguson, DAL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6k | at NYJ

Over the last three weeks, Ferguson has led all TEs in PPR FPPG (18.3), and his 24.8% Target% trails only Trey McBride (26.3% Target%). He should operate as the No. 2 option behind George Pickens while WR CeeDee Lamb remains out, and the Jets represent a strong matchup, ranking 24th in TE DVOA.

Darren Waller, MIA | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.2k | at CAR

Waller made an instant impact in his Dolphins debut last week as he was the receiving end of both of Tua Tagovailoa’s TD passes. He only saw three total targets, but he also only played 28% of the snaps. Waller’s workload was predictably limited after he returned from a fakeout retirement (didn’t play all of 2024) and started the season dealing with a hip issue. But his role should continue to grow as the season progresses, and one would assume he’d be another beneficiary of the Tyreek Hill injury. Dating back to last season, the Panthers have steadily struggled against TEs. They head into this game ranking dead last in TE DVOA, and they’ve allowed the 2nd-most YPG (71.3) to the position.

Tommy Tremble, CAR | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.6k | vs. MIA

We’ll go to the other side of this game with our cheap TE. With Ja’Tavion Sanders (ankle) out last week, Tremble went on to set season-highs in snap rate (75%), targets (8), receptions (5), and yards (42) while also securing a touchdown. Sanders will miss another game this week, so Tremble will once again fill in as the top tight end. Like their counterpart in this game, Miami has also been awful versus the tight end position, ranking 30th in TE DVOA while allowing the most YPG (75.5) and 3rd-most FPPG.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Detroit Lions | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5k | at CIN

Mid-Range D/ST: Indianapolis Colts | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.7k | vs. LV

Value D/ST: Houston Texans | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.6k | at BAL

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!