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Main Slate Rundown 📝

It’s time to dive into week five, baby! Between the first week of byes (Browns, Chargers, Seahawks, Bucs) and an early morning London game (Jags vs. Bills), this Sunday’s main slate will be whittled down to 10 games. Honestly, that’s perfectly fine with me, and I love how the time slots shake out with six 1:00 ET kickoffs and four games kicking off in the 4 o’clock ET window. And, to top it all off, once the dust has settled on the main slate, we’ll have a stellar Sunday Night Football nightcap with the Cowboys facing off with the 49ers in San Francisco. I’ve had my gripes with the scheduling for the first few weeks of the season, but I’ll give a big ‘W’ to the schedule makers this week. Let’s get set for another profitable week of NFL DFS! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

NO @ NE: Breezy with 10-15 mph sustained winds and gusts hitting 20+ mph.

BAL @ PIT: Chance for some afternoon rain. 10-15 mph winds with 25+ mph gusts. No surprise seeing a slate-low 37.5 over/under here.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8k | vs. NYG

The lone double-digit spread of the week can be found here, with the Dolphins (-12.5) hosting the hapless New York Giants. A blowout could be a reasonable concern, but Tua Tagovailoa and the NFL’s best offense through four weeks should feast before having to potentially take their foot off the gas. Tua has completed 71.3% of his passes this season (ranks 4th) and leads the NFL in yards per attempt (9.6) and yards per completion (13.5) while ranking second in QBR (114.4). He should have no issues picking apart a Giants secondary that ranks 29th in pass DVOA and has an NFL-low four sacks on the season despite blitzing at the second-highest rate (49.6% blitz%).

CJ Stroud, HOU | DK: $6k, FD: $7.2k | @ ATL

It’s too early to crown CJ Stroud a stud just four games into his NFL career, but the Texans’ No. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft is certainly looking like a massive hit. The Texans have not shied away from letting Stroud sling it -- the rookie is averaging 37.8 pass attempts/gm, ranks 5th with 1,212 yards passing, and ranks second behind only Tua Tagovailoa in yards per completion (12.9). Both teams in the game rank inside the top 11 in terms of offensive pace so we can expect plenty of play volume in a sneaky-good DFS environment. Folks may shy away from Stroud based on the fact that the Falcons are only allowing 186.8 pass YPG to QBs this season. However, the Falcons' defense is far from elite and checks in at 27th in pass DVOA. Despite likely being underpriced by a few hundred bucks on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Stroud is going to continue to fly under the radar in terms of DFS ownership. Love the upside for the price, and we can expect Stroud to be under 10% owned.

Matthew Stafford, LAR | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.8k | vs. PHI

Stafford still has not passed for multiple touchdowns in any game this season but he gets Cooper Kupp back in the mix this week and he has had four games to build plenty of rapport with guys like Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell. This also sets up as a match-up where the Rams will have no choice but to lean on Stafford and the passing game. The Eagles boast one of the fiercest defensive fronts and have ranked 1st in rush DVOA. However, they’re much more vulnerable against the pass, ranking 17th in pass DVOA. The Eagles have surrendered the 4th most passing TDs (9), 7th most passing yards (1,043), and allow the 7th most FPPG to opposing QBs. This match-up is one of two games on the slate with a 50+ point total and the Rams step in as four-point home underdogs. Stafford is cheap, likely won’t be highly owned, has some clear-cut stack options, and is in a prime spot to return value.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Bijan Robinson, ATL | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. HOU

Anyone who caught a Texas Longhorns game in the last couple of years could see that Bijan Robinson was going to eventually be a stud at the NFL level one day. Well, we’re now living in that timeline. Bijan has a top-10 O-Line in front of him and ranks 3rd among NFL running backs in yards before contact per attempt (4.2). He also ranks 1st on the team with a 19.1% target share, which is a supremely rare feat for an NFL running back. This heavily run-oriented Falcons offense is simply tailor-made for a guy like Bijan Robinson to succeed and put up strong fantasy scores. Robinson has played his two highest snap% of the season in the last two weeks and he has out-snapped RB Tyler Allgeier 98 to 35. We can expect another quality performance out of Bijan against a Texans defense that ranks 28th in rush DVOA and has allowed the 8th most FPPG to RBs.

David Montgomery, DET | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CAR

Plenty of attention will fall on David Montgomery following his monstrous 32-carry, 121-yard, three-touchdown performance against the Packers last Thursday. Monty also brought in a couple of catches for 20 additional yards. Despite drafting Jahmyr Gibbs with the 12th overall pick of this year’s draft, Montgomery has been the clear Lions lead back and his 18 redzone rushes lead all RBs on this slate, even though Montgomery missed week three’s action with a thigh injury. Gibbs (hamstring) now heads into week five with a “doubtful” designation, and it looks like the Lions will also be without top receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen/doubtful), potentially opening the door for an even more certain heavy Montgomery workload. It’s a dream match-up against the Panthers who rank dead last in rush DVOA and have surrendered the 5th most FPPG to RBs. The Lions are also hefty -9.5 point home favorites.

De’Von Achane, MIA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.5k | vs. NYG

Dolphins players will be sneaky by no means on Sunday, but this offense is just too lethal at every level to avoid. Achane is the shiny new weapon everyone will have their eye on again this week, and he would be my preferred Dolphins RB, but Raheem Mostert (DK: $6.2k, FD: $8k) still carries some GPP appeal. Achane has seen his snap% progressively increase each week this season (0%, 10%, 41%, and 60%), though the last two games consisting of a blowout win and a blowout loss will leave us guessing how Achane’s snap share will look in a “normal” competitive game. That said, we may not see a competitive game against a dreadful Giants team this week and Achane could again see some sizable run. Achane’s combination of speed and athleticism is undeniable and he leads all NFL RBs, by a wide margin, in both yards before contact per attempt (7.3) and yards after contact per attempt (4.2). His current DFS prices aren’t too extreme just yet, but if he continues to showcase the same sort of game-breaking ability that he has put on display in the last two weeks, he’ll quickly ascend the weekly RB rankings.

Isiah Pacheco, KC | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.6k | @ MIN

One word that everyone uses with Pacheco’s running style is “violent” and I can think of no better way to put it myself. The second-year RB just has no regard for human life, neither his nor his opponent’s. Patrick Mahomes is still Patrick Mahomes, but through four games, he has yet to establish any real connection with this ragtag group of Chiefs WRs… and, though he may try, he can’t throw it to Travis Kelce on every dropback. From a game script standpoint, I could see the Chiefs placing a focus on their run game in order to keep a dangerous Vikings offense off of the field and just look to get out of Minnesota with a road victory. Pacheco played a season-high 60% snap% last week while Clyde Edwards-Helaire saw a season-low 9% snap%. Jerick McKinnon (31% snap% Week 4) will still mix in on passing downs, but Pacheco seems to be separating himself as the clear lead back on early downs.

Breece Hall, NYJ | DK: $5,4k, FD: $6.5k | @ DEN

What happens when a stoppable force meets a movable object? I suppose we’ll find out in the Jets at Broncos match-up. In their defense, Zach Wilson and the Jets offense looked competent against the Chiefs in week four. Meanwhile, the Broncos defense continues to look like a dumpster fire. Through four games, the Broncos are allowing the most PPG (37.5), rank dead last in total DVOA, dead last in pass DVOA, and 31st in rush DVOA. Perhaps it’s some coach speak or some sort of evil mind games played on us DFS players, but Jets HC Robert Selah announced this week that RB Breece Hall has “no pitch count anymore.” Hall has faced some snap limitations as he worked back to full speed following an ACL tear last season and has yet to play more than a 49% snap% in any game this year. He’s clearly been the better runner compared to Dalvin Cook, who is averaging just 2.5 YPC on the season versus Hall’s 6.6 YPC. The Jets do not have a great O-line but Hall’s field vision and burst will give him some upside against this terrible Broncos defensive front. Also, if you want to ride a narrative, this is the same field that Hall tore his ACL on in 2022 so… revenge? Why not?

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyreek Hill, MIA | DK: $9k, FD: $9.4k | vs. NYG

We’ve done a spotlight on a Dolphins player at every position thus far, so why stop now? No one needs me to tell them that Tyreek Hill is an elite play, but perhaps we see some folks avoid him following a fairly quiet three-catch, 58-yard performance against the Bills in week four. The Bills are one of the best all-around defenses in the NFL… the Giants are not. As noted in Tua’s write-up, the Giants check in at 29th in pass DVOA. Hill will line up across from rookie corner Deonte Banks quite a bit in this game, which represents an excellent match-up for Hill. I don’t think it’s completely out of the realm of possibilities that the Giants' offense could make this game interesting and vaguely competitive, especially if they get RB Saquon Barkley (ankle/questionable) back in the fold. So, if the Dolphins have to stay aggressive into the fourth quarter, it’ll be another spot where Tyreek could potentially break the slate.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.7k | @ ARI

The needle on the “concern meter” is well in the red with this Bengals offense but the hope is that Joe Burrow can continue to get closer to 100% with that lingering calf injury and start slinging it like we’re used to seeing out of him. Chase is still commanding an elite target share and has 24 targets in the last two weeks. No touchdowns on the season just yet, and Burrow has thrown only two TDs all season, but with such a heavy target share, the touchdowns will come in time. It’s a nice landing spot for a struggling offense to get on track as the Cardinals check in at 30th in pass DVOA and 30th in total DVOA. Chase makes for an intriguing tournament option at the very least.

Nico Collins, HOU | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7k | @ ATL

Nico Collins has always been a high-end NFL receiver who possesses prototypical “big WR” size at 6’4” and 215 lbs. Unfortunately, the third-year player has dealt with some abysmal QB play… until CJ Stroud entered the building. With Stroud at the helm, Collins has put up 428 yards receiving (6th in NFL) and his 19.5 yards per reception is 4th among NFL WRs. As touched on in CJ Stroud’s write-up, the Falcons have not surrendered much yardage through the air this season, but their 27th-ranked pass DVOA suggests some regression is due. The Texans have picked up 76.3% of their total yards through the air (3rd most) and we could see another big day from Nico Collins and this Houston passing game.

Marquise Brown, ARI | DK: $5k, FD: $6.4k | vs. CIN

It’s not a perfect match-up against a middling Bengals secondary but, over the last three weeks, Hollywood Brown has ranked 7th in the NFL in target share (29.7%) and 3rd in air yard% (46.5%), behind only Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill. The Cardinals' offense is not elite but they’ve been much better than most anyone expected them to be with temporary starting QB Josh Dobbs under center. Brown has been heavily targeted as of late and he’s seeing plenty of looks deep down the field. That should lead to a solid floor play with quality upside at these modest DFS price tags. Brown also averages +31.7% more FPPG in domed stadiums and the Bengals have allowed 52% more FPPG to WRs when away (last nine games).

Kalif Raymond, DET | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.8k | vs. CAR

With Amon-Ra St. Brown (abdomen/doubtful) unlikely to suit up this week, Kalif Raymond could see a significant boost in snaps as he fills in the Lions’ primary slot receiving role. When St. Brown played a season-low 74% of snaps in week two, Raymond played a season-high 42% of snaps. Raymond also isn’t viewed as strictly a guy who will see those “dink and dunk” sort of targets as he leads the Lions’ receivers with a 14.7-yard aDOT and he has caught 72.7% of his targets this season. 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams (DK: $4k, FD: $5.3k) is poised to make his season debut this week and is also a worthy flyer. But I’ll lean toward Raymond along with Josh Reynolds (DK: $4.2k, FD: $6.3k) if I’m trying to hit on Lions' receiving value.

Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG | DK: $3k, FD: $5.4k | @ MIA

This is much more of a DraftKings value play where Wan’Dale Robinson is pinned with a stone minimum $3,000 salary and can benefit from full PPR scoring. After sustaining a torn ACL in 2022, Robinson returned to NFL action in week three. Though he played just 11 snaps in his season debut, he garnered five targets. His snaps rocketed up to 48 (64% snap%) last week, which ranked second among Giants WRs, and he commanded an additional six targets. Robinson is a short aDOT receiver but that leads to a high catch rate and he’s the type of player who can pick up decent yardage after the catch. A handful of catches for 40-60 yards may be all we get out of Robinson, but that’s some decent value given his DK salary and would open up ample lineup flexibility.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyler Conklin, NYJ | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.8k | @ DEN

I’m not necessarily feeling the tight end spend up this week so I won’t be forcing a pricey TE play just for the sake of it. But, hey, if you’re liking the premiere TE plays, feel free to roll out some Kelce or Hockenson. Instead, we’ll start here with Conklin, who has been Zach Wilson’s second-most targeted receiver behind WR Garrett Wilson this season. If we’re expecting good things from this Jets offense against an awful Broncos defense, then Conklin should certainly play a factor. The Broncos have given up the 6th most receiving yards to TEs this season and the 7th most FPPG. It’s a good spot for Conklin to haul in a handful of catches and possibly bring in his first TD of the season.

Jonnu Smith, ATL | DK: $2.9k, FD: $5k | vs. HOU

In theory, Kyle Pitts exists… I think, but it’s been Jonnu Smith who has been the more productive Falcons tight end. In his three games, Smith is averaging 6.7 targets/gm, 5.0 receptions/gm, and 59.7 receiving YPG. No one should be leaping at the opportunity to roster any piece of this Falcons “passing attack” but Smith is clearly one of the top receiving targets and doesn’t need a huge game to return value, especially on DraftKings at his sub-$3k price point.

Darnell Washington, PIT | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.5k | vs. BAL

No Pat Freiermuth (hamstring/out) this week so rookie Darnell Washington will have a chance to be an involved Steelers receiver. Windy conditions in this game may limit both downfield passing attacks so expect a solid volume of short-to-intermediate passes, where tight ends typically operate. Washington is a mammoth 6’7” 265 lb target who could luck his way into a touchdown reception along with a handful of targets. He could be a dud, but it’s a fairly low-risk investment with decent fantasy point-per-dollar potential.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Miami Dolphins | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.9k | vs. NYG

Value D/ST: Indianapolis Colts | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. TEN

Contrarian D/ST: Pittsburgh Steelers | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. BAL

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Justin Jefferson

QB + WR/TE + Opp RB (Game Stack)

CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, Bijan Robinson

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp

Value QB/WR/TE Double Stack

Zach Wilson, Garrett Wilson, Tyler Conklin

Full Team Stack - QB/WR-or-TE/RB

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR/TE + Opp WR

Joshua Dobbs, Marquise Brown, Ja’Marr Chase

Touchdown Call 🏈

David Montgomery, DET | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CAR

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Isiah Pacheco MORE than 56.5 Rush Yards

Marquise Brown MORE than 55.5 Receiving Yards

🆕 Props AI 🆕

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!