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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Week five has arrived! With bye weeks kicking in, and with the London game being sectioned off for Sunday morning, we’ll be facing the smallest Sunday main slate to date. There is still plenty of action on the board and endless scenarios to consider. On DraftKings, we’ll be tackling a 10-game main slate -- on FanDuel, an 11-game main slate with the inclusion of the DAL/PIT SNF game. Let’s waste no time and jump right into this Sunday’s action! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• BAL @ CIN (1:00 ET, 49.0 O/U): Low-end chance of rain, mainly late-game. 10-15 mph winds.

• IND @ JAX (1:00 ET, 46.0 O/U): Scattered showers possible throughout the afternoon.

• CAR @ CHI (1:00 ET, 41.0 O/U): Winds around 15 mph. These could impact longer throws and FG attempts, but as of now, nothing is super worrisome.

• DAL @ PIT (8:20 ET, 43.5 O/U): Moderate chance for some scattered showers.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Lamar Jackson, BAL | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k | at CIN

Most QB ownership will likely be focused on the mid-range this week, but if you want to spend up to be somewhat contrarian, reigning MVP Lamar Jackson is a tempting play. The ceiling is just massive thanks to his rushing ability -- as a QB, Jackson is 9th in the NFL with 308 rushing yards and he’s easily #1 in yards per carry (7.5). We saw a dual-threat QB carve up this Bengals defense a couple of weeks ago when Jayden Daniels went off for 28.06 FP. We never know what the passing volume will look like for Jackson -- he has attempted as many as 41 passes in a game this season (Wk1 @ KC) and as few as 15 (Wk3 @ DAL). But, given the potential for a high-scoring back-and-forth game, as the total (49 O/U) and spread (BAL -2) would suggest, Jackson could be poised to air it out this Sunday while also continuing to have a major impact on the ground.

Brock Purdy, SF | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.7k | vs. ARI

As long as George Kittle (ribs/questionable) suits up this week, that will mean Purdy’s entire receiving WR/TE receiving corps is intact and ready to face a Cardinals defense that ranks 29th in pass DVOA. Purdy is averaging 282.5 pass YPG (3rd) and 13.5 yards/completions (2nd) through four games, and he’s had ample success in three previous starts versus Arizona, posting an 8:0 TD:INT ratio along with a rushing TD.

Joe Flacco, IND | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.8k | at JAX

Anthony Richardson (oblique) has been downgraded to “doubtful” for Sunday’s game, so old man Joe Flacco looks to be in line for a spot start. Flacco stepped in for five starts with the Browns last season and was superb from a DFS standpoint as he averaged 323.2 pass YPG, 13.1 yards/completion, and totaled 13 TDs. With RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle) already ruled out, the Colts may lean heavily on the pass this week, and it’d be a great spot to do it. The Jags rank dead last in pass DVOA and have allowed the MOST adjusted fantasy points to QBs this season.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jordan Mason, SF | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8.7k | vs. ARI

This should be a big week for the 49ers offense, and that is reflected in their slate-leading 28.5 implied team total. Jordan Mason has been a certified workhorse in the absence of CMC and his 91 carries lead the NFL by a fairly wide margin. Despite facing 8+ defenders in the box on an NFL-high 42.9% of his rush attempts (via Next Gen Stats), Mason has managed to rack up 120 rush yards over expected, which is 3rd in the NFL behind only Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley. Opposing RBs have had no issues against this Cardinals run defense that has allowed the 4th most FPPG to the position.

Josh Jacobs, GB | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7k | at LAR

If you want to pivot off of the chalky Packers passing attack, rolling with Josh Jacobs would be the logical way to do that. Perhaps with those injuries to a couple of their starting receivers, the Packers will be content with giving Jacobs 25+ touches against a depleted Rams defense that ranks 31st in rush DVOA and has allowed the 5th most FPPG to RBs. Jacobs was scripted out of last week’s game as QB Jordan Love went on to throw 54 passes, and that doesn’t seem to be a likely scenario this week. Jacobs has also gone without a touchdown through four games but given his heavy involvement in the red zone, he is a good bet to crack the endzone this week.

Jerome Ford, CLE | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.3k | at WAS

Ford has not had more than a dozen carries in a game this season, but he has logged at least a 75% snap% in 3-of-4 games while also being active as a receiver out of the backfield. Ford’s 20 targets are tied for 3rd among NFL RBs, and he already has a pair of seven target games. But there is optimism that this could be Ford’s most productive game on the ground to date as Washington has allowed a 5.4 YPC average to RBs this season while ranking 28th in rush DVOA.

Alexander Mattison, LV | DK: $5.2k, FD: $5.8k | at DEN

Not that he’s been overly effective as the Raiders’ lead back this season, but Zamir White (groin) will be sitting out this week which will give Mattison a chance to seize the lead role if he impresses. Mattison has already looked like the better RB, averaging 5.1 YPC and 11.4 YPR -- compared to White’s 3.1 YPC and 3.2 YPR. Mattison has also found the endzone three times (2 rush TDs/1 rec TD) despite playing a 41% snap% up to this point. Denver (5th in rush DVOA) has been tough against RBs, but Mattison should face little competition for touches from the likes of Ameer Abdullah and Dylan Laube, so we’ll take some shots on a potential workhorse RB at these price points.

Antonio Gibson, NE | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.4k | vs. MIA

Due to fumbling issues for Rhamondre Stevenson (fumbled in every game this season), Antonio Gibson will be listed as the Patriots’ starting RB this week. Gibson has averaged a respectable 5.3 YPC (11th in NFL) and an excellent 3.0 YAC/attempt (3rd in NFL). He has also caught 7-of-8 targets for 82 yards (11.7 YPR). Stevenson isn’t going to be completely phased out, but if Gibson can garner around 15-20 touches, that will put him in a real position to return some nice value. This is a winnable game for the Patriots (one-point home underdogs) and the Dolphins have allowed the 6th most FPPG to RBs while ranking 26th in rush DVOA.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG | DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.8k | at SEA

Here is another “next man up” situation with Giants RB1 Devin Singletary (groin) listed as doubtful this week. Tracy will now be the presumed lead back and his low DFS price points open up a ton of roster flexibility. He is a former WR turned RB and, naturally, is a better pass-catching RB than he is a between-the-tackles runner. With stud rookie WR Malik Nabers (concussion) out, there will be extra targets to go around and Tracy should receive a few of those. I expect he’ll be a tad chalky, likely around 20% ownership, but if the volume is there, specifically the RB targets, then it won’t take a huge day for Tracy to lobby for a spot as an optimal play when it’s all said and done.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $8k, FD: $9.3k | vs. BAL

Chase should be in play for most slates this season as he simply owns massive slate-breaking upside. I doubt he exceeds 10% ownership and the match-up is better than most would assume. The Ravens have allowed 87.2 YPG to WR1s this season, 3rd most in NFL.

DK Metcalf, SEA | DK: $7k, FD: $8.2k | vs. NYG

Under a new coaching regime, the Seahawks have aired it out a ton this season, ranking 4th in the NFL with a 64.4% pass play%. That has led to some big DK Metcalf games and the star receiver ranks 5th in the NFL in total air yards. We’ll love the match-up for Metcalf as the Giants have allowed the 4th most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Metcalf: 84% PerimeterRoute%).

Jayden Reed, GB | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.2k | at LAR

Dontayvion Wicks, GB | DK: $5k, FD: $5.9k | at LAR

As touched on elsewhere in this newsletter, the Green Bay receiver room will be thin with Romeo Doubs (suspended) and Christian Watson (ankle) both out this week (technically, Watson is still officially “doubtful” and it’d be a massive surprise if he is active). So these two Green Bay receivers are going to be popular DFS plays, but they’re also in a great spot for success.

In two games with Jordan Love starting at QB this season, Jayden Reed has hauled in 11-of-14 targets for 277 yards and two TDs (also ran for a 33-yard TD). He averaged an elite 4.0 YPRR (yards per route run) in those two games and has simply proven to be a big-time playmaker in his second NFL season.

Wicks, meanwhile, racked up a whopping 13 targets last week. He only caught five of those targets, but they went for 78 yards and two TDs. Wicks’ 36.4% catch% is awful but many of his looks have been off target. His 66.7% adjusted catch rate still isn’t great, but obviously much better than his baseline catch%. Once again, Jordan Love isn’t likely to throw it 50+ times again like he did last week, but these two WRs should be guaranteed some strong target volume. If you want to take a flier, Bo Melton (DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.3k) should slot in as the Packers’ WR3.

Amari Cooper, CLE | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.2k | at WAS

WR1s versus Washington is “a thing” so Amari Cooper gets a match-up upgrade here. The Commanders rank 31st in WR1 DVOA and have allowed 87.9 YPG to WR1s. Cooper has averaged 9.3 targets/gm this season and, though he has a poor 43.2% catch%, that has largely been the fault of accuracy issues from QB Deshaun Watson. However, Watson did show some improvements last week, completing 75% of his passes, so if he continues to stay the course, Amari Cooper could be in line for a big day.

Michael Pittman Jr., IND | DK: $6k, FD: $6.1k | at JAX

I believe most of us can agree that Joe Flacco starting at QB places the Colts WRs in a better spot than Anthony Richardson. Pittman was connecting with Richardson early last week, prior to the QB going down with a hip injury, but he also did well with Flacco in. It was easily Pittman’s best game of the season, bringing in 6-of-9 targets for 113 yards. As mentioned in Flacco’s spotlight, the Jags rank dead last in pass DVOA, and they have also surrendered the 4th most adjusted FPPG to WRs.

Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.1k | at SEA

The Giants’ target distribution has been extremely condensed with Malik Nabers (concussion/out) and Wan’Dale Robinson accounting for a whopping 66.2% Target%. Obviously, no Nabers this week so Robinson will likely be locked in for 10+ targets. Given his 4.7-yard aDOT, most of Robinson’s looks are coming on very short underneath routes, but volume is volume. He’ll make more sense on DraftKings given the full PPR scoring format.

Tutu Atwell, LAR | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.6k | vs. GB

Jordan Whittington, LAR | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.4k | vs. GB

The weekly Rams WR carousel has been tough to figure out, and it also hasn’t produced much in the way of big games, but it would seem that Atwell and Whittington may be the top two targets in this offense for the time being. Both guys played heavy snaps last week -- Atwell 90% snap%, Whittington 97% snap%. This resulted in two serviceable receiving lines -- Atwell 4-82-0 on six targets, Whittington 6-62-0 on eight targets. I’m probably a bit higher on Whittington than Atwell, but if you need a cheap WR, both guys are viable options.

Tre Tucker, LV | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.8k | at DEN

Tucker was a popular value play last week, and he paid off nicely by catching 5-of-6 targets for 41 yards, and he found the endzone on a three-yard rush. It was a day where QB Gardner Minshew only attempted 24 passes after averaging 33 pass att/gm over the first three weeks. Davante Adams (hamstring) is out once again, and with plenty of buzz on a potential trade looming, he may have already played his final game in a Raiders uniform. Jakobi Meyers saw 10 targets last week but he should be getting the Pat Surtain II shadow treatment when he runs routes on the perimeter, so the match-up would seemingly favor Tre Tucker as long as the Broncos view him as the WR2. Denver has allowed the 9th most YPG to opposing WR2s this season.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

George Kittle, SF | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7k | vs. ARI

We’ll of course have to make sure Kittle (ribs/questionable) is active but, after logging a limited practice on Friday, he at least seems to be trending in the right direction to suit up on Sunday. The tight end position has been more of a crapshoot this season than I seem to recall in recent years, but Kittle always brings big positional upside to the table, and he’s very likely to be < 10% owned. The 49ers should put up plenty of yards and points this week and Kittle should contribute a good portion of that production… if he’s active.

Tucker Kraft, GB | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.3k | at LAR

Kraft is likely the chalk TE of the week. History tells us that cheap TE chalk is the worst chalk there is, but the opportunity is there for Kraft based on the Packers’ depleted WR corps. I probably won’t have much/any Kraft in GPPs, but he’s fine for cash games.

Erick All Jr., CIN | DK: $2.7k, FD: $4.4k | vs. BAL

The Bengals have played as many as four TEs in a single game this season and Tanner Hudson is expected back in action for the first time since week one. So it’s risky to roll with any of ‘em, but rookie Erick All Jr. did log a season-high 60% snap% last week and he has proven to be a sure-handed receiver, catching 100% of his 12 targets over the last three games. He’ll be a preferred punt play on DraftKings but if All can bring in another handful of receptions and luckboxes a TD, we’ll be thrilled with that result. Baltimore has allowed the 2nd most adjusted FPPG to TEs this season.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Seattle Seahawks | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.8k | vs. NYG

Mid-Range D/ST: Denver Broncos | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4k | vs. LV

Value D/ST: Carolina Panthers | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.1k | at CHI

Contrarian D/ST: New England Patriots | DK: $2.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. MIA

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Marvin Harrison Jr.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Ja’Marr Chase

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (FanDuel Main Slate Only SNF Game Stack)

Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Antonio Gibson + Pats D/ST

Full Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Brock Purdy, George Kittle, Jordan Mason

Value Double Stack | Cheap QB + Two Pass Catchers

Joe Flacco, Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp WR (From a low O/U game)

Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper, Terry McLaurin

Sunday Night Football Showdown Cheat Sheet

Dallas Cowboys at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) | 44.0 O/U

Cowboys: 20.5 Implied Points | Steelers: 23.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: [PIT] QB Russell Wilson - Questionable, [DAL] WR Brandin Cooks - OUT/IR, [PIT] RB Jaylen Warren - OUT, [PIT] RB Cordarrelle Patterson - OUT, [PIT] TE Mycole Pruitt - OUT

Score Prediction: Cowboys - 23, Steelers - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Cowboys, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Steelers

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!