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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Week six arrives with another intriguing Sunday slate! With four teams on bye (KC, LAR, MIA, MIN) and the primetime/London games accounted for, that will leave us with a 10-game (DraftKings)/11-game (FanDuel) main slate! As usual, the SNF game (CIN @ NYG) will only be included on the FanDuel main slate. Some tight games are expected this week, with just one game (CLE @ PHI -9.5) owning a spread greater than 6.5 points! So strap in for another crazy NFL Sunday! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• HOU @ NE (1:00 ET, 37.5 O/U): Scattered showers possible.

• IND @ TEN (1:00 ET, 43.0 O/U): 10-15 mph winds. Should only affect long FGs and deep throws slightly.

• CLE @ PHI (1:00 ET, 42.5 O/U): 10-15 mph winds.

• ARI @ GB (1:00 ET, 47.5 O/U): Scattered showers possible. Overcast w/ chilly temps in the 40s. Football weather is coming…

• CIN @ NYG (8:20 ET, 47.0 O/U): > FanDuel Main Slate Only < Scattered showers possible.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jayden Daniels, WAS | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.7k | at BAL

The Commanders enter this game as 6.5-point road ‘dogs. Starting RB Brian Robinson Jr. (knee) is also questionable to play after failing to record a single practice rep this week. So more offensive responsibility than usual may be placed on the arm AND legs of star rookie Jayden Daniels, who is completing 77.1% of his passes and tacking on 60.0 rush YPG through his first five NFL games. There is no real reason to fear this Ravens defense that has allowed the 7th most adjusted FP to QBs and just gave up nearly 400 yards and 5 TDs to Joe Burrow in week five.

Jordan Love, GB | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.5k | vs. ARI

Love was a popular play last week against the Rams but put up a rather pedestrian stat line and fantasy score. With more receiving weapons available and another tantalizing match-up, it may not be a bad idea to test the waters with him once again in his second home start of the season. In his first home start of the season, while it did include three INTs (and 54 pass attempts), Love threw for 389 yards and four TDs against what has been a very tough Vikings defense. He should fare very well against a Cardinals defense that checks in at 29th in pass DVOA and has forced just a 15.9% pressure% (6th lowest). The Cardinals have also blitzed at a low 18.3% rate (5th lowest). So, with a top-10 O-line in front of him, Love should have plenty of time in the pocket to pick apart this porous Arizona secondary.

Spencer Rattler, NO | DK: $4k, FD: $6k | vs. TB

Derek Carr (oblique/out) could be sidelined for multiple weeks and, instead of using backup QB Jake Haener as a gap starter, the Saints announced that they will be starting rookie fifth-round QB Spencer Rattler. The leash may be fairly short for Rattler, but he does possess the better all-around skillset (over Haener) that you want out of an NFL QB and he flashed some positive play during the preseason. But the obvious draw here are his QB minimum DFS salaries, and he’s particularly tempting on DraftKings at just $4,000. You couldn’t ask for a much better spot for Rattler as the Saints will be at home against the Bucs, who have allowed the 2nd most adjusted FP to QBs this season and just got shredded for 500+ yards by Kirk Cousins in week five. Rookie QB Bo Nix was also able to score 19.34 FP against the Bucs back in week three so if Rattler puts up a similar result, we’d be thrilled at these rock-bottom salaries. The amount of lineup construction possibilities simply explodes by using such a cheap QB -- obviously, there’s no guarantee it will pay off, but Rattler is worth some GPP shares.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Joe Burrow, CIN | DK: N/A, FD: $8.1k | at NYG

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Derrick Henry, BAL | DK: $8k, FD: $9.1k | vs. WAS

Pretty straightforward stud play here. King Henry has not missed a beat in his age 30 season, averaging an NFL-best 114.4 rush YPG with seven total TDs (at least one TD in every game this season). Washington owns a below-average run defense and Henry will pretty easily be the best RB they’ve gone up against thus far. I also love the idea of using Henry as a premium bring-back game stack play in Jayden Daniels lineups.

Bijan Robinson, ATL | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.5k | at CAR

Robinson is just the RB24 in fantasy scoring this season and if he can’t get things going in this spot, well, perhaps it’s just time to put the thought of playing him in DFS on ice for a while. The Panthers have allowed the most adjusted FP to RBs this season, the most PPG (33.0), and the Falcons step in as six-point road favorites, meaning an RB-heavy script could be in order. I’m more tempted by Bijan on DraftKings, given his season-low $6.6k salary, but I believe he represents a strong leverage play no matter which DFS site you prefer. He’s currently projected at < 10% on both DK and FD.

Tony Pollard, TEN | DK: $6k, FD: $7k | vs. IND

We should be cautiously optimistic about the Titans' offense this week as they take on a poor Colts defense that has struggled at every level. The Colts have surrendered the second-most rush yards this season and have allowed the 6th most adjusted FP to RBs. Furthermore, the Colts have faced the 8th highest opponent RunPlay%, and have allowed +50% more FPPG to RBs on the road (last nine games). Pollard leads all qualified NFL rushers with 6.1 rush attempts per broken tackle and is coming off of a season-high 24 touches prior to their week five bye where he totaled 108 yards and a TD. He should be fresh, following the bye, and in line for another high-volume day. I expect he’ll be very popular on this slate but he is a standout play out of the mid-range.

Austin Ekeler, WAS | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.7k | at BAL

Jeremy McNichols, WAS | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5k | at BAL

**Only if Brian Robinson Jr. (knee/questionable) is out**

Ekeler has standalone value in full PPR (DraftKings) formats, regardless of Robinson’s status, but he’d need B-Rob to be out to hit a ceiling game. Even if Robinson sits, I’m not sure if Ekeler would see a significant uptick in carries, despite his efficient 7.9 YPC average on 19 carries this season, but he would probably see some additional targets and could even be viewed as a stack piece with QB Jayden Daniels.

McNichols has been a garbage time king the last two weeks, taking 15 carries for 112 yards (7.0 YPC) and three TDs. My guess is that he would be the guy to handle most of the early down carries (if no B-Rob). Both should be viewed as extreme leverage plays as the Ravens have been stout against the run (3rd in rush DVOA, 5th fewest FPPG allowed to RBs), but they also haven’t faced a tough gauntlet of RBs up to this point.

Bucky Irving, TB | DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.7k | at NO

Richard White (foot) is officially doubtful, so it’s looking like standout rookie RB Bucky Irving’s first chance to operate as a featured back. Among qualified NFL RBs, Irving is 7th in YPC (5.6), 7th in YBC/attempt, and 13th in YAC/attempt. The Saints are a fairly solid run defense (12th in rush DVOA), but if Irving flirts with 20 touches, based on his excellent efficiency up to this point, he should be among the strongest value RBs on the slate (and much safer than the aforementioned Washington RBs, assuming Robinson is out).

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Stefon Diggs, HOU | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8k | at NE

Tank Dell, HOU | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.7k | at NE

Losing the NFL’s receiving leader, Nico Collins, to the IR is clearly a major blow but, fortunately for the Texans, they have one of, if not THE, best duo of No. 2/No.3 WRs in Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell. Diggs has been fairly solid this season even while sharing the field with Collins, although he works more on short-to-intermediate/underneath routes with an aDOT of 7.1 yards. Still, that leads to plenty of high-percentage targets and the overall volume should increase for Diggs. Dell has not been incredibly involved up to this point, averaging only 5.3 targets/gm resulting in 13 receptions for 137 yards and no TDs across four games (34.3 YPG). But we’ve seen Dell rip off some monster games with CJ Stroud last season when both guys were rookies. Dell also profiles as a much more similar WR to Nico Collins and will handle most of his routes out on the perimeter. For a total flier, you could consider Xavier Hutchinson (DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.9k) who came in following the Collins injury and ended up playing 71% of the snaps last week while catching 2-of-3 targets for 31 yards. It’s not a bad match-up either as the Pats have allowed the 6th most FPPG to WRs over their last four games.

Chris Godwin, TB | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.5k | at NO

We’ve got one of the funniest NFL storylines to look out for this week with Bucs WR Mike Evans facing off with Saints CB Marshon Lattimore. These two guys hate each other, which has often resulted in fists being thrown at previous meetings. While Evans is among the best WRs in the league, Lattimore has historically owned the upper hand in this match-up -- feel free to view Evans’ game logs against the Saints since Lattimore was drafted by New Orleans in 2017… they’re generally bad, or at least far below his standard receiving lines. Of course, we can’t guarantee that Evans will lose the battle to Lattimore once again, but we should upgrade Chris Godwin and place him firmly on the DFS radar. The Saints rank 1st in WR1 DVOA but are a middling 18th in WR2 DVOA. Godwin has been as reliable as ever, catching 80% of his targets on a quality 26.1% Target%.

Terry McLaurin, WAS | DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.8k | at BAL

WR1s have had plenty of success against the Ravens this season. Most recently, Ja’Marr Chase exploded for a 10-193-2 receiving line against them in week five, but guys like Davante Adams (Wk2: 9-110-1) and Rashee Rice (Wk1: 7-103-0) have flourished in the match-up as well. Overall, WR1s are averaging a whopping 102.3 YPG against Baltimore, which is easily the highest mark in the NFL. After a slow start to the season, Scary Terry has shown a real connection with Jayden Daniels in the last few weeks and we’ll expect that to continue on Sunday.

Darnell Mooney, ATL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.5k | at CAR

Mooney had a career game in primetime last week (16-9-105-2 target/receiving line), so I do wonder if he’ll be popular from a point-chase standpoint. Nonetheless, he has rarely come off of the field this season and he surprisingly leads all WRs on this slate with a 97% snap%, playing just 11 fewer total snaps than QB Kirk Cousins (100% snap%). Mooney owns a healthy 12.3-yard aDOT on a 22.5% Target%. He has also spent most of his time on the left perimeter, which is worth mentioning given the fact that the Panthers have allowed THE most FPPG to LWRs. Last week’s game is tough to follow up but Mooney is shaping up to be a very fantasy-viable WR.

Jalen Tolbert, LAC | DK: $5k, FD: $6.1k | vs. DET

In the first game following Brandin Cooks’ placement on the IR, Jalen Tolbert led the Cowboys with 10 targets (24.4% Target%) and a massive 41.6% AirYard%, which resulted in seven receptions for 87 yards and a game-winning TD. CeeDee Lamb is still the clear alpha WR in Dallas but Tolbert should be very fantasy-relevant as the de facto WR2 while Cooks remains out. The match-up sets up well as Detroit has allowed the most adjusted FP to WRs this season and WR2s have also averaged 70.8 YPG (4th most) against them. This game owns the highest total of the week at 52.5 points with the Cowboys (+3) being slight home underdogs, so it should be a go-to game to target for DFS purposes.

Ladd McConkey, LAC | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.8k | at DEN

Denver’s Patrick Surtain II has quickly become the most feared CB in the NFL and he is a brutal match-up for any WR who draws his coverage. Fortunately, for McConkey, Surtain rarely travels into the slot (7% slot%), which is where McConkey has run nearly 70% of his routes. McConkey has already been shaping up as the Chargers top receiving weapon and he should lead the team in targets this week while Surtain spends most of his time covering the perimeter WRs, Quentin Johnston and Josh Palmer. It’s a very contrarian play as McConkey should fall well under 10% ownership but you’ll see me spotlight slot WRs or WR2s against the Broncos quite a bit this season.

Tre Tucker, LV | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.4k | vs. PIT

Disappointed last week but Tucker is still worth a flier while star WR Davante Adams (hamstring/out) remains sidelined (and likely traded in the not-so-distant future). Tucker has logged at least an 81% snap% in each of the previous three games and I don’t view the QB change from Gardner Minshew to Aidan O’Connell being a negative -- if anything, it’s perhaps a positive given Minshew’s 41.2 QBR, which ranked 28th among QBs over the first five weeks of the season. Jakobi Meyers (ankle/questionable) should still be viewed as the WR1, assuming he suits up this Sunday. But the Steelers have been stout against top wideouts, ranking 3rd in WR1 DVOA, but they check in at 23rd in WR2 DVOA.

FanDuel Main Slate Only

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: N/A, FD: $9.5k | at NYG

Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG | DK: N/A, FD: $6.3k | vs. CIN

Darius Slayton, NYG | DK: N/A, FD: $5.9k | vs. CIN

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Brock Bowers, LV | DK: $6k, FD: $6.7k | vs. PIT

No Davante Adams, maybe no Jakobi Meyers (questionable), and now TE Michael Mayer has landed on the IR. It all bodes well for Bowers, who saw a season-high 12 targets last week resulting in an 8-97-1 receiving line, including a highlight reel 57-yard leap-catch-and-run score (see tweet below). Mayer has been out for the last two games but played 48%, 62%, and 57% snap rates over the first three games -- Bowers played no more than 68% of the snaps in those three games. In the last two weeks (w/o Mayer available), Bowers is up to 81% (Wk4) and 79% (Wk5) snap rates. Not the best match-up but the Steelers check in at 20th in TE DVOA, so it’s far from brutal. As mentioned with Tre Tucker, I’m not sweating the QB change much, if at all, even though it’s not an ideal QB situation. As long as the targets are there for Bowers, I couldn’t care less who is throwing them.

Jake Ferguson, DAL | DK: $5k, FD: $6.1k | vs. DET

I’m wondering if Packers’ TE Tucker Kraft (DK: $4.8k, FD: $6k) will be the chalk TE again this week following his two TD performance. I certainly don’t hate Kraft, but Ferguson makes plenty of sense as a similarly-priced pivot. He hasn’t found the endzone (yet) this season, but he’s been consistently involved in the three games since returning from his one-week injury absence. In that three-game span, Ferguson has led the Cowboys in targets (25) and his 214 receiving yards are just 13 fewer than CeeDee Lamb. It also helps that Ferguson is back at home since he’s averaging +32.2% more FPPG in domed stadiums.

Zach Ertz, WAS | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5k | at BAL

This is probably as boring as it gets but if you’re looking for a cheaper TE, Zach Ertz is a sensible pick. Ertz is second on the team with 120 routes run this season, behind McLaurin’s 126. No other Washington receiver has run more than 74 routes. Predictably, he’s also second in Target% (18.2%) and, while he has not found the endzone yet, his RedZone Target% is up to 28.6%. Finally, we arrive at the fact that opposing tight ends have done plenty of damage against the Ravens this season, averaging 6.6 receptions/gm and 73.6 YPG.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Pittsburgh Steelers | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.9k | at LV

Mid-Range D/ST: Los Angeles Chargers | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.4k | at DEN

Value D/ST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DK: $2.6k, FD: $3.7k | at NO

Contrarian D/ST: Green Bay Packers | DK: $3.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. ARI

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, Marvin Harrison Jr.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Running Back(Game Stack)

Joe Flacco/Anthony Richardson, Josh Downs (if available), Tony Pollard

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (FanDuel Main Slate Only SNF Game Stack)

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Wan’Dale Robinson

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Zach Ertz

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Dak Prescott, Jalen Tolbert, Jake Ferguson

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Bucky Irving + Bucs D/ST

Full Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Derrick Henry

Value Double Stack | Cheap QB + Two Pass Catchers

Spencer Rattler, Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp Receiver (From a low O/U game)

Justin Fields, George Pickens, Brock Bowers

Sunday Night Football Showdown Cheat Sheet

Cincinnati Bengals (-4) at New York Giants | 47.0 O/U

Bengals: 25.3 Implied Points | Giants: 21.8 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: [NYG] WR Malik Nabers - OUT, [CIN] RB Chase Brown - Questionable, [NYG] RB Devin Singletary - Questionable, [NYG] K Graham Gano - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Bengals - 24, Giants - 17

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Bengals, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Giants, 5-1 Bengals

Sunday NFL Pick ‘Em ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Jalen Tolbert MORE than 5.5 Receiving Targets

Terry McLaurin MORE than 61.5 Receiving Yards

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!