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LineStar NFL DFS & Prop Shows w/ Tyler Wiemann

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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Week six arrives with a ten-game main slate on the docket! More gridiron chaos can likely be expected this Sunday with nine games owning a single-score spread. This is the point in the season when DFS prices tend to become more stringent, and value can be more difficult to come by. So, it’s time to really lock in and utilize all the information and tools at our disposal to find the right pieces to the puzzle. Let’s give it a shot! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report 🌦️

DAL at CAR (1:00 ET, 49.5 O/U): Rain is a possibility but the main concern is wind -- near 20 mph sustained winds and gusts that could reach upwards of 35 mph. The downfield passing and kicking games may both be affected.

LAR at BAL (1:00 ET, 44.5 O/U): Moderate chance for rain with sustained winds around 15 mph and some 25+ mph gusts. Assuming this forecast holds, we may see these weather conditions impact the game a bit.

CIN at GB (4:25 ET, 44.5 O/U): 10-15 mph winds.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jordan Love, GB | DK: $6.2k, FD: $8.3k | vs. CIN

The Packers are fresh off their bye week and head into week six with a favorable matchup at home versus the Bengals. Green Bay leads all offenses on the slate with a 29.3 implied team total, and Love has been sharp in the pocket this season, ranking 4th in the NFL with a 113.0 Passer Rating, and he’s 6th in yards per completion (11.9 YPC). Meanwhile, the Bengals have allowed the 6th-most yards per completion (10.8), they’re 27th in Pass DVOA, and they’ve surrendered the 4th-most adjusted FPPG to QBs. Green Bay (-14) is, by far, the heaviest favorite on this slate, so it’s certainly possible that Love won’t need to do much in this game. But if the newly acquired Bengals QB Joe Flacco and company can make this into a semi-competitive game, Love could end the afternoon with an excellent stat line.

Drake Maye, NE | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.8k | at NO

Maye has looked great in year two and ranks as the QB7 in fantasy scoring up to this point. The sacks have been adding up (Maye has taken 17 sacks, 10.0% Sack%), but when he has stayed upright, good things have generally happened. He is 2nd among NFL QBs with a 73.9% completion% and 6th in Passer Rating (107.8). Maye doesn’t handle many designed runs (14.8% DesignedRush%), but, when forced to scramble -- which has been semi-often -- he has shown some nice play-making ability with his legs. The Saints represent a quality matchup for Maye as they check in at 29th in Pass DVOA and have allowed the 5th-most adjusted FPPG to QBs.

Joe Flacco, CIN | DK: $4k, FD: $6.3k | at GB

This could end up being ugly, but at least on DraftKings, there is some merit in considering a min-priced Joe Flacco at $4,000. He was acquired by the Bengals just three days ago and, despite likely having a limited grasp on the playbook in such a short period of time, the veteran has already been announced as Cincy’s week six starter. It’s a rough matchup (GB: 2nd in Pass DVOA), but the Packers have forced the highest opponent PassPlay% (66.1%) and have defended against 39.3 pass attempts/gm (3rd-most). Flacco could very well chuck it 40+ times this Sunday and does have an elite WR duo at his disposal between Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. But, primarily, the stud-filled lineups that Joe Flacco allows you to make is the real draw here.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jonathan Taylor, IND | DK: $8.5k, FD: $10.2k | vs. ARI

As alluded to in the intro, DFS pricing is getting tight, and a player like Jonathan Taylor is a prime example, especially with his five-figure FanDuel price tag. But the lofty price points are warranted. Taylor is the RB1 in half-PPR FPPG and is only half-a-point (per game) behind Christian McCaffrey in full PPR scoring formats. He leads all players with 480 rush yards, and his 257 yards after contact rank 2nd behind only James Cook. Taylor’s 43.3% Touch% (percentage of a team’s total touches for a player) is also the 4th highest mark in the NFL, and he has handled a significant 28 redzone opportunities. On paper, this isn’t a cakewalk matchup as the Cardinals have allowed only 80.6 rush YPG to RBs this season and are 7th in Rush DVOA. However, they are allowing plenty of receiving production to RBs. The Colts (-7.5) are strong home favorites in this one as well, so the game script should be favorable for Taylor once again.

Josh Jacobs, GB | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.7k | vs. CIN

If you’re not drawn to the Packers' passing game this Sunday, then Jacobs also makes a ton of sense on the ground attack. He is 3rd in the NFL with a 43.9% Touch% and is averaging 22.5 touches/gm. Jacobs hasn’t been particularly efficient with all of those touches (3.3 YPC), but that could change this week. The Bengals are equally as bad against the run as they are versus the pass, ranking 26th in Rush DVOA while allowing the 2nd-most adjusted FPPG to RBs. Over their last four games, RBs are also averaging over five YPC against them.

Ashton Jeanty, LV | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8k | vs. TEN

The Raiders’ O-Line still isn’t doing Jeanty any favors -- his 1.3 yards before contact average is 43rd among 45 qualified runners. However, the good news is that Jeanty is elite after contact, ranking 4th in the NFL with 243 yards after contact, 5th in the NFL with 3.0 yards after contact per attempt. Tennessee’s run defense has also been extremely porous -- 31st in Rush DVOA, 3rd-most adjusted FPPG allowed to RBs, and 1.6 TDs/gm allowed to RBs.

Kyren Williams, LAR | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.4k | at BAL

With Baltimore down Lamar Jackson again this Sunday, the Rams (-7) head in as strong road favorites. That should lead to a heavy dose of Kyren Williams touches, who is 9th among NFL RBs with a 40.0% Touch%. Aside from Lamar Jackson, the Ravens are dealing with numerous injuries elsewhere, including on the defensive side of the ball. Their run defense has been abysmal this year, ranking 27th in Rush DVOA and allowing the most adjusted FPPG to RBs.

Rachaad White, TB | DK: $6k, FD: $6.8k | vs. SF

With Bucky Irving (shoulder) ruled out for a second consecutive week, Rachaad White gets another nod as the primary back. In an expanded role last week, White played 80% of the snaps while handling 18 touches and scoring two TDs. Admittedly, the volume wasn’t massive, but it’s very possible that White flirts with 20+ touches this week. The 49ers’ run D has been fairly middle-of-the-pack this season, and they have also allowed the 5th-most receptions/gm (5.4) to RBs, and White is a well-established receiving back.

Rico Dowdle, CAR | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.6k | vs. DAL

Dowdle erupted for 200+ yards in his expanded role last Sunday and, while expectations must be tempered, he will get a chance to show off again with Chuba Hubbard out for another game, this time against his former team. The Dallas run D isn’t quite as bad as Miami’s, which Dowdle toched a week ago, but the Cowboys are dead last in total DVOA, and they’ve allowed the 4th-most PPG (30.8) along with the 5th-most adjusted FPPG to RBs. The Panthers are only three-point underdogs at home in this game, and some very windy, potentially wet weather could lead to a negative impact on the passing game, so it’s not far-fetched to assume Dowdle could handle 20+ touches again.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9k | at JAX

JSN continues to put up elite results, and he heads into week six leading all NFL receivers with a 49.7% AirYard%, and he’s second only to Puka Nacua in receiving yards (534) and Target% (33.1%). He has spent more time playing on the perimeter this season, running roughly 75% of his routes on the outside. That’s going to be a plus in this matchup as the Jags have allowed the 2nd-most FPPG to perimeter WRs.

Emeka Egbuka, TB | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.1k | vs. SF

With another monster game in week five (7-163-1), Egbuka has built a strong early resume for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year and is the current favorite to win the award. The Bucs are down several key playmakers -- Mike Evans (out) will miss a third consecutive game, Chris Godwin (out), who made his season debut in week four, has been ruled out with a leg injury, and star RB Bucky Irving will also not be playing this week. While that will lead more defensive attention toward Egbuka, it’s also going to be a mild surprise if he doesn’t see double-digit targets in this game. The 49ers have also allowed the 9th-most YPG to opposing WR1s this season.

Stefon Diggs, NE | DK: $5.8k, FD: $5.9k | at NO

Diggs has been trending up in a big way these last couple of weeks, and, over the Pats’ previous two games, Diggs has commanded a monster 42.2% Target% (leads NFL in that span) and 52.2% AirYard%. He has brought in 16 of 19 targets for 247 yards L2Games and has been QB Drake Maye’s clear go-to option. Oddly enough, he’s not playing a ton of snaps -- just a 52% snap% on the season, and week four was his highest single-game snap share at 63%. But Diggs’ 37% target per route run is the highest among any WR on this slate, one percentage point higher than Puka Nacua, so as long as Maye continues to look his way when Diggs *is* out there, that’s all we really care about! The Saints are also 29th in Pass DVOA and dead last in WR1 DVOA, so there are no complaints to be had about the matchup.

DK Metcalf, PIT | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.2k | vs. CLE

Metcalf looks like a strong, low-owned leverage play on this slate. He had his best game of the season right before the Steelers’ week five bye, taking five receptions for 126 yards and a TD. That was also his third consecutive game scoring a touchdown. One of the more under-the-radar injury absences this week is Calvin Austin III, who will miss this game with a shoulder injury. Austin is 2nd on the team in target rate and, more importantly, he has seen a huge 48.2% AirYard%. Metcalf owns a team-leading 21.2% Target%, but he has only seen 27.4% of the AirYards, which is still a solid number. But, without Austin available, we could see more deep shots designed for Metcalf, who has a rather low 6.4-yard aDOT up to this point. The Browns have also allowed the 4th-most FPOE (fantasy points over expected) to WRs this season.

Michael Pittman Jr., IND | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.2k | vs. ARI

Pittman found the endzone for the fourth time in five games last week and, while his yardage totals have not been massive, he’s been a very steady and reliable option for QB Daniel Jones, who has been one of the more efficient NFL QBs this season (71.3% comp%, 8.6 YPA). The Cardinals have also allowed an NFL-high 98.5 YPG to opposing WR1s this season. While Pittman does not own the sort of target and airyard share that other top-flight WRs do, he does lead the team with a 23.5% Target% and 24.1% AirYard%.

Romeo Doubs, GB | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.2k | vs. CIN

While rookie Matthew Golden may continue to grow into a larger role, Romeo Doubs is the Packers’ de facto WR1 until proven otherwise. He has been the first read on 94.7% of his targets and leads all GB WRs with an 82% snap% on the season. Doubs has also commanded an excellent 30.0% RedZone Target%. His week four three-touchdown performance will be a tough act to follow, but he is a worthy, affordable WR option, especially if you’re looking for a stack piece with QB Jordan Love. Doubs should also see plenty of coverage from Cam Taylor-Britt, who has been the most targeted-against Bengals cornerback this season.

Sterling Shepard, TB | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5.1k | vs. SF

Both Tez Johnson (DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.2k) and Sterling Shepard should see expanded roles this week due to the Mike Evans and Chris Godwin injuries. Shepard will mostly run out of the slot, which is where the 49ers' secondary has been the softest this season. The 49ers have allowed the 5th-fewest FPPG to perimeter WRs, but the 8th-most FPPG to slot WRs.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jake Ferguson, DAL | DK: $5.3k, FD: $7k | at CAR

Ferguson has been turning in some outstanding performances, and he’s been a clear beneficiary of the recent CeeDee Lamb absences. Over the last four games, Ferguson has commanded a team-leading 26.3% Target%, resulting in 10.5 Targets/gm, 9.0 Receptions/gm, and 19.7 DKFP/15.2 FDFP per game. The weather in this game looks dicey with ~20 mph sustained winds, stronger gusts, and potential rain in the mix. However, that shouldn’t negatively affect Ferguson as he’s not exactly targeted downfield very often -- he owns a low 4.0-yard aDOT this season. The Panthers’ defense has also been awful at defending TEs, ranking 31st in TE DVOA and allowing the most FPPG to the position over the last four weeks.

Darren Waller, MIA | DK: $4k, FD: $6k | vs. LAC

Waller has emerged as a primary pass catcher in this Dolphins offense that will play the remainder of the season without Tyreek Hill’s services. Waller made his season debut in week four and, despite playing only 16 snaps (28% snap%), he brought in a pair of TDs. Waller doubled his snaps played to 32 last week (58% snap%) and put up another strong receiving line (5-78-1). Perhaps he gets closer to a 70-80% snap% this week, which would potentially lead to more targets and redzone usage. The Chargers have allowed the 5th fewest FPPG to TEs this season, but they’re a middling 17th in TE DVOA, so there is some likely regression due. Waller may also be used as a big-bodied WR in some formations instead of as a traditional tight end.

Hunter Long, JAX | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. SEA

If you want a total punt at the TE position this week, you could do worse than Hunter Long. With Brenton Strange (quadriceps) placed on the IR this past week, Long looks to take over as the Jags’ primary receiving TE. Long has a couple of touchdowns already this season, despite serving in a reserve TE role before Strange’s week five injury. No significant matchup concerns as the Seahawks have allowed the 3rd-most receptions/gm (7.0) and 9th-most YPG (62.6) to TEs this season.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Los Angeles Rams | DK: $3.5k, FD: $4.4k | at BAL

Mid-Range D/ST: Las Vegas Raiders | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.8k | vs. TEN

Value D/ST: Tennessee Titans | DK: $2.4k, FD: $3.9k | at LV

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!