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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Only two teams (Packers & Steelers) are on bye this week, but with another London game and the three primetime games aside, we’ll have an 11-game Sunday main slate left over. There are quite a few ugly match-ups on this slate, but football is football, and I know anyone who is able to will be parked on the couch to watch as much of the Sunday action as they can! Our DFS and prop betting ventures will also make some of these games much more watchable so let’s dive into the week six action! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

SEA @ CIN: Chance for some rain later in the game. Sustained winds look to be in the 10-15 mph range with gusts upwards of 20-25 mph.

MIN @ CHI: Rain pre-game that could linger into the first half. And look out because the Windy City will live up to its name this Sunday with sustained wind speeds of 20 mph and gusts of 30 mph.

SF @ CLE: More ugly conditions are expected in Cleveland with rain throughout the afternoon on Sunday and sustained winds around 15-20 mph (and near 30 mph gusts).

CAR @ MIA: Rain is possible throughout the game with 10-15 mph winds.

DET @ TB: 15-20 mph winds.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.3k | vs. CAR

Through five games, the Dolphins rank 1st in offense DVOA while leading the NFL in PPR (36.2). Tua Tagovailoa is 3rd in completion rate (71.7%), 1st in yards per attempt (9.7), and 1st in yards per completion (13.6). I’m not particularly worried about the fact that the Panthers are allowing just 204.4 pass YPG and the 11th fewest FPPG to the QB position. This Dolphins offense is just too efficient and too explosive to keep in check for four quarters. And, though QBs have not gone crazy against the Panthers (yet), it is a defense that is allowing the 5th most PPG (28.8). The Dolphins are huge -14 favorites in this one and should not have any trouble scoring, but with the knee injury to rookie RB sensation De’Von Achane, we could see the Dolphins be a bit more reliant on the passing game to put up the points.

Matthew Stafford, LAR | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.3k | vs. ARI

I know he hasn’t been an exciting play, but Stafford finally passed for multiple touchdowns for the first time this season in week five -- unfortunately, that multi-TD performance came attached to a season-low of 222 pass yards. He did throw for at least 307 yards in three of the first four games, but no more than one TD in any of those games. Stafford will have a chance to stitch the high passing yards and multiple touchdowns together this week as he faces a Cardinals defense that checks in at 30th in pass DVOA and has allowed the 5th most FPPG to QBs. He won’t break the bank at his current DFS salaries and has some clear stack options with Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp entering his second healthy game.

Gardner Minshew II, IND | DK: $5k, FD: $6.5k | @ JAX

It’s looking like Baker Mayfield (DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.1k) will be the highest-owned value QB on this slate. While I don’t hate that play whatsoever, I also don’t mind dropping even further down to Gardner Minshew II. Minshew is the 3rd least expensive starting QB on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week, but he is a favorable candidate to post a top 12-15 QB fantasy score. He has plenty of starting NFL experience and, if you like “revenge” narratives, he will be taking on his former team in Jacksonville. In his lone start this season in place of the injured Anthony Richardson (shoulder/IR), Minshew attempted 44 passes. He owns a 68.7% comp% on the season and takes on a Jags defense that has surrendered the 5th most pass YPG and 6th most FPPG to QBs. You can make some very intriguing GPP lineups with Minshew in at QB and I do like his chances of putting up around 20 fantasy points on Sunday.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Bijan Robinson, ATL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.6k | vs. WAS

Robinson found the endzone on a nifty little catch near the goal line (that’s the .gif you see toward the top of this newsletter), but his 46 yards rushing and two receptions for 12 yards were not enough to return value on his high-end salaries. I believe the subpar performance will drive his ownership under 10% on both sites this week, making Bijan a strong leverage play in tournaments. His 61% snap% and two targets in week five were season-lows but, prior to week five, Robinson ranked 1st on the team in target share and has logged at least a 72% snap% in the three previous games. Expect some positive regression in both targets and snap rate this week. Washington ranks mid-pack at 16th in rush DVOA, and Robinson will be arguably the most talented RB they’ve faced this season.

Travis Etienne Jr., JAX | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.7k | vs. IND

Etienne has logged a bellcow workload over the last two weeks, logging 83% and 85% snap shares while handling 30 and 23 touches. He exploded for 184 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns against a strong Bills defense in the week five London game -- a performance that could inflate his ownership in week six. Regardless, Etienne will be far from chalk on this slate and now has at least 23 touches in 4-of-5 games this season. The Colts are a middling run defense so there is no real concern with the match-up.

Raheem Mostert, MIA | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8.5k | vs. CAR

There’s no doubt that Mostert will be chalk this week, particularly on DraftKings where his $6,400 salary ranks 10th among healthy RBs on this slate. De’Von Achane landed on the IR this week, and Jeff Wilson Jr. (doubtful) is not looking likely to make his return from the IR just yet. With those injuries factored in, Mostert has a clear-cut pathway to significant volume in the NFL’s best offense facing off against an awful Panthers run defense that ranks 32nd in rush DVOA and has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to RBs.

D’Andre Swift, PHI | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.2k | @ NYJ

If folks are going to avoid Swift at his fairly generous DFS price points strictly because he’s facing the Jets' defense, well, I will not hesitate to go overweight on him against the field. Swift has logged between a 54% and 75% snap% in each of the last four games. In that four-game span, he is averaging 18.8 rushes/gm and 3.5 receptions/gm for 126.6 total YPG. Kenneth Gainwell has been healthy the last three games and has played at least a 38% snap% in all three weeks (no other PHI RB has seen the field in that stretch) but Swift has out-touched Gainwell 58 to 29 in those games while just looking like the better all-around back. Getting to the match-up, the Jets can be beaten on the ground and check in at 15th in rush DVOA. They have only allowed two total TDs to RBs this season but have allowed the 7th most rushing yards and 3rd most receptions and receiving yards to RBs. If the Eagles get right on the goal line, we can rest assured that Jalen Hurts will punch it in the endzone via the unstoppable “Brotherly Shove” play call, but Swift could always break loose for a longer touchdown run. Regardless, the volume and yardage production should be there for Swift, so any touchdown(s) would just be a bonus.

Alexander Mattison, MIN | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.9k | @ CHI

Mattison has not been overly impressive in his first season as the Vikings’ full-time RB1, but he does rank 11th among NFL RBs in yards after contact per attempt, and he’s been highly involved in the redzone where he has accounted for 78.6% of Minnesota’s rush attempts to go along with a notable 21.1% redzone target%. Cam Akers, who was acquired via trade from the Rams, has played just a 29% snap% in each of the last two weeks so until that figure goes up significantly, Mattison is going to continue to see the bulk of the work out of the backfield. The Bears are allowing the 3rd most FPPG to RBs, so there are no issues with the match-up. The weather in Chicago is also going to be very windy, which is a downgrade to any downfield passing attack, to begin with, and once you factor in the absence of superstar WR Justin Jefferson (hamstring/IR), you could see how Mattison’s role as a receiver out of the backfield might increase in this game as well. The Bears are allowing the most receiving YPG and 3rd most receptions/gm to RBs this season.

Chuba Hubbard, CAR | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.5k | @ MIA

It’s not a sexy play, but you can rarely find a starting RB for this cheap, which is what Hubbard will be this Sunday with Miles Sanders (shoulder) ruled out. From an advanced rushing metrics standpoint, Hubbard has been doing well this season even though he plays on an awful offense. Hubbard ranks 4th in the NFL in yards after contact per attempt (2.5) and is 12th among RBs in rush attempts per broken tackle (8.8). He is also a capable pass catcher and has brought in 12/14 targets this season. The Panthers will likely find themselves playing from behind early on in this one, but the Dolphins aren’t exactly stout on the ground and rank 24th in rush DVOA. 20 total touches (~15 rushes, ~5 receptions) is an attainable outcome for Hubbard in this one. If he lucks his way into the endzone, he’ll easily return value on these low-end salaries.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.3k | vs. SEA

Chase is coming off of a slate-breaking week five performance where he caught 15/19 targets for 192 yards and three scores! QB Joe Burrow looked as healthy as he has all season, and he had no hesitation feeding Chase a monstrous 41.3% target share last Sunday. The absence of Tee Higgins likely helped boost Chase’s target numbers. Higgins may return this week but is currently listed as questionable to suit up. Regardless, this will be a prime match-up against a Seahawks defense that has allowed the most FPPG to WRs this season. Seattle is also allowing 98.5 YPG to WR1s. The forecast for this game calls for a bit of rain and winds in the 10-15 mph range (20-25 mph gusts). However, Chase’s average depth of target (aDOT) has been on the shallower side at 7.5 yards this season, so his upside isn’t necessarily limited due to the windy conditions. The target volume is the name of the game with Chase, and he’s also accounting for a massive 42.9% redzone target%.

Puka Nacua, LAR | DK: $8k, FD: $7.9k | vs. ARI

Nacua proved that he and Cooper Kupp can coexist in this Rams offense in week five. While it was his second-lowest fantasy output of the season, Nacua was targeted a healthy 11 times and finished with a 7-71-1 receiving line last Sunday while Kupp played 95% of snaps and saw 12 targets himself. Kupp will handle primary slot duties while Nacua operates on the perimeter on roughly 70% of his routes. The Cardinals have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to perimeter WRs over the last four weeks and rank 30th on the season in pass DVOA.

Jordan Addison, MIN | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.7k | @ CHI

KJ Osborn, MIN | DK: $4.4k, FD: $6.2k | @ CHI

I’ll lump these two guys together since both will benefit in the NFL’s most pass-heavy offense (MIN: 70.5% pass play%) with Justin Jefferson (hamstring/IR) going down. Both Addison and Osborn ran 100% of the pass routes after Jefferson sustained his injury in week five. Overall, Jefferson leaves behind a 27.2% target% and 37.1% air yard%. TE TJ Hockenson will soak up some of that target volume as well as WR Brandon Powell, who now rises to WR3 on the depth chart. But Addison and Osborn will be the big beneficiaries, and they’ll see a quality match-up versus a Bears defense that ranks 31st in pass DVOA.

Christian Kirk, JAX | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.6k | vs. IND

Kirk has logged at least a 79% snap% in Jacksonville’s last four games, which coincides with WR Zay Jones either being out or banged up. In those four games, Kirk leads the Jags with a 27.0% target%, averaging 10.0 targets/gm, 7.3 receptions/gm, and 81.5 YPG. Zay Jones will also miss this week’s game with a knee injury. We’ll like the match-up for Jones as the Colts rank 20th in pass DVOA and have allowed the 9th most FPPG to WRs.

Drake London, ATL | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.4k | vs. WAS

The Falcons lean heavily on the run game (53.7% pass%, 7th lowest) which makes it difficult to trust any Atlanta pass catchers. However, the Falcons have had no choice but to let second-year QB Desmond Ridder air it out a bit more as they have found themselves either in more neutral game scripts or playing from behind. As a result, Ridder is averaging 34.5 pass att/gm over the last four weeks. In that span, WR Drake London is averaging 7.3 targets/gm and has a team-high seven redzone targets with two receiving touchdowns. There is no doubt that this is a stellar match-up for London as the Commanders have allowed the 5th most FPPG to WRs this season and the 2nd most FPPG to perimeter WRs (London: 80% perimeter%). It’ll just come down to how willing the Falcons are to attempt another 35-ish passes but London will make for a very intriguing GPP play at modest DFS salaries.

Josh Downs, IND | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.6k | @ JAX

Downs’ 20.6% target% is good for second on the team behind WR Michael Pittman Jr. (28.8% target%). Downs showed some solid rapport with QB Garner Minshew II when Minshew stepped in as the starter in week three. In that game, Downs saw 12 targets come his way, catching eight for 57 yards. Minshew is more likely to stand in the pocket and throw a few more passes than rookie QB Anthony Richardson (shoulder/IR) would be expected to throw, so Richardson’s absence shouldn’t be viewed as a significant downgrade for the Colts' passing offense, and may even be an upgrade. Downs will have more appeal on DraftKings given the PPR scoring format but the rookie WR is not a bad value option regardless of your preferred DFS site.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Evan Engram, JAX | DK: $4.5k, FD: $5.5k | vs. IND

Engram seems to be another beneficiary in the Jags passing attack when WR Zay Jones is out or injured, or at least a more reliable option when it comes to target volume. Engram has seen exactly eight targets in each of the last four games. While he has not logged a redzone target in those four games, Engram has played 85% of the redzone snaps and will get on the touchdown board sooner rather than later. It’s a solid match-up against the Colts, who allow the 7th most YPG to TEs.

Logan Thomas, WAS | $3.5k, FD: $5.4k | @ ATL

Commanders offensive coordinator and assistant head coach is used to having an athletic tight end heavily involved in the offensive game plan going back to his Kansas City days with Travis Kelce. Logan Thomas is not Travis Kelce, but he did put up a very Kelce-like performance last Thursday night, hauling in 9-of-11 targets for 77 yards and a touchdown. Thomas sat out week three but in the four games he has played, he has just one fewer target than target leader Jahan Dotson and the same amount of targets (25) as Terry McLaurin. The Falcons have been stout against WRs (5th fewest FPPG allowed) but tight ends have flourished in this match-up, averaging 7.0 receptions/gm, 62.6 YPG, and 0.6 TDs/gm. Overall, the Falcons are allowing the 2nd most FPPG to TEs this season so Thomas looks like a great option at his mid-level price points.

Foster Moreau, NO | DK: $2.7k, FD: $4.6k | @ HOU

A definite flier here, but Saints TE Juwan Johnson will miss his second consecutive contest this Sunday. Moreau was also out in week four, but he returned last week and logged an 83% snap%. The Saints had little reason to be aggressive through the air en route to a 34-0 drubbing of the Patriots, but Moreau’s lone target in the game was a six-yard touchdown. How much Moreau will be utilized this week is a mystery, but he’s certainly in a strong spot against a Texans defense that is allowing 87.8 YPG and 8.5 receptions/gm to TEs over their last four games.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: San Francisco 49ers | DK: $4k, FD: $5k | @ CLE

DraftKings Value: Detroit Lions | DK: $2.7k, FD: $4.4k | @ TB

Punt Play D/ST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers | DK: $2.3k, FD: $3.4k | vs. DET

Contrarian D/ST: Las Vegas Raiders | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.3k | vs. NE

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Justin Fields, DJ Moore, Jordan Addison

QB + WR/TE + Opp RB (Game Stack)

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Kenneth Walker III

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Kirk Cousins, Jordan Addison, KJ Osborn

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

David Montgomery + Lions D/ST

Value QB/WR/TE Double Stack

Sam Howell, Curtis Samuel, Logan Thomas

Full Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Raheem Mostert

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp WR

Gardner Minshew II, Josh Downs, Christian Kirk

Touchdown Call 🏈

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.3k | vs. SEA

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Logan Thomas MORE than 36.5 Receiving Yards

KJ Osborn MORE than 3.5 Receptions

🆕 Props AI 🆕

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!