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Main Slate Rundown 📝

It’s a big bye week with six teams off the board so we’ll be left with a 10-game Sunday main slate to dig into! This slate is split up nicely with six 1 o’clock ET kickoffs and four games in the 4 o’clock ET window, if you’re an NFL Redzone watcher like myself, you’ll be able to soak in the bulk of the action without too much chaos going on. Week six was one of the lowest-scoring NFL Sundays in quite some time, and I’m not sure this week will be much different. Five match-ups feature an over/under of ≤ 41 points, and the only game that comes close to sniffing a 50 over/under, predictably, will be the Chargers at Chiefs match-up. No matter! We’ll paint the canvas with the palette we have in front of us. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• DET @ BAL: 15-20 mph sustained winds with ~30 mph gusts. The deep passing game gets a bit of a downgrade.

• BUF @ NE: 15 mph sustained winds, gusts around 25 mph with a chance of rain throughout the afternoon.

• WAS @ NYG: More windy conditions here with 15-20 mph sustained winds and 30+ mph gusts. Downgrade to the passing games.

• ARI @ SEA: Afternoon rain is possible.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Patrick Mahomes, KC | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9.2k | vs. LAC

Like most weeks, it isn’t of the utmost importance to spend up at QB, and, with his slate-high DFS salaries in mind, Mahomes hasn’t exactly been returning GPP-winning value. Nonetheless, it’s difficult to look past this game which clearly stands above the rest in expected offensive output. The Chargers are getting burnt through the air this season, allowing 317.8 pass YPG, and the only QB they’ve held under 21.04 FP this season has been Raiders rookie backup QB Aidan O’Connell -- they even made Ryan Tannehill look like a solid NFL QB. The Chargers are also forcing the 9th highest pass play% in the NFL and are dealing with multiple injuries to their secondary. I won’t be viewing Mahomes as a priority, but if you’re comfortable with some of the value plays that you land on, Mahomes could simply be an added luxury to DFS lineups this week.

Jordan Love, GB | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.8k | @ DEN

The Packers are fresh off of their bye week, and the offense will see one of the softest match-ups they could hope for. The Broncos' defense has been Swiss cheese this season, ranking 32nd in pass DVOA (and 32nd in total DVOA) while allowing a 76.8% completion rate, 2.3 pass TDs/gm, and the 3rd most FPPG to QBs. Love put up a primetime stinker his last time out, which included three picks and zero touchdowns, but he had a promising start to his 2023 campaign, scoring at least 19.64 FP across the first four games of the season. While this is largely a match-up-based play, Love has performed well against some quality defenses this season and will have a wide-open pathway to returning value on his modest DFS salaries.

Joshua Dobbs, ARI | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.6k | @ SEA

There are quite a few intriguing value QBs to choose from this week, including guys like Sam Howell (DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.4k), Russell Wilson (DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.2k), and Desmond Ridder (DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.9k). However, Dobbs is catching my eye as a cheap QB play for a few reasons. First off, you have to think of the motivational factor. With Kyler Murray returning soon as the Cardinals starting QB, Dobbs may be starting his final game of the season this Sunday. Dobbs, who is only on a one-year contract, could certainly do himself some favors by leaving on a high note ahead of his upcoming free agency window. Dobbs has played well, or at least notably better, than I believe most of us thought he would entering the season as the Cardinals' interim starter. He has also flashed some rushing upside, running for 40+ yards in four of his last five games. The match-up is excellent against the Seahawks, who are a pass funnel defense (SEA ranks 24th in pass DVOA but 1st in rush DVOA). Arizona is a +8 point underdog in this game so the gamescript should lean pass-heavy regardless. A 20+ FP showing is an attainable outcome for Dobbs this week, and he should fly fairly low under the radar.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Josh Jacobs, LV | DK: $7.4k, FD: $8k | @ CHI

When you get a quarterback match-up that pits Brian Hoyer up against Tyson Bagent, you’re probably going to see a major focus on the ground game and short passing game. In any close game script, Josh Jacobs is going to be fed touches, and Vegas heads into Chicago as slight -2.5 favorites. Jacobs is a true bellcow back who leads all RBs on this slate with an 80% snap% on the season. The Bears are holding RBs to 74.3 rush YPG, but they’re not necessarily an elite run defense based on their 17th rush DVOA ranking. Where Jacobs could do much of his damage is as a pass catcher. Jacobs is averaging 6.5 targets/gm over his last four, which sets up well against a Bears defense that has allowed the most receiving yards to RBs (366) and tied for the most receiving TDs (4) allowed. I don’t believe any non-Bears or Raiders fan is going to go out of their way to tune into this one, but it’s a strong volume-based spot to hone in on Jacobs as a high-end DFS play.

Kenneth Walker III, SEA | DK: $7k, FD: $8.8k | vs. ARI

Walker heads in with a stellar match-up against the Cardinals, who rank 29th in rush DVOA and surrender the 3rd most FPPG to RBs. Walker has been a touchdown machine as of late and has found paydirt six times in his previous four games -- he leads all (healthy) RBs on this slate with an 80.6% team rush% in the redzone. In two games against Arizona last season, Walker took 47 carries for 206 yards and three touchdowns while adding five receptions on seven targets for 33 yards. He averaged 24.95 DKFP/22.2 FDFP in those two games. The Seahawks are -8 home favorites this week so expect a heavy dose of KW3 this week.

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6.2k | @ BAL

This is far from a safe play, but Gibbs, whose primary concern (when healthy) this season has been volume. Without David Montgomery (ribs/out) available and Craig Reynolds (hamstring/toe/questionable) also banged up, Gibbs may need to handle a featured back amount of touches this week. It’s been evident that the Lions would rather keep Gibbs’ touches in check this season as the rookie gets his footing in the NFL, but concerning Gibbs, head coach Dan Campbell said this week "I'd like to say we’re going to be careful with him, but the reality is we need him." When Montgomery sat out in week three, Gibbs handled 17 carries, more than double his second-highest carry total on the season. Of course, Gibbs has been banged up as well and has sat out the Lions’ previous two games, but he logged a full practice on Friday and heads into week seven without an injury designation. It’s not an easy match-up against the Ravens who check in at 7th in rush DVOA. But, with high winds expected (15-20 mph sustained, ~30 mph gusts), the run game should be upgraded. Gibbs has elite talent that may prove to be “match-up proof” so long as he gets his fair share of touches.

Isiah Pacheco, KC | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.4k | vs. LAC

It’s been four consecutive games where Pacheco has looked like the clear-cut RB1 in the Chiefs backfield. In those four games, Pacheco is averaging 19.8 touches/gm for 99.5 total YPG, and he has punched in three touchdowns. He has also taken over primary redzone responsibilities and has had 19 RZ opportunities (15 rushes/4 targets) in the last four games, compared to four RZ opportunities for Jerick McKinnon and two for Clyde Edwards-Helaire in that same span. Pacheco also brought in a season-high six receptions last week, which is an area he can add to his value against the Chargers, who are allowing 7.3 receptions/gm to RBs over their last four games.

Jerome Ford, CLE | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.6k | @ IND

Ford has faced some tough match-ups over the last three weeks, but he may be able to find some room against a Colts defense that is allowing the 5th most FPPG to RBs over the last four weeks. While Kareem Hunt is mixing in with some touches, Ford is the clear RB1 in the Browns’ offense -- Ford has out-touched Hunt 45 to 27 in the three weeks Hunt has played since re-signing with Cleveland post-Nick Chubb injury. Ford has a great chance to return value on his modest RB salaries this week.

Zach Evans, LAR | DK: $4k, FD: $4.8k | vs. PIT

The Rams’ top two RBs, Kyren Williams and Ronnie Rivers, both landed on the IR this week. Zach Evans is expected to be the next man up, and if he is indeed viewed as the RB1 in this backfield, he’s too cheap in the $4k price range on both sites. I have a feeling that Darrell Henderson Jr., who has been elevated to the active roster, may see some decent opportunities as well. Henderson isn’t in the player pool on either DraftKings or FanDuel this week, so we aren’t able to take a flier on him. Regardless, Evans is the odds-on favorite to lead the backfield in a decent match-up (PIT: 19th in rush DVOA). Perhaps it’s just a situation to avoid altogether, but Evans does make plenty of sense as a GPP punt play, at the very least.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Cooper Kupp, LAR | DK: $9.5k, FD: $9.7k | vs. PIT

We just discussed the puzzling Rams RB situation with Evans above, but, ultimately, it may just be another week where we hone in on Cooper Kupp as premium WR play. After sitting out the first four games of the season, Kupp returned in week five and has looked like his usual dominant self. In his two games, he has commanded a monstrous 38.2% target% and a 48.4% air yard%. If the ragtag group of Rams RBs struggles to get anything going on the ground, Kupp could absolutely work as an extension of the run game by catching some short/intermediate passes. It’ll be a great match-up against the Steelers, who have allowed the 4th most FPPG to WRs this season.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, DET | DK: $8k, FD: $8.2k | @ BAL

It’s a windy game with a rough match-up against a Ravens team that ranks 3rd in pass DVOA and allows the 10th fewest FPPG to WRs. But sometimes you just have to trust the talent and volume of an elite receiver like Amon-Ra St. Brown. In his five games this season, St. Brown has either scored a touchdown or gone for 100+ yards receiver -- he did both last week, bringing in 12-of-15 targets for 124 yards and a score. Similar to the point made with Kupp, if the Lions struggle to get anything going on the ground without RB David Montgomery available, St. Brown could be in line for plenty of shorter, high-percentage targets to help move the sticks and sustain drives.

Gabe Davis, BUF | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.7k | @ NE

Davis is never a guy you can trust in a cash lineup but he’s in an interesting spot for GPPs this week. The Patriots have not done much right this season, but they have been a brutally tough match-up for opposing WR1s. The Patriots rank 1st in WR1 DVOA and have allowed just 36.6 YPG to WR1s this season. Of course, that would be Stefon Diggs as the top wideout for the Bills. The Pats have been beaten by WR2s and rank 30th in WR2 DVOA this season. Diggs is still going to see his fair share of targets but it’s a major downgraded match-up for him and a significant upgrade for Davis, who ranks second on the team in targets, receptions, air yards, and touchdowns. Davis has had a couple of big games this season and had a streak of four consecutive games with a touchdown snapped last week. Love him as a GPP option as he should check in with < 10% ownership on this slate.

Terry McLaurin, WAS | DK: $5.4k, FD: $7.2k | @ NYG

It’s a “go” spot for a mid-priced McLaurin as he looks to take advantage of Giants’ perimeter corners Adoree Jackson and Deonte Banks. McLaurin has aligned on the perimeter for 80% of plays this season and the Giants have allowed the 5th most FPPG to perimeter WRs over the last four weeks. This will be another one of the East Coast games that will see some windy conditions but McLaurin’s aDOT (average depth of target) has been 10.8 yards this season so he’s not necessarily reliant on the deep passes. For a cheaper Commanders play, Curtis Samuel (DK: $4k, FD: $6.4k) has been a productive play and has hauled in a touchdown in three consecutive games.

Marquise Brown, ARI | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.7k | @ SEA

Hollywood Brown has seen double-digit targets in four of the Cardinals’ last five games and accounts for a borderline elite 28.0% target% this season. As mentioned with QB Joshua Dobbs’ spotlight, the Seahawks are a pass funnel defense that has been dominant against the run (1st in rush DVOA) but very exploitable against the pass (24th in pass DVOA) which has resulted in them giving up the most FPPG to WRs this season.

Rashee Rice, KC | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.6k | vs. LAC

We’re all waiting with bated breath for that Rashee Rice breakout game and perhaps it arrives in week seven. Rice has looked like the best Chiefs wide receiver this season, but the opportunity has not quite reached a high level just yet. However, Rice has logged at least a 46% snap% in three of the last four games and, when he is out there running routes, he is seeing an excellent 31.8% target per route run rate (for comparison, Travis Kelce owns a 32.6% TPRR). While they don’t play the same receiving role, the absence of Justin Watson (elbow/out) could bolster Rice’s snap share. Watson has played on 44% of snaps this season and his unavailability could perhaps push Rice closer to a 60-70% snap%. Rice primarily runs out of the slot and the Chargers have surrendered the 6th most FPPG to slot WRs this season.

Jalin Hyatt, NYG | DK: $3k, FD: $4.7k | vs. WAS

This is primarily a DraftKings minimum-priced dart throw. Rookie Jalin Hyatt has plenty of talent that the Giants have yet to tap into this year. Hyatt logged a season-high 73% snap% last week and he plays almost exclusively on the perimeter. The Commanders’ secondary has been torched on the outside this season, allowing the most FPPG to perimeter WRs.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Mark Andrews, BAL | DK: $5.7k, FD: $6.9k | vs. DET

Outside of a two-touchdown week three performance, Mark Andrews has not had any other big games this season but he’s still one of the most involved TEs in the NFL and is averaging 6.8 targets/gm with a 20.1% target%. Historically, Andrews has been priced well into the $7k range on DraftKings and $8k range on FanDuel, so we’re getting some lower-end salaries on him this week. He’ll set up well against a Lions defense that is allowing the 5th most receiving YPG to TEs and, as touched on with a few of these East Coast games, some high winds may put more of a focus on the short/intermediate passing game (Andrews: 8.1-yard aDOT this season).

Luke Musgrave, GB | DK: $3.3k, FD: $5k | @ DEN

Musgrave was forced to exit the week four match-up due to a concussion but in his four healthy games this season, he has logged at least a 69% snap%. He’s bringing in 78.3% of his targets and, most importantly, he’ll get to go up against an atrocious Broncos defense that is allowing the most YPG (75.7) and FPPG to TEs this season.

Michael Mayer, LV | DK: $2.6k, FD: $4.9k | @ CHI

Rookie tight ends have had more of an impact this season than any class in recent memory. Mayer was one of the best TEs in the 2023 NFL Draft which led to the Raiders taking him as the 35th overall pick. He has seemingly taken over the TE1 role over the last couple of weeks, playing a 66% snap% in week five and an 81% snap% in week six. In week six, Mayer’s 20 routes run ranked 3rd on the team, only behind top WRs Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. The Bears' defense has been extremely vulnerable versus tight ends in their last four games, allowing 62.8 YPG, 7.3 receptions/gm, 0.5 TDs/gm, and the 5th most FPPG.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Buffalo Bills | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5k | @ NE

DraftKings Value: Baltimore Ravens | DK: $2.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. DET

Contrarian D/ST: Las Vegas Raiders | DK: $3.8k, FD: $4.7k | @ CHI

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Patrick Mahomes, Rashee Rice, Keenan Allen

QB + WR/TE + Opp RB (Game Stack)

Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, George Pickens

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews, Zay Flowers

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Josh Jacobs + Raiders D/ST

Value QB/WR/WR Double Stack

Joshua Dobbs, Marquise Brown, Michael Wilson

Full Team Stack - QB/TE/RB

Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp WR

Sam Howell, Terry McLaurin, Jalin Hyatt

Touchdown Call 🏈

Kenneth Walker III, SEA | DK: $7k, FD: $8.8k | vs. ARI

Reminder: Follow @LineStarApp on Twitter and retweet the weekly Touchdown Calls tweet! Three retweeters are randomly selected and assigned a player from the TD calls between myself, @FlatTyler83, and @ShannonOnSports. If your player scores a touchdown, you’ll win your choice of cash (via PayPal) or a one-month subscription to LineStar!

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Cooper Kupp MORE than 19.5 Fantasy Score

Gabriel Davis MORE than 39.5 Receiving Yards

🆕 Props AI 🆕

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!