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LineStar NFL DFS & Prop Shows w/ Tyler Wiemann

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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Week seven is upon us with a 10-game Sunday main slate on tap! Just like last Sunday’s main slate, nine of the ten games are pinned with single-score spreads, so more chaos and closely contested matchups could be on the horizon. Let’s keep this intro short and jump right into the action. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report 🌦️

• NE at TEN (1:00 ET, 42.5 O/U): Chance of rain, primarily in the first half, with 15 mph winds.

• CAR at NYJ (1:00 ET, 42.5 O/U): 10-15 mph winds.

• NO at CHI (1:00 ET, 46.5 O/U): Rain pregame, perhaps lingering into the first half. Sustained winds around 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

• MIA at CLE (1:00 ET, 35.5 O/U): Interesting spot here as some very strong winds are expected -- 20-25 mph sustained with gusts in the 40+ mph range. Some rain is also in the forecast during gametime. Since this is an outlier forecast, I’ll pin a photo to a detailed look at things below, and clicking on it will take you to the most up-to-date forecast.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jayden Daniels, WAS | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.7k | at DAL

Unlike a lot of previous Sunday slates, spending up at QB does set up as a more enticing approach this week. I’d expect Patrick Mahomes (DK: $7k, FD: $8k) to be a popular option and, given its slate-high 54.5 over/under, both QBs from this WAS/DAL game should be firmly on the radar as well. We haven’t seen a huge, slate-breaking performance out of Jayden Daniels yet this season -- missing two games certainly doesn’t help -- but this is a smash spot for him to post a ceiling performance. He’s been great from a rushing perspective, averaging 8.8 rush att/gm and 44.0 rush YPG. The Cowboys are also allowing the 9th-most rush YPG to QBs. But we should see an efficient passing day from Daniels. A big reason is his significantly improved completion rate versus zone coverage. Daniels has completed only 56.8% of his passes versus man coverage but 73.2% of his passes versus zone coverage. Dallas has run the highest ZoneCoverage% in the NFL at 82%. Dallas is also an awful 31st in pass DVOA and has allowed the most adjusted FPPG to QBs this season. Still being without star WR Terry McLaurin (out for a 4th consecutive game) isn’t ideal, and both Deebo Samuel and Zach Ertz (both questionable) are banged up, but Daniels is more than capable of making do with whatever weapons he has available. If Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, Jordan Love, and Russell Wilson can all put up 25+ fantasy points on this Dallas defense, I find zero reasons why Daniels can’t do the same.

Drake Maye, NE | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.2k | at TEN

The Titans have miraculously not allowed a 20+ FP QB performance yet this season, but, considering they are 22nd in pass DVOA, I’d say something’s gotta give soon. To be fair, they’ve faced a decent, but not overly daunting, group of QBs (G. Smith, K. Murray, CJ Stroud, D. Jones, M. Stafford, B. Nix). Drake Maye heads into this game as the QB6 in FPPG, and he’s top-five among all QBs in completion% (74.0%), passer rating (112.5), pass yards (1,522), and yards per attempt (8.5). He’s also been a capable runner when forced out of the pocket, averaging 23.0 rush YPG. To reiterate, I’d say spending up on Mahomes, Daniels, or Prescott makes the most sense at QB on this slate, but Maye has certainly proven to be a worthy DFS option in his sophomore season.

Jaxson Dart, NYG | DK: $5.2k, FD: $7.3k | at DEN

It’s a rough matchup (DEN: 7th in pass DVOA, 2nd fewest FPPG allowed to QBs), but Dart has been thoroughly impressive, and the Giants have had some additional time to prep for this game, having not played since last Thursday’s upset win over the Eagles. Despite losing his best weapon, Malik Nabers, during his first start back in week four, Dart has completed a solid 65.9% of his passes and, more notably, he’s been very effective as a runner, going for at least 54 rushing yards in all three of his starts. 43.8% of Dart’s rushes have been by design, which is essentially on par with that of Jalen Hurts (44.0% DesignedRush%). And it’s a higher figure than guys like Jayden Daniels and Josh Allen. It’s worth pointing out because it signifies that the Giants are not only comfortable with Dart running the ball, but they are encouraging it. This doesn’t come without some risks, but if you’re searching for a more affordable and low-owned QB to build around, Dart is as sensible as any of the other low-end options on this slate.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Saquon Barkley, PHI | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.7k | at MIN

We’re still waiting on the patented Saquon explosion game and, as long as he’s healthy, it’s more of a matter of “when” not “if” it’ll happen. By his lofty standards, it’s been a rather underwhelming season for Barkley up to this point -- he is 6th in rush attempts, but 22nd in rush yards, and he is the RB15 in per-game PPR scoring. Oddly enough, despite the lack of production, Barkley has handled a similar opportunity share this season (37.0%) as last season (39.9%), which was, of course, one of the best seasons for a running back in NFL history. His overall snap rate has also climbed to 82.4% (versus 73.9% in ‘24), and he’s playing far more third downs with a 94.7% 3rdDownSnap% (versus 64.9% in ‘24). The Eagles' O-Line has had its issues, which have led to some of the dips in Barkley’s numbers. But the Vikings D has struggled against outside runs while ranking 23rd in rush DVOA. Meanwhile, outside runs have been where Barkley has had the most success, so perhaps getting Barkley the ball with room on the outside will be a focal point in this game. However it shakes out, Barkley does provide plenty of leverage with a < 10% pOwn% on both DK and FD slates.

Javonte Williams, DAL | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.5k | vs. WAS

Getting plenty of exposure to this potential shootout is going to be a pretty obvious approach for this slate… There are just so many pieces to like. A change of scenery has seemingly done wonders for Javonte Williams. He put up his first true dud of the season last week, but he remains the RB6 in FPPG, and it’s worth pointing out that, while the big stats weren’t there, he did play a season-high 85% of the snaps last week and was targeted eight times. So, as if we needed further proof, Williams is setting up as a “game script independent RB,” which is a bit of a rarity these days. He has been among the best in yards after contact per attempt, ranking 3rd in the NFL in that department, trailing only Bijan Robinson and James Cook. He has also handled 22 RedZone opportunities this season, including a 23.5% RedZone Target%, which is huge for an RB. With WR CeeDee Lamb expected back this Sunday, Williams will likely face fewer stacked boxes as well. The Commanders are allowing the 10th-most FPPG to RBs over their last four games and 43% more FPPG to RBs on the road (L9Games).

Quinshon Judkins, CLE | DK: $6k, FD: $7.4k | vs. MIA

If you read the weather report above, you’ll probably join me in the thinking that the Browns should just hand the ball off to Judkins 30+ times in this game. Assuming the current Cleveland forecast holds, high sustained winds in the 20-25 mph range and even more troublesome 40+ mph gusts are going to make any semblance of a downfield passing attack difficult to establish. And that doesn’t even account for some potential rain in the mix as well. After putting up 95, 115, and 128 scrimmage yards in weeks 3, 4, and 5, respectively, on an average of 22.7 touches/gm, Judkins mustered only 36 yards on 12 carries while failing to catch his lone target last week against Pittsburgh. But this Miami defense has been extremely vulnerable while checking in at 28th in rush DVOA and allowing the 5th-most FPPG to RBs. So, while it’s not necessarily “sneaky” by any means, there are plenty of factors pointing toward Judkins and the Browns’ run game getting a significant upgrade this week.

JK Dobbins, DEN | DK: $5.6k, FD: $6.7k | vs. NYG

We’ve got a bit of a running theme with the RB section so far, with guys looking to bounce back following week six duds. Dobbins certainly qualified after putting up only 40 yards on 14 carries last week in an ugly 13-11 win over the Jets. Prior to week six, Dobbins had posted at least 14.5 DKFP in every game this season. He is quietly 10th in the NFL in rush attempts (91) and 7th in yards (442). He hasn’t been in on many third downs and, mostly as a result, he’s not seeing many targets. But Dobbins is clearly the preferred runner over rookie RJ Harvey on early downs and in the redzone, which is what really counts. He’s also 3rd among NFL RBs in explosive run rate, which works out well in this matchup as the Giants have allowed the 4th-highest explosive run rate in the league while also ranking 31st in rush DVOA. We’ll look for Dobbins to get back on track in this game at home, where he is averaging 82.0 rush YPG (versus 69.5 rush YPG on the road).

Kimani Vidal, LAC | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.2k | vs. IND

In the first game without RB Omarion Hampton, it didn’t look like much of a competition on who the preferred interim lead back would be for the Chargers last week. Vidal outsnapped Hassan Haskins 43-to-20, and he took 21 touches for 138 scrimmage yards and a TD, to Haskins’ seven touches for 23 yards (and no TDs). Of course, facing a putrid Miami defense was a major supporting factor behind those numbers, but the clear lead RB usage is what we’ll focus on heading into this upcoming matchup. The Colts have been stingy versus RBs, allowing the 8th-fewest FPPG to the position. However, their subpar 21st rush DVOA ranking tells us that they’re not necessarily as stout against the run as some of the surface numbers would indicate. The Colts are also dead last in opponent rush success rate (a successful rush play must gain 40% of needed yards on first down, 60% of needed yards on second down, and 100% of needed yards on third or fourth down) so, as long as the volume is there, Vidal should be able to help move the chains regularly in this game. It should also be pointed out that this matchup does possess the second-highest total on the slate with a 48.5 over/under, so it could be a great DFS environment that features considerably less popular plays compared to the Cowboys/Commanders matchup.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

George Pickens, DAL | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8k | vs. WAS

Now that CeeDee Lamb is expected back from an ankle injury that held him out for essentially the last four games (he only played seven snaps in week three), Pickens is looking a bit over-priced and, thus, may represent some leverage if his projected ownership continues to creep down (perhaps while Lamb’s creeps up) as we get closer to Sunday. But when Pickens hits, he hits big, so it’s not really an issue of DFS price point with him. Pickens’ game is built on huge gains and big plays. He is 2nd in the NFL with 10 explosive plays (20+ yard receptions) this season, and the Commanders’ defense has allowed the 5th-highest explosive play rate to receivers. Pickens is also 9th among NFL WRs with a 134.1 passer rating when targeted, so good things tend to happen when Dak Prescott sends it his way.

Deebo Samuel Sr., WAS | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.1k | at DAL

Samuel is questionable to play this week due to a heel injury, but he has played through the problem in each of the last two games and did get in a limited practice on Friday; as long as it’s not something that has gotten worse, he should be good to go on Sunday. Samuel had a quiet week six, catching all four of his targets for just 15 yards. But he was excellent in week five (while supposedly playing through the same heel injury), catching 8-of-11 targets for 96 yards and a TD. The Cowboys have allowed the most FPPG to WRs this season, and, even though they’ve been their “best” against the slot, where Samuel has run most of his routes, this is still a matchup where Samuel figures to excel, especially with Terry McLaurin out another week and TE Zach Ertz popping up on the injury report as questionable.

If Samuel were to be forced to sit out this game, Luke McCaffrey (DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.5k) and Chris Moore (DK: $3k, FD: $4.6k) would emerge as intriguing value options.

Stefon Diggs, NE | DK: $5.6k, FD: $5.8k | at TEN

Not to sound like a broken record, but Diggs is another guy who put up a lackluster performance in week six. Still, he’s been showing some developed rapport with QB Drake Maye and could be due for a bounce-back. Diggs is officially questionable due to a chest injury. It’s unclear when he picked up that injury… perhaps during last week’s game, which may help explain the quiet three-catch, 28-yard day. But he did get in limited practices all week, so that’s a pretty decent sign that he’ll be ready to roll. Diggs will head into this game leading the team with a 21.4% Target%, which may not be massive, but he is also fairly priced under $6k on both sites. The Titans have also ranked dead last in WR1 DVOA this season, which is another reason to like his chances at a performance closer to the ones he had in weeks four and five.

Rashee Rice, KC | DK: $5.6k, FD: $7.5k | vs. LV

Rashee Rice probably isn’t going to fly under the radar, particularly on DraftKings, where he is fairly underpriced. His six-game suspension has come to a close, and he is expected to immediately take over as the top receiving weapon in this Chiefs’ offense with reportedly no limitations in terms of his snap count. Rice’s 2024 season was cut short due to injury, but he was a clear breakout candidate and commanded an elite 34.1% Target% in the three full games that he played last year. With QB Patrick Mahomes playing like his old self (he is the QB1 in fantasy thus far), the sky is the limit for Rice as he retakes the field for the first time in over a year.

Chris Olave, NO | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.2k | at CHI

It hasn’t been sexy, but Chris Olave has been a consistent target hog this season. He has double-digit targets in five of six games, and the one outlier game is when he found the endzone for the first time this season. Only Ja’Marr Chase (80 TGTs), who already played this week and saw a ridiculous 23 targets on TNF, and Puka Nacua (65 TGTs) have more targets than Olave (64 TGTs) up to this point. Sure, it’d be nice if Olave’s stat lines benefited a bit more from all of the looks that he’s been getting. But, as long as QB Spencer Rattler (who is honestly playing some decent football) continues to look his way 10+ times per game, Olave is going to be a strong floor play with a decent chance to eventually break through with a massive game. The Bears have allowed the 8th most FPPG to slot and left perimeter WRs over their last four games, which is where Olave has run 80% of his routes (52% slot, 28% LWR). So maybe this is the week?!

Jordan Addison, MIN | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.1k | vs. PHI

Addison is typically going to be a distant second to superstar WR Justin Jefferson when it comes to the Vikings’ target pecking order. But, since returning from suspension in week five, he has been very involved, catching 9-of-14 targets for 155 yards and the game-winning touchdown in London a couple of weeks ago. Addison played 96% of the snaps in week four, but, due to being benched for the first quarter in week five for “undisclosed reasons,” that dipped to a 75% snap%. But the good news is that, pending further playing time punishments, he’ll likely play nearly every offensive snap moving forward. QB JJ McCarthy (ankle) will be out for a fourth consecutive game, paving the way for another Carson Wentz start. Considering Wentz has started for both of Addison’s games thus far this season, and they’ve shown a solid connection, I can’t label McCarthy being out as a negative. The Eagles are also allowing the 3rd-most YPG (70.1) to WR2s this season. Eagles’ star cornerback Quinyon Mitchell is likely to shadow Justin Jefferson on the perimeter in this game, which leaves Addison drawing plenty of coverage from Adoree Jackson. Opposing QBs have targeted WRs in Jackson’s coverage on 37% of routes, and Jackson has allowed 1.76 yards per route covered, which is the 3rd-highest in the NFL. Plenty of reasons to like Addison in this spot.

Matthew Golden, GB | DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.9k | at ARI

Golden has flashed glimpses of the big play-making ability that led the Packers to draft him with the 23rd overall pick of the 2025 NFL Draft, which made him the first WR selected by the Packers in the first round in 23 years. His best performances have all come in the Packers’ last three games, where Golden has commanded a team-leading 37.6% AirYard% with a strong 12.4-yard aDOT. The Cardinals have been pretty stout on the perimeter, allowing the 10th fewest FPPG to outside WRs. However, they have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to slot WRs, which is where Golden has run 60% of his routes this season. Could this be the true breakout game? Decent chance!

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tucker Kraft, GB | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.3k | at ARI

Going to another Packer, the Cardinals’ defense tends to willingly funnel plenty of passes underneath, which is a major reason why slot WRs and TEs have found success against them. Tight ends against Arizona have seen the 2nd-most targets (55), receptions (41), and put up the 3rd-most yards (417) this season. Tucker Kraft has played no fewer than 88% of the snaps in a game this season, and his target share has jumped to 27.3% in the redzone. Tight end is typically a crapshoot, but, at likely < 10% ownership, Kraft looks like a nice option this week.

Harold Fannin Jr., CLE | DK: $3.9k, FD: $5.5k | vs. MIA

David Njoku (knee/out) will miss his first game of the season, which opens the door for Fannin to operate as the locked-in TE1. In his two games as the Browns' starting quarterback, Dillon Gabriel has targeted his tight ends 30 times, with Njoku being the recipient of 15 targets, Fannin 14 targets, and Blake Whiteheart one target. The extremely windy weather expected in this game could severely limit the deep passing games for both teams, so short aDOT receivers, like Fannin (6.4-yard aDOT), could see a volume boost. It’s also just an excellent matchup as the Dolphins check in at 30th in TE DVOA and have allowed the 6th-most FPPG to the position over their last four games.

Mason Taylor, NYJ | DK: $3.4k, FD: $4.7k | vs. CAR

It was a forgettable game as a whole for the Jets offense last week, and now they’ll likely be down top WR Garrett Wilson (knee/doubtful) in week seven. Predictably, Wilson has commanded a massive target share in this offense, averaging 9.3 targets/gm for a team-leading 34.8% Target%. However, second on the team in targets this season is Mason Taylor, and, over the last four games, his target share has jumped to 21.9%, which is a great number by tight end standards. With Wilson presumably out, Taylor should carry a strong floor in this game, and the matchup doesn’t get much better. The Panthers are dead last in TE DVOA and have allowed the most FPPG to TEs this season.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: New England Patriots | DK: $3.4k, FD: $5k | at TEN

Mid-Range D/ST: Cleveland Browns | DK: $3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. MIA

Value D/ST: Carolina Panthers | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.7k | at NYJ

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!