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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Week seven hits us with another loaded 10-game (DraftKings)/11-game (FanDuel) Sunday main slate! As usual, the extra game for FanDuel is due to the inclusion of the SNF game (NYJ @ PIT). This could very well be the highest-scoring slate of the season as we have five games that possess at least a 47-point over/under. Plenty of close spreads on this slate as well so this should be an electric NFL Sunday! Let’s get it! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• TEN @ BUF (1:00 ET, 41.0 O/U): A bit windy with sustained speeds around 15 mph.

• HOU @ GB (1:00 ET, 48.5 O/U): More 15 mph winds expected here. Should only affect FGs and longer throws.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jayden Daniels, WAS | DK: $7.6k, FD: $9.1k | vs. CAR

It hasn’t taken long for Jayden Daniels to rise up in the DFS rankings and he’ll sit atop the QB pricing on both sites this week. We still haven’t seen the true ceiling of Daniels yet, at least at the NFL level. Anyone who played CFB DFS last year knows what sort of monster fantasy scores he can put up. The Commanders are back at home and they’ll take on a generous Panthers D that ranks 31st in pass DVOA and dead last in rush DVOA. To no major surprise, the Commanders also check in with a slate-leading 30.8 implied team total. If Carolina can keep this game somewhat competitive, we may see Daniels pop off for a college-esque type of stat line.

Jordan Love, GB | DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.7k | vs. HOU

We’ll back Jordan Love once again following his second four-touchdown performance in a three-game span. This game against the Texans possesses plenty of shootout potential, though I don’t believe as many people will stack this game as much as the other high-total games. I’m also thinking many of Love’s stack pieces (J. Reed, R. Doubs, C. Watson, T. Kraft) go fairly overlooked this week. The Texans have allowed 24.3 FPPG to QBs when playing on the road this season, and in two home games, Love has averaged 30.4 FPPG.

Geno Smith, SEA | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.6k | at ATL

Smith is the QB10 in FPPG this season and the current passing yards leader (1,778). He’ll land in a good spot against Atlanta, who has allowed the 7th most adjusted FP to QBs. Smith also averages +31.2% more FPPG in domed stadiums. This is another one of those 50+ over/under match-ups, and it’s worth noting that RB Kenneth Walker III (questionable) was a late-week addition to the injury report due to an illness. If KW3 is out, more offensive weight may be placed on the arm of Geno Smith.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Saquon Barkley, PHI | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9k | at NYG

If y’all know me, you know I’m not the biggest “revenge narrative” guy out there, but I’m willing to ride that narrative this week. Saquon makes his return to New York, and following a dud game against the Browns, he may be eager to cut loose on his former team that is suffering from multiple injuries to their defensive front. Barkley is also currently projected for sub-10% ownership and he’s already had two slate-breaking performances in five games this season.

Kyren Williams, LAR | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.6k | vs. LV

Williams is about as strong of a floor play that you’ll find in any given week and, even though he’s playing on a banged-up Rams offense, he seems like a near lock to find the endzone at least once every game, as he has done in all five games this season. Williams is 1st in the NFL with a 45.2% Touch% and 2nd in the NFL in Opportunity Share at 34.9%. It’s also no surprise that he easily leads all RBs on this slate with an 86% snap% on the season. He rarely comes off the field and is nearly locked into 20+ touches/gm. Zero issues with the match-up against a Raiders team that has allowed the 3rd most adjusted FP to RBs.

James Cook, BUF | DK: $7k, FD: $7.9k | vs. TEN

This really isn’t a numbers play, unless we’re talking DFS ownership, because James Cook could go virtually un-owned. It seemed like he was close to playing last week, but a toe injury ultimately held him out against the Jets. He’s now off the injury report entirely and logged back-to-back full practices on Thursday and Friday. The Bills (-8.5) are among the heaviest favorites on the slate so they could certainly end up following a very run-heavy game script. Backup RB Ray Davis had a primetime breakout in week six while Cook was sidelined, and he may start to play a factor the rest of the way, but he is also questionable with a calf injury and has only logged limited practices this week.

Chuba Hubbard, CAR | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.4k | at WAS

Since Andy Dalton took over at QB in week three and defenses had to start respecting the Panthers’ passing game, Hubbard has been a clear beneficiary as he has averaged 22 touches/gm and 122.1 total YPG. Rookie RB Jonathan Brooks (knee/out) is still on the shelf for at least one more week, and Hubbard has been proving his worth as a leadback in the meantime. This is a promising match-up against a Washington defense that ranks 21st in rush DVOA.

Kareem Hunt, KC | DK: $6k, FD: $7.7k | at SF

There is no question who the interim lead back is for the Chiefs following the Isiah Pacheco (leg) injury. Prior to their week six bye, Hunt handled 28 touches on a 63% snap% against the Saints and procured 117 total yards with a touchdown. The veteran RB may have lost some of his explosiveness, but he looks healthier than he did a season ago and is consistently ripping off 5-to-8 yards of chunk gains while rarely going down on initial contact. The 49ers are a mid-pack run defense and the Chiefs’ lead back role is always a fantasy-relevant position.

Zach Charbonnet, SEA | DK: $5.3k, FD: $5.3k | at ATL

We don’t have many viable value RBs on this slate but Charbonnet becomes highly playable if Kenneth Walker III (illness/questionable) is ruled out.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

AJ Brown, PHI | DK: $8k, FD: $8.9k | at NYG

The headlines for this game will be placed on the Saquon revenge factor, but this could also be a spot where AJ Brown goes nuclear. He’s only been active in two games this season but has gone for at least 116 yards and a TD in both contests. Brown is likely to be shadowed by Giants CB Deonte Banks, but, as discussed in previous NFL newsletters, that is far from a concern, and, if anything, it’s an upgrade for Brown. We’ve seen several top perimeter WRs exploit Banks’ coverage, and overall, the Giants check in at 27th in WR1 DVOA. There are several stud WRs to like on this slate but Brown is likely to fly under the radar despite the promising match-up.

Malik Nabers, NYG | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | vs. PHI

We’ll go to the other side of the field and spotlight star rookie Malik Nabers, who is off of the injury report following a two-game absence due to a concussion. Over his first four NFL games, Nabers averaged an absurd 13.0 targets/gm, leading the NFL in Target% (38.2%) and ranking 3rd in AirYard% (51.6%). The Eagles have been awful against top wideouts, ranking dead last in WR1 DVOA and allowing 86.0 YPG to opposing WR1s. So we’ll look for Nabers to pick up right where he left off in week four.

Drake London, ATL | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.5k | vs. SEA

Since week three, Drake London’s 30.6% Target% ranks 3rd in the NFL, trailing only Justin Jefferson and Garrett Wilson (the 22-target game is doing some heavy lifting there). It’s safe to say that Kirk Cousins has developed some strong rapport with his new WR1. London and the Falcons’ passing game should find plenty of success against a Seahawks secondary that will be without both of their starting perimeter cornerbacks (Riq Wollen and Tre Brown) and is still playing without starting safety Jerrick Reed II. The Seahawks have also allowed the most FPOE (fantasy points over expected) to WRs over the last four weeks.

Terry McLaurin, WAS | DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.2k | vs. CAR

We love QB Jayden Daniels for many obvious reasons again this week so, naturally, we’ll have some love for his top receiving weapon. After a rough couple of games to start the season, the Daniels-to-McLaurin connection has taken off in recent weeks which has led to McLaurin averaging 20.5 DKFP/17.6 FDFP per game over the last four weeks. McLaurin is also a bit of an anomaly among perimeter WRs as he heavily resides on one side of the field -- the left perimeter, which is where he has run 75% of his routes. That’s notable in this match-up since the Panthers have allowed THE most FPPG to LWRs this season.

Tee Higgins, CIN | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.8k | at CLE

Higgins often goes overlooked for DFS purposes simply because Ja’Marr Chase takes up most of the spotlight in the Bengals’ passing game. But Higgins has been very relevant since getting back to full health. Across weeks four, five, and six, Higgins is second in the NFL with a 33.7% Target% and 9th with a 44.2% AirYard%. With so much defensive attention going toward Chase, Higgins often finds softer coverage and that may show through in this match-up against the Browns, who check in at 26th in WR2 DVOA.

Amari Cooper, BUF | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.1k | vs. TEN

It still isn’t confirmed whether or not Amari Cooper will debut with his new team after getting traded from the Browns this past week. But, if it is announced that he will play, if you like to live dangerously, Cooper is a highly intriguing GPP play who projects for super low ownership. Up to this point, the biggest semblance of a WR1 that Josh Allen and the Bills have had in this offense has been Khalil Shakir. No disrespect meant to Shakir, but Amari Cooper is the much better receiver and the Bills may use this game, which they should win handily, as a spot where Allen and Cooper can establish an early rapport. He may not know more than a third of the playbook and probably won’t play a huge snap share but (again, assuming he’s active) Cooper should see the targets when he is on the field.

Jerry Jeudy, CLE | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.6k | vs. CIN

This is an ugly, tough-to-trust Browns offense but they are expected to get RB Nick Chubb back in the mix this week. Chubb likely won’t play a full workload but just having his presence back on the field could free up some things for the Cleveland passing game. Jeudy is now the de facto WR1 following the exodus of the aforementioned Amari Cooper to the Bills. For what it’s worth, the Bengals have allowed 80.9 YPG to WR1s and rank 24th in WR1 DVOA so we may get a decent game out of Jeudy here.

JuJu Smith-Schuster, KC | DK: $4k, FD: $6.1k | at SF

Some regression should be expected after JuJu turned back the clock and hauled in 130 yards on seven catches (eight targets) against the Saints prior to the week six bye. But if he’s going to be a top two or three target for the Rashee Rice-less Chiefs, JuJu will be relevant for DFS purposes. He’ll be megachalk on DraftKings considering his price point hardly budged and sits at a flat $4k, but you won’t find many WRs out of this range with a higher ceiling.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Brock Bowers, LV | DK: $5.8k, FD: $7k | at LAR

Tight end continues to generally be a wasteland but the top three guys at the position -- Travis Kelce (DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.1k), George Kittle (DK: $6k, FD: $7.5k), and Bowers -- all deserve some consideration. I’ll choose to save a little coin by giving Bowers the spotlight. He should once again demand a massive target share with Davante Adams now a New York Jet, Jakobi Meyers (ankle/doubtful) set to miss a second consecutive game, and backup TE Michael Mayer (personal) on the IR. In the last two weeks, Bowers’ 22 targets have equated to a monster 30.1% Target% and he has turned that volume into 17 receptions for 168 yards and a TD. This Raiders offense is ugly but Bowers is one piece we can trust and he’ll draw a plus match-up against a Rams defense that has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to TEs this season.

Dalton Schultz, HOU | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.2k | at GB

Schultz has been fairly disappointing this season as he has taken a backseat to an immensely talented WR room that features Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, and Tank Dell. Collins, who still stands as the NFL’s receiving leader (567 yards) even after missing week six, is of course on the IR with a hamstring injury. As a result. Schultz saw a season-high eight targets last week against the Patriots. The Texans won that game handily by a score of 41-21, so the offense didn’t need to be super aggressive. This game against the Packers brings much more back-and-forth shootout potential to the table. Some strong target volume should be there again for Schultz and he is more than due to find the endzone. Great match-up against Green Bay, who has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to TEs.

Grant Calcaterra, PHI | DK: $3.2k, FD: $5.1k | at NYG

Calcaterra isn’t dirt cheap but he is plenty affordable and will take on the TE1 role in place of the injured Dallas Goedert (hamstring/out). Goedert exited last week’s game after just three plays and Calcaterra went on to log a massive 92% snap% and he caught all four of his targets for 67 yards while running 24 routes on 27 Jalen Hurts dropbacks. The Giants haven’t been particularly friendly versus TEs, allowing the 8th fewest FPPG to the position, but they also haven’t exactly faced a tough tight end gauntlet -- the best TE they’ve faced up to this point was Jake Ferguson in week four, who turned in a decent day (7 receptions for 49 yards). We’ll see if Calcaterra can take advantage of a potential near-every-down role.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Buffalo Bills | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5k | vs. TEN

Mid-Range D/ST: Los Angeles Rams | DK: $3k, FD: $4.1k | vs. LV

Value D/ST: Detroit Lions | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.8k | at MIN

Contrarian D/ST: Philadelphia Eagles | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.7k | at NYG

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Running Back (Game Stack)

Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Chuba Hubbard

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Malik Nabers

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (FanDuel Main Slate Only SNF Game Stack)

Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, George Pickens

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, Christian Watson

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Kirk Cousins, Drake London, Darnell Mooney

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Saquon Barkley + Eagles D/ST

Full Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp (if active), Kyren Williams

Value Double Stack | Cheap QB + Two Pass Catchers

Andy Dalton, Diontae Johnson (if active), Xavier Legette

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp RB (From a low O/U game)

Josh Allen, Amari Cooper (if active), Tony Pollard

Sunday Night Football Showdown Cheat Sheet

New York Jets (-2) at Pittsburgh Steelers | 39.0 O/U

Jets: 20.5 Implied Points | Steelers: 18.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: [NYJ] TE Tyler Conklin - Questionable, [PIT] RB Cordarrelle Patterson - OUT, [PIT] WR Roman Wilson - Questionable

Score Prediction: Jets - 20, Steelers - 17

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Jets, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Steelers, 5-1 Jets

Sunday NFL Pick ‘Em ⚡

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No picks from me this Sunday but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props videos posted at the top of this newsletter!

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!