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Main Slate Rundown 📝

With no teams on bye this week, we’ll have a loaded 13-game Sunday main slate to sink our teeth into! As we near the midway point of the season, we have a fairly strong idea of what each team is capable of but, nonetheless, there are always some surprise results and individual performances that come about. We’ll see if we can crack the code and solve the puzzle. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• NE @ MIA: 15 mph sustained winds, 30+ mph gusts. Slight downgrade to the deep passing games.

• ATL @ TEN: Low-end chance for rain.

• MIN @ GB: Chilly temps around 40 degrees, but not so cold that it’ll impact the game much, if at all.

• JAX @ PIT: Late-game rain is a possibility.

• NYJ @ NYG: Rain is fairly likely, especially late.

• KC @ DEN: SNOW GAME ALERT? Temps around or just below freezing at gametime. Snow will be falling throughout the day on Saturday and into Sunday morning before tapering off to light snowfall around kickoff. Overall, the conditions should have a low impact on the game itself.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Lamar Jackson, BAL | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.8k | @ ARI

Most weeks this season have proven that you don’t need a high-end QB to snag takedowns, but last week was an exception as the elite QBs like Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen dominated their match-ups. Lamar Jackson needed just 21 completions against the Lions to rack up 357 yards and three touchdowns through the air while tacking on 36 yards and an additional touchdown on the ground. He’ll have a strong chance at back-to-back ceiling-type performances as he takes on a Cardinals defense that ranks 31st in both pass DVOA and total DVOA. The Cardinals are also allowing 43% more FPPG to QBs when playing at home (last nine games) and they’re allowing a 77.4% completion rate over their last four games. The Ravens are hefty -9.5 road favorites, so a blowout is a bit of a concern. But a blowout in week seven didn’t stop Jackson and the Ravens from staying aggressive and running up the score to 38 points. Patrick Mahomes (DK: $8.4k, FD: $9k) and Jalen Hurts (DK: $8.2k, FD: $9.2k) are also two elite QBs in great match-ups this Sunday. All three QBs provide a similar floor/ceiling combination, so Lamar Jackson gets the slight nod as the 3rd most expensive QB on both sites.

Dak Prescott, DAL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.3k | vs. LAR

Despite its wide game selection, there are no true standout DFS game environments on this slate. However, I do like the chances of this Rams @ Cowboys match-up turning into a bit of a shootout and Dallas ranks 4th on this slate with a 26.0 implied team total. Prescott makes some sense out of the mid-range as he takes on a Rams defense that is allowing the 3rd most FPPG to QBs over their last four games. Dak has not had a great season from a fantasy perspective, and he has thrown just six touchdowns against four interceptions through six games. However, he is coming off of a season-high 24.88 FP performance in the Cowboys’ last game (@ LAC) and Dallas is fresh off of their bye week. Though most of his fantasy scores have been lackluster, Prescott does rank 5th in the NFL in completion percentage (69.5%). If he can begin to see some positive regression in the touchdown department, Prescott could emerge as one of the better mid-range QB plays this Sunday.

Kenny Pickett, PIT | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.5k | vs. JAX

Jacksonville has allowed at least 20.6 FP to opposing QBs in 5-of-7 games this season along with 25.0 FPPG to QBs in road games. Pickett has developed strong rapport with the uber-talented second-year WR George Pickens and he’ll have his No. 2 WR, Diontae Johnson, back in the mix for just the third game this season. Pickett could be in line for some huge pass volume against a Jags D that is forcing the 3rd highest pass play percentage (65.8%) -- opposing QBs are averaging 45.3 att/gm versus Jacksonville in their last four games. We haven’t seen huge upside out of Pickens in his brief NFL career but, given his bottom-of-the-barrel DFS salaries, he’s in an intriguing spot as a value play this Sunday.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.2k | vs. CIN

CMC went into Monday Night Football with a questionable designation due to an oblique injury but he proved none the worse for wear and ended up playing 100% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps while extending his touchdown streak to 16 consecutive games. Expect another heavy dose of work for McCaffrey against a Bengals D that ranks 27th in rush DVOA. WR Deebo Samuel’s (shoulder/out) continued absence could also mean added receiving work for CMC and there is a slight possibility that the 49ers will get All-Pro LT Trent Williams back in action this Sunday, though it is far from a guarantee. If you have the salary to spare, you can rarely go wrong with the McCaffrey spend-up.

Alvin Kamara, NO | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.3k | @ IND

Kamara should be a popular play this week but, since returning from suspension in week four, his volume has been absurd. Not only is Kamara handling a traditional workhorse amount of carries this season (17.3 rushes/gm) but, since his return, he leads the Saints in target share (24.4%) with 9.8 targets/gm and 8.8 receptions/gm. RBs have been finding a ton of success against the Colts, who are allowing the 2nd most FPPG to the position over their last four games.

Isiah Pacheco, KC | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.4k | @ DEN

Even in a game where Patrick Mahomes threw for a season-high 424 yards, Isiah Pacheco continued to find a way to put up a strong fantasy score (16.0 DKFP/14.0 FDFP). He has garnered at least 17 touches in each of the last five games and now draws the fantasy-friendly Broncos match-up. Denver has allowed the most FPPG to RBs this season and ranks 31st in rush DVOA. With freezing temps and some snow possibly in play for this game where the Chiefs are touchdown road favorites, a Pacheco-heavy game script could certainly be in order.

Breece Hall, NYJ | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.2k | @ NYG

Hall has played his highest snap shares of the season across the last two weeks, and he has responded with his best two fantasy performances of the season while combining for 216 yards rushing on 34 carries (6.4 YPC) and two touchdowns while catching all eight of his targets for an additional 71 yards. Hall should maintain his momentum against a Giants defense that ranks 30th in rush DVOA and has allowed the second-highest rate of 10+ yard rushes (15.1%) along with 1.1 touchdowns/gm allowed to RBs. Hall will be another chalky RB this week but his match-up and the recent uptick in snaps makes him a scary fade. Eating “good chalk” isn’t a bad thing.

Cam Akers, MIN | DK: $4.8k, FD: $5.2k | @ GB

This is, by all means, a pure GPP dart throw. The Vikings have yet to score a rushing touchdown this season while perennial plodder Alexander Mattison struggles to get anything going on the ground. Akers logged a season-high 39% snap% in week seven and he just looked like the better back. Despite playing 10 fewer snaps, Akers out-touched Mattison 12-to-10 and out-gained him with 61 total yards to Mattison’s 42. While the volume is highly questionable for Akers in week eight, it is a terrific match-up against a Packers defense that checks in at 26th in rush DVOA and allows the 3rd most FPPG to RBs.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

AJ Brown, PHI | DK: $8k, FD: $8.7k | @ WAS

DeVonta Smith, PHI | DK: $6.7k, FD: $6.7k | @ WAS

I want to put a spotlight on both star Eagles WRs this week. AJ Brown sets up as quite an obvious play. He has scored at least 21.7 DKFP with at least 127 receiving yards in five consecutive games. In that stretch, he owns a massive 33.5% target% and 50.3% air yard%. Smith has taken a clear backseat to Brown in that stretch, but I have a sneaking suspicion that the former will get back on track this week and narrow the production gap that has been extremely wide in Philly’s last handful of games. On the season, Smith still owns a rock-solid 21.9% target% and 31.2% air yard%. And, perhaps most importantly, both guys could have a big day against a Commanders secondary that is 27th in pass DVOA and has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Brown: 78% perimeter%, Smith: 69% perimeter%). Brown profiles as the safer play but there is a huge amount of leverage to be gained by buying some Smith shares as well. Smith should check in with around 5% ownership on this slate.

Adam Thielen, CAR | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.2k | vs. HOU

FanDuel has woken up and finally priced Thielen with a deserving $8,200 salary, but he remains around $1,000 too cheap on DraftKings. Since week two, Thielen ranks 9th in the NFL in target share (30.2%) and his 24.3 FPPG leads all NFL receivers. He has run 75% of his routes out of the slot, which happens to be where the softest match-up is in the Texans' secondary (14th most FPPG allowed to slot WRs). As rough of a rookie season QB Bryce Young has had, he is rarely off-target when his receivers get open and it has helped lead to an elite 83.1% catch% for Thielen this season. Thielen has also been Young’s go-to receiver in the redzone based on Thielen’s 36.8% RZ target%.

Christian Kirk, JAX | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7k | @ PIT

No Zay Jones (knee) again this week so we’ll look for Kirk to continue his consistent run. Kirk has scored no fewer than 13.9 DKFP in six consecutive games. In that span, he has seen a team-high 25.2% target% while scoring three touchdowns and averaging 6.3 rec/gm for 77.5 YPG. The Steelers have been extremely generous to opposing WRs, allowing the 3rd most FPPG to the position this season. Kirk, who runs out of the slot on 73% of plays, will also largely avoid the coverage of Joey Porter Jr., who almost exclusively mans the right perimeter. Porter Jr. has been, by far, the only quality coverage corner in the Steelers secondary, owning a coverage rating of 82.2 by PFF.com. Kirk will mostly face struggling CBs Chandon Sullivan and Patrick Peterson, who own 45.4 and 55.7 coverage grades, respectively.

Christian Watson, GB | DK: $5.1k, FD: $6.3k | vs. MIN

Watson has yet to have a breakout performance since returning to the field three games ago, but he is essentially back to an every-down role after logging 88% and 84% snap shares in the last two weeks. If QB Jordan Love can bounce back from a couple of ugly starts, Watson draws an outstanding match-up with a Vikings secondary that allows the 2nd most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Watson: 75% perimeter%).

Josh Downs, IND | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.1k | vs. NO

Downs has displayed a clear connection with Gardner Minshew this season and he has averaged 16.8 PPR points/gm in Minshew’s three starts this season. Downs, who has run out of the slot on 83% of plays, also draws an intriguing match-up. The Saints’ secondary is remarkably stingy on the boundaries, allowing the fewest FPPG to perimeter WRs. However, out of the slot, which is manned by CB Alontae Taylor, the Saints have allowed the 7th most FPPG to opposing slot WRs. We’ll look for Downs to continue his productive ways with Minshew at the helm.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

George Kittle, SF | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.1k | vs. CIN

Kittle feels a touch too cheap on both sites this week and, with no Deebo Samuel, his target share should be a bit more reliable. Kittle led the team in receiving with Samuel out last week and he’ll face a Bengals defense that ranks 27th in TE DVOA and has allowed the 6th most FPPG to the position.

Jake Ferguson, DAL | DK: $3.6k, FD: $4.9k | vs. LAR

Defending the tight end position has not been a strength of this Rams defense. They check in at 30th in TE DVOA and have allowed the 2nd most FPPG to TEs over their last four games. Ferguson has not broken through with a huge game yet but he logged a season-high 86% snap% in week six, ahead of the Cowboys’ bye. Ferguson is also seeing a healthy 28.6% redzone target%. He has just one touchdown on the season thus far but I like his chances of finding the endzone this Sunday. But, at the very least, he should rack up some solid receiving volume in this match-up.

Chig Okonkwo, TEN | DK: $3k, FD: $4.7k | vs. ATL

A lot of people are going to target Cardinals’ tight end Trey McBride (DK: $2.8k, FD: $4.7k) when looking for a cheap TE play this week. It could work out but, at the same time, McBride draws a brutal match-up (Ravens: 2nd fewest FPPG to TEs) and tight end chalk is the best type of chalk to fade or lower exposure to. So we arrive at a cheap TE pivot play in Chig Okonkwo. This could fail miserably but Okonkwo has played 71% of the snaps this season and he could operate as a safety net for QBs Will Levis and Malik Willis, who are both expected to see action at QB this week in place of the injured Ryan Tannehill (ankle/out). On paper, this is a solid match-up against the Falcons, who have allowed the 10th most FPPG to TEs this season.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Baltimore Ravens | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.9k | @ ARI

Value D/ST: Atlanta Falcons | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. TEN

Contrarian D/ST: Minnesota Vikings | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.7k | @ GB

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, Puka Nacua

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

CJ Stroud, Nico Collins, Adam Thielen

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Breece Hall + Jets D/ST

Value QB/WR/WR Double Stack

Kenny Pickett, George Pickens, Diontae Johnson

Full Team Stack - QB/TE/RB

Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp RB

Garnder Minshew, Josh Downs, Alvin Kamara

Touchdown Call 🏈

Breece Hall, NYJ | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.2k | @ NYG

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Breece Hall MORE than 2.5 Receptions

Alvin Kamara MORE than 53.5 Rush Yards

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!