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Main Slate Rundown 📝

With no teams on a bye in week eight, we’ll have a monster Sunday main slate ahead of us -- 13 games on DraftKings and 14 games on FanDuel with the inclusion of the SNF game (DAL @ SF). It’s a doozy so we’re just going to get right down to business and highlight some plays for this week’s action! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• ARI @ MIA (1:00 ET, 46.5 O/U): 15+ mph winds.

• BUF @ SEA (4:05 ET, 46.0 O/U): Intermittent periods of rain are expected.

• DAL @ SF (8:20 ET, 47.0 O/U): 10-15 mph winds.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jordan Love, GB | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.9k | at JAX

Interceptions have been a problem, but Love is still getting it done from a fantasy perspective, averaging 3.3 pass TDs/G L4Games. Love and the Packers' aerial attack should flourish against a Jags defense that ranks dead last in pass DVOA and has allowed the most adjusted FPPG to QBs. Coming off of a two-week stay across the pond probably isn’t doing the Jags’ players any favors either.

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7k | vs. ARI

Tua has had five weeks to unscramble his brain, and after clearing the NFL’s concussion protocol, he has been cleared to suit up in week eight. It’s an intriguing spot for Tagovailoa, whose DFS prices have plummeted while he’s been sidelined. The Cardinals are 29th in pass DVOA and have allowed 24.6 FPPG to QBs on the road this season.

Jameis Winston, CLE | DK: $5.2k, FD: $6.5k | vs. BAL

If you want to live life on the wild side, Jameis Winston is back under center as a starting NFL QB and we know that he’s going to want to sling it. He’s limited on receiving talent but does draw a promising match-up against a very beatable Ravens pass defense that has allowed 23.2 FPPG to QBs this season and 29.7 FPPG to QBs when playing on the road.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Joe Mixon, HOU | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9k | vs. IND

Mixon has gone above 28+ fantasy points in all three games that he’s been healthy. He should operate as a true workhorse for a Texans offense that is very capable of moving the ball up and down the field. The Colts have allowed +66% more FPPG to RBs when away (last nine) and give up a ton of yards after initial contact.

Breece Hall, NYJ | DK: $7.3k, FD: $7.9k | at NE

Hall has been outstanding in the two games under the new Jets coaching regime. His 87% snap% in week six and 82% snap% in week seven were both season-highs and he has seen 15 total targets in those two contests. The Jets are desperate for a win so they should be featuring their stars plenty in this match-up and there is nothing scary about the Pats run defense, which ranks 28th in rush DVOA and has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to RBs.

Kareem Hunt, KC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.1k | at LV

Hunt is still far too cheap on DraftKings, considering he has handled 52 total touches and has punched in three TDs in the Chiefs’ last two games. Kansas City (-9.5) is a heavy favorite here, so the game script should favor a run-heavy approach, and the Raiders check in at 27th in rush DVOA. About 70 yards rushing with a TD feels like Hunt’s floor in this one. And his day could certainly end up being much better than that.

De’Von Achane, MIA | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.8k | vs. ARI

The return of Tua should raise the floor and ceilings for all of the primary Dolphins' skill position players. The Miami offense has been abysmal, with Tagovailoa sidelined, but the DFS prices for the fantasy-relevant guys have also plummeted. We know Achane has an astronomical ceiling so he’ll be worthy of some lineup shares this Sunday.

Javonte Williams, DEN | DK: $6k, FD: $6k | vs. CAR

The Broncos’ backfield still has too many moving parts for my liking, but Williams should once again take on the lion’s share of the work following a standout week seven performance where he combined for 111 total yards on 17 touches (6.5 yards/touch) and punched in two TDs. You probably don’t need me to tell you the Panther's match-up is a great one, but that’s exactly what it is -- Carolina is dead last in rush DVOA, and they have really struggled versus RBs in recent weeks, allowing 36.3 DKFP/GM and 34.5 FDFP/gm to the position L4Games.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

AJ Brown, PHI | DK: $8.2k, FD: $9k | at CIN

Brown has secured at least 89 yards and a TD in all three games that he has played this season, and he leads all NFL receivers in yards per route run (4.2). QB Jalen Hurts has misfired on several of the targets directed at Brown, but on targets deemed “catchable”, AJ Brown has a 100% catch rate. There should be plenty of offense and scoring happening in this game, and the Bengals have allowed the 6th most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Brown: 76% PerimeterRoute%).

Drake London, ATL | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.9k | at TB

London’s last performance against Tampa Bay (12 rec, 154 yds, 1 TD) will be tough to replicate, but he has averaged 10.8 targets/gm L4Weeks and owns an absolute monster 48.0% RedZone Target%. He’s about as strong of an anytime touchdown scorer, bet that you will find at the WR position, and he sets up very well from a DFS perspective once again.

Tyreek Hill, MIA | DK: $7k, FD: $7.6k | vs. ARI

By now, you get the gist. With Tua back, all of the Dolphins' key weapons are firmly back in play for DFS purposes. Tyreek is listed as questionable with a foot injury but all signs are pointing toward him suiting up. If this Dolphins offense can switch back into gear immediately with Tua back at the helm, the Tyreek is about $2,000 underpriced on both sites. Jaylen Waddle (DK: $5.4k, FD: $5.9k) should also command some consideration at his depressed price points.

Amari Cooper, BUF | DK: $6k, FD: $7.1k | at SEA

Cooper played just 19 snaps (35% snap%) in his week seven Bills debut but that was enough time for him to make an impact as he caught 4-of-5 targets for 66 yards and a TD. With another week to learn the playbook and get in practice reps with Josh Allen, Cooper’s involvement should only continue to increase. A somewhat bold, but completely reasonable, expectation for Cooper in week eight is that he plays 70+% of snaps and commands 10+ targets.

DeAndre Hopkins, KC | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.4k | at LV

DHop was just traded to the Chiefs a few days ago so there is no guarantee he’ll be ready to make his debut this Sunday but HC Andy Reid has stated that he intends to get him involved right away, so we’ll assume he’s in this week. Hopkins is still priced as if he’s a member of the anemic Will Levis-led Titans offense and, while he’ll be a safer DFS option in another week or two, you can’t ignore the potential upside that Hopkins brings to the table with Mahomes as his QB even if he only plays around half of the offensive snaps this week.

Jalen McMillan, TB | DK: $3.7k, FD: $4.9k | vs. ATL

The Bucs have lost Chris Godwin (ankle) for the remainder of the season, and Mike Evans (hamstring) is considered week-to-week and likely won’t return until after their week 11 bye. So there are clearly some job openings in the Bucs WR room, and Jalen McMillan would be my bet to take over as the interim top Bucs WR. Before missing a couple of games due to a hamstring injury, McMillan logged snap percentages of 83%, 79%, and 77% over the first three games of the season. By all indications, he was the WR3 behind Evans and Godwin before, so I see no reason to believe he won’t be a go-to target for QB Baker Mayfield moving forward. Sterling Shepard (DK: $3.8k, FD: $5.1k) and Trey Palmer (DK: $3.5k, FD: $4k) will also have some cheap WR appeal, but McMillan should be the guy to trust most.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Brock Bowers, LV | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.4k | vs. KC

Guaranteed high target volume is hard to come by at the TE position, but Bowers has that on lockdown after receiving 36 total targets across the last three games (12.0 targets/gm). It hasn’t really mattered who the Raiders’ QB is, they’re going to look Bowers’ way early and often. It’s hard to hate the match-up as covering the tight end has been one major point of weakness for the Chiefs. They have allowed 7.2 rec/gm, 83.5 YPG, and the most FPPG to TEs this season.

David Njoku, CLE | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.5k | vs. BAL

Njoku could very well be the number-one receiving option in this Browns offense following the exodus of Amari Cooper to Buffalo. He saw a whopping 14 targets in week seven, and while most of those looks came from Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Jameis Winston also sent multiple targets in Njoku’s direction when he eventually took over at QB. Baltimore has yet to allow a touchdown to any tight end this season, yet they have still given up the 5th most FPPG to the position.

Cade Otton, TB | DK: $3.5k, FD: $5.2k | vs. ATL

Otton will probably be a popular value play this week but it’s hard to imagine a scenario where he doesn’t command solid target volume following the injuries to the Bucs’ top two WRs. Otton was Baker Mayfield’s go-to option late in the second half against Baltimore, which ended with Otton catching 8-of-10 targets for 100 yards.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Denver Broncos | DK: $3.7k, FD: $5k | vs. CAR

Mid-Range D/ST: Green Bay Packers | DK: $3.2k, FD: $4.6k | at JAX

Value D/ST: Atlanta Falcons | DK: $2.6k, FD: $3.6k | at TB

DraftKings Value D/ST: Chicago Bears | DK: $2.7k, FD: $4.4k | at WAS (Major bump if J. Daniels is out)

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Running Back (Game Stack)

Jordan Love, Jayden Reed, Tank Bigsby (preferred if Etienne is out)

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, Ja’Marr Chase

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (FanDuel Main Slate Only SNF Game Stack)

Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel (questionable), CeeDee Lamb

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers (questionable), Rashod Bateman

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Javonte Williams + Broncos D/ST

Full Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, De’Von Achane

Value Double Stack | Cheap QB + Two Pass Catchers

Baker Mayfield, Jalen McMillan, Cade Otton

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp Receiver (From a low O/U game)

Patrick Mahomes, DeAndre Hopkins (if active), Brock Bowers

Sunday Night Football Showdown Cheat Sheet

Dallas Cowboys at San Francisco 49ers (-4) | 47.0 O/U

Cowboys: 21.5 Implied Points | 49ers: 25.5 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: [SF] RB Christian McCaffrey - OUT/IR, [SF] WR Brandon Aiyuk - OUT/IR, [SF] WR Deebo Samuel - Questionable, [SF] TE George Kittle - Questionable, [SF] WR Jauan Jennings - OUT, [SF] K Jake Moody - OUT, [DAL] WR Brandin Cooks - OUT/IR

Score Prediction: Cowboys - 24, 49ers - 20

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Cowboys, 4-2 49ers

Sunday NFL Pick ‘Em ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

No picks from me this Sunday but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props videos posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

Speaking of props, put the Props Edge+ tool to use by signing up for PrizePicks (Promo code: BETFULLY) or Underdog (Promo code: LINESTAR). 100% match on deposits up to $100 PLUS a free two-month subscription to LineStar Premium. Many people may not realize that you can legally place prop bets in most states using UnderDog (or PrizePicks) – it’s called Pick'Em, and it’s incredibly easy.

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!