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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Week 9 brings us a juicy 11-game Sunday main slate! Unlike recent weeks, this one features several lopsided matchups — but also plenty of potential fireworks, with five games sporting totals north of 48 points. With so many shootouts in play, there are endless angles to attack. And as always, the less “glamorous” spots can’t be overlooked either. Let’s piece it all together for another profitable NFL Sunday. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report 🌦️

• LAC at TEN (1:00 ET, 43.5 O/U): Rain is possible in the AM, but the skies should be clear, or in the process of clearing, by kickoff. Nothing too concerning.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Patrick Mahomes, KC | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.5k | at BUF

There are many ways to approach this slate at QB, but if you’re spending up at the position, Mahomes has given us plenty of reasons to pay the premium for him. With a 25.4 FPPG average, Mahomes has been the QB1 on the season. He has put together his best statistical season in years and heads into this matchup with at least three TD passes in four of his last five games. This showdown between Mahomes’ Chiefs and Josh Allen’s Bills has routinely produced high-scoring shootouts, and, to no surprise, this game leads the slate with a 52.5 over/under, and it also owns the closest spread (KC -1.5). Mahomes is also on pace for, by far, his most productive season as a rusher. He is averaging 35.0 rush YPG so far this season, which is a sizable step up from his previous season-high of 24.3 rush YPG back in 2023. With lead RB Isiah Pacheco (knee) out this week, Mahomes should continue to be a factor as a runner, but, perhaps more importantly, he may be asked to do even more with his arm. The Bills have been fairly stingy through the air and have allowed the second-fewest FPPG to QBs this season. However, they’re a middling 14th in pass DVOA, so the matchup may not be as sketchy as it appears on the surface. Mahomes is also averaging the 5th-most yards per dropback against zone coverage, which the Bills have run 65% of the time.

Daniel Jones, IND | DK: $6.2k, FD: $7.9k | at PIT

Few players, if any, have increased their value more than Daniel Jones this season. We are at the halfway point in the season, and he is legitimately in the MVP race. Between Jones and star RB Jonathan Taylor, this has been arguably the most balanced and unstoppable offense in the NFL. Jones heads into week nine ranking 6th or better, among all QBs, in pass YPG, yards per completion, passing success rate, QBR, and passer rating. He hasn’t needed to run the ball a ton, thanks to Taylor’s dominance out of the backfield, but he does have four rushing TDs on the season and, overall, he is the QB6 in fantasy scoring. The matchup looks strong, as the Steelers have allowed an average of 318.3 pass YPG and 23.8 FPPG to QBs over their last four games. The four QBs they’ve faced in that stretch? Jordan Love, Joe Flacco, Dillon Gabriel, and Carson Wentz.

Jaxson Dart, NYG | DK: $5.2k, FD: $7.4k | vs. SF

It’s a little surprising that we’re still getting Jaxson Dart at these price points, especially on DraftKings, where he is the 15th most expensive QB option. Since taking over as the Giants’ starting QB in week four, Dart has ranked as the QB6 in FPPG. He has mostly done this without top WR Malik Nabers, who is out for the year, and now he’ll have to continue to shoulder the load with emerging rookie RB Cam Skattebo going down for the season after sustaining an ugly ankle injury last week. He’s been very effective with his rushing ability, with 39.0 rush YPG in his five starts, which includes a rushing TD in four of those games. Dart has also been putting up his strong numbers against stiff competition, having faced Denver, Philadelphia (twice), and the Chargers -- all quality defenses. The banged-up 49ers represent a beatable matchup for Dart as they head in having allowed the 6th-most FPPG to QBs over their last four games.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Christian McCaffrey, SF | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.5k | at NYG

The CMC leverage play didn’t pan out last week, but it’s a prime spot for an immediate bounce back. McCaffrey continues to blow away every other RB in the NFL when it comes to his involvement as a receiver. His 9.3 targets/gm and 27.3% Target% is the type of volume that many teams’ WR1s do not see. And, while it hasn’t been smooth sledding for McCaffrey running the ball this season, he should find some room against a Giants defense that ranks dead last in rush DVOA. I’ll be mildly surprised if CMC doesn’t go for 120+ scrimmage yards with at least one TD in this game and, if you’re rolling with Dart at QB, he makes for an ideal bring-back play.

Kyren Williams, LAR | DK: $6.8k, FD: $8k | vs. NO

The implied game script looks ideal for Kyren Williams this week. The Rams are massive 14-point home favorites over the Saints, who will be rolling out rookie QB Tyler Shough for his first career start. Williams hasn’t put up an overly impressive season, but he’s locked into great volume, and his 76% snap% trails only Jonathan Taylor (86%) and CMC (85%) at the RB position on this slate. Williams is also averaging +31.2% more FPPG in domed stadiums, and the Saints are allowing +56% more FPPG to RBs when playing on the road.

Kimani Vidal, LAC | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.7k | at TEN

In two positive game scripts (Wk6 & Wk8) since filling in for the injured Omarion Hampton, Kimani Vidal has totaled 265 scrimmage yards with two TDs on 45 combined touches (22.5 touches/gm). He also played a season-high 74% snap% in week eight. We should expect the game script to once again work in Vidal’s favor as the Chargers step in as 9.5-point road favorites against the 1-7 Titans. Tennessee is allowing the 3rd-most adjusted FPPG, as well as 1.5 TDs/gm, to RBs this season. And, with backup RB Hassan Haskins joining Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris on the IR, there is very little competition for Vidal in regard to RB touches.

TreVeyon Henderson, NE | DK: $4.9k, FD: $5.3k | vs. ATL

Henderson was arguably the most hyped rookie RB heading into this season, but the Pats have been bringing him along slowly over the first half of the season, giving him just 8.6 touches/gm on a 33% snap%. Now, with lead RB Rhamondre Stevenson set to miss his first game of the season due to a toe injury, Henderson should have a chance to shine as the Pats look to go for a sixth consecutive win. The only other healthy RB on the Pats’ active roster at this time is Terrell Jennings, a second-year undrafted RB out of Florida A&M who has 20 career carries. The Falcons also represent an intriguing matchup. They’ve been excellent against the pass (8th in pass DVOA), but they’ve been very beatable, especially lately, on the ground (23rd in rush DVOA). Over their last four games, the Falcons have allowed 167.8 total YPG to RBs as well as the 4th-most FPPG.

Kyle Monangai, CHI | DK: $4.6k, FD: $5.2k | at CIN

We’ll have another enticing rookie RB to consider on this slate in Kyle Monangai. Both D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson have been ruled out, which leaves Monangai as the clear RB1 in week nine. Monangai, a seventh-round rookie out of Rutgers, has looked solid in his limited opportunities, averaging 4.4 YPC and 10.2 yards/catch. Monangai had a mini breakout a couple of weeks ago in a comfortable 12-point win over the Saints when he took 15 touches for 94 total yards and a TD. I’d imagine he gets at least 15 touches this week, and the matchup doesn’t get much better. The Bengals check in at 31st in rush DVOA and have allowed THE most FPPG to RBs this season.

Brashard Smith, KC | DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.6k | at BUF

This will be a much riskier option, but if you want to pivot away from some of the chalkier RB plays on this slate, Brashard Smith has some appeal. As noted in the Mahomes write-up, lead RB Isiah Pacheco will be out for this game. While that likely means more work for Kareem Hunt (DK: $4.7k, FD: $5.9k) as the primary RB, Smith could also be a real factor. His usage was trending up prior to last week, and he seems to be favored as a pass-catching option out of the backfield. Smith has also had 10 redzone opportunities this season, so he may not be just a “between the 20s” guy. I would expect Hunt to be the main goal-line back, but look for the Chiefs to get Smith involved a decent amount in a game that could see a lot of productive possessions and scoring.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN | DK: $8.4k, FD: $9.7k | vs. CHI

It’s safe to say Ja’Marr Chase is back to being that guy. Since Joe Flacco took over at QB, feeding Chase has been a top priority, and the numbers back it up -- a ridiculous 46% target share across three games, including north of 50% in each of the last two with 42 total targets heading in Chase’s direction. That’s historic-level volume, and unsurprisingly, it’s led to elite fantasy output with back-to-back 30+ PPR performances. The Bears have been tougher on the ground lately but are still beatable through the air, ranking 24th in pass DVOA, and this matchup carries one of the week’s highest totals at 51.5 points. With the Bengals’ run game sputtering and Flacco averaging nearly 40 pass attempts/gm since coming over to Cincy, we can safely expect another heavy dose of Chase. On a slate loaded with strong value plays, he’s one of the most appealing high-end options to build around. We do have to keep in mind that Flacco is officially questionable for this game with an AC joint sprain in his throwing shoulder. That’s not ideal, but he has said that he intends to play this Sunday.

Rashee Rice, KC | DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.2k | at BUF

After a limited debut, where he played only 41% of snaps (but still saw 10 targets), Rice’s usage has skyrocketed, jumping from 48% to 83% route participation while commanding a 29% target share in Week 2. His snap% also more than doubled to 86%. Rice has turned that volume into 16 catches, 135 yards, and three TDs over two games, quickly cementing himself as Patrick Mahomes’ go-to option. His shallow 2.8-yard aDOT caps his big-play upside a bit, but with Mahomes peppering him with short, high-percentage looks, the floor is rock-solid -- and the redzone involvement helps offset the lack of deep shots. With this Bills-Chiefs matchup owning the highest total on the slate (52.5), Rice profiles as an underpriced WR1 in a potential shootout and one of the most appealing mid-to-upper-tier pieces to build around this week.

Michael Pittman Jr., IND | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.2k | at PIT

Pittman continues to fly under the radar, typically checking in under 10% ownership on main slates this season. But he has quietly ranked as the WR10 in FPPG and has had a knack for the endzone, with a touchdown in 6-of-8 games this season. Pittman doesn’t command a massive target share like many other WR1s, but his 23.4% Target% remains strong, and he has caught 76.8% of his targets this season. Pittman (78% PerimeterRoute%) sets up well versus a Steelers’ secondary that has allowed the 4th-most FPPG to perimeter WRs, and allowed THE most FPPG to WRs over their last four games.

DK Metcalf, PIT | DK: $5.5k, FD: $7.6k | vs. IND

On the other side of the matchup from the aforementioned Pittman, we should keep DK Metcalf on the radar. Metcalf has had some strong production over the last four games, averaging 81.5 YPG with three TDs. No other Steelers’ WR has emerged as a reliable option, so it’s essentially been Metcalf and a mash-up of the Steelers’ tight ends accounting for most of the receiving production. Metcalf sees a positive matchup against a Colts secondary that has allowed the 2nd-most adjusted FPPG to WRs this season and the 5th-most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Metcalf: 78% PerimeterRoute%).

Khalil Shakir, BUF | DK: $5.3k, FD: $6.1k | vs. KC

We’ve shown some love to the Chiefs’ side of this game, but we can’t ignore the Bills' side of things if we do indeed get a high-scoring shootout from this matchup. Josh Allen continues to spread the wealth, but Shakir has emerged as his most consistent target lately, posting at least a 24% target share in three of his last four games and hitting 30% in two of those. That volume has translated into strong results, with two top-15 WR finishes over that stretch -- including a WR7 performance in Week 8. With Joshua Palmer sidelined again, Shakir should continue to see an expanded role in a high-paced matchup against the Chiefs. At his current price points, he offers excellent value as a mid-tier WR play in the slate’s highest-total game.

Wan’Dale Robinson, NYG | DK: $5.1k, FD: $5.9k | vs. SF

It’s been a tough stretch for the Giants, losing both Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo to season-ending injuries, but Wan’Dale Robinson has stepped up as Jaxson Dart’s go-to weapon. Over his last five games, Robinson owns a steady 25% Target% and has topped 15.5 PPR points in two of his last three outings. With the Giants now relying heavily on their short-area passing game, Robinson’s quickness and YAC ability fit perfectly with Dart’s skill set. The matchup also sets up nicely against a banged-up 49ers defense that’s been struggling without Fred Warner, giving up 475 total yards to Houston last week. At this price, Robinson offers affordable access to solid volume in a quietly intriguing game environment.

Chimere Dike, TEN | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.3k | vs. LAC

There hasn’t been much to love, or even vaguely like, about this Titans offense as it pertains to DFS (or real life). But they are going to find themselves playing from behind basically every week and, as 9.5-point home underdogs, that’s a likely scenario again this Sunday. Tennessee has been without top WR Calvin Ridley (hamstring) for the last two games, and he’s been ruled out for week nine as well. For a team desperate for playmakers, Chimere Dike has stepped up the last two weeks, catching all 11 of his targets for 163 yards and a TD. He got up to a season-high 89% snap% last week and, though he plays primarily out of the slot, he should be peppered with higher-percentage targets. The Chargers have been pretty stout against slot WRs this season, but they’ll also be without starting slot CB Tarheeb Still (knee) for the first time this season.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Tyler Warren, IND | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.7k | at PIT

Warren has made an immediate impact after the Colts took him with the 14th overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft. He leads all NFL TEs with 492 receiving yards, his 20.9% Target% is excellent by tight end standards, and he has commanded 30% of the team’s endzone targets. The Steelers’ defense has also been awful at defending the TE position, allowing the 2nd-most FPPG, 79.3 YPG, and 0.9 TDs/gm to TEs this season. Most probably remember Tucker Kraft utterly dominating them on SNF last week, racking up a 7-143-2 receiving line. If the target volume is there, Warren absolutely has the chops to put up a stellar stat line as well.

Brock Bowers, LV | DK: $5k, FD: $6.8k | vs. JAX

Heading into 2025, Bowers was widely viewed as the top tight end in football -- and his rookie season backed it up. He made history with 112 catches, 1,194 yards, and five touchdowns, becoming the only tight end ever to top 80 receptions and 1,000 yards in his debut year. Injuries have derailed his sophomore campaign so far, but after missing three games and getting an extra week to heal over the Raiders’ bye, he’s finally trending back toward full strength. Bowers practiced in full all week and should immediately return as the centerpiece of the passing game. Last season, he ranked second among all tight ends with a 26% Target% -- a number that jumped to 28% after Davante Adams’ departure. If he settles back into anything close to that workload, Bowers has the ceiling to reclaim elite fantasy status in a hurry, so he’s an intriguing low-owned option on this slate. The matchup with the Jags is also appealing as they’ve ranked 24th in TE DVOA and have allowed 79.3 YPG and 0.8 TDs/gm to TEs over their last four.

Juwan Johnson, NO | DK: $3.2k, FD: $5.1k | at LAR

Johnson was a trendy TE to start the year, but he became less of a factor after week three. However, he has re-emerged in the last two weeks, where he has seen 15 total targets, resulting in 10 catches for 132 yards. He has played 88% of snaps this season, which is 3rd among TEs on this slate. And, with the Saints turning things over to rookie QB Tyler Shough, Johnson could be peppered with targets once again in a likely trailing game script (NO +14 underdogs). This offense isn’t all too appealing, but inexperienced QBs often rely on their TEs as a safety blanket, and, at his low-end price points, Johnson doesn’t necessarily need to find the endzone to end up as a solid value.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Los Angeles Rams | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.9k | vs. NO

Mid-Range D/ST: Jacksonville Jaguars | DK: $3.3k, FD: $4.1k | at LV

Value D/ST: Houston Texans | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3.9k | vs. DEN

Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!