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Main Slate Rundown 📝

Another interesting Sunday of NFL action lies ahead for week nine! Unfortunately, for main slate purposes, the two most intriguing games of the week are a pair of island games -- Chiefs vs. Dolphins in the Frankfurt, Germany game, and Bengals vs. Bills on Sunday Night Football. That leaves us with a 10-game main slate to delve into. We may be staring down at plenty of “offensively challenged” games with seven contests holding a ≤ 41 over/under. No matter! Some of these match-ups will exceed expectations and we’ll make the best of what we have to work with!

Quick note: it’s been a busy Saturday so my apologies for this newsletter going out later than usual. I’m still giving these recommended plays the same level of research as usual, but I’ll shorten some of the player spotlights a bit so I can get this delivered and posted ASAP. Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

No noteworthy weather conditions in any game this week!

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $8k, FD: $9k | vs. DAL

As is typically the case for most main slates, spending up on a QB doesn’t take priority but with plenty of value options out there at other positions and a shortage of high-end QBs on this slate, you can’t really go wrong taking the high floor that Jalen Hurts provides. Hurts has scored no fewer than 21.88 FP in seven consecutive games and he’s averaging 26.2 DKFP/24.9 FDFP at home this season. Sure, it’s not an easy match-up against a Dallas defense that ranks 3rd in pass DVOA and has allowed the 4th fewest FPPG to QBs this season, but Jalen Hurts is about as match-up proof as it gets at the QB position and it certainly helps that he has punched in at least one rushing TD in 5-of-8 games this season. This game also sticks out on a likely low-scoring slate given its slate-high 47 over/under.

Deshaun Watson, CLE | $5.4k, FD: $7k | vs. ARI

I take no pleasure in recommending Watson here but the reality is that it’s a strong spot for the Browns’ passing attack to put up big numbers at low ownership. It’s safe to say that Watson’s tenure in Cleveland has been filled with disappointment but he could be due for one of his best performances we’ve seen in quite some time. The Cardinals are 29th in pass DVOA and they’re allowing a 70.8% completion% to QBs this season. Everyone will expect the Browns offense to just run a ground-and-pound attack in what should be a fairly easy win. And that very well might be what comes to fruition, especially with Watson not being 100% heading into this week. But there’s significant leverage to be had if Watson looks like a good quarterback again versus this vulnerable Arizona defense.

Mac Jones, NE | DK: $4.9k, FD: $6.6k | vs. WAS

We’ll keep the crazy train rolling with this final QB recommendation. This is almost exclusively a match-up-dependent play. The Commanders have simply been awful against the pass, ranking 30th in pass DVOA and allowing the 2nd most FPPG to QBs. They also traded away their two best edge rushers ahead of this past week’s NFL trade deadline, sending Montez Sweat to the Bears and Chase Young to the 49ers. While it is a dream match-up that we’re focusing on, there are also some positive notes on Mac Jones. Of course, he is cheap as hell in DFS, which is a major selling point. But he’s also playing a bit better in general as of late with his second and third multi-touchdown performances of the season coming in the last two weeks. Finally, he’s been MUCH better at home this season, where he is averaging +73.1% more FPPG than on the road. There are some concerns about his receiving weapons, or lack thereof, with WR Kendrick Bourne suffering a season-ending ACL injury last week and WR DeVante Parker (concussion) ruled out for this week. But we’re not looking for some kind of transcendent performance out of Mac Jones in this game. If he simply limited the major mistakes, he’ll have an easy pathway to returning value versus this very forgiving Washington defense.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Saquon Barkley, NYG | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.6k | @ LV

First off, I have no issues with the Alvin Kamara (DK: $8.1k, FD: $9.2k) play, if you’re spending up at RB. I just believe Saquon will provide a similar floor and ceiling combination (as Kamara), both at a cheaper price tag and at around half of the ownership. Since returning from his ankle injury three games ago, the Giants have not been shy about giving their stud RB all of the touches he can handle. In those three games, Barkley is averaging 27 carries/gm and 4.7 targets/gm. But we’re going to love the match-up against a Raiders team that is amid some coaching/management turnover. Las Vegas has ranked 29th in rush DVOA this season and they’ve surrendered THE most FPPG to RBs over the last four weeks. The key to the Giants winning this game as slight two-point road underdogs will be to simply feed Saquon Barkley touches all afternoon.

Jonathan Taylor, IND | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8k | @ CAR

Taylor is still going to split work with Zack Moss, but he has seen his snap rate increase each week since returning to action in week five. Since then, Taylor’s game-by-game snap% has gone as follows: 15% (very limited in his first week back), 42%, 50%, and, most recently, 61%. If we can get 20+ touches out of Taylor this week, it’s hard to imagine that he’ll fail to return value against a putrid Panthers run defense that ranks dead last in rush DVOA and has allowed the 2nd most FPPG to RBs and 1.71 rushing TDs/gm this season.

Bijan Robinson, ATL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.1k | vs. MIN

The results have been lackluster for Bijan as of late but he’s the Falcons’ clear-cut top playmaker with WR Drake London (groin/out) sidelined this week. The Falcons are -3.5 favorites at home against a Vikings offense that won’t have Kirk Cousins or Justin Jefferson at their disposal. Robinson’s DFS salaries have fallen to a point where he becomes a very intriguing, low-owned RB play in a game where he should see a favorable game script.

Rhamondre Stevenson, NE | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6.2k | vs. WAS

If folks are targeting the Patriots' offense, it’s likely going to be QB Mac Jones and WR Demario Douglas. I’m not against either one of those plays, and both guys will earn a spotlight from me this week. However, some sizable leverage can be gained by pivoting to some Rhamondre Stevenson shares. Stevenson has not met the fantasy output expectations that many had for him entering the season, but he could be the focal point of the offense in a week when they’re down some key receiving weapons. The Pats have not played with many leads this season, so Stevenson (+18% more rush volume when favored) has not seen game scripts fall in his favor. That could change this week with New England being three-point home favorites. We can also expect some strong receiving volume out of Stevenson this week.

Devin Singletary, HOU | DK: $4.3k, FD: $5.3k | vs. TB

No Dameon Pierce (ankle/out) this week so Singletary will step into a starter’s workload and owns some bottom-of-the-barrel DFS prices. The Bucs have been solid against the run (13th in rush DVOA, holding RBs to 4.1 YPC) but RBs are averaging 6.3 receptions/gm against them in the last four games. The Texans are slight -2.5 home favorites and, should he handle 15-20 carries with a few receptions, Singletary could emerge as the best fantasy point-per-dollar RB on the slate.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

CeeDee Lamb, DAL | DK: $8.2k, FD: $8.8k | @ PHI

The Eagles’s defense is the epitome of a pass funnel. They’ve been extremely stingy on the ground (1st in rush DVOA) but very vulnerable versus the pass (23rd in pass DVOA). Philly did improve their secondary a bit at the trade deadline by adding 2x All-Pro safety Kevin Byard, but that’s not enough to view this pass defense as one to avoid. CeeDee Lamb exploded for a 14-12-158-2 receiving line in week eight versus the Rams. A similar performance would be a big ask, to say the least, but Lamb should be in line for strong target volume once again and he draws a stellar match-up against Eagles’ slot CB Sydney Brown. Lamb has run out of the slot 65% of the time this season and the Eagles allow the 3rd most FPPG to slot WRs. Lamb also leads all NFL WRs with an 82.1% catch% this season.

Adam Thielen, CAR | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.3k | vs. IND

It’s a little comical seeing these sorts of DFS salaries attached to Adam Thielen’s name, but here we are. Thielen is the WR8 on the season in per-game PPR scoring and, since week two, his 30.9% target% ranks 6th in the NFL. The Panthers and rookie QB Bryce Young got a confidence-boosting win on the board last week and this will be one of the easier match-ups that the Panthers passing offense has seen this season (Colts: 21st in pass DVOA).

Amari Cooper, CLE | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.8k | vs. ARI

The Browns project as one of the highest-scoring offenses on the slate (24.3 implied points, ranks 4th) and Cooper receives a notable QB upgrade with Deshaun Watson back at the helm. As mentioned with the Deshaun Watson spotlight, this Cardinals defense is not stopping much of anything and they’re highly exploitable through the air, ranking 29th in pass DVOA and surrendering the 2nd most FPPG to WRs over their last four games. It’s a great spot for a potential ceiling game from the reasonably-priced Cooper.

Demario Douglas, NE | DK: $4k, FD: $5.4k | vs. WAS

Douglas sets up as one of the chalkiest plays of the week now that he is the Pats’ de facto WR1 as a result of injuries to Kendrick Bourne and DeVante Parker. He’s a fine play for the price, especially in this particular match-up with a porous Washington secondary. As mentioned in his write-up, Mac Jones tends to play better at home which should trickle down to being a positive for Douglas as well. Douglas could be a smart fade in GPPs, but if you need a cheap WR for cash games, he’s one of the more favorable options on the board.

Jameson Crowder, WAS | DK: $3.4k, FD: $5.3k | @ NE

The Patriots have a knack for taking away a team’s top wide receiver, ranking 1st in WR1 DVOA. Of course, the Commanders’ WR1 is Terry McLaurin, so he should be viewed as a match-up downgrade this week. WR Curtis Samuel (toe) has been ruled out for Sunday’s tilt with the Pats, which means Jameson Crowder should take over primary slot duties in his place. Despite playing just 23 snaps (32% snap%) last week, Crowder was targeted seven times -- he caught all seven targets for 95 yards and a touchdown. Crowder should see a significantly higher snap rate this week and he’s an interesting pivot away from the chalky Demario Douglas in this same game. Jahan Dotson (DK: $5k, FD: $5.9k) is another Commanders’ WR that could be worth some GPP shares.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Taysom Hill, NO | DK: $4.7k, FD: $6.5k | vs. CHI

Hill will be one of the more notable risk vs. reward plays this week. He was seeing more usage as a tight end while Juwan Johnson was sidelined for three games. Johnson returned to action last week, and played 61% of snaps, but was barely utilized (two targets, once catch for five yards). Then again, Hill’s gadget role in the Saints offense isn’t necessarily attached to Juwan Johnson’s status. Hill was only targeted once last week but he tacked on nine carries for 63 yards and two touchdowns. Without any touchdowns, I have a hard time seeing Hill coming close to being an optimal play… though, the same can be said about most players. Nonetheless, if you’re feeling dangerous, Hill certainly seems to have plenty of touchdown equity at the moment and he can contribute in multiple ways.

Kyle Pitts, ATL | DK: $4.1k, FD: $5.2k | vs. MIN

The Falcons refuse to tap into the massive potential that Kyle Pitts has to offer. But with a temporary QB change (Taylor Heinicke starting this week, Ridder serving as the top backup) and top Falcons receiver Drake London (groin/out) sidelined, perhaps that is a recipe that leads to some Kyle Pitts success. In theory, Pitts has some incredible upside at these DFS price tags.

Hunter Henry, NE | DK: $3.6k, FD: $5.1k | vs. WAS

Henry has been mostly a non-factor going back to week three, but with a depleted wide receiver room, he may see some added targets head in his direction out of necessity. Washington has been an incredibly friendly match-up for TEs lately. Over the last four games, TEs are averaging 6.8 receptions/gm, 68.5 YPG, and 1.0 TDs/gm along with the most FPPG against the Commanders. We should also view Mike Gesicki (DK: $2.6k, FD: $4.7k) as an intriguing punt play as he should benefit from the depleted WR room as well and could end up seeing the most targets among Pats TEs this week.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: Cleveland Browns | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4.7k | vs. ARI

DraftKings Value D/ST: New York Giants | DK: $2.3k, FD: $4k | @ LV

Contrarian D/ST: Houston Texans | DK: $3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. TB

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, CeeDee Lamb

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Bryce Young, Adam Thielen, Jonathan Taylor

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Sam Howell, Jahan Dotson, Jameson Crowder

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Deshaun Watson, Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

Saquon Barkley + Giants D/ST

Full Team Stack - QB/TE/RB

Derek Carr, Taysom Hill, Alvin Kamara

Value Team Stack - QB/WR/RB

Mac Jones, Demario Douglas, Rhamondre Stevenson

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + TE + Opp WR

Taylor Heinicke, Kyle Pitts, Jordan Addison

Touchdown Call 🏈

Jonathan Taylor, IND | DK: $6.4k, FD: $8k | @ CAR

PrizePicks Sunday NFL Power Play ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

Amari Cooper MORE than 56.5 Receiving Yards

Saquon Barkley MORE than 77.5 Rush Yards

🆕 Props AI 🆕

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!