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Main Slate Rundown 📝

With only two teams on bye (PIT & SF), we’ll have another loaded Sunday main slate ahead with 12 games on DraftKings and 13 games on FanDuel, with the inclusion of the SNF match-up (IND @ MIN). There is no shortage of interesting spots to go to this week -- some obvious, some not so obvious. Let’s see if we can dig into our bag of leftover tricks from Halloween and put together a winning approach! Best of luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied point totals and spreads:

Weather Report

As a reminder, weather plays less of a factor in football than it does in other sports but it is still worth making note of any games that could experience wet conditions, high winds, and/or frigid, snowy conditions.

• LV @ CIN (1:00 ET, 45.5 O/U): Low-end chance for some rain.

• NE @ TEN (1:00 ET, 37.5 O/U): 10-15 mph winds.

• LAC @ CLE (1:00 ET, 42.5 O/U): Another spot where a bit of rain is possible.

• LAR @ SEA (4:25 ET, 48.5 O/U): Can never rule out some light rain as a possibility in Seattle.

• DET @ GB (4:25 ET, 47.5 O/U): Moderate but consistent rain is expected for most/all of this game. 15+ mph winds as well. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the O/U drop a couple of points before kickoff.

Quarterbacks to Consider

Potential quarterback targets at high/mid/low price points.

Jalen Hurts, PHI | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.3k | vs. JAX

This may seem like we’re chasing the big week eight game as Hurts punched in his third, fourth, and fifth rushing TDs in the last two weeks, but it’s much more about the possibility of back-to-back ceiling games. Jacksonville is, by far, the most fantasy-friendly defense to opposing QBs. They’re dead last in adjusted FPPG allowed to QBs by a wide margin and they’ve been even worse on the road where they’re allowing an average of 27.1 FPPG to QBs. Hurts rushing TDs are tough to count on but the Eagles should move the ball with ease in this match-up and Hurts should have a highly efficient day passing the ball with multiple big plays in the mix.

Bo Nix, DEN | DK: $5.9k, FD: $7.2k | @ BAL

My buddy Hunter joined my long-time fantasy league this season and shocked us all at the draft party by taking Bo Nix in the second round. Predictably, the rest of the league has given him grief all season. But maybe Hunter was on to something. Over the last four weeks, Nix is the QB3 in fantasy and, in that span, he has completed 67% of his passes for 870 yards and a 7:1 TD:INT ratio to go alongside 149 rush yards and two TDs on the ground. The Broncos’ offense has operated at one of the fastest paces in the NFL during that stretch as well. Nix’s big week eight performance against the pitiful Panthers perhaps wasn’t a huge surprise but he’s facing down another enticing match-up this week. The Ravens have been one of the most glaring examples of a pass funnel defense this season, ranking out very well against the run (5th in rush DVOA) but awful versus the pass (25th in pass DVOA). Over their L4Games, Baltimore is allowing over 340 pass YPG and 3.3 pass TDs/gm on 40.0 attempts/gm. The rub here is that the Ravens have been much better at home where they’re allowing only 14.4 FPPG to QBs and Nix has struggled on the road, averaging 13.3 FPPG in his four road starts. Regardless, if you’re willing to buy into the rookie’s dynamic skillset, he could rip off another big score on Sunday.

Gardner Minshew II, LV | DK: $4.5k, FD: $6.6k | at CIN

A lot of lineup possibilities open up by going this low on a QB so Minshew is at least worthy of some GPP shares this Sunday. Aidan O’Connell (thumb) is out of the equation after being placed on the IR, so Minshew’s only competition at QB now is backup Desmond Ridder. Minshew played well enough to keep the Raiders in the game versus the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs last week before ultimately losing by a touchdown. The match-up is much better for Minshew this week as the Bengals are 22nd in pass DVOA and have allowed 26.2 FPPG to QBs in their last four games. And if we’re stacking with Minshew, there are a couple of clear-cut options to choose from in WR Jakobi Meyers and star rookie TE Brock Bowers.

Running Backs to Consider

Potential running back targets at high/mid/low price points.

Kyren Williams, LAR | DK: $8k, FD: $8.9k | at SEA

No other RB in the NFL has played as many snaps as Kyren Williams and, even with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the lineup, the volume remained at an elite level last week as he saw 30 total opportunities (23 carries/7 targets). Williams also extended his TD streak to seven games -- and it’s up to 10 games if we’re only counting regular season games. Williams draws an attractive match-up versus a Seahawks run defense that is 25th in adjusted FPPG allowed to RBs and has allowed 194.1 total YPG to the position in their last four games.

De’Von Achane, MIA | DK: $6.7k, FD: $7.8k | at BUF

In the three games with Tua Tagovailoa starting at QB, Achane has popped off for an average of 26.4 DKFP/gm while ranking no lower than RB7 in any of those individual weeks. He has also seen an average of 7.3 targets/gm in those three weeks -- good for an 18.4% Target%, which is an elite mark for a running back. His DFS prices have since been bumped up compared to last week, but they’re still below where they should be with a healthy Tua leading the offense. It’s a tough match-up on the ground for Achane (BUF: 3rd in rush DVOA) but no other defense in the NFL has allowed more RB targets per game (8.25) or RB receptions per game (6.38) than the Bills. We’re almost viewing Achane as a strong WR play on this slate with rushing upside.

D’Andre Swift, CHI | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.2k | at ARI

It was a slow start to the season for Swift but he has turned it on over his last four contests, scoring a TD in every game and compiling 133.3 total YPG on 21.3 touches/gm in that span. So, even without the TDs factored in, he would have still come away with a quality fantasy score in each of those games. Swift will land in another promising match-up versus the Cardinals, who are allowing 27.2 FPPG to RBs this season and +39% more FPPG to RBs when playing at home.

Tyrone Tracy Jr., NYG | DK: $5.5k, FD: $6.2k | vs. WAS

Tracy had a concussion scare on Monday Night Football but he has been able to quickly clear the concussion protocol and heads into this Sunday without an injury designation. He has clearly usurped Devin Singletary as the lead Giants RB. Though playing on the Giants' offense comes with its downsides, Tracy has proven to be a versatile and efficient weapon. His 3.4 yards before contact per attempt rank fourth among all NFL RBs, behind only Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry. That is some elite company and if Tracy was able to break off a big game against the Steelers (7th in rush DVOA) then he should have no major problems against the Commanders (24th in rush DVOA).

Julius Chestnut, TEN | DK: $4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. NE

I’d be here for a value play if Tony Pollard (foot/questionable) were to be ruled out. With Tyjae Spears (hamstring/out) set to miss his third game in a row, Chestnut would be the clear-cut RB1 as no other RB on the Titans’ roster, outside of Pollard, Spears, and Chestnut, has logged an offensive snap this season. Pollard has not practiced all week and the Titans’ coaching staff has hinted at lightening his workload in the second half of the season because, let’s face it, this 1-6 Tennessee team is not sniffing the playoffs. RBs have found plenty of success against a Patriots defense that ranks 29th in rush DVOA and has allowed the 3rd most FPPG to RBs this season. Even if Pollard is active, Chestnut may be worth a GPP dart throw in hopes of the workload falling to more of a 50/50 split.

Wide Receivers to Consider

Potential wide receiver targets at high/mid/low price points.

AJ Brown, PHI | DK: $8.1k, FD: $9k | vs. JAX

I’m fairly certain this is the third or fourth week in a row that AJ Brown has been given a spotlight in this newsletter but, for the most part, it has worked out well. While he did have to miss three games due to a hamstring injury, Brown has been the WR2 in terms of FPPG. The same logic mentioned in the Jalen Hurts’ spotlight above will directly apply to Brown as well. The Jags' defense is just atrocious and as long as most of the TDs aren’t scored by Hurts on the ground this week, then Brown could easily go off for 120+ yards and a TD or two. It will help his case if the Jags (+7) manage to keep this a close game for all four quarters.

Terry McLaurin, WAS | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.4k | at NYG

The first time these teams met back in week two, McLaurin caught 6-of-8 targets… for a meager 22 yards. Afterward, the Jayden Daniels to Scary Terry connection really took off and McLauring has ranked as the WR9 in FPPG from week three onward. Considering McLauring is #1 in the NFL in total air yards, he realistically could be considerably higher in the WR rankings. Three of his four highest yardage total games did not include a touchdown so once the yardage volume aligns with the TD luck, he may very well hit “slate breaker” territory. The Giants are 29th in WR1 DVOA this season so, at the very least, look for McLaurin to provide a strong floor with a decent chance at a ceiling game.

Chris Olave, NO | DK: $6.1k, FD: $7.1k | at CAR

The Saints are set to get their starting QB back after Derek Carr missed the last three contests with an oblique injury. With Rasheed Shahid on season-ending IR and Bub Means (ankle/out) sidelined, Chris Olave’s main competition for targets at WR includes the likes of Cedric Wilson Jr. (hip/questionable), Mason Tipton, and the recently acquired Marquez Valdes-Scantling. Olave saw a combined 14 targets in week eight from QBs Spencer Rattler and Jake Haener, and that was with Olave needing to check out of the game temporarily to check for concussion symptoms. The high target volume should be there once again as Olave and the Saints go up against a poor Panthers defense (31st in pass DVOA).

Courtland Sutton, DEN | DK: $5.4k, FD: $6k | at BAL

We’ve got Bo Nix on the DFS radar this week so, predictably, his top target should command some attention as well. The floor can be low for Sutton, as it would be for any WR playing with a rookie QB, but we have to love the match-up against a Ravens defense that has surrendered THE most FPPG to perimeter WRs (Sutton: 86% PerimeterRoute%).

Cleveland Browns WRs

With Jameis Winston at the helm and Amari Cooper out of town, there has been a new hierarchy established in the Browns’ WR room. Jerry Jeudy (DK: $5.1k, FD: $6k), Cedric Tillman (DK: $4.3k, FD: $6.1k), and Elijah Moore (DK: $4.2k, FD: $5.5k) all have appeal as value WR options this week. The only other Browns’ WR to see action in week eight was Jaelon Darden, who played a grand total of four snaps. It’s not a great match-up but Winston may very well throw it another 40+ times this week and, outside of TE David Njoku, the vast majority of those targets will be spread across these three WRs. If I had to rank them in order of preference, it’d likely go Tillman, Moore, then Jeudy.

Tight Ends to Consider

Tight end targets at high/mid/low price points.

Trey McBride, ARI | DK: $5.8k, FD: $6.8k | vs. CHI

Surprisingly, no TDs on the season yet for McBride but when you’re seeing 8.0 Targets/gm, including a season-high 11 targets a week ago, then eventually the TD luck is going to come through. The fact that McBride can hit 3x value or better without scoring is pretty valuable. The match-up looks solid against a Bears defense that is middle of the pack (18th) in TE DVOA and has allowed +64% more FPPG to the position when playing on the road (last nine).

Sam LaPorta, DET | DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.3k | at GB

LaPorta’s season has been a major disappointment following a brilliant rookie season but there is reason for optimism following his 6-48-1 receiving line last week. Those six targets were a season-high and, in a game where Jared Godd attempted just 15 passes, that equated to a team-leading 33.3% Target%. In a potentially rainy, windy environment in Green Bay, that could lead to the Lions’ passing game script to heavily favor the TE (LaPorta) once again. It’s a nice spot against the Packers (26th in TE DVOA) who have allowed 7.0 receptions/gm and 75.5 YPG to TEs L4Games.

Taysom Hill, NO | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5.9k | at CAR

We know that Taysom Hill is a jack of all trades but he’s not necessarily ever guaranteed any significant volume. He has missed some time due to injuries this season, but this may be a prime “Taysom Hill week” spot. On top of the receiver shortages, the Saints will be down two of their backup RBs -- Kendre Miller (hamstring/out) and Jamal Williams (groin/doubtful). So Hill should serve as the primary RB2 behind Alvin Kamara while also mixing in some routes at TE, and he may potentially take over in a couple of packages near the goal line as a wildcat QB/RB. Hill won’t be highly-owned, but he could come away with a sneaky productive game on Sunday. He played just 40% of the snaps last week (missed the three games prior) but I’d look for that snap rate to rise significantly this Sunday after getting a full week of practice in.

Defenses to Consider

D/ST is a very volatile “position” and shouldn’t take up too much time in your DFS research. However, here are some D/STs I’m on board with this week.

Pay-Up D/ST: New Orleans Saints | DK: $3.8k, FD: $5k | at CAR

Mid-Range D/ST: Washington Commanders | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.9k | at NYG

Value D/ST: New York Giants | DK: $2.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. WAS

DraftKings Value D/ST: Chicago Bears | DK: $2.8k, FD: $4.4k | at ARI

Contrarian D/ST: Green Bay Packers | DK: $2.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. DET

Stacks & Bring Backs 🥞

Below are a few team/game stack ideas to consider for this slate. In some examples, I will include a “bring back” option which will feature a normal "QB + Receiver" stack along with a player from the opposing team in the same game that could also benefit should the primary "QB + Receiver" stack go off.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Running Back (Game Stack)

Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Tyrone Tracy Jr.

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (Game Stack)

Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Brock Bowers

QB + WR/TE + Opp Receiver (FanDuel Main Slate Only SNF Game Stack)

San Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Josh Downs

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith

QB + Two Pass Catchers (Double Stack)

Lamar Jackson, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews

RB + Team D/ST Correlation Stack

D’Andre Swift + Bears D/ST

Full Team Stack | QB + WR/TE + RB

Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Kyren Williams

Value Double Stack | Cheap QB + Two Pass Catchers

Jameis Winston, Cedric Tillman, Elijah Moore

“Ugly Duckling Game Stack” | QB + WR + Opp Receiver (From a low O/U game)

Justin Herbert, Ladd McConkey, David Njoku

Sunday Night Football Showdown Cheat Sheet

Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) | 47.0 O/U

Colts: 20.8 Implied Points | Vikings: 26.3 Implied Points

Notable DFS-Relevant Injuries: None

Score Prediction: Colts - 20, Vikings - 24

Showdown Roster Construction (in order of preference): 4-2 Vikings, 3-3 Balanced, 4-2 Colts, 5-1 Vikings

Sunday NFL Pick ‘Em ⚡

This is a two-pick NFL "Power Play" I have over on PrizePicks. Nothing is ever a guarantee to hit but these props did stand out so I'll be rolling it out with confidence! If it hits, it will return a 3x payout!

No picks from me this Sunday but, as usual, Tyler & Shannon have ya covered with some great recommendations in the props videos posted at the top of this newsletter!

🔥 Props AI 🔥

In LineStar’s ongoing mission to improve, innovate, and help you reel in some cash, we are introducing Props AI for NFL – available for LineStar Premium users! This tool can help you find value and mispriced odds on player props from sportsbooks and, more specifically, for PrizePicks and UnderDog Fantasy!

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Once again, if you have any questions DM me on Twitter or hit me up in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week!