By: Ryan Humphries

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Welcome to the first 2021 edition of the LineStar NFL Primetime Preview! Here we’ll be getting a look ahead at the week’s primetime games with a focus on the single game slates. On top of single game strategies and tips, you’ll find game previews and some less obvious players to consider for your lineups! This newsletter is meant to be GPP oriented, so you’ll rarely see any QBs, WR1s, or RB1s highlighted in-depth, as those guys are always the more straightforward players to roster.

On DraftKings, your “captain” selection is going to result in that player’s salary to multiply by a factor of 1.5x but they will also score 1.5x fantasy points. On FanDuel, there is no increased salary adjustment for the “MVP” roster position, however that player will still score 1.5x the fantasy points. Due to the differences in how DraftKings and FanDuel formats their single game NFL rules, this newsletter leans more towards a DraftKings focus but FanDuel players may still gain some helpful information from these Primetime Previews as well.

Many believe that in order to win an NFL showdown GPP you simply have to ‘luckbox’ your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate! Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport or slate format, you do need a bit of good fortune. But research and sharp game theory truly makes all the difference.

So, what are some strategies and determining factors that should affect your approach to NFL showdown lineup construction?

Single Game Showdown Tips & Strategy

1a) Choosing the Right Captain

This one is quite obvious, but it is the most important aspect of single game showdown lineup construction. The 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain roster spot is extremely crucial in any showdown contest, but especially in GPPs. In DraftKings showdowns, about two-thirds of the time, a wide receiver or running back ends up being the optimal captain play. Quarterbacks are often times the highest owned captain selections in actual contests but end up being the optimal play less than 20% of the time. However, QBs who add value with their rushing ability are more viable as captain selections over QBs who are prototypical pocket passers. Behind WRs, RBs, and QBs, in terms of the most common optimal captain selections, are tight ends, defenses, and (on very rare occasions) kickers – in that order.

1b) ‘Stacking’ Your Captain Selection Appropriately

This goes hand-in-hand with who you choose to roll with at captain. If you have a WR at captain, you almost always want to pair that player with his quarterback as one of your flex plays. If you’re choosing to roll with a QB at captain, you are sort of predicting that more than one of his receivers are going to have a productive day, and no single receiver will be outscoring him, so stack two or three of his pass catchers. Running backs often have a positive correlation with their team’s defense (likely having a lead and controlling the clock on the ground on offense = well-rested defense) so you could choose to take that route. RBs who are capable receivers see their fair share of targets are also stack-able with their QB as well.

2) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predicting game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat cheesy, but you really need to make your lineup tell a story. If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game which may be in catch-up mode. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type of low-scoring affair, then consider rostering one or both defenses (one perhaps in your captain slot) while trying to find the skill position players who happen to score the game’s one or two touchdowns.

If you believe one team, whether they’re the favorite or the underdog, has a chance to completely blow out the other, then consider building a 5-1 'smash' lineup – meaning, roster five players on the dominating team and one player on the other team that could still manage to have a decent box score. Most GPP-winning lineups will have either a 4-2 construction (four players on the winning team, two on the losing team) or a 3-3 construction (three players from both teams -- when a game stays fairly close and is usually won by about 10 points or less).

3) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, RB1s, and occasionally a TE if there is a premiere guy at the position available like Travis Kelce or Darren Waller. Think outside the box to find the guy whose snap counts have maybe been rising in recent weeks or perhaps somebody else that is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs. Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be either overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to exceed the field by rostering him in 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure). If your player exposure is even to the field, you’re limiting the potential upside and leverage within your lineups.

4) Leaving Some Salary on the Table

It’s very common for top prizes in showdown GPPs to be split among many different contestants. Sometimes it is just unavoidable if the optimal lineup ends up being a commonly duplicated entry. But one of the better ways to ensure you have a more unique lineup is to simply not force yourself into spending 98-100% of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more in some circumstances) on the table may not feel like a ‘comfortable’ thing to do, yet is often times the optimal route to take. A good way to sort of back test this is to go on LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out optimal lineups from previous showdown slates.

Now, with those single game showdown tips and strategies covered, let’s get a look ahead at the week one primetime games!

Week 1 Primetime Preview

I believe the week one NFL primetime match-ups leave a little to be desired from an entertainment perspective, but there are still plenty of storylines and intrigue across the board within these three games. Plus, who am I kidding, it’s week one of the NFL season! If you’re far too obsessed with football like I am, we’d be foaming at the mouth to watch any NFL game even if it was between the Lions and the Jets! Though, watching that game would maybe require the consumption of a few extra beers. So, let’s cut right to the chase and get a look ahead at these three match-ups and how we can attack them from a single game DFS perspective!

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

Thursday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) | 52 O/U

Implied Points | DAL: 22, TB: 30

Notable Offensive Skill Position Injuries: None

The 2021 NFL season kicks off with the Dallas Cowboys traveling to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams enter into the new season in pretty good health, with one of the most notable player injuries from the 2020 season, Dak Prescott (ankle + a minor offseason shoulder issue), coming into Thursday's game “100% healthy.” The Bucs return all 22 Super Bowl LV starters to the team in 2021, which has never happened before in the NFL’s salary cap era. It’s clear who should have the team chemistry advantage in this game after Dak Prescott went down last season in week five with that compound right ankle fracture and dislocation -- though he was leading the NFL in passing at the time that injury occurred. The spread for this game opened with the Bucs being -6.5 favorites but the public smashed that number and has forced it all the way to TB -8.5 on some books. Even at TB -8, that is still the largest spread of any NFL game in week one. I believe the Cowboys have enough firepower on offense to cover that spread, though I don’t see them coming away victorious. Given Dallas’ unproven secondary, which was among the league’s worst in 2020, I expect them to surrender 30+ points to Tampa Bay, but they'll put some points up of their own.

Score Prediction: DAL - 24, TB - 31

Lineup Construction: There is no shortage of viable weapons on both offenses in this game, so balanced 3-3 builds should be very viable. Even if Tampa Bay doesn’t run away with this game on the scoreboard, 4-2 (TB - DAL) builds could easily end up being the optimal route to take as well. 4-2 (DAL - TB) builds could be considered the preferred contrarian approach. Meanwhile, I likely won’t have any 5-1 “smash” builds constructed in either team’s direction.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets (Core Players): QB Tom Brady*, QB Dak Prescott*, RB Zeke Elliot*, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin*, WR Antonio Brown, WR CeeDee Lamb, WR Amari Cooper*

*Preferred captain plays

WR Michael Gallup | Captain Rating (GPPs): ★★★★☆

Gallup is the cheapest of the “big three” Cowboys WRs by a decent margin, but will likely check in with the lowest ownership so… boom, there’s instant leverage to be had here. Gallup may have been the least fantasy-relevant receiver behind Lamb and Cooper last season, but he led the Cowboy’s WRs with an 87.6% snap rate in 2020 along with a team-high 14.3 yds/rec. The Bucs also allowed the 2nd most fantasy points per game to perimeter receivers over the final eight games of the 2020 season. Gallup lined up on the perimeter on 93% of his snaps in 2020 and should be expected to be utilized as the “big play” downfield threat once again. He has some boom or bust qualities, but if you’re looking to go somewhat against the grain (Gallup will still be fairly popular, don’t get me wrong), he’s not a bad option to consider.

TE Blake Jarwin | Captain Rating (GPPs): ★★☆☆☆

Jarwin would have to have a monster game to come away as the optimal captain play as he is fighting Cooper, Lamb, Gallup, and even Zeke for targets from Dak Prescott. But after tearing his ACL in week one of the 2020 season, he returns fully healthy and is set to step back in as the primary pass-catching Cowboys tight end. Covering the tight end was a point of weakness for the Bucs defense a season ago as they allowed the 10th most FPPG to the position, including 16.5 DKFPPG over their final four games. Cowboys TE Dalton Schultz may also see some decent snaps and run a few routes, but Jarwin is fully expected to be the go-to pass-catcher at the position. If Dallas gets down early, they could feasibly end up throwing it 40-50 times. If Jarwin is on the receiving end of even just 5-7 of those targets, particularly looks that around the redzone, he would make for a quality flex option.

TE Rob Gronkowski | Captain Rating (GPPs): ★★★☆☆

Let’s highlight another TE with the future HoF’er Rob Gronkowski. News out of training camp suggests that Gronk looks considerably better than he did a year ago when he was shaking off one year in retirement’s worth of rust. And Tom Brady will surely take notice of that during games. Anyone who has paid attention to the NFL in the last decade is aware of the connection these guys share and he was, of course, the recipient of a pair of touchdowns in Super Bowl LV. In 2020, Gronk also led all tight ends with 17 deep targets (passes that travel 20+ yards in the air) and tied WR Mike Evans with a team-leading 21 redzone targets. The Cowboys weren’t particularly bad at preventing tight end production in 2020 (mostly because everyone could just attack their weak secondary at will) but Gronk may still be the best bet in this game to snag multiple receiving touchdowns.

Sunday Night Football

Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) | 46 O/U

Implied Points | CHI: 19.3, LAR: 26.8

Notable Offensive Skill Position Injuries: RB Darrell Henderson Jr. (thumb) - Questionable, RB Tarik Cohen (knee) - Out/PUP, RB Cam Akers (Achilles) - Out/IR, WR Darnell Mooney (back) - Questionable, WR Van Jefferson (arm) - Questionable

Chicago fans everywhere, and DFS/fantasy football fans in general, may all be clamoring for rookie QB Justin Fields to get his shot immediately out of the gates as the Bears QB… but that hope is dashed, at least for week one (barring unforeseen circumstances). Instead, journeyman QB Andy Dalton will look to be as “serviceable” as possible. I’m not sure this game is going to go well for him. The Rams boast one of the most dangerous defensive fronts in the league and will be attacking a Bears O-Line which ranks potentially among the bottom five offensive fronts in the NFL. On the Rams offensive side of the ball, they obviously made a notable upgrade at the QB position this offseason when they acquired Matthew Stafford from the Lions and traded off the erratic and much-maligned Jared Goff. Now, it isn’t as if the Bears are unfamiliar with Matthew Stafford, considering they faced him at least twice a season in the NFC North for many years. But Stafford receives a significant upgrade with the weapons around him compared to what he had to work with in Detroit in recent years while also playing in a much more progressive Sean McVay offense. The Bears will be able to move the ball a bit, but I still see the Rams winning this one by double digits.

Score Prediction: CHI - 17, LAR - 30

Lineup Construction: 4-2 (LAR - CHI) builds would be my preferred approach but it might not be a bad idea to roll out some 5-1 Rams ‘smash' builds as well in case they completely dominate this game.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets (Core Players): QB Matthew Stafford*, QB Andy Dalton, RB David Montgomery, RB Darrell Henderson Jr.*, WR Robert Woods*, WR Cooper Kupp*, WR Allen Robinson II

*Preferred captain plays

WR Darnell Mooney | Captain Rating (GPPs): ★★★☆☆

Assuming Mooney’s back issue isn’t anything significant (doesn’t seem to be since he has been able to practice on a limited basis), he will be expected to operate as the Bear’s No. 2 receiver behind ARob. The expectation for their match-up this week is that Robinson will be shadowed on many (or all) of his routes by cornerback Jalen Ramsey, who many would argue is the best CB in the NFL. It stands to reason that this would force more targets towards Mooney who is entering his second NFL season, which is often where many WRs take on a noticeable leap in production after getting more acclimated to the game at the professional level. If the Bears do indeed end up playing from behind in much of this game, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Mooney push for 10+ targets.

WR DeSean Jackson | Captain Rating (GPPs): ★★☆☆☆

Here’s your chance to get some DJax exposure before he almost inevitably sustains some sort of injury. Jackson has played in only eight games over the last two seasons so long term health is obviously a concern. But that’s the lovely thing about *Daily* Fantasy Sports… we need him to just stay healthy for one day/one game this week. He’s competing with second-year WR Van Jefferson for the Rams No. 3 wide receiver role behind Woods and Kupp. Local beat writers suggest that Jackson has still been capable of showing off his trademark burning speed in training camp. Matthew Stafford has historically been one of the best (and most aggressive) deep ball passers in the NFL. Jackson and Jefferson are likely to split snaps but the Rams did run 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR) on 65% of offensive plays last year (and passed on 67% of those plays) and Jackson is, of course, the kind of deep threat big play receiver who needs only a couple catches to return value.

D/ST Los Angeles Rams | Captain Rating (GPPs): ★☆☆☆☆

D/STs should only be utilized in the captain slot in the most contrarian of builds, but the Rams defense has a strong case for being considered as a routine flex play target in this game. Aaron Donald & company should be expected to cause a number of issues for this Chicago offense which could lead to a number of sacks/fumbles and some ill-advised throws/interceptions. It could also be a long day for the Bears passing attack if Jalen Ramsey is able to lock up Allen Robinson II throughout all four quarters and limit his effectiveness. Under the right circumstances, I could see the Rams D/ST scoring 15-20 fantasy points in this game.

Monday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders | 51 O/U

Implied Points | BAL: 27.8, LV: 23.3

Notable Offensive Skill Position Injuries: RB Josh Jacobs (unspecified) - Questionable, RB JK Dobbins (ACL) - Out/IR, RB Justice Hill (Achilles) - Out/IR, WR Rashod Bateman (groin) - Out/IR, WR Miles Boykin (hamstring) - Out/IR, **RB Gus Edwards (knee)** - Out/IR

**UPDATE:** This was written prior to the Gus Edwards season-ending injury.

Monday Night Football will feature the closest spread among week one’s primetime games with the Ravens entering as 4.5 point road favorites. Despite losing JK Dobbins for the year in the preseason, the Ravens are still a pretty safe bet to finish among the top three in the NFL in rushing -- or outright lead the league as they have done in each of the last two seasons (and finished 2nd in 2018). Baltimore also possesses a top tier defense which finds more success through its scheme rather than individual athletes. However, the Raiders are a team I’m expecting to take a step forward this season. They still have plenty of question marks on both sides of the ball, but they will be competitive in more games than some expect following a middling 2020 season where they ended with an 8-8 record. Given the Ravens penchant for eating up so much clock with their ground game, I’m more confident in the under hitting in this game rather than predicting who wins or covers… but I’ll give it a shot anyhow…

Score Prediction: BAL - 26, LV - 20

Lineup Construction: I don’t see either team running away with this game so 5-1 builds are off the table for me personally. I’ll mostly target balanced 3-3 builds and 4-2 (both BAL - LV & LV - BAL) builds.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets (Core Players): QB Lamar Jackson*, QB Derek Carr, RB Josh Jacobs, WR Marquie Brown*, TE Mark Andrews*, TE Darren Waller*

*Preferred captain plays

RB Kenyan Drake | Captain Rating (GPPs): ★★★☆☆

Drake is the likely candidate to be on the field on passing downs and operate as more of a change of pace back behind Josh Jacobs, who should see much of his work on early downs and around the goal line while running between the tackles. No one will mistake Drake for Alvin Kamara or Christian McCaffrey when it comes to his receiving skillset, but he’s certainly capable of doing damage as a pass catcher. In 2020, Baltimore’s defense allowed 81 receptions and 610 receiving yards to running backs, which ranked as the 13th most in the NFL in both categories. With the other Raiders pass-catching RB specialist Jalen Richard on the IR with a leg injury, it’s very possible that Drake could account for all receptions made by Raiders running backs and could add a 5-10 carries into the mix as well. That would make him an appealing option in PPR formats like DraftKings.

RB Ty’Son Williams | Captain Rating (GPPs): ★★★★☆

**UPDATE:** Williams clearly becomes much more of a "core play" now that he should get the first crack at lead RB duties for the Ravens.

The Ravens are going to run, and run a lot. Gus Edwards is the lead RB on this team, but Williams should carve out a meaningful role himself. In 2020, JK Dobbins led Ravens RBs with a 44.4% snap rate while Edwards accounted for a 33.8% snap rate. With Dobbins out for the year, it’s reasonable to expect a similar split between Edwards and Williams. That also isn’t taking into account Mark Ingram’s (now with the Texans) 15.6% snap rate and Justice Hill’s (out for the season) 7.1% snap rate. Baltimore did bring in and sign Le’Veon Bell for depth purposes, but Williams should operate well ahead of him after impressing in the preseason and already being familiar with the playbook. Williams is a capable pass catcher as well and will face a Raiders defense that allowed the 11th most receptions to RBs (88) in 2020 and the 7th most receiving yards (677).

WR Bryan Edwards | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

There is no doubt that TE Darren Waller is “the guy” in this Raiders passing offense but Edwards is expected to take on an expanded role as he enters his second year in the league. The release of journeyman WR John Brown on Aug. 31st further indicated that the Raiders are comfortable with Edwards being a primary receiver alongside Henry Ruggs III and slot WR Hunter Renfrow. Baltimore’s defense should be committed to slowing down Darren Waller. Meanwhile, Henry Ruggs’ skillset is more in line with that of a deep/down the field threat -- so Edwards may be utilized as an intermediate target who helps move the chains and he should also maintain a notable role in the redzone as well. Over the last eight weeks of the 2020 season, the Ravens did allow the 12th most fantasy points per game to perimeter WRs, which is where Edwards ran 80% of his routes.

That will wrap us up for the Week 1 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate break down linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter or in LineStar chat @Ryan_Humphries. Good luck this week! Be on the lookout for the newsletter covering the main slate tomorrow!

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