Week 10 NFL Primetime Preview | Tuning in to Some Big Divisional Showdowns

November 06, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

Welcome to the Week 10 LineStar Primetime Preview! Here we'll be getting a look ahead at the week's primetime games with a focus on the single game slates on DraftKings and FanDuel. On top of single game strategies and tips, you'll find game previews and some less obvious players to consider for your lineups! This newsletter is meant to be GPP oriented, so you'll rarely see any QBs, WR1s, or RB1s mentioned as those are more obvious players to roster.

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Single game “showdown” NFL slates are becoming more and more popular. As such, sites like DraftKings and FanDuel have been rolling out a wider array of contests with larger prize pools. Many may think that in order to win an NFL showdown GPP you simply have to ‘luckbox’ your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate. Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport, you do need a bit of good fortune. But research and intelligent game theory truly makes all the difference.

So, what are some determining factors that should affect your NFL showdown lineup construction?

1) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predictive game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat cheesy, but you really need to make your lineup tell a story. If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game which will be in catch-up mode. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type low-scoring affair, then consider rostering both defenses (one perhaps in your captain/MVP slot) with a kicker while trying to find the skill position player(s) who happen to score the game’s one or two touchdowns. There are plenty of other ways that NFL games ultimately play out, but those are just a couple of basic examples.

2) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, and RB1s. Think outside the box to find the guy whose snap counts have been rising or somebody else that is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs. Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be either overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to exceed the field by rostering him in 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure). If your player exposure is even to the field, you’re limiting the potential upside of your lineups.

3) Choosing the Right Captain/MVP

This one is quite obvious, but the 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain roster spot is extremely crucial in any showdown contest, but especially GPPs. Combine the aforementioned strategies with your own thoughts and predictions to determine what approach you’re going to take with the ever valuable captain position.

4) Leaving Some Salary on the Table

One of the better ways to ensure you have a more unique lineup is to simply not force yourself into spending 98-100% of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more) on the table may not feel like a ‘comfortable’ thing to do, yet is often times the optimal route to take. A good way to sort of back test this is to go on LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out optimal lineups from previous showdown slates.

Example: For week nine's SNF match-up between the Ravens and Patriots, the most optimal lineup you could create on DraftKings only used $47,800 of the available $50,000 budget. Many of these single game slates have had perfect lineups with $3k+ left on the table so that game wasn't too far off.

Now that we’ve covered some strategic angles, let’s get into these games!

Thursday Night Football

Los Angeles Chargers (-1) @ Oakland Raiders | 49 O/U

LAC: 25.0 implied points | OAK: 24.0 implied points

LAC Off. Pace Rank: 24th | OAK Off. Pace Rank: 27th

LAC PPG For/Against: 20.3/18.7 | OAK PPG For/Against: 22.8/27.0

Thursday Night Football will actually bring us an appealing AFC West match-up between the Raiders (4-4) and Chargers (4-5). The total resting just under 50 points does surprise me a bit. Both of these teams rank inside the bottom ten in offensive tempo and while the Raiders have been finding themselves playing in some back-and-forth shootouts lately, the Chargers haven’t been involved in a game that has topped over 43 points in the last six weeks. Combined with the fact that TNF games tend to be lower scoring as guys are playing on a short week, the under here is looking mighty tempting. But, with that said, both of these teams are heading into week 10 essentially at full health on offense while coming off of huge wins in week 9, keeping both teams’ playoff aspirations alive. I really can’t say just who has the edge here and I believe Vegas has this one pegged pretty accurately as a near “pick ‘em” sort of game.

Players to Consider:

Mike Williams | DK: $7.4k, FD: $10.5k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Mike Williams has been far from consistent but he is one of those players that doesn’t necessarily need a ton of volume to produce a big stat line. Per NFL NextGen Stats, Mike Williams’ average targeted air yards of 15.2 is the 8th highest mark in the league and his 18.3 YPC ranks 7th. Williams lines up on the perimeter for 58% of his routes. The Raiders have given up the 3rd most FPPG to perimeter receivers this season and THE most in the last four weeks. His 18.2% target share is a good ways off of Keenan Allen’s 26%. But Williams, with his great ability to break big gains, has been the one outproducing Allen in recent weeks. He has yet to find the endzone this season but he’s simply too much of a factor in this offense for that to be the case for long. He has a team-leading 11 redzone targets this season but has only converted two of those into catches.

Hunter Renfrow | DK: $5k, FD: $9.5k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Despite playing on just 64% and 54% of offensive snaps in the last two weeks, Renfrow has made the most of his somewhat limited opportunity by catching 10-of-11 targets for 142 yards and two scores. Those 11 targets also represent a team-leading 18% target share in that span. While Carr could immediately go back to honing in on pretty much only Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams, for the time being, he seems to have found a new safety net in Renfrow. The Chargers secondary is a tough one, and they allow the 8th fewest FPPG to WRs. However, if there is perhaps a soft spot, it may be out of the slot where Renfrow runs 81% of his routes. The Chargers have allowed the 18th most FPPG to slot WRs in the last four weeks -- which is still pretty solid from a defensive standpoint, but I’d look for the Carr (71.2% completion rate) to Renfrow connection to continue into week 10.

Foster Moreau | DK: $2.2k, FD: $6k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

 You know that feeling you get when you’re playing some showdown NFL DFS contests and you’re watching the game when some random no-name scores? It happens all the time and you’re left thinking “who in their right mind would have rostered that guy?” Well, maybe “that guy” could be Foster Moreau this Thursday. Moreau has three touchdowns across the Raiders’ last five games and has caught all five of his redzone targets this season. Catching 100% of your redzone targets is the sort of thing that coaches notice. There is no question that Darren Waller is “the guy” at the tight end position for this team but it seems like Moreau is set to continue to get some opportunities. He has played on 46% of snaps this season and could very easily sneak his way into the endzone once again, and the ownership likely won’t be too high on him. It’s risky, but he’s worth a look if you’re in need of a bit of an off the wall punt play!

Sunday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys (-3) | 47.5 O/U

MIN: 22.3 implied point | DAL: 25.3 implied points

MIN Off. Pace Rank: 22nd | DAL Off. Pace Rank: 5th

MIN PPG For/Against: 26.0/17.6 | DAL PPG For/Against: 28.4/17.8

 Hey look, the Cowboys are on primetime again! How unusual. You may detect some sarcasm there but in reality, I do think this could be a really solid football game to watch between two NFC teams looking to establish themselves as the class of their respective divisions. Two of the best running backs in football will be on full display here as Dalvin Cook and Ezekiel Elliot will look to carry the load for their offenses. The QB match-up is a sneaky good one as well. Kirk Cousins has shaken some early season disappointment and enters the week behind only Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes with a 112.0 QB Rating. Dak Prescott has shown his skills plenty this season and ranks 3rd in the league, averaging 8.7 YPA, while completing 69.6% of his passes. There are a couple of key injuries to keep track of here with an elite receiver on each team. Adam Thielen re-aggravated a hamstring injury in week nine and is questionable (possibly more doubtful) to suit up Sunday night. Meanwhile, Amari Cooper was forced out of Monday night’s game with a left knee injury. He returned to the game and, though he may not be practicing as of Wednesday, he seems a bit more likely to play on Sunday night.

Players to Consider:

Note: Single game salaries for the SNF and MNF contests are currently unavailable at the time of this writing.

Olabisi Johnson

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

If Adam Thielen plays, you can pretty much scratch this recommendation, but by all means Johnson should be considered the No. 2 WR if Thielen sits. For whatever reason, Laquon Treadwell saw more targets (5) than Johnson last week, despite playing on just 28% of snaps after Thielen’s exit. Johnson played on 83% of snaps and saw only two targets, but fortunately he caught one of those for a four yard touchdown. Johnson would likely align in the slot for many of his routes, which is where Dallas has allowed the 3rd most FPPG over the last four weeks. This isn’t a slam dunk play but, for a contrarian approach, Johnson makes sense.

Irv Smith Jr.

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Kyle Rudolph is rarely going to leave the field (87.7% snap rate) but Irv Smith is slowly but surely gaining more and more opportunities in this offense. Smith’s 61% and 64% snap rate in the last two weeks are his two highest marks of the season. His 15 targets in the last three weeks is one better than Rudolph’s and represents a 15% target share in this offense during that stretch, which is tied for 2nd highest on the team as well. Dallas allows the 5th most FPPG to opposing TEs and with Smith steadily gaining more of Kirk Cousin’s trust, he could bust open for a big game any week now as he searches for his first career touchdown.

Brett Maher

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Suggesting a kicker for single game slates never feels “cool” but Maher landed in the optimal lineup on MNF on both DraftKings and FanDuel this week. Dallas also ranks 2nd in the NFL, scoring 31.8 PPG at home. With Minnesota’s relatively stout defense, I could imagine a scenario where the Cowboys move the ball pretty effectively between the 20s, but stall on several drives in Vikings territory. Potential for four of five Maher field goals would have to enter the picture. He's also got a fairly big leg and is 4-of-7 of 50+ yard field goals this season.

Monday Night Football

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers (-6) | 46.5 O/U

SEA: 20.3 implied points | SF: 26.3 implied points

SEA Off. Pace Rank: 16th | SF Off. Pace Rank: 28th

SEA PPG For/Against: 27.6/25.6 | SF PPG For/Against: 29.4/12.8

 Monday Night Football will wrap up a highly appealing set of three week 10 primetime games and wrap things up with another divisional clash in the NFC West. The Cardinals were able to put some potential chinks in the 49er defensive armor in last week’s TNF game, but in the end, it just wasn’t enough. If anyone can ruin San Francisco’s unblemished record, you have to imagine Russell Wilson & Co. can do just that. Wilson has cemented himself as possibly the league MVP favorite up to this point in the season and leads a Seattle team that is rarely ever out of any game they play. The 49ers have earned all the respect the writers and rankers are giving them, however, and they’ve been particularly stout at home where they’re averaging 35.3 points on offense (ranks 1st) and just 12 PPG on defense (ranks 2nd). The key injury to look out for here is with George Kittle (knee) but there is a pretty optimistic feeling that he will suit up. 49er fullback Kyle Juszczyk may also be back in the lineup after being out since week five. That would bolster an already dominant rushing attack and help boost the potential for both Tevin Coleman and Matt Breida. Something else to also keep track of -- the newly acquired Josh Gordon recently passed a physical with the Seahawks and is being evaluated on whether or not he will see the field on Monday.

Players to Consider:

Matt Breida

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

 As mentioned just above, with Kyle Juszczyk likely back and helping to open up running lanes for San Francisco, Breida’s floor and ceiling should be elevated. While Tevin Coleman will possibly be the more popular option out of the two, I’m liking Breida ever so slightly more for showdown GPPs. Among RBs with at least 50 attempts this season, Breida’s 5.3 YPC average ranks second in the NFL -- tied with Christian McCaffrey and Duke Johnson. He has evaded 26 tackles on 99 carries this season and when comparing him to Coleman, he is far more likely to bust open a long gain.

DK Metcalf

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

The 49ers allow the 5th fewest FPPG to opposing WRs but if they have to line up against Tyler Lockett, Josh Gordon, and DK Metcalf with Russell Wilson at the helm (and always a threat to run), then they’re going to have a very difficult time trying to cover all these guys for 60 minutes. Metcalf has shown to be one of the best offensive values in the 2019 draft and is outshining just about every other rookie WR this year despite being the ninth receiver selected. Metcalf’s 28% of his team’s targeted air yards is only 1.9% lower than Tyler Lockett’s and he is the clear go-to deep threat. Wilson can drop a ball on a dime better than just about anyone else in the league, so Metcalf just needs to convert on one or two of those big plays to rocket lineups up to the top of a GPP leaderboard.

Dante Pettis

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Jimmy Garoppolo has wasted no time establishing a strong connection with his new toy in Emmanuel Sanders. San Francisco is the most run-heavy team in the league, but if you’re taking a 49er receiver, you’re likely going Sanders (or Kittle). But Dante Pettis ranked third among 49er WRs last week, seeing 30% of the team snaps behind Sanders (95%) and Deebo Samuel (66%). He converted his lone target into a 21 yard touchdown after burning Arizona CB Patrick Peterson on a corner post. Pettis should line up out of the slot on many of his routes and in that case, he would be facing Seattle slot CB Jamar Taylor, who has been targeted on a lofty 30% of routes ran against him. It’s yet another highly risky play but if you’re looking for a guy who would likely be <10% owned on a single game slate, Pettis could be worth some consideration.

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Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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