Week 10 Primetime Preview | A Big AFC South Battle & Can Cousins Finally Win on MNF?

November 11, 2020

By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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As we barrel into week ten, the NFL brings forth a pretty decent trio of primetime match-ups. Not incredible… but decent. I'd say considerably better than several other weeks, at least! The best of the bunch should be this Thursday Night Football game which pairs up the two top teams in the AFC South with critical postseason implications on the line. The Sunday and Monday Night Football showdowns are a bit less appealing, but I could still envision both of those games turning out to be fairly entertaining -- particularly the NFC North game on MNF between the surging Vikings and skidding Bears. Let’s dive into it!

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

For anyone looking for some lineup construction tips and other strategies specific to single-game NFL slates, feel free to refer back to this ***Showdown Tips & Strategy Guide*** for some important info and advice!

Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titan (-2) | 48.5 O/U

IND: 23.3 implied points | TEN: 25.3 implied points

IND: 22nd in offensive tempo | TEN: 2nd in offensive tempo

To kick off week ten, the 6-2 Titans will host the 5-3 Colts in this vital AFC South showdown. Both teams obviously have postseason aspirations but are they actually contenders or pretenders? Whoever wins this one will have much more “contender” credibility as we move through the second half of the season. Defensively, we need to give the Colts the advantage as they currently rank 3rd in the NFL in overall DVOA, while the Titans are slightly below average at 18th. This will also be a significant pace-up spot for the Colts considering only the Dallas Cowboys play at a faster tempo than the Titans. On the flip side, the Titans rank out as the 3rd most efficient offense while the Colts check in at 22nd. It’s pretty easy to see why this game is virtually a pick ‘em but as of Wednesday afternoon, about 60% of public bets are coming in on the Titans to cover the two points (per actionnetwork.com). That’s likely where I’d place my money as well. I’d also lean towards the over hitting but I don’t say that with a ton of confidence.

Notable Offensive Injuries: TE Mo Alie-Cox (knee) - Questionable, WR Adam Humphries (concussion) - Out, TE Jack Doyle (concussion) - Out

Lineup Construction: With most match-ups that appear to be this even on paper, the obvious approach is the 3-3 balanced build. Behind that, I would favor a 4-2 (TEN-IND) build, since I am expecting the Titans to win… potentially by 7+ points. Any lineup favoring the Colts could be a decent leverage play in GPPs. So if I went with 20 lineups, I’d maybe create around five or six 4-2 (IND-TEN) lineups.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain/FLEX Selections: QB Ryan Tannehill*, QB Philip Rivers, RB Derrick Henry*, WR AJ Brown

*Preferred captain plays

WR Zach Pascal | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Pascal runs the majority (72%) of his routes out of the slot and the Titans have allowed the most fantasy PPG to the slot over the last eight weeks. Pascal has also played the most snaps of any Colts WR this season (77.9%). While some of that can be attributed to injuries within this Indianapolis receiving corps, you can usually expect Pascal to be out on the field for nearly every play regardless of how healthy the other guys are. Pascal hasn’t had an incredible ceiling game yet in 2020 but he does lead this team with 10 redzone targets (next closest is Hilton with six) and Rivers has sent at least six targets his way for three straight games. With the Colts pretty banged up at the tight end position, I would expect the 6’2” Pascal to be a key redzone target once again so I’m thinking he’ll have some legitimate touchdown potential against Tennessee.

WR Corey Davis | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Davis went catch-less on three targets last week but Ryan Tannehill also only threw the ball 21 times. I’d say we could look for a bounce back this week as Davis will draw a plus match-up with CB Rock Ya-Sin, who has not exactly had a great season up to this point. AJ Brown and Corey Davis are essentially WR1a and WR1b in this offense and while things do run through Derrick Henry, one or both of these guys could go off in any given game. In six games played, Davis is averaging 7.2 targets/gm with a touchdown in three games, along with a couple of 100+ yard performances. The game script could hurt Davis if the Titans get a sizable lead early, but expect him to be very involved if the Colts can keep this one close (or perhaps maintain a lead). Also, for a leverage punt play, maybe consider Kalif Raymond who is the boom-or-bust deep threat in the offense (17.92 yard aDOT).

RB Nyheim Hines | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

At this point, the Colts backfield appears to be a straight up three-headed committee. In week nine, the RB offensive snap count broke down as follows: Wilkins - 34%, Hines - 34%, Taylor - 31%. We may potentially see a similar snap share this week. Hines is of course the preferred receiving/3rd down back though he’ll be fairly touchdown-dependent if he’s to be an optimal showdown DFS play. But hey… Hines does have a pair of two touchdown games this season so it’s clearly in the realm of possibilities. Also, that cartwheel/backflip move he did in the endzone a couple of weeks ago was pretty sick.

Sunday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens (-7.5) @ New England Patriots | 44 O/U

BAL: 25.8 implied points | NE: 18.3 implied points

BAL: 29th in offensive tempo | NE: 20th in offensive tempo

It’s difficult to get too excited for this match-up and I don’t really believe we needed yet *another* Patriots primetime game. Though, any time Lamar Jackson is scheduled to play, it can always turn into some must-see TV. Jackson’s electric playstyle has taken somewhat of a step back up to this point in the season, but he’s still probably going to make a few plays in this game that will continue to question whether or not he is human. The odds of a shootout are not really in the cards here, as both teams move the ball at a slow pace. The Ravens also boast the 5th ranked defense (DVOA) while the Patriots check-in at 31st and damn near lost to the Jets this past Monday night. Neither offense has been particularly promising this season either (another strike against an offensive shootout) as the Ravens are ranked 23rd in efficiency (they ranked 1st in 2019), with the Patriots following right behind at 24th. The total for this game opened at 40.5 and has been driven up to 44 points but it seems the public is projecting a Ravens blowout as an overwhelming majority of bets (73%) are being placed on Baltimore to cover the spread. It’ll be interesting the see if Cam Newton and the ghost of the New England Patriots can make this a competitive game.

Also note: As of this writing on Wednesday, the forecast in New England is looking a little sloppy for this game. Temps in the 50s, 10-15 mph winds, and around a 50% chance of rain later in the game. The forecast likely changes between now and Sunday, but it could be worth monitoring.

Notable Offensive Injuries: QB Cam Newton (neck soreness) - Questionable, RB Damien Harris (chest) - Questionable, RB Mark Ingram II (ankle) - Questionable, WR Julian Edelman (knee) - IR, WR N’Keal Harry (concussion) - Questionable

Lineup Construction: The rare 5-1 (BAL-NE) “smash” build could be on the table but ultimately a 4-2 (BAL-NE) build seems to be the most viable. Both of these teams are rather frustrating, fantasy-wise, so I wouldn’t rule out an even 3-3 build either. Personally, I’m not really interested in any builds favoring the Pats here.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain/FLEX Selections: QB Lamar Jackson*, QB Cam Newton, WR Marquise Brown*, TE Mark Andrews, WR Jakobi Meyers*, Baltimore DST

*Preferred captain plays

RB JK Dobbins | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Baltimore leads the NFL in run play percentage (52.9%) but there are only a few backfields more confusing to figure out than this one. Obviously, Lamar Jackson is going to see his fair share of runs which always throws a major wrench into the mix. Also, if Mark Ingram (missed the last two games) returns from his ankle injury, the waters get even more muddled. But, for now, let’s assume Ingram sits another week. The rookie Dobbins has played 56% and 66% of snaps in the two games Ingram has sat out. He has carried the ball 27 times for 143 yards (5.3 YPC) in those two games as well, which came against the 2nd (IND) and 4th (PIT) best run defenses in the NFL (DVOA). The Patriots have ranked as the 31st most efficient run defense this season so if Dobbins can snag about 15 touches once again, he may prove to be an optimal showdown DFS play on Sunday night.

WR Isaiah Ford | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

You ever heard of the phrase “throw it against the wall and see what sticks”? This Isaiah Ford recommendation is sort of the embodiment of that phrase. WR Jakobi Meyers has emerged in recent weeks as the Pats top receiving option but they’re going to need others to step in and produce if they hope to keep this game competitive. Some may remember, New England acquired Ford in a rare intra-divisional trade from the Miami Dolphins about a week-and-a-half ago. This will be the first game Ford has been eligible to play in a Patriots uniform so it is unknown exactly how involved he will be to start with. He could see the field for a handful of snaps or he could step in and play 80+% of snaps immediately. Considering how depleted this Pats receiving corps is, I’m pushing my chips more on the latter scenario. Ford was primarily utilized out of the slot in Miami. If that is where the Patriots decide to use him, he may have one of the only positive match-ups against this stout Baltimore defense. The Ravens have allowed the 13th most FPPG to the slot this season, including the 3rd most FPPG in the last four games.

K Justin Tucker | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

As mentioned, the weather may be a little sloppy on Sunday and not all too ideal for a kicker, but Tucker is one of the best in the business so I wouldn’t worry too much. This could easily turn into one of those offensively sluggish games that produces just two or three touchdowns and a bunch of field goal attempts. Tucker has had a floor of 7.0 FP in eight games this season while averaging 10.4 FPPG. In a potential low total game like this one, kickers can often times end up as optimal DFS FLEX plays in showdown formats (though I would rarely look to put a kicker in at captain).

Monday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings (-3) at Chicago Bears | 45 O/U

MIN: 24.0 implied points | CHI: 21.0 implied points

MIN: 21st in offensive tempo | CHI: 17th in offensive tempo

Week ten wraps up with an NFC North showdown that carries some sneaky postseason implications. Both teams are looking to play second fiddle to the 6-2 division-leading Packers, but after starting the year 5-1, Chicago has gone on a three game skid. Meanwhile, after everyone wrote them off early, the now 3-5 Vikings are coming in off of back-to-back divisional wins over the Lions & Packers. They will now have some very winnable games coming up on the schedule, starting with this game at Chicago followed by a three game home stretch (vs. DAL, vs. CAR, vs. JAX). If the Vikings do in fact manage to keep up their momentum and somehow earn a postseason berth, I believe Dalvin Cook may end up deserving some legitimate MVP hype with the way he has played this season. In this game, daaaaa Bears will look to once again rely on their strong defense (4th in DVOA) while hoping to solve their offensive woes (28th in offensive efficiency). Meanwhile, the Vikings offense has been quite efficient on the year (ranks 7th) but their defense has been the epitome of average (ranks 15th). In the defense of their… defense, Minnesota has faced a pretty tough gauntlet of teams with quality offenses (Packers x2, Seahawks, Titans, Falcons, Texans). Initially, I wasn’t very pumped for this game, but after digging into it a bit more, my interest has grown significantly. That interest may die quickly after watching a couple Nick Foles-led drives but we’ll see how it goes. Also, can Kirk Cousins (career 0-9 on MNF) finally win on a Monday night????

Notable Offensive Injuries: (Maybe this one matters?) QB Mitch Trubisky (shoulder) - Doubtful, RB David Montgomery (concussion) - Questionable

Lineup Construction: I imagine Dalvin Cook is going to be 90-100% owned in all contests, and rightfully so. Barring injury, the chances he *doesn’t* end up as at least an optimal FLEX play is quite low. You can gain some leverage by fading Cook in certain GPP lineups but, to state the obvious, I definitely would not go in with a complete fade. So we’re sort of looking at what to do with the other five roster slots. This isn’t going to be a shocker, but 4-2 (MIN-CHI) and balanced 3-3 builds carry the most appeal to me and I’d say only about 15% (maybe 20%) of my lineups would be without Cook (which, even though 15-20% isn't much, I believe that would still be enough Cook-less lineups to provide some leverage).

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain/FLEX Selections: QB Kirk Cousins, QB Nick Foles*, RB Dalvin Cook*, RB David Montgomery, WR Adam Thielen, WR Allen Robinson*

*Preferred captain plays

WR Darnell Mooney | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

I’m actually feeling fairly confident in this Bears passing attack in this game. The Vikings were already giving up the 4th most DKFP per game to WRs this season and injuries to their secondary have begun to pile up. CB Mike Hughes was put on IR a couple of weeks back. Then in their week eight win over the Packers, the Vikings sustained injuries to three of their defensive backs: Mark Fields (punctured lung from an opponent's cleat! Ouch!), Cameron Dantzler (neck), and Kris Boyd (non-contact knee injury). While Allen Robinson is still the top dog in this receiving corps, the rookie Mooney seems to be making a case to be more and more involved as the season progresses. He saw a season-high 11 targets last week and has played on at least 81% of snaps in Chicago’s last three games. Mooney’s ceiling is largely hampered by Nick Foles, but if the touchdown luck falls in his direction on Monday, he should have at least a handful of receptions and decent yardage added on top of any potential score.

WR Justin Jefferson | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Jefferson is about as volatile as it gets at the wide receiver position, but if you catch him on a ‘boom week’ then you’re in business. Jefferson’s 34 catches on the season are just three fewer than Adam Thielen and the rookie’s 627 receiving yards outpace his veteran teammate by 147 yards. The two primary Vikings receivers will draw difficult match-ups with Chicago CBs Kyle Fuller and Jaylon Johnson, but if the Bears can manage to slow down Dalvin Cook, then Minnesota will have no choice but to go to the air.

WR/RB Cordarrelle Patterson | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

This is a bit of a deep dive but maybe we can walk down Narrative Street with Patterson, who played for the Vikings for the first four years of his career between 2013 and 2016. Even though, as of now, I’m assuming that RB David Montgomery will play this game there is always a chance he is forced to sit out. Perhaps another one of Chicago’s reserve backs would end up taking on most of the RB duties but Patterson’s role would certainly increase regardless. With Tarik Cohen shelved in IR for much of this season due to an ACL tear, Patterson has seen as many as seven carries in a game and as many as four targets/four receptions. He hasn’t exceeded more than 8.0 DKFP yet this season (which was last week) but Patterson may be worth some exposure as a contrarian GPP option, even if Montgomery suits up.

That will wrap us up for the Week 10 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate break down linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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