Week 11 NFL Primetime Preview | Time to Put Up or Shut Up

November 13, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

Welcome to the Week 11 LineStar Primetime Preview! Here we'll be getting a look ahead at the week's primetime games with a focus on the single game slates across DraftKings and FanDuel. On top of single game strategies and tips, you'll find game previews and some less obvious players to consider for your lineups! This newsletter is meant to be GPP oriented, so you'll rarely see any QBs, WR1s, or RB1s mentioned as those are always the more obvious players to roster.

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Single game “showdown” NFL slates are becoming more and more popular. As such, sites like DraftKings and FanDuel have been rolling out a wider array of contests with larger prize pools. Many may think that in order to win an NFL showdown GPP you simply have to ‘luckbox’ your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate. Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport, you do need a bit of good fortune. But research and intelligent game theory truly makes all the difference.

So, what are some determining factors that should affect your NFL showdown lineup construction?

1) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predictive game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat cheesy, but you really need to make your lineup tell a story. If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game which will be in catch-up mode. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type low-scoring affair, then consider rostering both defenses (one perhaps in your captain/MVP slot) with a kicker while trying to find the skill position player(s) who happen to score the game’s one or two touchdowns. There are plenty of other ways that NFL games ultimately play out, but those are just a couple of basic examples.

2) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, and RB1s. Think outside the box to find the guy whose snap counts have been rising or somebody else that is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs. Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be either overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to exceed the field by rostering him in 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure). If your player exposure is even to the field, you’re limiting the potential upside of your lineups.

3) Choosing the Right Captain/MVP

This one is quite obvious, but the 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain roster spot is extremely crucial in any showdown contest, but especially GPPs. Combine the aforementioned strategies with your own thoughts and predictions to determine what approach you’re going to take with the ever valuable captain position.

4) Leaving Some Salary on the Table

One of the better ways to ensure you have a more unique lineup is to simply not force yourself into spending 98-100% of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more) on the table may not feel like a ‘comfortable’ thing to do, yet is often times the optimal route to take. A good way to sort of back test this is to go on LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out optimal lineups from previous showdown slates.

Example: For week ten's MNF match-up between the Seahawks and 49ers, the most optimal lineup you could create on DraftKings only used $40,200 of the available $50,000 budget.

Now that we’ve covered some strategic angles, let’s get into these games!

Thursday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (-3) | 40.5 O/U

PIT: 18.8 implied points | CLE: 21.8 implied points

PIT Off. Pace Rank: 24th | CLE Off. Pace Rank: 18th

PIT PPG For/Against: 21.4/20.1 | CLE PPG For/Against: 19.0/24.6

Week 11 kicks off with an AFC North divisional match-up. There are many reasons to believe this could be a pretty ugly defensive struggle. Typically divisional games are lower scoring and it’s pretty well known that Thursday Night Football often produces games that end with <40 point totals. Both Pittsburgh and Cleveland also rank in the bottom half of the league in offensive pace and neither offense has been particularly prolific this season, largely due to lackluster quarterback play. This really feels like one of those games where you may want to leave a few thousand dollars worth of salary on the table. Currently there aren’t any major offensive injuries that should hold out key players. However, the Steelers offense gets a significant boost as James Conner is set to return to game action for the first time since week eight.

Players to Consider:

Kareem Hunt | DK: $5.8k, FD: $9k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

During their much needed week 10 win, the Browns wasted no time integrating Kareem Hunt into their offense for his team debut. Hunt played on 54% of snaps and while he carried the ball just four times (for 30 yards), Hunt caught 7-of-9 targets for 44 yards. Expect to see plenty of two RB sets moving forward in a Browns offense that has been in desperate need of some creativity and production. Cleveland ran 2+ RB sets on 45% of plays last week, which pretty easily led all teams in week 10. Nick Chubb (81% snap rate in Wk. 10) will, of course, continue to carry the bulk of the runs, but as the season continues to progress I would expect Hunt’s rushing numbers to continue to rise while consistently catching dump-offs and screens from Baker Mayfield who has struggled all season to throw the ball downfield.

JuJu Smith-Schuster | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.5k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★★

Typically I don’t highlight QBs, RB1s, or WR1s in these Primetime Previews, but you could make a pretty good case that there really is no true WR1 in this Mason Rudolph-led offense. JuJu has absolutely done enough to prove that he is the most talented wide receiver of this bunch, but defenses also know that and have been content with trying to lock him down and letting Mason Rudolph attempt to beat them with Diontae Johnson and James Washington. The Steelers are on a four game winning streak, so maybe opposing teams may need to rethink that strategy. Smith-Schuster lines up in the slot for 63% of his routes. While in the slot, he’ll be facing coverage from Cleveland nickel corner Eric Murray, who has given up a team worst 0.47 FP per route ran against him. JuJu still has the highest ceiling of all Pittsburgh receivers and after a lackluster season without Ben Roethlisberger throwing him the rock, I doubt a ton of people will be looking to pay the premium for him this week, much less count on him heavily in the captain’s spot.

Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST | DK: $5.2k, FD: N/A

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

This Steelers defense has simply been ridiculous. The early season Minkah Fitzpatrick acquisition is beginning to look like an incredibly sharp move, as he has accounted for multiple touchdowns and several more high-impact plays. The Steelers D/ST has three touchdowns in their last four games, which is something you can’t really count on. But, even if you take those touchdowns away, this defense would have still accumulated double-digit fantasy points in six of their last seven games. They’re simply getting sacks and turnovers in droves. Baker Mayfield has 13 turnovers on the season and has been the 7th most sacked QB in the NFL (25 sacks taken) so we could certainly see another stout fantasy performance out of this defense.

Sunday Night Football

Chicago Bears @ Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) | 41 O/U

CHI: 17.3 implied points | LAR: 23.8 implied points

CHI Off. Pace Rank: 20th | LAR Off. Pace Rank: 2nd

CHI PPG For/Against: 18.0/17.4 | LAR PPG For/Against: 25.1/21.2

This is a pretty odd game to decipher. The Rams have looked really, really bad on offense at times this season and that Bears offense is almost too difficult to watch most weeks. With just a 41 point total, Vegas isn’t anticipating a ton of offensive fireworks to pop off -- rightfully so. This is a crucial game for everybody involved, as both teams are playing third fiddle in their respective divisions with seven weeks left to play. On the injury front, Brandin Cooks is once again not expected to suit up and Bears lead RB David Montgomery has popped up on the injury report with an ankle injury -- he’s currently listed as questionable.

Players to Consider:

Note: Single game salaries for the SNF and MNF contests are currently unavailable at the time of this writing.

Tarik Cohen

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

It’s unclear at this time just how concerning the David Montgomery ankle injury is, but as of Wednesday he is only practicing on a limited basis. If I had to guess, I’m going to assume he plays. But, as 6.5 point underdogs, this could certainly turn into the sort of game script that would require the Bears to give additional usage to Tarik Cohen as the change of pace back who is far more dangerous catching passes out of the backfield. Cohen hasn’t shown a great ceiling this season, largely due to a lack of volume, so you’re really counting on him to bust a big play for him to really pay off. He does have multiple games this year with double-digit targets. If the Rams stout defensive front stuffs Montgomery or puts a ton of pressure on Mitch Trubisky, we could see another week where Cohen sees a healthy amount of check downs.

Robert Woods

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

The Bears have allowed the 6th fewest FPPG to WRs this season but if there is a weakness in the secondary, it’s on the right perimeter. The Bears have allowed the 8th most FPPG to WRs aligning on the right side of the field, which is where Robert Woods operates 52% of the time. Without Brandin Cooks available last week, Woods caught 7-of-11 targets for 95 yards. He also led the team with 113 air yards which accounted for 39% of Jared Goff’s air yards. Woods could be in store for another 10+ target day and I’d expect the Rams to outperform their lousy 12 point offensive performance from last week.

Taylor Gabriel

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Like the Bears, the Rams also struggle to cover the right side of the field. They’ve allowed the 2nd most FPPG to right perimeter WRs over the last eight games, which is where Taylor Gabriel lines up a team high 44% of the time. It’s tough to count on any receiver with Mitch Trubisky at the helm, but Gabriel has proven himself to be a viable secondary option behind Allen Robinson.

Monday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) @ Los Angeles Chargers | 52.5 O/U

KC: 28.0 implied points | LAC: 24.5 implied points

KC Off. Pace Rank: 11th | LAC Off. Pace Rank: 27th

KC PPG For/Against: 28.4/23.9 | LAC PPG For/Against: 20.7/19.4

The AFC West is wide open right now and this Monday Night Football game should bring plenty of excitement. This match-up currently carries the highest total of any week 11 game and, despite some struggles from the Chargers offense this year, this could certainly turn into a bit of a shootout. The Chargers and Chiefs are both coming off of close, disappointing week 10 losses so, as the second half of the season moves further and further along, motivation should be extremely high. A win by the Chargers would move them one game out of first in the division, meanwhile the Chiefs could make it more of a two man race with the Raiders if they prove victorious. After dealing with some injuries to key skill position players in previous weeks, both offenses will look to head into this one essentially at full strength. Should be a fun one!

Players to Consider:

Austin Ekeler

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

I really don’t see many scenarios where one of either Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Philip Rivers, Travis Kelce, Melvin Gordon, or Keenan Allen *aren’t* the optimal captain play, so I think you’re taking a risk by rolling anyone else out there in that spot. But as we all know, weird things happen on these single game slates, so I wouldn’t completely rule out a guy like Ekeler. Melvin Gordon is looking like his old self, after seeing 23 touches each of the last two weeks and finding pay dirt three times. However, if there’s a team that multiple running backs can succeed against, it’s the Chiefs. Kansas City allows the most FPPG to RBs and they’ve been torn up by receiving backs recently which, of course, aligns directly with Ekeler’s skill-set. Over the last four games, the Chiefs allowed 81 YPG on 6.3 receptions/game to opposing RBs. Ekeler can be expected to play on around 45% of snaps with potential for more work if the Chargers fall significantly behind. He’s scored touchdowns in three of the last four games and possesses a vital role in this offense, which won’t disappear despite how well Melvin Gordon plays.

Mecole Hardman

GPP Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Tyreek Hill got doused with 19 targets last week. Mecole Hardman? One. But he made the most of that one target, as he did his best Tyreek Hill impersonation topping out at 21.87 MPH and outran everyone to the house for a 63-yard score for his third touchdown in four games. In a Mahomes-led offense, no one needs crazy volume to put up a nice fantasy day. Hardman is still playing less than half the snaps that Demarcus Robinson is over the last four weeks, but Hardman is looking like he’s making his case for taking on a more significant role soon.

Hunter Henry

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Henry has as much multi-touchdown upside as anyone else in this game and he is averaging eight targets per game since returning from injury in week six. His six redzone targets in the last four weeks are also tied with his counterpart, Travis Kelce, in that span yet Henry will absolutely be cheaper and possibly lower-owned. The Chiefs have also allowed the 8th most FPPG to opposing TEs this season. Henry is probably my favorite contrarian captain selection to consider outside of the aforementioned studs in Austin Ekeler’s section above.

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Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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