Week 11 Primetime Preview | The Best Trio of Primetime Games this Season?

November 19, 2020

By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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Week 11 will feature one of the best sets of primetime games that we’ve seen all season. Thursday kicks off with an NFC West rematch between the Cardinals and Seahawks which carries some major divisional and postseason implications. Whoever wins that game could be positioning themselves into the driver's seat within that division. On Sunday night, the Chiefs will look to exact some revenge against the Raiders who, of course, provided Kansas City with their only loss of the season back in week five. Expect plenty of fireworks in those two aforementioned games, as they will possess the two highest implied totals of the week (and two of the highest totals of the entire NFL season). Finally, Monday Night Football will wrap up with what should just simply be a quality football game between two well-rounded teams in the Bucs and Rams. Both squads have a legitimate shot at making a run to the NFC Championship, perhaps even a Super Bowl berth.

Aside from simply playing showdown slates for these games, I’d be pretty interested in rolling out some full slate Thursday-Monday lineups as well. There are just so many juicy DFS plays within these primetime match-ups. Let’s dive right on in!

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

For anyone looking for some lineup construction tips and other strategies specific to single-game NFL slates, feel free to refer back to this ***Showdown Tips & Strategy Guide*** for some important info and advice!

Thursday Night Football

Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks (-3) | 58 O/U

ARI: 27.3 implied points | SEA: 30.3 implied points

ARI: 2nd in offensive tempo | SEA: 16th in offensive tempo

ARI: 9th in defense DVOA | SEA: 23rd in defense DVOA

Thursday Night Football has had a reputation of featuring some really ugly match-ups over the years, but this absolutely isn’t one of ‘em. And, really, many of these TNF games have been surprisingly entertaining this season. The first meeting between the Cardinals and Seahawks this season came back in week seven and provided us with one of the wildest games of the year. It was a game that seemed to have a little bit of everything and ended in a walk-off Cardinals field goal with 15 seconds left on the clock in overtime. When it was all said and done, 71 points were scored in that game. Clearly, Vegas is not looking to get wrecked by the over bettors as they’ve stuck a 58 point over/under on this bad boy, but currently, the majority of bets (59%) are still coming in on the over, per actionnetwork.com. I’d personally be a little hesitant to take that over currently. Teams tend to be much more prepared for one another when they face each other for the second time around. Each team should also be pulling out all the stops on defense considering whoever wins this game will likely jump up to being the favorite to win the NFC West division. Kyler Murray versus Russell Wilson is going to be an awfully entertaining rivalry for the foreseeable future and I can’t wait to see how the next chapter unfolds! There are a few key players who are currently listed as ‘questionable’ for this game. Their availability will need to be monitored leading up to kick-off.

Notable Offensive Injuries: RB Chris Carson (foot) - Questionable, RB Kenyan Drake (ankle) - Questionable, WR Tyler Lockett (knee) - Questionable, RB Travis Homer (wrist/knee/thumb) - Questionable

Update: Per Adam Schefter, it is looking more and more unlikely that Chris Carson plays. This backfield may just be a complete mess.

Lineup Construction: 3-3 and 4-2 (both teams) would be the only builds I’d make for this game. In the NFL it’s always possible a relatively even match-up can turn into a blowout (see Bucs vs. Saints in week 9), thus making 5-1 builds ideal in showdown DFS contests, but I just can’t see that happening in this game, barring an early injury to either QB.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain/FLEX Selections: QB Kyler Murray*, QB Russell Wilson*, RB Chris Carson (if available), WR DK Metcalf, WR Tyler Lockett* (if available), WR DeAndre Hopkins*

*Preferred captain plays

WR Christian Kirk | Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Kirk is a borderline ‘obvious’ selection here considering he has five TDS and is averaging 19.1 FPPG over the Cardinals last four games. It seems the Cardinals have started utilizing Kirk as less of an exclusive deep threat, and rather more of a complimentary WR2 to DeAndre Hopkins (as they probably should have been doing all along). In weeks 1-4, Kirk’s aDOT (average depth of target) was 17.7 yards and he only caught 6-of-14 targets for 76 yards and a TD in that span. Since week five, Kirk’s aDOT has dropped to 10.4 yards but he has converted 31 targets into 21 receptions for 351 yards and 5 TDs. While his big play potential has taken a hit with the lower aDOT, the more high percentage targets heading his way have produced much more reliable fantasy outings. As many are probably aware, Seattle has given up THE most FPPG to WRs this year and Kirk caught a pair of TDs against them back in week seven. He may have another strong outing in him against on Thursday as the Seahawks do whatever they can to stop Hopkins.

RB Chase Edmonds | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Even if Kenyan Drake suits up in this game, Edmonds will carry some FLEX appeal. He has proven to be the much more capable receiving back and if this game turns into another shootout, expect anywhere from five to eight targets for Edmonds. He was a dynamic piece of the offense against Seattle in their last meeting when he caught 7-of-7 targets for 87 yards and added an additional 58 yards on the ground on just five carries. If Drake sits, you can consider him a five star salary saving captain play, but he should be highly playable regardless. The Seahawks have given up the 5th most receptions to RBs this season (6.4 rec/gm).

WR Freddie Swain | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

This is more of a deep dive and really only viable if Tyler Lockett is forced to miss this game with that knee injury -- otherwise Swain is nothing more than a boom/bust dart throw. In Lockett’s theoretical absence, the most obvious boost will come to David Moore, so absolutely consider him in that scenario (and as a cheap flex option in general). [Continuing the theoretical absence of Lockett] With DK Metcalf likely drawing difficult shadow coverage from Patrick Peterson, some other Seahawks receivers may need to step up. Swain played on 37% of snaps last week and caught 3-of-4 targets for 37 yards. The rookie has played on 32.5% of snaps this season so he’s still seeing time on the field regardless of injuries to guys ahead of him on the depth chart. Swain also has some 4.4 speed to him and would need just a big play or two to pay off that $1,200 salary.

Sunday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs (-7) @ Las Vegas Raiders | 57 O/U

KC: 32.0 implied points | LV: 25.0 implied points

KC: 14th in offensive tempo | LV: 28th in offensive tempo

KC: 14th in defense DVOA | LV: 21st in defense DVOA

A month and a half ago, the Raiders did what no other team has done this season; they beat the Chiefs. There isn’t much faith from the general public that the Raiders will be able to replicate that same success. Currently, 65% of bets and nearly 90% of the total money wagered is going towards the Chiefs to cover seven points in this one. Considering Kansas City is winning by an average margin of 11.5 PPG, it’s not a stretch to assume they cover here. However, the Raiders are one of those wildcard teams in the NFL where you can never really know what they’re going to do week-to-week. They’re currently riding a three game win streak and are averaging 28.3 PPG (8th most) on the year. At the same time, the Chiefs enter off of their bye and have had two weeks to figure out how exactly they’re going to seek their revenge on the Raiders. If Las Vegas keeps up their current momentum, we could see plenty of offensive fireworks in this game which will take place inside of the Raiders new domed Allegiant Stadium. In four Raider home games this season, we’ve seen point totals of 58, 53, 65, and 49 points. With Patrick Mahomes & Co. coming out to Sin City, another high-scoring affair will be for this AFC West showdown.

Notable Offensive Injuries: WR Mecole Hardman (C19) - TBD, WR Sammy Watkins (hamstring) - Questionable, RB Jalen Richard (chest) - Questionable

Lineup Construction: 4-2 (KC-LV) may be the most favorable build but 3-3 looks just fine to me as well. There’s an outside chance that 5-1 (KC-LV) comes into play in a Chiefs blowout scenario. If I were to create 20 showdown lineups, rolling out three to five lineups with the Chiefs 5-1 blowout build constructed likely provides quite a bit of leverage in GPPs.

Players to Consider:

Obvious Captain/FLEX Selections: QB Patrick Mahomes*, QB Derek Carr*, RB Josh Jacobs, RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire, TE Travis Kelce*, TE Darren Waller, WR Tyreek Hill*

*Preferred captain plays

WR Henry Ruggs III | Captain Rating: **

Ya can’t get more boom-or-bust than Ruggs. He has just 13 catches on 25 targets this season for 251 yards (19.3 YPC) and a score. He’s only averaging 3.6 targets/gm, but he has one of the highest aDOTs in the league at 18.3 yards. Ruggs’ best fantasy outing in his rookie campaign did come against the Chiefs in week five when he caught two passes for 118 yards and a touchdown. You have to assume that if the Raiders hope to win this game, they will need more receivers to contribute other than tight end Darren Waller, Nelson Agholor, and Hunter Renfrow -- all three are averaging under 50 YPG. Ruggs probably needs to come through with a big play or two, as he did in week five, for Las Vegas to pull off another unlikely upset.

WR Demarcus Robinson | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

From one volatile receiver to another. As of two days ago, Mecole Hardman still isn’t practicing with the team and remains on the COVID-19/reserve list. If he does indeed sit out this game, you can likely give a sizable fantasy boost to Demarcus Robinson. Even more so if Sammy Watkins continues to be sidelined with his hamstring injury. Robinson has scored in back-to-back games entering this week and his 63.7% snap rate actually ranks second among Chiefs receivers this season behind Tyreek Hill (85.9%). To state the obvious, any receiver who is on the same field with Patrick Mahomes for the majority of plays will have the potential to be a fantasy-relevant asset.

Chiefs DST | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

If this game happens to go down the pathway of a blowout, would anyone be *that* surprised? Probably not. The Chiefs DST already has a couple of games this season where they netted 20+ fantasy points. In the previous nine meetings between these two teams, the Chiefs DST has scored double digit fantasy points on six occasions. I wouldn’t consider them a lock to do that this Sunday night, but if you’re running a 5-1 Chiefs ‘smash’ build, I’d probably look to get this defense in the lineup as a salary saving option.

Monday Night Football

Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) | 47.5 O/U

LAR: 22.0 implied points | TB: 25.5 implied points

LAR: 18th in offensive tempo | TB: 12th in offensive tempo

LAR: 8th in defense DVOA | TB: 1st in defense DVOA

As I said in the intro, this Monday Night Football match-up sets up as just a quality football game in general. Maybe we don’t get the same sort of shootout upside here which exists in the other two primetime games, but both of these teams are just solid on both sides of the ball and appear to be fairly evenly matched. As you can see listed above, both rank inside the top 10 in defensive DVOA, but these are highly efficient offenses as well. The Rams check in at 5th in offensive efficiency, the Bucs 8th. A win here does quite a bit for each teams postseason outlook in the NFC side of the playoffs. It’ll be fun to see what Sean McVay and the Rams can cook up against Brady and the Bucs. Also, barring any mid-week injuries, both teams are coming in to week 11 in great health.

Notable Offensive Injuries: None

Lineup Construction: Much like the TNF game, I’d really only be looking at 3-3 and 4-2 (both teams) builds in this game. I don’t see many scenarios where a major blowout would cause 5-1 builds to be viable.

Players to Consider:

Obvious captain/FLEX selections: QB Tom Brady*, QB Jared Goff, RB Ronald Jones, WR Cooper Kupp*, WR Mike Evans, WR Chris Godwin*, TE Rob Gronkowski*, Both Defenses

*Preferred captain plays

WR Josh Reynolds | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

It’s a difficult match-up for receivers on both sides of the field -- slightly less so for Rams receivers. Tampa Bay allows the 10th fewest FPPG to WRs, but Reynolds may be a worthy cheap flex play to roll out regardless. He has seen his targets increase in each of the last four games:

Week 6: 5 tgt, 2 rec, 45 yds, 1 TD, 12.5 DKFP

Week 7: 8 tgt, 4 rec, 52 yds, 1 TD, 15.2 DKFP

Week 8: 9 tgt, 4 rec, 44 yds, 0 TD, 8.4 DKFP

Week 10: 10 tgt, 8 rec, 94 yds, 0 TD, 17.4 DKFP

The 32 targets actually represent a 20% target share, which is second on the team in that span behind Cooper Kupp (41 tgt, 25% tgt share). Kupp and Robert Woods have better ceilings, but you could argue that Reynolds’ fantasy floor is fairly similar to those two guys these days. We’ll just have to see how Jared Goff distributes the ball versus this tough Bucs D. The Bucs do give up the 3rd most FPPG to WRs on the left perimeter, which is where Reynolds runs 51% of his routes.

WR Antonio Brown | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

As mentioned, it’s probably going to be tough sledding for all the receivers in this game. The Rams secondary has been absolutely dominant and is giving up THE fewest FPPG to WRs. However, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown on the field all at once with some Gronk thrown into the mix, Jalen Ramsey & company may have their fair share of issues covering everyone. AB obviously picked a terrible week to debut with the Bucs a couple of weeks ago when they fell to the Saints by a score of 3-38. Last week against Carolina, even though Brown played just 49% of snaps, he brought in 7-of-8 targets for 69 yards and looked much more in tune with this Tom Brady-led offense. Even if the Rams don’t give up a ton of yardage or TDs, Brown could be a useful PPR option as he has been for much of his career.

RB Darrell Henderson Jr. | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Sheesh, good luck figuring out either one of these backfields. The Rams arguably have the bigger headache of an RBBC to deal with, considering they involve three backs quite heavily, as opposed to two primary backs for the Bucs. In week 10, the Rams gave Malcolm Brown 41% of offensive snaps, Henderson 33%, and the rookie Cam Akers 26%. Both Brown and Henderson seem locked in as the preferred goal line options, so they’re the two guys I’d focus on for this week (but I say that now, then Akers will have his breakout game). Henderson does have three games over 20 DKFP this season and his 4.8 YPC are more than both Brown (4.3 YPC) and Akers (4.1 YPC) so he’ll get the nod for me over the other guys. Tampa Bay’s defense is great on the ground (9th fewest FPPG to RBs) but I do believe the Rams can get in one or two touchdowns on the ground in this game.

That will wrap us up for the Week 11 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate break down linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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