Week 12 NFL Primetime Preview | A Trio of Pivotal Match-Ups

November 20, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

Welcome to the Week 12 LineStar Primetime Preview! Here we'll be getting a look ahead at the week's primetime games with a focus on the single game slates across DraftKings and FanDuel. On top of single game strategies and tips, you'll find game previews and some less obvious players to consider for your lineups! This newsletter is meant to be GPP oriented, so you'll rarely see any QBs, WR1s, or RB1s mentioned as those are always the more obvious players to roster.

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Single game “showdown” NFL slates are becoming more and more popular. As such, sites like DraftKings and FanDuel have been rolling out a wider array of contests with larger prize pools. Many may think that in order to win an NFL showdown GPP you simply have to ‘luckbox’ your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate. Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport, you do need a bit of good fortune. But research and intelligent game theory truly makes all the difference.

So, what are some determining factors that should affect your NFL showdown lineup construction?

1) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predictive game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat cheesy, but you really need to make your lineup tell a story. If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game which will be in catch-up mode. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type low-scoring affair, then consider rostering both defenses (one perhaps in your captain/MVP slot) with a kicker while trying to find the skill position player(s) who happen to score the game’s one or two touchdowns. There are plenty of other ways that NFL games ultimately play out, but those are just a couple of basic examples.

2) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, and RB1s. Think outside the box to find the guy whose snap counts have been rising or somebody else that is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs. Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be either overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to exceed the field by rostering him in 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure). If your player exposure is even to the field, you’re limiting the potential upside of your lineups.

3) Choosing the Right Captain/MVP

This one is quite obvious, but the 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain roster spot is extremely crucial in any showdown contest, but especially GPPs. Combine the aforementioned strategies with your own thoughts and predictions to determine what approach you’re going to take with the ever valuable captain position.

4) Leaving Some Salary on the Table

One of the better ways to ensure you have a more unique lineup is to simply not force yourself into spending 98-100% of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more) on the table may not feel like a ‘comfortable’ thing to do, yet is often times the optimal route to take. A good way to sort of back test this is to go on LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out optimal lineups from previous showdown slates.

Example: For week eleven's SNF match-up between the Bears and Rams, the most optimal lineup you could create on DraftKings only used $41,200 of the available $50,000 budget.

Now that we’ve covered some strategic angles, let’s get into these games!

Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans (-4) | 45.5 O/U

IND: 20.8 implied points | HOU: 24.8 implied points

IND Off. Pace Rank: 17th | HOU Off. Pace Rank: 15th

IND PPG For/Against: 22.7/22.6 | HOU PPG For/Against: 24.5/23.2

If you saw the Adam Schefter tweet posted at the top of the page, this is a rare primetime slate that features three games between six winning teams. Week 12 kicks off with an AFC South match-up between the Colts and Houston, both carrying 6-4 records. The last time these two teams faced each other came in week 7, which saw the Colts come up victorious by a score of 30-23, which gave the Texans their only divisional loss. Needless to say, winning this game will provide a significant boost to either team’s playoff hopes. The injury bug has bitten both offenses, but it has taken a bigger chunk out of the Colts. RB Marlon Mack has already been ruled out this week along with WR Paris Campbell, while TY Hilton and Eric Ebron are both listed as questionable. Will Fuller V is the only notable Texans offensive weapon whose week 12 status is of concern. He is currently being viewed as a game-time decision. The Colts, regardless of their injuries, could absolutely still come out of this one with a win. They’ve been a surprisingly scrappy team all season and all four of their losses have been by a single score margin. I believe this one will end up being an entertaining back-and-forth battle.

Players to Consider:

Jordan Wilkins | DK: $6.6k, FD: $6.5k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

With this Wilkins suggestion, I’m looking to snag some potential ownership leverage against people who think he may not be a major factor. Jonathan Williams filled in very well when Marlon Mack went down last week, rushing 13 times for 116 yards (8.9 YPA) while catching a 31 yard pass. Wilkins was inactive due to an ankle injury, so he wasn’t able to factor into the available workload left behind with the Marlon Mack hand injury. There’s no definitive word on how this backfield will allocate carries moving forward. If I had to guess, some sort of 40/40/20 split of RB touches will be divided up between Williams, Wilkins, and Hines -- but either of the former two guys could easily run away with the bulk of the touches. Wilkins is a second year RB who has looked really solid in his back-up role. He has averaged 5.8 YPC on 87 rushing attempts while catching 20-of-22 targets for 112 yards (4.5 YPC). I’m not knocking on Williams’ ability by any means. But Wilkins simply has the longer, more proven track record and I assume he’ll go more overlooked than he should after the big fill-in game that Williams just had.

Zach Pascal | DK: $8k, FD: $9k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Regardless of whether TY Hilton suits up, Pascal should be on the field for over 90% of the snaps. The Colts run 2+ WR sets on 92% of plays this season and with Paris Campbell ruled out and Chester Rodgers only really working out of the slot, Pascal will be left as one of two primary perimeter receivers. This should be a strong match-up for both Pascal and Hilton (if he plays) as Houston has allowed the 7th most FPPG to perimeter WRs this year. If Hilton sits, Marcus Johnson (DK: $4.2k, FD: $8.5k) is the likely candidate to fill in as the other outside receiver on most snaps. Pascal has had a 98% snap count in the last four weeks, so his involvement is virtually solidified.

Duke Johnson | DK: $5k, FD: $10.5k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

The Colts defensive front is very strong and they’ve allowed the 7th fewest FPPG to RBs this season. Carlos Hyde is due to see the bulk of the early down work but don’t be shocked if Duke Johnson turns out to have the more productive fantasy day, primarily from catching passes out of the backfield. The Colts may be limiting RB production on the ground, but they’ve allowed 9.3 receptions/game to the position over their last four games. Also, sure it may be on limited work, but Duke Johnson ranks 2nd in the NFL with a 5.5 yards/carry average (min. 50 attempts) this season. He’s not a 15+ carry sort of back but he’ll likely still get 5-10 rushes with a chance to catch 5+ passes.

Sunday Night Football

Green Bay Packers @ San Francisco 49ers (-3) | 46.5 O/U

GB: 21.8 implied points | SF: 24.8 implied points

GB Off. Pace Rank: 30th | SF Off. Pace Rank: 26th

GB PPG For/Against: 25.0/20.5 | SF PPG For/Against: 29.5/15.5

Another quality match-up here between two teams who have a combined 17-3 record. These are arguably two of the top five or six teams in the NFL, with many ranking the 49ers first overall in their personal power rankings. It’s difficult to argue against that, as they appear to be one of the most complete teams in the league, with the 2nd ranked offense and 2nd ranked defense. However, as all football fans know, if you ever count Aaron Rodgers out of a game, you’ll often fall on the wrong side of history. San Francisco is also banged up on the offensive side. George Kittle, Emmanuel Sanders, Deebo Samuel, Robbie Gould, and Matt Breida are all carrying ‘questionable’ tags into week 12 and, as of Wednesday, none of those guys are practicing. There’s still plenty of time for all four players to get some full practices in before Sunday, but I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two of those guys are held out of this game. Meanwhile, the Packers are coming in fresh out of their bye week essentially at full health, with just back-up TE Robert Tonyan and a couple of defensive guys being listed as questionable. These two teams don’t exactly push the ball at a very fast rate, but I fully expect this to be another closely contested back-and-forth contest similar to the one we’ll see Thursday night.

Players to Consider:

Note: Single game salaries for SNF and MNF are unavailable at the time of this writing on Wednesday.

Allen Lazard

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

It’s no secret that Davante Adams is the target monster in this Packers receiving corps, but even with Adams returning to the starting lineup for their last two games, Lazard has continued to have a decent role. He has played on just under 50% of snaps in those two games while garnering 10 targets. When he is on the field, the 6’5” Lazard would represent a major height mismatch when running routes against 5’11” perimeter CB Emmanuel Moseley. Considering Jimmy Graham has developed some stone hands this season (77.1% true catch rate, ranks 28th among TEs), Lazard could prove to be a valuable redzone threat for Aaron Rodgers. A 5/50/1 sort of stat line is very reasonable for Lazard, especially if the Packers end up playing from behind on the scoreboard.

Kendrick Bourne

GPP Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

There isn’t a great chance that Bourne ends up being the optimal captain selection, especially on FanDuel where you typically just play one of the obvious guys since there isn’t a 1.5x salary increase like DraftKings imposes in their showdown contests. But Bourne has scored in three consecutive games and the two guys ahead of him on the depth chart, Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel, are both heading into the week a bit hobbled (alongside TE George Kittle). Even if those guys suit up, Bourne should still see around a 50% snap rate. It’s always a gamble rostering any pass catcher on the 49ers, who run the ball on 50.9% of plays (2nd most in NFL) but if you’re looking for a lotto ticket pick, Bourne could be the guy.

Raheem Mostert

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

This GPP recommendation pretty much requires Matt Breida to sit out for a second consecutive week. Mostert had a very forgettable game in week 11 -- 6 carries for 13 yards (2.2 YPA) and caught 2-of-3 targets for 14 yards -- but he played on 38 offensive snaps (49% snap rate). That is the exact same amount of snaps that Tevin Coleman received. The best way to attack the Packers defense is on the ground, as they allow the 3rd most FPPG to RBs. If Mostert manages to snag about a dozen touches, he could very easily pay off on Sunday night.

Monday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens (-3) @ Los Angeles Rams | 46.5 O/U

BAL: 24.8 implied points | LAR: 21.8 implied points

BAL Off. Pace Rank: 32nd | LAR Off. Pace Rank: 3rd

BAL PPG For/Against: 34.1/19.6 | LAR PPG For/Against: 24.3/19.8

We get spoiled yet again with another juicy match-up out in LA. Watching Lamar Jackson play football is one of the most entertaining things going in American sports right now and he is making a strong case to be the favorite to win league MVP honors. This is also a major “pace up” spot for the Ravens, as (shown above) the Rams run their offense with the 3rd fastest tempo in the NFL (BAL: 32nd). Road games also haven’t had a detrimental effect on this Ravens offense, as they’re averaging a whopping 38.4 PPG on the road this season. With all that said, this is still a game with just a three point spread. That hyped up Rams offense may be losing some steam after scoring 17 points or fewer in three of their last five games, but some positive regression is likely due. One boost for Rams is that Brandin Cooks (concussion) is expected to return this week. However, they could be without Robert Woods as he is dealing with a personal family matter. No timetable has been disclosed on his future availability, so monitor that closely as we head into Monday night. Baltimore is essentially going into week 12 at full strength, so no major injuries to note on that side of the ball. Can’t wait for this one!

Players to Consider:

Brandin Cooks

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

I don’t mind rolling Cooks out in his first game back in a month, especially if Robert Woods isn’t back with the team by Monday. Woods’ ranks 2nd on the team with a 20% target share, so Cooks’ looks should get a pretty obvious bump. With how prolific Baltimore’s offense is, the Rams could very easily find themselves trailing by multiple scores and, assuming Jared Goff doesn’t wet the bed again, Cooks will be the primary big play threat. His 14.0 yard aDOT (average depth of target) leads the team this season.

Marquise Brown

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

‘Hollywood’ Brown has yet to follow up his NFL debut performance (147 yards, 2 TDs) with a similar performance but his upside in this offense still exists. His 21% target share is second on the team behind TE Mark Andrews (24%) and he has a deep 12.3 yard aDOT, which means he doesn’t necessarily need 10+ targets in order to turn in a huge day. He’ll likely draw shadow coverage from Jalen Ramsey, but that doesn’t concern me much (I personally think Ramsey is overrated). The Rams have allowed the 3rd most FPPG to perimeter receivers over the last four weeks, which is where Brown runs 62% of his routes.

Baltimore Ravens D/ST

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

This Ravens defensive unit has been on a tear, scoring 17.5 FPPG over their last four games. That was against teams led by Russell Wilson, Tom Brady, and Deshaun Watson. Jared Goff has not been on any of those guys’ level this year. He has thrown three picks and fumbled three times (lost one) over the Rams’ last two games, so if his struggles continue, the Ravens D/ST could easily find itself in the optimal lineup. There’s a decent chance the Rams have to go more pass-heavy than they already are. More Goff drop-backs could obviously lead to more interception and strip sack opportunities (and always boost the chance of a defensive touchdown).

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Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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