Week 12 Primetime Preview 📺 | An Unusual Week Under the Lights

November 28, 2020

By: @Ryan_Humphries | LineStar Chat: @N1TRO

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It’s another odd week on the NFL’s primetime schedule which will bring us a rare Tuesday Night Football match-up featuring the twice rescheduled Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore match-up. Let’s hope that game will now ACTUALLY play as scheduled. Before we get to that game, we’ll get an important game on Sunday night with playoff implications featuring the top two teams in the NFC North as Chicago travels to frigid Green Bay. We stick inside the NFC on Monday evening with a tilt between Seattle and Philly. At this point in the season, these are a couple of statement games for Green Bay and Seattle. Convincing wins could further solidify each team as legitimate NFC Championship contenders.

Note: The BAL/PIT lines above will be updated closer to Tuesday

Due to how the rosters are constructed for single-game NFL slates, this is more geared towards a DraftKings GPP approach.

For anyone looking for some lineup construction tips and other strategies specific to single-game NFL slates, feel free to refer back to this ***Showdown Tips & Strategy Guide*** for some important info and advice!

Sunday Night Football

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (-8.5) | 45 O/U

Implied Points | CHI: 18.3, GB: 26.8

Plays Per Game (Rank) | CHI: 64.4 (15th), GB: 62.9 (24th)

Yards/Game Allowed (Rank) | CHI: 340.1 (9th), GB: 344.3 (12th)

The Bears head into Green Bay on a four game losing streak -- a fifth consecutive loss would give the Packers a three game cushion in the NFC North. Perhaps the biggest storyline here is the return of Mitch Trubisky under center for Chicago. Whether or not he can spark some offensive output remains to be seen, but Nick Foles certainly wasn’t working. Since week four, the Bears averaged a meager 16.7 PPG, never scoring more than 23 points in a single game. I can’t quite get a beat on this spread, but I would lean towards the under hitting in this game due to the slower-paced nature of these two offenses. The Green Bay offense (30.8 PPG, ranks 3rd) versus the Chicago defense (20.9 PPG allowed, ranks 6th) will be the true strength on strength match-up to pay attention to. But ultimately this game will likely come down to whether or not Mitch Trubisky can extend drives and lead Chicago down the field with some level of efficiency. Aaron Rodgers is a tough dude to keep pace with these days, but it’s not impossible.

Notable Offensive Injuries: QB Nick Foles (hip) - Doubtful, Marquez Valdez-Scantling (Achilles) - Questionable

Lineup Construction: A 4-2 (GB-CHI) feels like the most favorable approach but if Trubisky can pull off some magic, maybe even the upset, the 3-3 neutral builds could be optimal.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets: QB Aaron Rodgers*, QB Mitch Trubisky, RB Aaron Jones, RB David Montgomery*, WR Davante Adams*, WR Allen Robinson II

*Preferred captain plays

WR Allen Lazard | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

After riding the IR for six weeks with a core injury, Lazard was understandably quiet in his return to action in week 11 against the Colts. He caught just 2-of-4 targets for 18 yards, however, he was on the field for 60% of snaps. That was the third highest snap rate among Packers WRs - Adams (95%), Valdez-Scantling (85%). MVS was a mid-week addition to the injury report with an apparent Achilles injury and didn’t practice Friday. If he is forced to sit out, Lazard would take over as the No. 2 option behind Adams. While the floor is currently in question, I love Lazard’s potential ceiling even if MVS suits up.

TE Robert Tonyan | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

The Green Bay WRs do have a tough task against a Chicago secondary that allows the second fewest FPPG to WRs. However, the Bears defense has been vulnerable to tight ends this year and have given up the 8th most FPPG to the position. Tonyan is a huge redzone target and should play around 70-80% of snaps. Decent shot at a handful of catches and a touchdown for Tonyan here. That could be enough to make him at least an optimal flex play in what could be a fairly low-scoring affair.

Bears DST | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

This is an outside the box contrarian play. Aside from a decent performance out of Trubisky, the only other way Chicago wins this game is if they pull off some game changing plays on defense, perhaps even luck their way to a defensive touchdown. Also, on the special teams side, Cordarrelle Patterson showed off the speed and elusiveness in week 10 when he returned a kickoff for a touchdown. Always a very, very low chance he could do it again.

Monday Night Football

Seattle Seahawks (-5.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles | 49 O/U

Implied Points | SEA: 27.3, PHI: 21.8

Plays Per Game (Rank) | 64.1 (16th), PHI: 66.0 (7th)

Yards/Game Allowed (Rank): 434.9 (32nd), PHI: 342.7 (10th)

It is sad that an NFC East team is going to make the playoffs. Maybe even sadder that the Eagles are currently odds on favorites to win the division (I'm rooting for the Washington Footballs myself). I recently saw someone bounce off the theory that Carson Wentz is playing so bad lately because at some point he switched places with Prince Harry and now I can’t un-see the uncanny resemblance. If there are actually infinite universes with infinite parallel realities, maybe we’re living in the one where that is actually what’s happening. If Seattle’s defense had a pulse, they might be 10+ point favorites in this game but unfortunately for Seahawks fans, they’ve been historically bad this season. They have been a bit more effective the last couple of weeks while holding the Rams to 23 points and the Cardinals to 21. Nearly 67% of bettors are placing their wagers on Seattle covering while 57% of bets are coming in on the under (per actionnetwork.com). I do agree that Seattle covers this 5.5 points, but I’m much more uncertain on the total. If Seattle’s defense continues to play like they have their previous two games, I do believe the under hits and the Seahawks win by multiple scores. If they revert to their early/mid-season defensive woes, Philly could easily find a way to stay in this game. This game could also be played in somewhat sloppy conditions as there is about a 50% chance of rain throughout the day and into the evening in Philadelphia on Monday.

Notable Offensive Injuries: RB Chris Carson (foot) - Questionable, RB Boston Scott (abdomen) - Questionable, RB Travis Homer (wrist/thumb/knee) - Questionable, WR David Moore (hip) - Questionable, TE Greg Olsen (foot) - IR

Lineup Construction: I might would risk a couple 5-1 ‘smash’ builds favoring Seattle in case of a blowout, but otherwise 4-2 (SEA-PHI) and 3-3 builds feel like the best approach.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets: QB Russell Wilson*, QB Carson Wentz (meh), WR DK Metcalf*, WR Tyler Lockett*, WR Travis Fulgham, RB Chris Carson (if active, otherwise sub for Carlos Hyde), RB Miles Sanders

*Preferred captain plays

WR Jalen Reagor | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Through five games in his rookie campaign, Reagor has provided a decent, but unspectacular, floor in PPR formats. If there is a game for him to post a breakout performance, it would be this week against Seattle. The Seahakws have infamously allowed the most FPPG to WRs this season and gamescript could lead a pass-heavy approach from the Eagles. Reagor has played on 88% and 94% of snaps in the last two games so seeing the field isn’t the issue. If Wentz can deliver some on-target passes, I like Reagor’s potential for a ceiling game.

TE Dallas Goedert | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

As bad as Seattle is against WRs, they’re actually pretty solid versus tight ends (6th fewest FPPG allowed). However, Goedert is rarely going to come off the field, if ever, in this game. He hit a 100% snap rate in week 11 which led to a 5/77/1 outing and 18.7 DKFP. Goedert will obviously also need Wentz to play competent football in order to find some success, but he’ll have another decent shot at finding the endzone on Monday night.

TE Will Dissly | Captain Rating: ★☆☆☆☆

Seattle uses a very narrow set of playmakers on offense so you mostly want to focus on the guys listed above among the “best bets.” But with Greg Olsen out for at least a few weeks with a foot injury, Dissly should likely see at least a 70% snap rate for the foreseeable future. In week 11, Dissly led Seattle tight ends with a 65% snap rate followed by Olsen at 61% (prior to his injury) and Jacob Hollister at 20%. The Seahawks haven’t relied much on their tight ends this year, so you’ll probably need to luck out with a touchdown if you roll with Dissly (or Hollister). But a score and 2-3 catches may result in Dissly being an optimal play at the end of the day.

Tuesday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers (N/A) | TBD O/U

Implied Points | No current line

Plays Per Game (Rank) | BAL: 63.0 (23rd), PIT: 65.9 (8th)

Yards/Game Allowed | BAL: 333.0 (8th), PIT: 306.9 (4th)

Fingers crossed that we make it to Tuesday without another postponement to this game! Even though this one could turn ugly quick, who doesn’t love the idea of an extra day with some primetime NFL action?! We’re left in the dark on how Vegas views this game, as the bookies have pulled their lines at the time of this writing. With all the COVID cases for Baltimore in mind, if I had to guess at this one I would lean with something along the lines of Steelers (-10.5) with an over/under of 43.5 points. The primary COVID-related absence for Baltimore this Tuesday will be Lamar Jackson but all-in-all, a dozen Ravens will be forced to miss this game, many being key offensive and defensive contributors.

Here's the timeline of the Ravens' Reserve/COVID-19 list additions this week:

Monday: RB Mark Ingram II, RB J.K. Dobbins, DT Brandon Williams

Tuesday: LB Pernell McPhee

Wednesday: DE Calais Campbell, G/C Patrick Mekari, G/C Matt Skura

Thursday: DE Jihad Ward

Friday: QB Lamar Jackson, FB Patrick Ricard, DT Justin Madubuike, LS Morgan Cox

It’s going to be an odd game and we did see a somewhat similar situation back in week nine when the Packers trounced the depleted 49ers (due to both injuries and COVID issues) on Thursday Night Football. On top of everything else, this game may be played in cold, foggy conditions with a chance of snow and ~15 mph winds.

Notable Offensive Injuries: All Ravens COVID cases listed above, TE Mark Andrews (thigh) - Questionable

Lineup Construction: It’s hard not to see some potential in a 5-1 (PIT-BAL) smash build considering Pittsburgh could have this game well in hand from start to finish. But most of my builds will likely favor a 4-2 (PIT-BAL) approach.

Players to Consider:

Best Bets: QB Ben Roethlisberger*, QB Robert Griffin III, RB James Conner*, RB Gus Edwards, WR Diontae Johnson*, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster

*Preferred captain plays

WR Chase Claypool | Captain Rating: ★★★★★

Claypool is essentially an obvious “best bet” play at this point, but I wanted to highlight at least one guy within this very talented wide receiver trio. Claypool’s 17.1% target share trails both Johnson (21.6%) and JuJu (19.4%) but he leads the team with a 31% share of the total air yards and is the certified big play threat with a 13.29 yard aDOT (average depth of target). The sensational rookie already has ten touchdowns to his name and is a great bet to find paydirt at least once more on Tuesday night.

WR Willie Sneak IV | Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

We’ve seen Snead have a couple of big games this season-- one of which came against the Steelers in week eight when Snead caught 5-of-7 targets for 106 yards. Pittsburgh possesses what may be the best defense in the NFL, but their one weak spot seems to be against slot receivers. On the season they have given up the 8th most FPPG to slot WRs, and the 3rd most over their last four games. There is no telling who RG3’s go-to target will be but Snead lines up in the slot on 82% of routes, so he’ll draw the most favorable match-up against Steelers slot corner Mike Hilton.

Steelers DST | Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

The Steelers DST feels like another very obvious play, but you could get a little contrarian by slotting them in as your captain selection. Against a healthy Ravens team, they still managed to score 18 DKFP in week eight, so you have to love their chances at another stellar outing. By the time showdown pricing comes out on this game, I do expect DraftKings to have this defense priced up quite a bit. At a minimum, they’re a strong FLEX play to keep within consideration.

That will wrap us up for the Week 12 Primetime Preview! Be sure to check out the main slate break down linked in the header. Once again, you can find me on Twitter @Ryan_Humphries or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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