Week 14 NFL Primetime Preview | Manning Down the Fort

December 04, 2019

Written by Ryan Humphries - @NitroDFS | LineStar Chat @N1TRO

Welcome to the Week 14 LineStar Primetime Preview! Here we'll be getting a look ahead at the week's primetime games with a focus on the single game slates across DraftKings and FanDuel. On top of single game strategies and tips, you'll find game previews and some less obvious players to consider for your lineups! This newsletter is meant to be GPP oriented, so you'll rarely see any QBs, WR1s, or RB1s highlighted as those are always the more obvious players to roster.

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Single game “showdown” NFL slates are becoming more and more popular. As such, sites like DraftKings and FanDuel have been rolling out a wider array of contests with larger prize pools. Many may think that in order to win an NFL showdown GPP you simply have to ‘luckbox’ your way onto the podium. That simply isn’t accurate. Sure, to win any sort of GPP in DFS, regardless of sport, you do need a bit of good fortune. But research and intelligent game theory truly makes all the difference.

So, what are some determining factors that should affect your NFL showdown lineup construction?

1) Predicting Game Flow

Some of the best showdown DFS players excel in predictive game flow when constructing their lineups. It may sound somewhat cheesy, but you really need to make your lineup tell a story. If you’re rostering one team’s bellcow RB, if you believe that his team is going to be leading and attempting to control the clock by feeding him all game, then run it back with the opposing team’s passing game which will be in catch-up mode. If you’re predicting a sort of 16-10 type low-scoring affair, then consider rostering both defenses (one perhaps in your captain/MVP slot) with a kicker while trying to find the skill position player(s) who happen to score the game’s one or two touchdowns. There are plenty of other ways that NFL games ultimately play out, but those are just a couple of basic examples.

2) Ownership Leverage

With a limited player pool to choose from, it can be very difficult to find those one or two guys who explode in a game and put your lineup over the top. But on any given single game NFL slate, you know who the chalky plays will almost always be: QBs, WR1s/WR2s, and RB1s. Think outside the box to find the guy whose snap counts have been rising or somebody else that is further down the depth chart but can still play a key offensive role, especially if an injury occurs. Also, in any GPP approach, you want to try to be either overweight or underweight on players compared to the field. For example, if you’re rolling out 20 lineups and you believe a player is going to be around 50% owned, then determine whether or not you’re going to exceed the field by rostering him in 16 lineups (80% exposure) or bet against him by simply putting him in five lineups (25% exposure). If your player exposure is even to the field, you’re limiting the potential upside of your lineups.

3) Choosing the Right Captain/MVP

This one is quite obvious, but the 1.5x multiplier applied to the captain roster spot is extremely crucial in any showdown contest, but especially GPPs. Combine the aforementioned strategies with your own thoughts and predictions to determine what approach you’re going to take with the ever valuable captain position.

4) Leaving Some Salary on the Table

One of the better ways to ensure you have a more unique lineup is to simply not force yourself into spending 98-100% of your salary. Leaving $1,000 to $5,000 (or more) on the table may not feel like a ‘comfortable’ thing to do, yet is often times the optimal route to take. A good way to sort of back test this is to go on LineStar’s “Perfect Lineups” page and check out optimal lineups from previous showdown slates.

Example: For week 13's MNF match-up between the Vikings and Seahawks, the most optimal lineup you could create on DraftKings only used $44,500 of the available $50,000 budget.

Now that we’ve covered some strategic angles, let’s get into these games!

Thursday Night Football

Dallas Cowboys (-3) @ Chicago Bears | 42.5 O/U

DAL: 22.8 implied points | CHI: 18.8 implied points

DAL Off. Pace Rank: 4th | CHI Off. Pace Rank: 19th

DAL PPG For/Against: 25.8/19.7 | CHI PPG For/Against: 17.7/17.3

Week 14 kicks off with a pair of 6-6 NFC teams looking to strengthen their postseason chances. This one is interesting because, while Dallas may be favored, they’re coming into this week with a 1-3 record over the last month. Meanwhile, Chicago is 3-1 in that time. We could be looking at more of a defensive struggle as these two teams rank inside the top eight in scoring defense. But this is also a nice pace up spot for the Bears' offense, considering the Cowboys play at the 4th fastest pace on offense. Overall, the current 42.5 point total makes sense and, as of now, I’m seeing that 59% of bettors are taking the under to hit. Among noteworthy injuries, Taylor Gabriel (concussion) leads the way. He has already been ruled out for TNF while Dallas backup RB Tony Pollard (ankle) is currently listed as questionable. The Gabriel injury in particular should open up some potential value. More on that below!

Players to Consider:

Anthony Miller | DK: $7k, FD: $10.5k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

Miller may still be searching for his first touchdown of the year but he is still seeing some great volume lately. His 33 targets over the last three weeks equates to a team-leading 26% target share in that span. He has turned those 33 targets into 21 catches for 271 yards. With that sort of volume, eventually the touchdowns will come. WR Javon Wims (DK: $3.2k, FD: $5k) is going to be the value option in the Chicago receiving corps, as he is the leading candidate to continue filling in for Taylor Gabriel. Last week, in Gabriel’s absence, Wims played 89% of snaps and caught 5-of-6 targets for 56 yards.

Amari Cooper | DK: $9.4k, FD: $13k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Normally I don’t look to highlight the obvious picks like QBs, RBs, and WR1s on a team, but Cooper has been struggling a bit in the box scores and with an injury in recent weeks. Though he did put up a solid eight catch, 85 yard performance on Thanksgiving. Still, nothing spectacular. Cooper aligns on the right perimeter for just under 50% of his routes, so he should draw the most coverage from CB Kyle Fuller who covers that side of the field on 98% of his coverage snaps. Fuller is the most targeted Bears cornerback and allows the most fantasy points per route. After dealing with cornerbacks like Stephon Gilmore, Darius Slay, and Tre’Davious White in the last few games, this could be one of Cooper’s best games in a while.

Blake Jarwin | DK: $2.2k, FD: $6.5k

GPP Captain Rating: ★★☆☆☆

Hail Mary time with this one. In a game which may only feature three or four touchdowns, a big target like Blake Jarwin certainly isn’t the worst guy to punt. He’s also much more of a threat to bust off a 40+ yard play over Jason “Dad Runner” Witten, but that’s no secret. Jarwin should play on about a third of Dallas’ snaps (35% snap rate on the season) and he may be able to turn his (likely) three or four targets into some nice value if he manages to break off a long play or find his way into the endzone. Chicago has given up the 7th most FPPG to tight ends this season so that is certainly a point of weakness which the Cowboys can exploit.

Sunday Night Football

Seattle Seahawks (-1) @ Los Angeles Rams | 47.5 O/U

SEA: 24.3 implied points | LAR: 23.3 implied points

SEA Off. Pace Rank: 21st | LAR Off. Pace Rank: 3rd

SEA PPG For/Against: 27.4/24.4 | LAR PPG For/Against: 23.6/20.8

This one possesses both the closest spread and highest total of the three primetime games this week and it should be a good one. After struggling over the last month, the Rams offense had a nice ‘get right’ game against Arizona last week which produced 549 yards of total offense on the heels of a 424 yard passing day for Jared Goff. Meanwhile, the Seahawks held off a potential Vikings comeback on Monday Night Football and moved to 10-2 on the season. Vegas is apparently buying the Rams resurgence by marking the Seahawks as just one point favorites. Seattle has been very impressive on the road this year, going 6-0 in the process, so we’ll see what Sean McVay can cook up for them this Sunday. The only key injury to look out for here is the availability of Rams TE Gerald Everett (knee), currently questionable. In his absence last week, backup TE Tyler Higbee had a breakout performance while catching 7-of-8 targets for 107 yards and a touchdown. But the Cardinals have been torn apart by opposing tight ends all year, so don’t expect a repeat performance if Everett is forced to sit out a second consecutive game.

Players to Consider:

Note: Single game salaries for SNF and MNF are unavailable at the time of this writing on Wednesday.

Rashaad Penny

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

This does feel a bit like chasing points but things are trending in the direction of a split backfield in Seattle. In the last two weeks, Penny has played on 47% and 46% of offensive snaps while receiving 33 touches in that span. The three touchdowns in those two games are nice, but you obviously can’t count on those every week. With Carson’s fumbling issues sticking around throughout the season, it makes sense why Pete Carroll would want to turn this into a timeshare. Seattle runs the ball on 47.4% of plays (4th highest) so there are a decent amount of opportunities to go around. If this game happens to turn into a back-and-forth shootout, or if Seattle falls well behind, Penny is likely the preferred pass catching option over Carson.

DK Metcalf

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

The Rams have allowed the 9th most FPPG to perimeter receivers, which is where Metcalf runs 88% of his routes. The presumption would be that Jalen Ramsay would travel with Tyler Lockett for most of the evening in shadow coverage, leaving Metcalf to work against the less talented corners, Troy Hill and Nickell Robey-Coleman. There could be some serious debate on who is really the WR1 in this offense. Metcalf has just four fewer targets than Lockett and 27 more air yards on the season. Though Lockett has been a bit banged up and has been battling the flu as well. Regardless, Metcalf has proven himself to be a stud in his rookie season.

Cooper Kupp

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Kupp had a solid 6/65/1 outing last week but it has been a while since we’ve seen him put up one of those monstrous stat lines that were almost a weekly occurrence earlier in the year. Perhaps that changes this week. Kupp runs out of the slot for 71% of his routes and in their last four games Seattle has given up the 9th most FPPG to slot receivers. Meanwhile, they’re allowing just the 22nd most FPPG to perimeter receivers, so Robert Woods and Brandin Cooks may have a tougher go at it this week. Of course, nobody is going to have a remarkable day in this passing offense if Jared Goff reverts back to his awful play from weeks prior to last. Fortunately, he has typically been better at home in his brief career.

Monday Night Football

New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5) | 46 O/U

NYG: 18.3 implied points | PHI: 27.8 implied points

NYG Off. Pace Rank: 11th | PHI Off. Pace Rank: 16th

NYG PPG For/Against: 19.2/28.2 | PHI PPG For/Against: 22.8/23.7

Sure, that 9.5 point spread may indicate that this game may not be highly competitive but there is a major draw here: the (likely) return of Eli Manning as the New York Giants starting QB. Daniel Jones is currently sporting a walking boot as he deals with a high ankle sprain so he’ll be a long shot to play Monday and he could potentially be shut down for the season. So, here we go, we’ll see what Eli has left in the tank. If he intends to play football elsewhere next year, this is pretty much the start of his audition. While the Eagles can probably coast to a pretty comfortable win, I am excited to see if Eli can spark up some kind of Manning magic. Among injuries, aside from the one to Daniel Jones, Golden Tate (concussion), Evan Engram (foot), and Jordan Howard (shoulder) are all listed as questionable for Monday. Of those three, I believe Engram is the most likely to suit up after being sidelined since week nine. We’ll know more about all these guys later in the week.

Players to Consider:

Evan Engram

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

It’s always tough to trust a guy who has been on the shelf for over a month but we do know that Eli Manning loves targeting his big, athletic tight end. In Manning’s starts in weeks one and two, he threw Engram’s way 22 times which equated a team leading 24% target share in that span. The Eagles are tough against the position (9th fewest FPPG allowed) and guys like Sterling Shepard and Golden Tate were not available for Manning’s start in week two, but Engram is still going to be worth some consideration due to the historically strong rapport between himself and Eli.

Nelson Agholor

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★☆☆

The Giants have given up the most FPPG to slot WRs over the last eight games. Agholor aligns in the slot for 66% of his routes. While it may have been quite a while since Agholor has had a huge game, this is definitely one of the best match-ups for Carson Wentz and this Philly offense to exploit.

Philadelphia DST

GPP Captain Rating: ★★★★☆

Let’s assume the worst here for Eli Manning and say he just comes out looking completely washed up while throwing multiple picks and taking sack after sack. In that scenario, the Eagles DST is practically a shoo-in to land in the optimal lineup (on DraftKings -- sorry to the FanDuel players on this one). This Eagles defense has averaged 9.5 FPPG at home this season while allowing just 18 actual PPG and 270.5 total YPG. It’s definitely not unthinkable that they could completely shut down the Giants in this primetime match-up at home. Weather conditions could also be a bit sloppy in this one (~40% chance of rain throughout) which typically favors the defenses.

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Once again, you can find me on Twitter @NitroDFS or in the LineStar NFL chat by tagging me @N1TRO. Good luck this week!

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